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bigtenfan

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Everything posted by bigtenfan

  1. bigtenfan
    The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either: The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend.
  2. bigtenfan
    And only about 44-48 model runs to go.
  3. bigtenfan
    Is it forecasted to recurve? If so will it have an effect on North American weather patterns? I seem to remember that a recurving typhoon had an effect on the 2013-2014 winter.
  4. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much
  5. bigtenfan
    What is the record for ACE for a single storm in the Atlantic Basin?
  6. bigtenfan
    Vine Street A major east west road through the center of phila https://www.instagram.com/p/CTUsaQwL98Q/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=7419923e-5480-4246-b83e-6d4601465b35
  7. bigtenfan
    I have to believe that the pumps have their own generators
  8. bigtenfan
    Looks like surprisingly few head for Florida
  9. bigtenfan
    Nice area. Many years ago I hiked up tp the site of a WW2 B17 crash on Crown Point( 10800ft). The snow was still there in late June.
  10. bigtenfan
    After a look at the 6Z GFS I am surprised how quiet this sub forum is.
  11. bigtenfan
    When is the last time it was several degrees warmer in Phila than Boca Raton FL on Christmas morning?
  12. bigtenfan
    Nothing like having a 995 low in a very good spot and having the 540 line north of Quebec City.
  13. bigtenfan
    I have a flight out of FLL tomorrow at 10.45am What are my chances?
  14. bigtenfan
    More like a moderate ts at worst. 10m winds in the 30 to 40 kt range. Pressure in the mid to high 980s
  15. bigtenfan
    As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that we are not even into October yet and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps.
  16. bigtenfan
    Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib season about to start what makes you say that that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.
  17. bigtenfan
    Does anybody know if the NWS has a database of lightning strikes containing the exact day . time and location of lightning strikes? thank you in advance.
  18. bigtenfan
    I was just comparing on an apples to apples basis the same scribbled blob from the previous update. The little north curve can make a major difference downstream.
  19. bigtenfan
    Big difference in the initial NHC projected track of the wave about to come off of Africa. It looks to have gone from a potential Caribbean cruiser to a potential fish storm.
  20. bigtenfan
    No complaints from this Palm Beach County homeowner
  21. bigtenfan
    It is not just TC genesis that the models are having trouble with. I think that their accuracy on winter storms has declined as well. Long range forecasting while never great has almost gone totally off the rails. If i had to take a guess I would say that the models are not yet skilled enough to properly handle the pace of global warming. Many of the analogs that are being used are based on a cooler planet overall than we have now.
  22. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much for your response
  23. bigtenfan
    It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?
  24. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much
  25. bigtenfan
    Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th? Thanks in advance
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