cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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The eastern outflow is looking much healthier now than it did a few hours ago. Also does look like a tiny eye is forming in the last few frames.
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Man if this reaches cat 5 in the next ~12 hours that would make 5 straight years of a cat 5, and even more scary/impressive/sad would be 4 straight years of a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 intensity.
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Yeah I know the whole a broken clock is still right twice a day thing but the GFS-P was the only model that was consistently showing Delta developing into a significant hurricane in the long range.
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I'd assume most people would click the day to see a slightly more detailed description. Then they would see tropical storm conditions likely, and at that point they should look further into it.
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First thing I think of is the robot from the video game Sonic Adventure for Dreamcast.
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What's up with 92L losing all its convection?
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NHC now has the second wave up, first wave is up to 70%
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And yet the Euro continues to show zero tropical development...
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GFS-Para. A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge. That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.
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Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean.
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1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major.
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06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb...
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Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out. I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.
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Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...
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Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day. Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias. On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory? Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger. Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula.
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Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm. NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...
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Although way out in fantasy land, the GFS and the Para are showing consistent signs of a Caribbean storm forming first week of October.
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How about they just retire the greek letter and not use it anymore? What are the chances that enough greek letters are retired that they eventually run out of letters? I'd say zero.
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Any chance this ends up heading east towards Florida?
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The GFS and Para have been hinting at a Caribbean storm at the end of the month. The 06z Para shows it crossing Florida and riding up the east coast.
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Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust.
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I don't envy the NHC if/when they have to come up with a cone for this one...
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Xiomara? Is that even a name?
