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cptcatz

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  1. cptcatz
    According to the last few Euro runs, it has Karen forming off the coast of Africa and getting huge in the mid-Atlantic and Lorenzo forming in the southeast Caribbean, both within the next week or so.
  2. cptcatz
    Looks like the big kicker is how far north it gets before getting to the islands.
  3. cptcatz
    I'm still kind of new to tropical weather tracking, but is it even possible to predict activity getting closer to the coast? I thought actual tracks of the storms were more luck as the storm played out rather than being able to predict well weeks or months in advance.
  4. cptcatz
    Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame. And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic. Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now.
  5. cptcatz
    Is it me or does 95L look like it's getting better organized with every frame on satellite?
  6. cptcatz
    12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian...
  7. cptcatz
    The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida
  8. cptcatz
    Very interesting. This soon-to-be-95L could be another big one then.
  9. cptcatz
    It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean. Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian? Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2. I'd love to see the models from mid-August.
  10. cptcatz
    He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party
  11. cptcatz
    The last two GFS runs now show the wave behind 94L becoming Dorian 2.0...
  12. cptcatz
    Now the 12z's Euro and GFS are in general agreement with a storm developing just north of Puerto Rico.
  13. cptcatz
    It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
  14. cptcatz
    If it can stick together and make its way into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, it could have the potential to really ramp up. I don't think Dorian caused any upwelling in those areas so the water should be prime for intensification.
  15. cptcatz
    Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling.
  16. cptcatz
    Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.
  17. cptcatz
    The worst possible track a hurricane can take?
  18. cptcatz
    ^Boston getting wrecked in 2.5 weeks But the tropics have really come alive! From right to left we have Tropical Depression 8, Invest 91L, Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Fernand, and Hurricane Juliette:
  19. cptcatz
    Just something to keep in mind... these were the model tracks for Irma 2-3 days before it made the turn:
  20. cptcatz
    Looks like we have two more waves coming off Africa that the Euro really likes developing over the past few runs...
  21. cptcatz
    Looks like a bunch of the recent GFS runs are all showing a significant system developing around the Yucatan/Caribbean around October 1. Still a ways out, should be interesting to see if the Euro picks up on it.
  22. cptcatz
    I don't get why there's so much hate against the media for overplaying the storm and not against the models. Up until a couple days before landfall all the models had this forecasted to hit as a strong cat 4. All the media was doing was warning the public. The models ended up being wrong.
  23. cptcatz
    Wow 1-2 feet of snow in the interior mountains of West Virginia and Kentucky. Must have been traumatizing for the tens of people who live there to deal with snow amounts which they are perfectly accustomed to.
  24. cptcatz
    It's funny how he's from NYC and yet forgets about the impact of post-tropical-cyclone, former extratropical storm, former category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, Sandy, a storm which made landfall 90 miles away from Manhattan, and yet caused the most destruction that NYC has ever seen from a weather event.
  25. cptcatz
    Obviously this is 2 weeks away so it really means nothing, but the GFS has the remnants of 92L going right over the same area.
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