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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Quite a few of the GFS runs have been showing a CAG like storm forming in the western Caribbean. CMC has been showing it a lot too and now EPS is hinting it at. Where it goes from there is a toss up but the fact that it forms on many models is what's important.
  2. cptcatz
    Anyone know if recon will be flying into it?
  3. cptcatz
    12z GFS, CMC, and Euro are basically telling us we have no idea what's gonna happen. Jeez can we get some model consistency here please?
  4. cptcatz
    18z EPS still showing four distinct clusters within 144 hours
  5. cptcatz
    Nice post as right after that the 12z EPS blew up. We'll see if it sticks https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1687931125040070656
  6. cptcatz
    Structure looks nice but all models have it go poof as soon as it enters the Caribbean. If the NHC is right and it maintains at a 75-80 mph hurricane through the Caribbean, they would get mad respect.
  7. cptcatz
    This system in the western Caribbean is what the GFS has been saying hits Florida as a hurricane for the last 2 weeks. It certainly looks impressive right now. It'll be interesting to watch in real time.
  8. cptcatz
    That's quite a look for June 11. This is gonna be an interesting season...
  9. cptcatz
    1) Sandy made landfall at 945 mb 2) Sandy was 1,100 miles wide 3) Sandy pushed the surge into New York Bay which is one of the largest bays in the world and naturally incredibly surge prone. There is nothing like that around where Nicole is going. To sum it up, this is nothing like Sandy.
  10. cptcatz
    Looks like it's trying to pop some convection on the western eyewall. Needs it to stick if it's gonna intensify some more.
  11. cptcatz
    Wow that recon pass really just ramped things up quick. On the verge of being a hurricane now.
  12. cptcatz
    Anyone know when the next low level recon is?
  13. cptcatz
    Someone tell me if I'm crazy but I'm seeing the LLC now moving just EAST of due south...
  14. cptcatz
    The last few frames of satellite looks like the center is moving due south and convection is trying to pop right there.
  15. cptcatz
    It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there.
  16. cptcatz
    06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb. If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb.
  17. cptcatz
    At least the track is pretty locked in. At this point in Ian's life the GFS was showing a panhandle/Alabama storm while Euro/UK were showing Naples to Tampa.
  18. cptcatz
    I think it's a given that Wednesday and Thursday will be a washout at the very least. There could definitely be bigger issues if this thing is on the stronger side of the models...
  19. cptcatz
    ^I suppose a 977mb storm would be the worst case scenario for a mid-November sloppy subtropical system... Anyways, the ensembles are just as bullish as the GFS operational.
  20. cptcatz
    All year GFS and Euro have been meeting half way. Now with GFS showing 982mb and Euro showing 1006mb, mark my words here that it will be 994mb.
  21. cptcatz
    All models are in good agreement of some kind of sloppy system heading west over the Bahamas and into Florida next week. GFS with a 991mb into Jacksonville.
  22. cptcatz
    So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?
  23. cptcatz
    Although euro doesn't show anything, EPS is as bullish it's been with this afternoon's run. There's a few really strong ones in there...
  24. cptcatz
    I want to believe this could happen but after the shenanigans the GFS has played before in the Caribbean this season, I'm not gonna get on board until there's other model agreement. Icon is on board but I'll need more than just that.
  25. cptcatz
    06z still moving up in time with a 990mb at h156, 966mb at h180, and 939mb at h216. 12z ICON is on board but not much else.
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