cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean.
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1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major.
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06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb...
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Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out. I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.
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Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...
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Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day. Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias. On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory? Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger. Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula.
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Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm. NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...
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Although way out in fantasy land, the GFS and the Para are showing consistent signs of a Caribbean storm forming first week of October.
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How about they just retire the greek letter and not use it anymore? What are the chances that enough greek letters are retired that they eventually run out of letters? I'd say zero.
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Any chance this ends up heading east towards Florida?
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The GFS and Para have been hinting at a Caribbean storm at the end of the month. The 06z Para shows it crossing Florida and riding up the east coast.
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Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust.
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I don't envy the NHC if/when they have to come up with a cone for this one...
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Xiomara? Is that even a name?
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Did anyone else use to watch Barney? I keep singing the Sally the Camel song...
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Don't you remember the "unsurvivable storm surge"?
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Actually now that I see it's supposed to be a slow mover, I'm upping my prediction to a solid cat 5. This will have the time that Hanna and Laura didn't. Calling for hurricane at 11am tomorrow and a major by Monday morning.
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Repeating my post from the other thread from yesterday afternoon which I received six hot dogs for: Something seems off about the forecast. Motion looks almost south right now and is still getting better organized. If it makes the move west at this southern position it would go right through the Florida Straits. Then with conditions looking good in the Gulf, I see no reason why this doesn't bomb out similar to Laura. I'm calling for another cat 4+.
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Euro showing another low rider heading into the Caribbean, I assume would be Vicky.
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It looks like there's an area of convection out ahead of 95L around 50W. Any chance this can spin up?
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What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?
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6z GFS taking an Irma route across the Keys and up the west coast of Florida
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Happy peak of hurricane season day to all!
