cptcatz

and the Florida peninsula shield holds!

If you don't want a generator, this is a great backup. It's great for any other uses when you need high power in remote areas, but it's also nice to have in a power outage. If you're sitting in your car charging your phone, you can pop the hood and attach this to your battery for an outlet with 1000 watts which should be able to power a small fridge/freezer. I use it quite often as I often need to power some power tools where I don't have an outlet and much easier than lugging around a portable generator. https://www.homedepot.com/p/DEWALT-1000-Watt-Portable-Car-Power-Inverter-with-Triple-USB-Ports-DXAEPI1000/301887060?MERCH=REC-_-searchViewed-_-NA-_-301887060-_-N

Looks like GFS and Euro are in good agreement that the wave that rolls off Africa this Thursday will try to develop. Of course euro has it staying at TD/TS through the MDR while GFS has it getting to 952 mb. Looks like the ensembles have the stronger storms curving further north with the weaker tracks heading towards the Caribbean. Should be a good one to watch.

Signal is getting better...

18z GFS is the most bullish yet with a long tracking (albeit weak) MDR storm heading towards Florida

GFS coming in with the exact same thinking as euro

First signs of a signal coming from euro...

The long rage GEFS continues to show activity signals the second week of August

Some very faint signals on the GFS, GEFS, and Euro for something to form in the MDR around August 4-7. Not much but more than what we've seen in the past few weeks.

90L has fizzled but there's an impressive burst of convection north of Hispaniola.

Recon found a definite center with a small pressure drop right in the middle, but without convection overhead it's not gonna be named.

A severe storm just rolled through Boca Raton. Got a severe thunderstorm warning with a mention of a tornado threat but no specific tornado warning/watch. Even so, I just recorded these videos over my house of cloud rotation.

Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen. Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models.

90L has been designated and it's looking pretty juicy

Doesn't look like anything will come of this, and even if it does it will probably mean a rainy day for Bermuda.

Who cares about what they're x'ing? All it means is that they're keeping an eye on it and no one even knows except for the hardcore weather nerds who keep track of these things.

Can you explain the implications of this picture?

Yep. I was supposed to move here to Boca Raton on the day Irma hit. Luckily I was able to delay the move a week so I missed the storm but saw the damage which was pretty significant but nothing compared to what the models were showing a couple days prior having it move up the east coast instead of the west coast. Since then, we got nothing in 2018, then had the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin barreling down at us coming to a screeching halt and turning right before hitting us. 2020, the most active season on record (which the local media made sure we knew), gave us a hurricane warning from Isaias which ended up causing a brisk breeze, and big scary Eta which gave us a good soaking of some moderately flooding rain. I'm well aware of the balls we're dodging being I love to track hurricanes, but there are so many new people in Florida that have moved down in the past year or two who went through the false alarms of Dorian and 2020 and are not prepared for a real hurricane strike. Of course the old timers, especially those who have been here since 2004, let alone 1992, know what to do, but it'll be interesting to see complacent the newcomers are when something finally hits us.

We had the same thing happen in last year's thread, and then it started quick and didn't end...

Elsa was moving at 30 mph so those 75 mph observed winds would have been 50 mph if the storm was moving at 5 mph. Regardless, 75 mph sustained winds in a cyclone equals a hurricane.

Well good thing you don't make the call on these things. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.

Who cares what the aircraft recon showed? That's not the best way to classify a storm. There were surface observations that showed that the storm was indeed a hurricane. You can't argue with actual surface observations.

This post held up well forecasting Laura a month in advance.

Radar loop makes it look like it's heading directly for a Tampa Bay landfall.

Interesting satellite presentation right now. Looks like the convection near the center north of Cuba is really waning while the big blob south of Cuba is firing off. Will that affect the structure or future impacts?