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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
  2. cptcatz
    I mean is this even a cyclone?
  3. cptcatz
    Looks like convection is trying to wrap around a center at 14.5N 76W. That would be a full degree north of what recon found.
  4. cptcatz
    Euro saying Miami gets hits, GFS saying Tallahassee gets hit. What a range.
  5. cptcatz
    No it's not, lil homie.
  6. cptcatz
    Agreed. That's a nice little pop of deep convection right next to the center while it looks like the convection to the southwest is fading away. Fiona did the same thing and ended up keeping its LLC. Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern Florida landfall like Icon is showing.
  7. cptcatz
    It's nice to give him the benefit of the doubt but that makes no sense since he specifically said anywhere in Florida, plus this storm is coming from the Gulf side so if that's what he meant it doesn't apply to what we're dealing with here lol
  8. cptcatz
    Is it? Off the top of my head in the last 20 years there were Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma, Michael, and Irma all landfalling as majors in Florida.
  9. cptcatz
    Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub? Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.
  10. cptcatz
    06z GFS with worst case scenario for Tampa. Good thing that won't happen since based on what I read here Tampa can't get hit?
  11. cptcatz
    Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD? Gotta think this is getting there.
  12. cptcatz
    How about now that king euro shows the same thing...?
  13. cptcatz
    CMC and Icon nearly identical with the eye sitting over my house in 136 hours and TS winds arriving in 120 hours. This could come as a fast surprise to people here in southeast Florida.
  14. cptcatz
    12z Icon making a sharp northeast curve and goes right through Miami/Broward County. Will be very interesting to see if the 12z GFS follows suit. Edit: 66 hours in and GFS is also way more northeast than the last runs.
  15. cptcatz
    06z Euro stronger and a tad to the northeast vs 00z. Ends at 990 mb just west of Jamaica.
  16. cptcatz
    Regardless of where this goes, all models are showing this to be an enormous storm. The surge could be historic and possibly worse than Katrina, especially if it stalls in the gulf as the GFS is showing.
  17. cptcatz
    Recon recorded 119 knots in the SE eyewall and 933 mb. NE eyewall pass should be good.
  18. cptcatz
    Euro sticking to landfall around Ft. Meyers. This storm looks far bigger than Charley and impacts look to be throughout South Florida including Miami metro, similar to Irma.
  19. cptcatz
    2020 would like a word with you
  20. cptcatz
    Do you think the trend is toward the southern Florida peninsula? That 00z Euro run hit my house bad in Palm Beach County. Same track through Florida as Wilma.
  21. cptcatz
    It's an interesting conversation. Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?" These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days?
  22. cptcatz
    This second post just proves my first post so well. Only two days ago models were pointing at no more storms on the horizon and September ending with 0/3/3 (the 5am NHC forecast on Sunday did not forecast Fiona to be a MH). Only two days later, we are sitting at 1/3/4, with another likely MH forming next week in the Caribbean, and possibly another TS forming near Africa, and could be ending the month at 2/4/6. Just goes to show how crap the models are at medium/long range cyclogenesis.
  23. cptcatz
    Sorry to get off topic but I don't think anything will ever beat Irma from that perspective. That was consistent model runs for like a week all showing ~880 mb landfalls.
  24. cptcatz
    Seems euro has been too far west all season and is always correcting back east to align with the GFS. If that's the case here, looking like the eastern Gulf Coast or Florida peninsula would be the target zone.
  25. cptcatz
    I love watching tornado videos. But there's a big difference between tornado coverage and hurricane coverage. You can't get inside a tornado. You can get inside a hurricane.
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