cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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And at the same time if it doesn't develop that would be a massive fail for the GFS.
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The 12z GFS run is almost exactly the same as Wilma. This could be setting up for quite a season finale.
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2020 may still have a run at seeing a cat 5...
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Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out. 06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast. I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm. A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas.
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Another GFS run with a Florida impact. Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.
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The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero. Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day. (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)
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2020 going out with a bang laughing at all those people who say Florida has force field?
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18z GFS continues with the gigantic storm, this run a bad scenario for Miami metro
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GFS/GFS-P sure like something forming but they're all over the place with exactly what. The 00z GFS- P shows what may be the largest tropical circulation I think I've ever seen.
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^it actually looks like the wave that a number of the models have developing near the Bahamas is the current wave that NHC has at 20%
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That's a mid-upper low. It's evolving into a stronger ULL due to backside outflow / TUTT off of Delta. Actually, I think you were being facetious here. Anyway... yeah. I wasn't being facetious. I'm still new to weather stuff and didn't know all that you just explained.
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Well that's interesting. I wonder if NHC will mark it at 8pm. It's got a clear tight circulation going on.
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Definitely the best looking "eye" of its life so far
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6z GEFS continues to show the signal around October 19
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GEFS is showing a big Caribbean signal during the last couple weeks of October
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The 12z Euro run has it intensifying from 976 to 955 between hours 24 and 48...
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The eastern outflow is looking much healthier now than it did a few hours ago. Also does look like a tiny eye is forming in the last few frames.
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Man if this reaches cat 5 in the next ~12 hours that would make 5 straight years of a cat 5, and even more scary/impressive/sad would be 4 straight years of a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 intensity.
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Yeah I know the whole a broken clock is still right twice a day thing but the GFS-P was the only model that was consistently showing Delta developing into a significant hurricane in the long range.
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I'd assume most people would click the day to see a slightly more detailed description. Then they would see tropical storm conditions likely, and at that point they should look further into it.
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First thing I think of is the robot from the video game Sonic Adventure for Dreamcast.
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What's up with 92L losing all its convection?
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NHC now has the second wave up, first wave is up to 70%
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And yet the Euro continues to show zero tropical development...
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GFS-Para. A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge. That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.
