cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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This Euro storm appears to be the same one the GFS has in the above post. Definitely now one to watch. Looks like it should be coming off Africa sometime this weekend.
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Laura really makes a great case showing why we can't trust the models 5+ days out. These were the GFS and Euro runs from this past Friday, exactly 5 days ago, valid today:
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Last two GFS runs show a long tracking MDR storm reaching the western Atlantic as a huge storm.
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Last night's 00z Euro shows a 1003 mb system in the Caribbean, today's 12z CMC shows a 1006 mb system near the Bahamas, the 12z ICON shows a 999 mb system near the Caribbean, and the 12z GFS shows an open wave. The global models have been terrible this year with cyclongenesis in the MDR, especially the GFS, so all of these models showing some sort of development of this wave seems like a pretty good indicator that it will develop. The 12z GFS and the past few Euro runs also show another wave developing behind this next one. Looks like this one should be pretty hefty coming off Africa. Don't forget the Euro showed run after run Laura falling apart in the Gulf...
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But Florida is obviously still in play. Who would have thought Texas would be in play with Laura based on this run only 6 days ago?
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I'd say Florida is well in play
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Euro showing possible Nana approaching the first week of September.
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I don't know, I've seen some weenies here saying that it could be close...
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Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life)
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Frances and Jeanne: "we made landfall in the same spot only three weeks apart!" Laura and Marco: "hold our beer"
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Euro and CMC have been showing two waves getting across the Atlantic first week of September and staying pretty low in latitude. Definitely something to watch.
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We got a lemon
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Finally some action on the CMC
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I think it's a combination of: - The forecasts calling for a hyperactive season - People are stuck at home bored because of this whole pandemic thing so we are trying to find any kind of excitement we can find - We are expecting big things because it's 2020 Speaking for myself, this has been the most boring summer of my life. My only excitement every day is waiting for the next model run.
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Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"
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What a weak storm to break Katrina's record. Watch we get to the Greek letters by mid September with nothing stronger than a cat 1...
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What are the chances it can pull a Jeanne?
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Is that how it is every year? I feel like this year is different because this summer sucked, no one traveled, no one was really able to do anything fun, everyone just stayed home doing nothing, so we're all just here waiting for some action.
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So are the models just that bad this year? The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing. Do you think it blows before those dates or after?
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From what I read, shear has decreased significantly and the only limiting factor now is dry air.
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06z back with the storm.
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9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify.
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If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months!
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There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however... 1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe 2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly... 3) It's 2020
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Hey wake up! GFS only 384 hours out which means this is gonna happen!
