cptcatz

Maybe the most interesting thing that happens in the Atlantic this season will be Earl's impact on Europe...

56 knot wind and 998 mb on this pass. Really outperforming what every model has been showing.

Just a little note: recon found the center south of 18N while the NHC and all the models had at north of 18N. Wonder if that will change anything.

Euro coming in still further to the south. Will be interesting to see where it ends up on this run.

CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET. Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS. This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina.

Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy.

00z Euro and CMC both with a hurricane in the central MDR at day 10. Maybe this will be the one?

It's not looking terrible on satellite and 18z Euro/EPS did track a bit more southward...

Yeah we're still over a month away from the Wilma-Matthew-Michael-Sandy tracks. No reason to think we can't get one or more of those tracked storms.

Hurricane Grace just last year. Big miss by the early models.

Very interesting last frame of the Euro model... intensifies from 986 to 973 while moving southwest.

Most models were also showing Irma hooking right while it was in the middle of the Atlantic as well...

It looks like on visible that's it's trying to tighten up a low level spin...

Sure, when it's head to head. But now 12z CMC also is showing the same thing, so the competition is Euro/CMC/Icon vs GFS. Who ya got now?

Impressive band of convection forming in the northeast side which is where the wave is merging. I could see this outperforming the models.

Yeah, I mean GFS is all alone with the Caribbean system but every single model has been showing the lead Atlantic system developing for a couple days now. I'd be really surprised if NHC doesn't bump it up to at least 50-60% at 8pm.

Euro going all in

The EPS model on Tropical Tidbits go out further than 240hr and show South Florida is in play bigtime...

I'm watching this closely from Boca Raton...

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W? It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

Yeah this is definitely the most interesting euro run in a while. I still don't trust anything beyond 5 days any more than I can throw them.

I'm no meteorologist, I'm just a guy with logic, but I think a big problem with the seasonal forecasts is it seems that they pretty much only take two things into account: water temp of the Pacific, and water temp of the Atlantic, and spit out numbers based solely on that. And yet what we're seeing is there are so many other environmental factors besides it being La Nina with a warm Atlantic. But I'm ready to throw my towel to ldub. I'm getting tired of watching the models keep dropping the storms at the 5 day mark. What a borefest.

At the 5 day mark, there is zilch happening in the tropics...

The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida. The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one. Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough.

And then every time you declare victory, the GFS comes back to mock you once again, this time with the 06z bringing a major through the Lesser Antilles, direct hit onto Puerto Rico, then bringing the monster into the Gulf...