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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    What a season! It's September 19 and a new weak tropical depression near the Azores is getting all the hype.
  2. cptcatz
    You've been posting lots of UK runs showing a tropical cyclone lately with nothing coming of it. UK has been just as bad as GFS with its fantasycanes.
  3. cptcatz
    Pretty remarkable, we are now looking at a solid chance of going the rest of September with no tropical cyclone, let alone a hurricane. Now that GFS finally dropped its fantasycane, models show zilch into October.
  4. cptcatz
    I don't think this is accurate. Weather phenomena don't have "functions". They are the outcomes of atmospheric processes and don't actually have purposes.
  5. cptcatz
    Is there any research or data on how hurricanes one year impact the ocean temperatures the next year? I feel like just because there may not be any hurricanes this year, that doesn't impact next year's ocean temps nearly as much as other ocean and atmospheric processes that take place over the winter.
  6. cptcatz
    Moved even further to the northeast than recon even thought! Landfall is definitely a possibility...
  7. cptcatz
    Pass through the eye just recorded 143 kt flight level wind and 918.4 mslp. Impressive
  8. cptcatz
    Lowell is putting on a show for recon right now
  9. cptcatz
    No way this is becoming a hurricane. Still so weak and not enough time until landfall.
  10. cptcatz
    Looks much more like it's about to go poof rather than boom.
  11. cptcatz
    Euro and GFS both out to mid September with no tropical development. The question may start getting real soon... Can we go a whole season without a hurricane?
  12. cptcatz
    The UK has been hinting at this system forming in front of Dolly along the SE coast. It was kind of a mystery until now but check out this satellite presentation. Looks like it was on to something.
  13. cptcatz
    Dolly still looking voluptuous at this ripe age of hers. I feel like models have no idea what's going on. Same with NHC. How can this possibly only have a 0%/10% of becoming a TC?
  14. cptcatz
    I'm not convinced this is the end of Dolly. There's still a pretty clear center of rotation visible on satellite and it looks like it's gaining in latitude much faster than forecasted. If the circulation goes north of the islands, which it seems that it might, then I think game is on once it makes it closer to the Bahamas. The big factor will be whether the weak LLC stays intact, which it probably wouldn't if it went over the islands, whereas it could if it goes north of them...
  15. cptcatz
    FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Yeah should be interesting if/when it opens back into a wave, will NHC immediately put an orange/red back onto the TWO.
  16. cptcatz
    No, a post tropical storm is a system that used to be a tropical storm but is no longer. Post means after, the opposite of pre. So a wave coming off of Africa is not a post tropical storm.
  17. cptcatz
    For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.
  18. cptcatz
    All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...
  19. cptcatz
    Shear is low and is forecasted to remain low on the area of the Bahamas, where the SSTs are also around record highs. If a system can get there, there's no reason why it can't blow up like Andrew or Dorian did in that area.
  20. cptcatz
    Lol seriously. I don't need an hour by hour recap of what Andrew did 34 years ago on this day.
  21. cptcatz
    I feel like this is the first August in many years where there are healthy waves coming off Africa without Saharan dust, and yet they can't do anything because of the crazy shear. If that shear wasn't there, this could have been an impressive August that we haven't seen in a while. Oh well.
  22. cptcatz
    And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.
  23. cptcatz
    There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?
  24. cptcatz
    114 kt FL winds recorded. Pushing cat 3 again. She just won't give up.
  25. cptcatz
    Looks like White House should have clear skies right now. Crawford may be just inside the eye right now. Hopefully Josh can have a few minutes of sunshine to go outside and document.
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