cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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There's a pretty decent signal for another TC development next weekend. One ensemble member has a major going into Miami.
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It would have to get over quite a ridge to make it up to the CONUS
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January 1, 2021
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Looking back on some earlier posts, it's pretty amazing that the GFS got the dip and stall near the Keys pretty spot on 10 days in advance, even if it was way too bullish on the intensity.
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I'm not sure if it's just the westerly shear since we can't see the center but it sure looks like the convection blob is moving northeast and not north like the NHC indicated. I also second the recon question. It's a short flight from Lakeland and we can use some data. Wonder what they're waiting for.
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You can't declare that until every last legal ACE number is counted. There are still storms to be tallied and the NHC hasn't certified the totals yet. Plus I could see 2020 not conceding until we get the post-season analysis updates. This can be a long drawn out battle...
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98L classified in the eastern Caribbean. Could have three named storms in the next few days in mid-November.
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It doesn't help that basically every model has it fizzling out before ever reaching land again. Feel like it's gonna be another Marco from here on out.
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I just went into my bathroom and noticed water pooling on the floor, coming in from where the wall meets the floor. Ugh. Watching this next band closely on radar. As of now it looks like it may slide to the south of us but hard to tell with the curving movement.
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Just had an intense band move through Boca. Up to 4.62 inches of rain for the day and pressure is below 1008 mb.
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Getting the strongest winds of the day now in Boca Raton (4.5 miles inland)
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I got 1.56 inches yesterday and am up to 2.81 inches today. Not gonna get the 10-15 like some forecasts were calling but I can see getting another couple inches through midnight and then another one or two tomorrow on the backside, totaling 6-8 inches overall in three days.
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Looks like some big convection popping up just offshore of Palm Beach County which should roll through my house soon.
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Just took some video from my backyard in Boca Raton
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I think we can officially say Cuba has INTENSIFIED every storm that crossed it in 2020. What a year!
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70 kt wind just measured at flight level east of the eye
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Recon just arrived into the storm, hopefully they stick around for a while so we can see the rate of intensification.
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Boca Raton here, just clocked in 2 inches of rain since midnight on my backyard weather station. Recorded wind isn't that impressive but that's because my weather station is about 12 feet off the ground with taller hedges surrounding my backyard. Max wind gust recorded was 21.7 mph.
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So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.
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Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?
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Recon finding a stronger storm than we thought...
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Convection is blowing up this morning but it may be offset from the center. Recon should be in the storm soon so it'll be interesting to see what they find.
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Heavy rain bands will start moving through Saturday morning and might continue through Tuesday. That, plus 40-60 mph winds could easily knock trees over. Could be significant power outages.
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18z HWRF and HMON are also trending east with the HMON bringing it right into Biscayne Bay at 982 mb.
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No idea if there's a LLC but there's a tight vortex in the upper level clouds visible at 18N 82.5W. Anything to make out of that?
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