cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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18z HWRF and HMON are also trending east with the HMON bringing it right into Biscayne Bay at 982 mb.
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No idea if there's a LLC but there's a tight vortex in the upper level clouds visible at 18N 82.5W. Anything to make out of that?
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I'm in Boca Raton so watching it carefully. But there's not much going on right now. Although I just checked out the satellite and it looks like a whole lot of convection is firing up over the water right now, maybe a spin starting to form?
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So I guess this is why? Eta is still gonna be a thing?
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What just happened to the models?
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138 knots at surface. That's category 5.
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Recon still finding impressive winds. 143 kts at 915 mb.
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Umm...
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Irma was definitely the most picturesque in recent years. The size, symmetry, and lack of all the other crud that Eta has around it, made it look perfect.
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And here we go again... 120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
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Well Euro has this getting to 933 mb in ten days from now in the middle of the Caribbean, so maybe what we're seeing tonight wont be the peak of Eta... (cue weenie likes)
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12z Euro ending with a 933 mb storm heading NNW towards Cuba. Would be something to see a storm reach cat 5, make landfall and weaken to a depression, then move back over water and strengthen back to a cat 5. I assume that's never happened before? Euro has been super bearish this season so seeing 933 mb ten days out is pretty impressive.
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Amazing agreement between Euro and GFS in the long range that definitely hasn't been seen all year. This is concerning.
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00z GFS-P has it making landfall in Miami, meanders around Broward and Palm Beach a little before heading northwest, emerging into the Gulf right over Tampa, strengthening in the Gulf, and then making another landfall around Panama Beach. Oof that would be something
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Looks like it's lost a lot of its convection over the past few hours
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If that's not at least a tropical depression then I don't know what is
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06z GFS has it riding up through Florida next weekend
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And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days. Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season?
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Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore.
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Here we go...
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Looks like recon will have one more pass through the eye before landfall. Eagerly awaiting the plane to turn!
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110 mph at the 3pm update. Looks like it will have at most one more advisory before making landfall, one final chance to hit major.
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He rented it for hurricane season, as he calls it "Operation Deep South at Hurricane House". Pretty damn good choice for a rental home as a base to chase hurricanes!
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Hurricane Josh is gonna be sitting on his front porch getting the strongest winds of the storm. Impressive house selection.
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Model trends the past couple days now have been the Caribbean storm going straight into Honduras/Nicaragua, similar to a Mitch track, which made landfall in Honduras 22 years ago tomorrow.
