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bigtenfan

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Everything posted by bigtenfan

  1. bigtenfan
    Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps.
  2. bigtenfan
    Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority of the ensembls look to be north of Florida
  3. bigtenfan
    Given how far East most of the plots are I would say Carolinas more so than Florida. Especially South Florida
  4. bigtenfan
    With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa?
  5. bigtenfan
    I see it as a situation of buying time. While the models are certainly not the be all to end all, the fact that they now go out to Aug 31 with really nothing in the MDR means to me that if it verifies we will have gotten through the first 25% of peak season without any majors. I know that it can change on a dime but as a Palm Beach County property owner I am just taking it model run by model run.
  6. bigtenfan
    Hey: Philly could get 300% of last years total and still end up with less than an inch for the season.
  7. bigtenfan
    I will never forget when he was in Philly he was the first to sniff out the blizzard of 1996 over a week in advance.
  8. bigtenfan
    Have to hand it to Isotherm. While many others( not all by any means) were honking for a great winter Isotherm looks to have hit this winter right on the nose despite how unpopular of an opinion it was back in November when he called it.
  9. bigtenfan
    I have always wondered what would have happened if the Eagles Cowboys play off game that was played in Dallas on the day of the Jan 1996 blizzard was played in Philly instead.
  10. bigtenfan
    You mean the same fv3 that gave Philly 2 feet of snow last new years eve?
  11. bigtenfan
    The one coming off Cape Verde now looks almost certain to be a threat to shipping lanes only. The orange coming out behind it also looks like it might recurve.
  12. bigtenfan
    I am in Boca Raton about a half mile form the ocean and we are still under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch. I certainly have no problem with either being issued when they were but at this point not having had any wind gust of even minimal TS strength much less hurricane strength I think that at least the hurricane watch could have been taken down and the TS warning downgraded to a TS watch by now.
  13. bigtenfan
    Crazy weather all around. I was at West Palm Beach airport yesterday afternoon and there was 2.66 inches officially in 36 minutes or almost 4.5 inches per hour.
  14. bigtenfan
    Looks like the 12z GFS never really fully develops it and takes a weak system harmlessly out to sea
  15. bigtenfan
    Pretty to look at and doesn't mess up the roads. Not the worst thing in the world.
  16. bigtenfan
    Actually that may have been Evan Myers
  17. bigtenfan
    Joe Soble. Joe Lundberg Evan Abrams
  18. bigtenfan
    How many digital feet of snow has the Para had this winter so far? I would estimate several feet .
  19. bigtenfan
    I think that the entire concept of using analogs is a somewhat flawed science now as many of the analogs are from years when the planet and more specifically the oceans was not as warm of a place as they are now.
  20. bigtenfan
    That looks like more than a tick north. About 70 miles or so
  21. bigtenfan
    Very bullish forecast to say the least. Even more so than JB
  22. bigtenfan
    I can't help to think that Florence still has a trick or two up its sleeve and has yet to show all of its cards.
  23. bigtenfan
    Even starting further south the trailing system at least very early on looks most likely to be a fish storm as well.
  24. bigtenfan
    Actually looking at the 12Z Euro it shows that Florence has no less than 3 siblings behind it. The first 2 looks to have gotten past 20N before hitting 50w. Using what I think is the Don Sutherland rule those 2 should not be a threat to the US Mainland. the 3rd one looks to be too early to tell.
  25. bigtenfan
    After last season as a Florida home owner I have no complaints about that.
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