cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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That's a mid-upper low. It's evolving into a stronger ULL due to backside outflow / TUTT off of Delta. Actually, I think you were being facetious here. Anyway... yeah. I wasn't being facetious. I'm still new to weather stuff and didn't know all that you just explained.
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Well that's interesting. I wonder if NHC will mark it at 8pm. It's got a clear tight circulation going on.
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Definitely the best looking "eye" of its life so far
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6z GEFS continues to show the signal around October 19
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GEFS is showing a big Caribbean signal during the last couple weeks of October
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The 12z Euro run has it intensifying from 976 to 955 between hours 24 and 48...
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The eastern outflow is looking much healthier now than it did a few hours ago. Also does look like a tiny eye is forming in the last few frames.
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Man if this reaches cat 5 in the next ~12 hours that would make 5 straight years of a cat 5, and even more scary/impressive/sad would be 4 straight years of a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 intensity.
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Yeah I know the whole a broken clock is still right twice a day thing but the GFS-P was the only model that was consistently showing Delta developing into a significant hurricane in the long range.
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I'd assume most people would click the day to see a slightly more detailed description. Then they would see tropical storm conditions likely, and at that point they should look further into it.
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First thing I think of is the robot from the video game Sonic Adventure for Dreamcast.
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What's up with 92L losing all its convection?
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NHC now has the second wave up, first wave is up to 70%
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And yet the Euro continues to show zero tropical development...
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GFS-Para. A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge. That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.
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Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean.
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1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major.
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06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb...
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Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out. I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.
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Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...
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Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day. Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias. On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory? Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger. Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula.
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Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm. NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...
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Although way out in fantasy land, the GFS and the Para are showing consistent signs of a Caribbean storm forming first week of October.
