cptcatz

18z GFS is the first run in a while that actually produces a bonafide storm, and one that crosses over the Florida peninsula. We'll see if this sticks or was a one-off.

Today marks the peak of the season and the September 10 12z runs are in and GFS and Euro both show no cyclogenesis throughout their runs. I wonder how many other September 10 runs have shown nothing.

And the power went out because of the snowstorm... It's really no different than saying the deaths from Katrina were because of the levee breaches and pump failures. Not sure how power going out in a snowstorm is any different than storm surge causing a levee breach.

Umm late season homebrew has produced some monster storms including the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin (Wilma) and one of only four cat5 landfalls on the CONUS (Michael).

Honestly I would say it's equal with basically the same risks for both: tree falling on the house or power going out causing either extreme cold in a snowstorm or extreme heat in a hurricane. There really aren't any other risks if you ride out the storm in a house.

Don't forget that sunny weather is also commonly associated with heat waves. Heat kills more people than any other weather phemonena. This summer's European heat wave has killed over 23,000 people.

How many deaths from wind or surge while people are inside their homes have we had lately? I'd go out on a limb and say zero or at the very least very close to zero. Hurricane deaths are basically all from electrocutions from downed power lines, people getting swept away by stupidly driving into flood waters, surfers drowning, or people again stupidly being outside and having tree limbs fall on them.

And if you're home during a blizzard and the power goes out you can literally freeze to death. I'd say that's more likely than dying from the wind or surge in a first world properly constructed house.

One snowflake? Never. But one raindrop never caused flooding either. A lot of snow can cause significant property damage though.

Pretty amazing how boring the 336 hour GEFS happy hour run of September 8 is. The only little interesting thing I see are the handful of members rising up from the western Caribbean heading towards Cuba/Florida. Could be a sign of what's to come?

And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon. It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days.

As I mentioned in the other thread, are hurricanes that don't hit any different than the great red spot on Jupiter? I would say not really...

What a borefest so far

lol it should be more like "Cat 5 mid atlantic hurricane" on the right and "60mph tropical storm landfalling on the east coast" on the left.

I'll speak for myself here but I would much rather see the two middling tropical storms threatening the US. I mean, hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic are only useful as pretty colors on a satellite image. I mean, have you guys seen that impressive storm on Jupiter? According to wikipedia it's been active for at least 357 years and produces winds up to 268 mph. What an impressive ACE score that produces!

I am, and they're showing basically nothing going out to late September. GFS has zero cyclogenesis through 384 hours, and all Euro has is fantasy storms way out east which it continues to gradually drop as time moves up which it's been doing all year. Euro's fantasy eastern-MDR storms are worse than GFS's Caribbean fantasy storms. Outside of the Caribbean the GFS has been pretty spot on this year and it's showing a dead rest of September.

Gotta say the number of recon flights is impressive. I guess they're making up for all the missed flights in August? 96 knot flight level wind just recorded.

Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy.

12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro. This season is getting pretty laughable.

I didn't say I wanted damage, actually I specifically said I didn't want damage...

Not sure if it matters much at this point but it looks like almost all of the members end up curving out to sea.

I'm a homeowner in Palm Beach County, Florida and I am rooting for a solid cat 1 strike in my area. I'd take anything that doesn't cause financial damage to my house (or my collection of fruit trees in my backyard). But a good 70-80 mph storm causing some power outages I'd take (my in-laws live down the street with a whole-house generator so not worried about power outages). Of course if a Dorian-style major hurricane does strike my area and kill my fruit trees and cause damage to my house, I would be pissed but I wouldn't regret my wishcasting for a storm since that wishcasting had zero impact on the MH strike. So yeah, I'll be the first to say I hope for some good landfalling hurricanes.

Quite a look on the 12z EPS. Got Earl going all over the place... while unlikely, a loop back to the US is on the table. Then a red hot wave coming off Africa at the end of the run quickly turning into a MH.

Agreed. A flip of the switch implies that bad conditions have switched to good conditions, even close to hyperactive conditions as the forecasts called for. We're not seeing that. We're seeing terrible tropical conditions in the very height of peak conditions which had produced two sloppy marginal storms. And looking at the models into mid September shows nothing changing as well. Of course mid September through October could be active but I don't see any switches flipped currently or in the next week or two on the models.

Maybe the most interesting thing that happens in the Atlantic this season will be Earl's impact on Europe...