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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    That would be quite the deviation from the incredibly tight model consensus. Is this wishcasting or an actual possibility?
  2. cptcatz
    Haha that actually made me laugh out loud. If enough of us pray I think we could make it happen. My backyard weather station just recorded a temp drop from 91 to 79 in the last 30 minutes, sustained wind is at 13.4 mph with gusts to 20 mph. It's looking very ominous out.
  3. cptcatz
    Looks like the first big bands should be getting here in Boca Raton within the next few minutes.
  4. cptcatz
    What do those numbers mean?
  5. cptcatz
    Even with the weird trends with this storm, gotta give credit to the NHC for getting the forecast center line almost dead on five days ago, threading the needle through Haiti and Jamaica and going just south of that little Cuba peninsula. Also besides for the few hours when it got to a hurricane, they got the intensity forecast pretty well too. Pretty impressive.
  6. cptcatz
    IR looks like a mess but on visible it actually looks like a nicely rotating storm. If the low and mid centers are stacked it seems like it could still intensify.
  7. cptcatz
    HWRF still thinks she's gonna strengthen big time. What does it see that the other models don't (or vice versa)?
  8. cptcatz
    Looks like the center might slide right to the south of the Haiti peninsula and there's some nice convection popping up on the west side. It might not be time to let her go just yet...
  9. cptcatz
    Nice shot of the convection over the LLC 20210703_080005~2.mp4
  10. cptcatz
    A spot of deep convection just popped up over the LLC. Might this be its last chance?
  11. cptcatz
    Except that the cold DID bother her... remember when she couldn't get her act together in the eastern Atlantic because of the cold SSTs? Very un-Elsa-like...
  12. cptcatz
    Yeah the convection is looking weird for the past couple hours. Recon should be in the center in a matter of minutes which should shed some light.
  13. cptcatz
    Posting from Boca Raton. The 5pm cone moved to where we are now barely on the edge of it. Wouldn't mind a nice squally day to watch on Tuesday following the long weekend but really don't want to lose power. It seems that being on the edge of the cone four days out means you're gonna get a direct hit, going by how things have been going lately.
  14. cptcatz
    Yep, a Michael/Wilma track would do it.
  15. cptcatz
    Can anyone explain what is going on in the 12z Euro? It looks like Elsa gets strung out between Cuba and the Bahamas but then regroups off the Keys and then continues into the Gulf.
  16. cptcatz
    Right off the bat it's initialized at 1002 mb while the NHC has it at 995. The recon and surface observations weren't input to the 12z run so the 18z should be much more telling.
  17. cptcatz
    Regardless of what happens here on out, another major bust for Euro's cyclogenesis forecasting.
  18. cptcatz
    Yeah I'm looking forward to reading the 11pm update soon. Guessing they will up the current strength to 50-55 mph with the 45 knot windbarbs on the recent ascat and probably up the forecast to hurricane strength.
  19. cptcatz
    Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3... If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida. Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina.
  20. cptcatz
    Little speck of -80° cloud popping up...
  21. cptcatz
    12Z coming in further east.
  22. cptcatz
    GFS with a cat 2 landfalling into northern Florida
  23. cptcatz
    Models are in pretty good agreement that we'll have a tropical storm within 24 hours...
  24. cptcatz
    GFS is locked, loaded, and ready to go on 97L
  25. cptcatz
    This morning's HWRF develops 95L into a tiny cat 2 with the next wave hot on its heels...
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