cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out. I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.
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Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...
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Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day. Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias. On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory? Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger. Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula.
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Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm. NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...
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Although way out in fantasy land, the GFS and the Para are showing consistent signs of a Caribbean storm forming first week of October.
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How about they just retire the greek letter and not use it anymore? What are the chances that enough greek letters are retired that they eventually run out of letters? I'd say zero.
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The GFS and Para have been hinting at a Caribbean storm at the end of the month. The 06z Para shows it crossing Florida and riding up the east coast.
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Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust.
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Xiomara? Is that even a name?
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Euro showing another low rider heading into the Caribbean, I assume would be Vicky.
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It looks like there's an area of convection out ahead of 95L around 50W. Any chance this can spin up?
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What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?
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6z GFS taking an Irma route across the Keys and up the west coast of Florida
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Happy peak of hurricane season day to all!
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Probably this one? Looks like a bad surge event for Tampa Bay...
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Where are you seeing this? The GFS is loading super slow for me.
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12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay...
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This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up.
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Euro goes crazy in the 12z run
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Right, hence the "seeing a lot of signs", yet haven't seen much discussion about it here so I brought it up.
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Still a long way away but I'm seeing a lot of signs for the next wave (would be Sally) to be a low rider and possibly make it across the Atlantic.
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That wave south of Hispanola is the one that the GFS Para was calling to become a hurricane to slam into the northeast earlier this week but then backed off. It's got some spin to it already....
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Euro shows two cyclones in the Atlantic
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Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now.
