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bigtenfan

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Everything posted by bigtenfan

  1. bigtenfan
    When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days.
  2. bigtenfan
    Watching a Netflix documentary on Katrina now. It is very difficult to watch. The human suffering was much worse than it was depicted at the time.
  3. bigtenfan
    That is what the HH GFS shows but what I think is a bigger statement is that in the midst of peak season a very bullish poster can only find threats in a 384 hour map in the HH GFS
  4. bigtenfan
    I read an article in the NYT recently that said that the recovery effort cost the government $140 Billion. The gist of the article was how little there is to show for it as so much of the money went to politically connected consultants and the government bureaucracy that wasted it either through incompetence or outright fraud and corruption.
  5. bigtenfan

    Winter 2025-26

    bigtenfan replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Philadelphia's official measurement for snow is done across the Delaware River from the airport in National Park NJ. That particular spot is not really representative of the Phila area or for that matter most of Phila itself. That could have something to do with the low official measurements.
  6. bigtenfan
    Maybe it is just me but looking at the radar everything to our southwest seems to be moving almost due east. When is the precip going to turn NE?
  7. bigtenfan
    I got stuck in Brunswick Georgia back in 1989 for 3 days as I 95 was shut down. When we finally got moving it took 6 hours to go the 60 miles to Jacksonville. In the pre smart phone days the lack of a camera prevented me from getting a picture of the Welcome to Florida sign covered in snow and ice. Not only did they not have plows but they also could not use salt as it would get in the ground water .
  8. bigtenfan
    Snow started at the Linc
  9. bigtenfan
    Dream shattered last night if only they had receivers that could catch a pass
  10. bigtenfan
    That OSU PSU final is getting closer and closer
  11. bigtenfan
    They are going to play a lot better than they played last night if they are going to win the Natty. They were sloppy last night and it was case of superior talent wearing down the opposition at the end. They will not have the same talent advantage against either Georgia or ND.
  12. bigtenfan
    Imagine the commissioner of the SEC sitting in his living room watching an PSU OSU final in the home town of his conference. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that.
  13. bigtenfan
    Actually that is not true LC who was the TV met on I believe Chanel 17 sniffed this out a full week in advance
  14. bigtenfan
    For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.
  15. bigtenfan
    I don’t care if it produces 500 ACE as long as it stays OTS.
  16. bigtenfan
    After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface.
  17. bigtenfan
    As long as it stays in the middle of the ocean bothering no one but the fish and maybe shipping interest let it roll up all of the ACE numbers that it wants. Same goes for the wave coming off of Africa
  18. bigtenfan
    Question for those on the board more knowledgeable than I am. I see that the TS warning is extended all the way down the Florida east coast yet the TS Wind speed probabilities for MIA. FLL and WPB are only 7, 12 and 14% respectively. If the probabilities are that low why does the TS warning extend down that far? Thanks in advance.
  19. bigtenfan
    Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter.
  20. bigtenfan
    Very little in the way of other model support for that run even from its own ensembles. The EPS also has very little support that I can see.
  21. bigtenfan
    I don't know about that. The GFS looks to have backed off at 12z from its aggressive 6Z look. The CMC looks about the same. The Icon has nothing. The EC at 0Z had nothing through 240h and the EPS had very little through 360 for a time period going into the peak season. This is NOT a season cancel response. As I mentioned in a previous post I am just taking it one day at a time with every day showing no major threats a day closer to the finish line.
  22. bigtenfan
    I have read enough of your posts to know that your thinking is along the lines of mine. Don't mind the ACE as long as no land is threatened I would also like to see a( high) bust on the NS forecast. I for one am just taking it one day at a time. Every day that the ensembles do not show a consistent threat in the next 14-15 days is one day closer to the finish line.
  23. bigtenfan
    As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.
  24. bigtenfan
    Looking at the sharp right turn of the NHC Cone it looks like the NHC is buying the Euro solution for now.
  25. bigtenfan
    For now the GFS appears to be on its own island on this. It does not appear to have support from even its own ensembles.
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