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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Yeah the convection is looking weird for the past couple hours. Recon should be in the center in a matter of minutes which should shed some light.
  2. cptcatz
    Posting from Boca Raton. The 5pm cone moved to where we are now barely on the edge of it. Wouldn't mind a nice squally day to watch on Tuesday following the long weekend but really don't want to lose power. It seems that being on the edge of the cone four days out means you're gonna get a direct hit, going by how things have been going lately.
  3. cptcatz
    Yep, a Michael/Wilma track would do it.
  4. cptcatz
    Can anyone explain what is going on in the 12z Euro? It looks like Elsa gets strung out between Cuba and the Bahamas but then regroups off the Keys and then continues into the Gulf.
  5. cptcatz
    Right off the bat it's initialized at 1002 mb while the NHC has it at 995. The recon and surface observations weren't input to the 12z run so the 18z should be much more telling.
  6. cptcatz
    Regardless of what happens here on out, another major bust for Euro's cyclogenesis forecasting.
  7. cptcatz
    Yeah I'm looking forward to reading the 11pm update soon. Guessing they will up the current strength to 50-55 mph with the 45 knot windbarbs on the recent ascat and probably up the forecast to hurricane strength.
  8. cptcatz
    Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3... If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida. Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina.
  9. cptcatz
    Little speck of -80° cloud popping up...
  10. cptcatz
    12Z coming in further east.
  11. cptcatz
    GFS with a cat 2 landfalling into northern Florida
  12. cptcatz
    Models are in pretty good agreement that we'll have a tropical storm within 24 hours...
  13. cptcatz
    GFS is locked, loaded, and ready to go on 97L
  14. cptcatz
    This morning's HWRF develops 95L into a tiny cat 2 with the next wave hot on its heels...
  15. cptcatz
    00z Euro now backed off development altogether. Interesting how development COULD be within 24-48 hours and the models still can't figure it out.
  16. cptcatz
    The windshield wiper effect is in full go mode with the 06z GFS back with a major hurricane into Texas. Regardless, we're at like 3 straight days of GFS runs showing this system forming so if doesn't that would be a huge flop.
  17. cptcatz
    This run has a 980 mb storm making a left turn into New England lol
  18. cptcatz
    Well that's interesting
  19. cptcatz
    GFS-Euro-CMC all showing signs of our first CV storm developing next weekend with the GFS being most bullish tracking it all the way to the Caribbean...
  20. cptcatz
    Seriously. Last summer a severe thunderstorm, typical of a South Florida summer thunderstorm was packing winds of 65+ mph, it knocked over my basketball hoop in the driveway which fell on my car denting the car and cracked the backboard. That was the worst weather damage I've had to deal with living in south Florida for the past 4 years. I'll always remember that nameless storm.
  21. cptcatz
    You can clearly see a tight lower level spin on the visible sat at 27.5N, 91.5W. I'd be surprised if NHC doesn't name it at 2pm.
  22. cptcatz
    I don't know but the outflow of it provided a full day of much needed rain for us in south Florida.
  23. cptcatz
    If we're having fun with the random 14 day out models, the 18z GEFS shows a signal for another western Caribbean storm possibly heading towards your area...
  24. cptcatz
    Interesting GFS run this morning
  25. cptcatz
    17/9/4
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