cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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From what I understand, dry air is the main limiting factor right now in the MDR. Looks like it stays dry for the next couple weeks with a final blast of dry air around August 1 but behind that it looks like mostly moist air moving off of Africa. Am I reading this right?
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So the GFS is now out to August 3 with no signs of development. When does that proverbial switch get turned on?
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Not sure how reliable it is but the CMC gets pretty aggressive with that wave.
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Today's 12z GFS finally shows some development at the latest hour near Florida. It's obviously a long way away but it looks like the same wave that the Euro hints at developing in MDR less than 10 days out.
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The 00z GFS shows a depression forming 100 hours out and then intensifying to 974 mb at hour 174. Wonder when the NHC will pick up on it.
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Looks like the next system could be the little end of the front hanging and developing off the coast of Georgia this weekend. Probably minor impacts for the Florida/Georgia coast then the bigger stuff stays out to sea. GFS shows maybe a hurricane OTS.
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So is the rain that has already fallen in Africa going to impact peak season? In other words, if it totally stops raining right now, are the pieces already in place for an active MDR during peak season?
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The GFS backed off the June 17 storm for a few days but is back with it on today's 12z run. This run has it going right into the northern Gulf coast so it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
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I know it's way down the line but the GFS has consistently shown on multiple runs another storm forming in the western Caribbean around June 17. The GFS did a great job forecasting Cristobal from about the same time out, so it could be another one to watch.
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I know this is hour 384 of the GFS (which means nothing), but this is quite a screenshot!
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We now have four straight GFS runs (yesterday 18Z, today 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) showing a big tropical storm in the Gulf on June 7.
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Euro getting on board with a Gulf storm first week of June...
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Looks like Arthur should be here in the next couple days... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Brown
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The GFS has consistiently been showing a pretty strong hurricane forming in the Pacific and making landfall in Central America. Now the last two runs (May 8 00z and 06z) have it reforming in the Caribbean. It'll be interesting to see if the models keep that up.
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Now the Euro is on board with possible development next weekend?
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Today's 6z GFS shows a system in the gulf on May 9, not developing but maybe?
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Just something to keep in mind... these were the model tracks for Irma 2-3 days before it made the turn:
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Obviously this is 2 weeks away so it really means nothing, but the GFS has the remnants of 92L going right over the same area.
