cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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Euro and CMC have been showing two waves getting across the Atlantic first week of September and staying pretty low in latitude. Definitely something to watch.
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We got a lemon
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Finally some action on the CMC
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I think it's a combination of: - The forecasts calling for a hyperactive season - People are stuck at home bored because of this whole pandemic thing so we are trying to find any kind of excitement we can find - We are expecting big things because it's 2020 Speaking for myself, this has been the most boring summer of my life. My only excitement every day is waiting for the next model run.
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Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"
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What a weak storm to break Katrina's record. Watch we get to the Greek letters by mid September with nothing stronger than a cat 1...
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What are the chances it can pull a Jeanne?
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Is that how it is every year? I feel like this year is different because this summer sucked, no one traveled, no one was really able to do anything fun, everyone just stayed home doing nothing, so we're all just here waiting for some action.
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So are the models just that bad this year? The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing. Do you think it blows before those dates or after?
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From what I read, shear has decreased significantly and the only limiting factor now is dry air.
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06z back with the storm.
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9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify.
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If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months!
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There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however... 1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe 2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly... 3) It's 2020
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Hey wake up! GFS only 384 hours out which means this is gonna happen!
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The 12z Euro and CMC are still hinting at MDR development in 10 days.
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No other models showing this but the CMC is on to storm entering the Caribbean next weekend...
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Yeah that was talked about a lot during the Irma-Jose-Maria trio in 2017 that all went over the same area in a short amount of time. It's upwelling.
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I don't mean to get too ahead of ourselves but there's ANOTHER massive wave about to move off of Africa...
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Looks like maybe Irma v2?
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Euro has a strong cat 2 barreling towards the SE coast. 10 days out, but still...
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Interesting last frame of the 12z CMC. Gonzalo intact heading into Texas and the next wave intact heading towards the Bahamas/Florida. GFS still not developing that next wave at all. But CMC was the only model spot on developing Gonzalo so...
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Many Euro ensembles bring that next wave to major hurricane status. And strangely the GFS isn't even showing it.
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The Euro has been getting more aggressive with the wave behind 99L. That might be more interesting to watch.
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Convection has picked up on 99L over the last few hours...
