Jump to content

cptcatz

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,031

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    It will still have huge surge though. Surge isn't correlated with the intensity at landfall but is a function of the size, intensity, and time over water of the entire history of the storm. All the water that the storm was pushing out in front of it will still be there. Similar situation as Sandy which was a massive storm over water for a very long time and even though it made landfall with only cat 1 winds, those other factors caused 14 foot storm surges.
  2. cptcatz
    71 knots in the NE quad. Special advisory coming with upgrade to hurricane?
  3. cptcatz
    It's a bit north and west.
  4. cptcatz
    Yep Andy Hazelton tweeted that he was on it.
  5. cptcatz
    Not necessarily. Surge would be worse in the first scenario. Look at the difference between Katrina and Ida.
  6. cptcatz
    Not sure if I'm being a weenie but it kind of looks like the low level swirl is moving due north on visible. A little hard to tell through the taller clouds but that's what my eyes see.
  7. cptcatz
  8. cptcatz
    I mean is this even a cyclone?
  9. cptcatz
    Looks like convection is trying to wrap around a center at 14.5N 76W. That would be a full degree north of what recon found.
  10. cptcatz
    Euro saying Miami gets hits, GFS saying Tallahassee gets hit. What a range.
  11. cptcatz
    No it's not, lil homie.
  12. cptcatz
    Agreed. That's a nice little pop of deep convection right next to the center while it looks like the convection to the southwest is fading away. Fiona did the same thing and ended up keeping its LLC. Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern Florida landfall like Icon is showing.
  13. cptcatz
    It's nice to give him the benefit of the doubt but that makes no sense since he specifically said anywhere in Florida, plus this storm is coming from the Gulf side so if that's what he meant it doesn't apply to what we're dealing with here lol
  14. cptcatz
    Is it? Off the top of my head in the last 20 years there were Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma, Michael, and Irma all landfalling as majors in Florida.
  15. cptcatz
    Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub? Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.
  16. cptcatz
    06z GFS with worst case scenario for Tampa. Good thing that won't happen since based on what I read here Tampa can't get hit?
  17. cptcatz
    Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD? Gotta think this is getting there.
  18. cptcatz
    How about now that king euro shows the same thing...?
  19. cptcatz
    CMC and Icon nearly identical with the eye sitting over my house in 136 hours and TS winds arriving in 120 hours. This could come as a fast surprise to people here in southeast Florida.
  20. cptcatz
    12z Icon making a sharp northeast curve and goes right through Miami/Broward County. Will be very interesting to see if the 12z GFS follows suit. Edit: 66 hours in and GFS is also way more northeast than the last runs.
  21. cptcatz
    06z Euro stronger and a tad to the northeast vs 00z. Ends at 990 mb just west of Jamaica.
  22. cptcatz
    Regardless of where this goes, all models are showing this to be an enormous storm. The surge could be historic and possibly worse than Katrina, especially if it stalls in the gulf as the GFS is showing.
  23. cptcatz
    Recon recorded 119 knots in the SE eyewall and 933 mb. NE eyewall pass should be good.
  24. cptcatz
    Euro sticking to landfall around Ft. Meyers. This storm looks far bigger than Charley and impacts look to be throughout South Florida including Miami metro, similar to Irma.
  25. cptcatz
    2020 would like a word with you
×
×
  • Create New...