bigtenfan

This!! By the time that the enviornmentalist and their lawyers are done with this it will take 4 years to get permits!

Follow up question: Would a stronger storm that much further out have a better chance of poleward movement even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high? I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

Thanks so much for the quick response.

Question: With the greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

Perfect for Phila Eagles fans that soon after the Super Bowl. Kind of gives a new meaning to the term Philly Special.

Now you have done it. Started a thread. The kiss of death.

Glad that I can help

Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year.

Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve?

It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC

Looking somewhat further ahead: Some of this morning long range guidance has storm this doing a full loop once off shore and circling around to be a threat to the SE coast of Florida. Are the steering currents that crazy for that to be a reasonable possibility?

If the wave is already out there and if it was considered even a lower level threat to the islands/FL/SEUS I would think that the NHC would have at least a 20% Lemon for development over the next 7 days. If the sheer isn't there Is it the dry air that is preventing serious development?

The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.

Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.

I flew to Phila out of Fort Lauderdale today. On ascent the Sahara dust was very apparent.

Absolutely The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right. I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

Did the fact that was worst at the airport itself have anything to do with heat generated from all of the jet engines?

I am not sure that I am putting this in the correct forum. Do any Mets on the board have a scientific explanation as to the cause of the biggest single day rainfall in Florida history? I almost had a very personal stake in this as my wife's flight out of FLL got off the ground an hour before they stopped all flights in and out. She said that the ascent was very turbulent. I have seen very little discussion of what was truly a history making event. Thanks in advance

Back to weather banter. It would be funny if DKs 2 inch prediction for DC turns out to be right. It would be even funnier if he overestimated.

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds

Thanks so much for the quick answer

At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?

Drove from Exton to Malvern to Paoli. Light snow the entire way. Pretty to look at in the headlights.

Question for the experts on the board. In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower. Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian? Thanks in advance