cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify.
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If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months!
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There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however... 1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe 2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly... 3) It's 2020
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Hey wake up! GFS only 384 hours out which means this is gonna happen!
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The 12z Euro and CMC are still hinting at MDR development in 10 days.
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No other models showing this but the CMC is on to storm entering the Caribbean next weekend...
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Yeah that was talked about a lot during the Irma-Jose-Maria trio in 2017 that all went over the same area in a short amount of time. It's upwelling.
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I don't mean to get too ahead of ourselves but there's ANOTHER massive wave about to move off of Africa...
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Looks like maybe Irma v2?
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Euro has a strong cat 2 barreling towards the SE coast. 10 days out, but still...
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Interesting last frame of the 12z CMC. Gonzalo intact heading into Texas and the next wave intact heading towards the Bahamas/Florida. GFS still not developing that next wave at all. But CMC was the only model spot on developing Gonzalo so...
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Many Euro ensembles bring that next wave to major hurricane status. And strangely the GFS isn't even showing it.
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The Euro has been getting more aggressive with the wave behind 99L. That might be more interesting to watch.
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Convection has picked up on 99L over the last few hours...
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From what I understand, dry air is the main limiting factor right now in the MDR. Looks like it stays dry for the next couple weeks with a final blast of dry air around August 1 but behind that it looks like mostly moist air moving off of Africa. Am I reading this right?
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So the GFS is now out to August 3 with no signs of development. When does that proverbial switch get turned on?
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Not sure how reliable it is but the CMC gets pretty aggressive with that wave.
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Today's 12z GFS finally shows some development at the latest hour near Florida. It's obviously a long way away but it looks like the same wave that the Euro hints at developing in MDR less than 10 days out.
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The 00z GFS shows a depression forming 100 hours out and then intensifying to 974 mb at hour 174. Wonder when the NHC will pick up on it.
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Looks like the next system could be the little end of the front hanging and developing off the coast of Georgia this weekend. Probably minor impacts for the Florida/Georgia coast then the bigger stuff stays out to sea. GFS shows maybe a hurricane OTS.
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So is the rain that has already fallen in Africa going to impact peak season? In other words, if it totally stops raining right now, are the pieces already in place for an active MDR during peak season?
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The GFS backed off the June 17 storm for a few days but is back with it on today's 12z run. This run has it going right into the northern Gulf coast so it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
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I know it's way down the line but the GFS has consistently shown on multiple runs another storm forming in the western Caribbean around June 17. The GFS did a great job forecasting Cristobal from about the same time out, so it could be another one to watch.
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I know this is hour 384 of the GFS (which means nothing), but this is quite a screenshot!
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We now have four straight GFS runs (yesterday 18Z, today 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) showing a big tropical storm in the Gulf on June 7.
