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cptcatz

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  1. cptcatz
    Interesting geography note: if Fred goes due north it would hit the piece of land jutting out. But the models all show it making a slight turn to the northwest bringing it into the bend between Destin and Panama City. This track would give it another good hour or more of intensification.
  2. cptcatz
    Haiti is very prone to earthquakes and to tropical cyclones. Eventually you'll get them occurring close together. I can't see how one would cause the other to happen.
  3. cptcatz
    Recon found 52 knot flight winds and GFS is now showing a 995 mb landfall. I think the panhandle is gonna be in for a surprise.
  4. cptcatz
    Recon finding some impressive winds NE of the center. Interested to see what they say at 11am. Hurricane watches going up for the panhandle?
  5. cptcatz
    Grace doesn't seem to be gaining any latitude at all. Don't see how any of those HWRF runs of it getting north of Puerto Rico could verify. Looks like it could just cruise the Caribbean right into the Gulf.
  6. cptcatz
    Anyone know what rain totals are like in Cuba? I feel like intense convection has been sitting over Cuba for the past two days...
  7. cptcatz
    Can anyone explain what's going on with this structure? Will the storm drop one of these convection blobs or maybe will they start wrapping around each other and form an eye in the middle?
  8. cptcatz
    Interested to see what's happening in northern Guadalupe right now.
  9. cptcatz
    Looks like it's on a crash course for Antigua, should be getting good surface obs soon.
  10. cptcatz
    Looks like recon is going home without going through the biggest convection??
  11. cptcatz
    Why would they make that turn to the southeast? Wouldn't the wind directions point to the center being northwest of that turn?
  12. cptcatz
    Looks like the LLC might be right under the intense convection. I have a feeling we're gonna see some surprisingly big wind numbers when they find the center.
  13. cptcatz
    Recon is in. Will be very interesting to see what they find.
  14. cptcatz
    You can follow it here. They left from Aruba, probably have a couple hours until they get to the storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
  15. cptcatz
    NHC said in the 5am disco that there probably isn't one.
  16. cptcatz
    Best signal of the year so far from euro for a possible long tracker
  17. cptcatz
    This thing is a mess. I have no idea where the center is but the convection is moving due south. Can't see that being good for the structure.
  18. cptcatz
    It looks like all the bad weather is south of the center now. Unless the storm starts heading north I don't see south Florida getting too much.
  19. cptcatz
    Am I missing something? Looks like a hot mess to me.
  20. cptcatz
    Weird stuff going on with Fred this morning. Is it possible a new center could form south of Cuba? That would throw off all the models...
  21. cptcatz
    Well the 11pm advisory just came out... no hurricane watch, no additional tropical watches, storm still expected to pass south Florida as the weakest tropical storm categorized. But yeah, keep going with the red tagger.
  22. cptcatz
    Wait what? At 5pm the NHC forecasted Fred to be at 40 mph near South Florida with the bulk of the storm being on the west side of the state. Why would a hurricane watch be coming at 11pm for anywhere, let alone Broward County?
  23. cptcatz
    Convection is definitely slowly starting to fill in closer and closer to the swirl center. Still has a ways to go but if it keeps it up it could be a nice TS by the time it gets near southern Florida.
  24. cptcatz
    The swirl is clearly evident just west of Inagua, problem is there's no convection for hundreds of miles.
  25. cptcatz
    Aren't they doing basically what they did with Eta last year when it was over Central America?
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