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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run.
  2. cptcatz
    ^GEFS goes ham on south Florida. August 25 will mark the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall, the last time a hurricane has made landfall on the east coast of Florida...
  3. cptcatz
    06z goes just as nuts
  4. cptcatz
    The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...
  5. cptcatz
    Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August.
  6. cptcatz
    Looks like Euro/EPS and GFS/GFES are both in agreement that potentially three waves could develop by the end of August. Waves come off around Aug 20, 24, and another around the 29th that both models are seeing. I suppose we're gonna be sone quietness from ldub...
  7. cptcatz
    Here we go, the MDR is waking up
  8. cptcatz
    12z euro sticking with that wave...
  9. cptcatz
    Euro/EPS and CMC both seeing a solid wave emerging Africa in 10 days. Gotta see if they stick with it and if GFS gets on board, maybe this will finally be the start of the season.
  10. cptcatz
    Now this might be the most interesting thing a model has shown this season, even if it may be 384 hours out...
  11. cptcatz
    No, August 8 is not the peak of the season. It's not even a month away from the peak of the season. Try again.
  12. cptcatz
    Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather? The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.
  13. cptcatz
    Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017
  14. cptcatz
    lol I didn't think I come across too bullish. But... I'll do my part with a bullish response here. Models are starting to come into agreement that cyclogenesis will occur in about 4-5 days. Then you're talking about what conditions might look like in 10+ days. Models have zero idea what conditions look like 10 days down the road. Whenever I think of that, I always go back to Dorian. Here were the EPS 10 day ensembles:
  15. cptcatz
    Euro ensembles are picking up on it: GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well. Could be tracking two systems next week. So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction.
  16. cptcatz
    With the tropics quiet for now, it's fun to look back at the older thread posts... August 10, 2017: August 11, 2017:
  17. cptcatz
    Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...
  18. cptcatz
    What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?
  19. cptcatz
    GEFS is starting to hint at some Caribbean/Gulf action in mid August for a few runs now. How soon before ldub changes his 0-0-0 August predicition?
  20. cptcatz
    I'm not making any prediction here, but for those writing off the season on July 27 needs to remember there are three months of peak season ahead of us and it only takes two months of hurricanes to make a 226.9 ACE season:
  21. cptcatz
    I wasn't following hurricanes back then but just taking a look at the wikipedia page, the 2000 season lived up to or outdid the forecasts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_outlooks
  22. cptcatz
    Logic not even once. Statement #1 implies that MJO doesn't have as much bearing as people may think. Statement #2 implies that the MJO going negative will have a large bearing on the season.
  23. cptcatz
    For those responding to ldub, just remember he posted these posts in July/August 2020:
  24. cptcatz
    Yep, those Falcon9 launches at twilight are amazing. This was the view from my backyard.
  25. cptcatz
    Quoting this to come back to it to make you look like a fool in October...
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