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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    06z Euro goes ham dropping the pressure from 990 to 979 in the last three hours right after coming off of Hispaniola. I assume this would shoot out to sea.
  2. cptcatz
    18z Euro ends with the center crossing Hispaniola on the eastern side of the island which is relatively flat, as opposed to 12z run which crossed right overv the mountains. If it can get through the Mona Passage or just skirt the lowlands of the island, that would make a huge difference in the outcome. You can see here what that tiny difference makes.
  3. cptcatz
    Euro and GFS both playing catchup to CMC lol
  4. cptcatz
    Not sure what difference this makes but the strongest convection has moved a full degree south over the last few hours. At the beginning of the TT loop (16:05z) the strongest convection was between 16-17°N. At the end of the loop (20:55z) the strongest convection was between 15-16°N.
  5. cptcatz
    I'll give models credit for telling us where an established storm will go in the short term. But it's pretty crazy how bad they are at forecasting cyclogenesis. I wonder what the scientists/programmers can do to help that.
  6. cptcatz
    Ok maybe I spoke too soon on GFS taking it OTS
  7. cptcatz
    12z runs we now have GFS and Icon curving OTS east of the Bahamas while CMC brings it south of Florida into the Gulf...
  8. cptcatz
    Should be an interesting forecast discussion with so much uncertainty in these models.
  9. cptcatz
    Looking really close to a TC if not there already
  10. cptcatz
    Upgraded to code orange. P.s. for those that can't post files, you need to go into your settings, click attachments, and delete your old ones. You have a storage limit and have run out of space.
  11. cptcatz
    18z Euro and EPS getting interesting
  12. cptcatz
    18z GFS is the first run in a while that actually produces a bonafide storm, and one that crosses over the Florida peninsula. We'll see if this sticks or was a one-off.
  13. cptcatz
    Today marks the peak of the season and the September 10 12z runs are in and GFS and Euro both show no cyclogenesis throughout their runs. I wonder how many other September 10 runs have shown nothing.
  14. cptcatz
    And the power went out because of the snowstorm... It's really no different than saying the deaths from Katrina were because of the levee breaches and pump failures. Not sure how power going out in a snowstorm is any different than storm surge causing a levee breach.
  15. cptcatz
    Umm late season homebrew has produced some monster storms including the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin (Wilma) and one of only four cat5 landfalls on the CONUS (Michael).
  16. cptcatz
    Honestly I would say it's equal with basically the same risks for both: tree falling on the house or power going out causing either extreme cold in a snowstorm or extreme heat in a hurricane. There really aren't any other risks if you ride out the storm in a house.
  17. cptcatz
    Don't forget that sunny weather is also commonly associated with heat waves. Heat kills more people than any other weather phemonena. This summer's European heat wave has killed over 23,000 people.
  18. cptcatz
    How many deaths from wind or surge while people are inside their homes have we had lately? I'd go out on a limb and say zero or at the very least very close to zero. Hurricane deaths are basically all from electrocutions from downed power lines, people getting swept away by stupidly driving into flood waters, surfers drowning, or people again stupidly being outside and having tree limbs fall on them.
  19. cptcatz
    And if you're home during a blizzard and the power goes out you can literally freeze to death. I'd say that's more likely than dying from the wind or surge in a first world properly constructed house.
  20. cptcatz
    One snowflake? Never. But one raindrop never caused flooding either. A lot of snow can cause significant property damage though.
  21. cptcatz
    Pretty amazing how boring the 336 hour GEFS happy hour run of September 8 is. The only little interesting thing I see are the handful of members rising up from the western Caribbean heading towards Cuba/Florida. Could be a sign of what's to come?
  22. cptcatz
    And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon. It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days.
  23. cptcatz
    As I mentioned in the other thread, are hurricanes that don't hit any different than the great red spot on Jupiter? I would say not really...
  24. cptcatz
    What a borefest so far
  25. cptcatz
    lol it should be more like "Cat 5 mid atlantic hurricane" on the right and "60mph tropical storm landfalling on the east coast" on the left.
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