cptcatz

Wouldn't be surprised to see 94L become a depression today seeing how it's looking this morning. Eager to see an ascat pass. Looking tight and juicy.

Am I the only one that doesn't understand 99% of AmpedVort's posts?

Dr. Phil says there's a very very low chance of El Nino forming

HWRF brings it down to 987 mb before being shredded by Hispaniola.

Euro is getting on board. You need to quit it with your quick judgements.

While the GFS curves the storm out, a bunch of the ensemble members keep it low into the islands. Definitely something to watch...

Interesting run by the icon...

Lol you must have not been following how accurate the models are for the past couple years.

The models can't seem to figure out where this thing is going to form. Going to be interesting to see where it does finally form and how the models alter their runs based on that. Seems we can't actually get anything from the models until that happens.

and the Florida peninsula shield holds!

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Looks like GFS and Euro are in good agreement that the wave that rolls off Africa this Thursday will try to develop. Of course euro has it staying at TD/TS through the MDR while GFS has it getting to 952 mb. Looks like the ensembles have the stronger storms curving further north with the weaker tracks heading towards the Caribbean. Should be a good one to watch.

Signal is getting better...

18z GFS is the most bullish yet with a long tracking (albeit weak) MDR storm heading towards Florida

GFS coming in with the exact same thinking as euro

First signs of a signal coming from euro...

The long rage GEFS continues to show activity signals the second week of August

Some very faint signals on the GFS, GEFS, and Euro for something to form in the MDR around August 4-7. Not much but more than what we've seen in the past few weeks.

90L has fizzled but there's an impressive burst of convection north of Hispaniola.

Recon found a definite center with a small pressure drop right in the middle, but without convection overhead it's not gonna be named.

A severe storm just rolled through Boca Raton. Got a severe thunderstorm warning with a mention of a tornado threat but no specific tornado warning/watch. Even so, I just recorded these videos over my house of cloud rotation.

Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen. Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models.

90L has been designated and it's looking pretty juicy

Doesn't look like anything will come of this, and even if it does it will probably mean a rainy day for Bermuda.

Who cares about what they're x'ing? All it means is that they're keeping an eye on it and no one even knows except for the hardcore weather nerds who keep track of these things.