bigtenfan

I am not sure that I am putting this in the correct forum. Do any Mets on the board have a scientific explanation as to the cause of the biggest single day rainfall in Florida history? I almost had a very personal stake in this as my wife's flight out of FLL got off the ground an hour before they stopped all flights in and out. She said that the ascent was very turbulent. I have seen very little discussion of what was truly a history making event. Thanks in advance

Back to weather banter. It would be funny if DKs 2 inch prediction for DC turns out to be right. It would be even funnier if he overestimated.

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds

Thanks so much for the quick answer

At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?

Drove from Exton to Malvern to Paoli. Light snow the entire way. Pretty to look at in the headlights.

Question for the experts on the board. In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower. Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian? Thanks in advance

So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area? That would still make it a N outlier.

Classic example of the old saying that even in a lesser year all you need is one storm to make it memorable.

That map is for tropical storm winds and depending on the exact detail shows the landfall area at a 50 to 80 percent chance of TS winds I am sure that the 50 and 64 kt wind maps showed even a lesser chance I am sure that map was based on the GFS which failed miserably in this storm at the cost of many many lives

The thing is that Florida actually has some of the best and strongest building codes in the country at least since 2005 and to a lesser extent since 1992. My own house here in Boca is built to withstand 155MPH winds and a recent garage door replacement is rated at 235mph winds. You will never see wood frame new construction in Florida. Everything is reinforced concrete and cinder block. Personally I think that an issue that needs to be addressed is how the GFS and equally important the hurricane models that are based off of it was totally taken to school by not only the Euro but the UK model as well. This is not the first time that this has happened yet the NHC continues to weigh their forecast to what the GFS says.

Looking at the Euro which in itself is still very much an eastern outlier it would be more of a direct hit to the SW cost of Florida into central Florida . SE FL would still get some hefty TS force winds out of this but not a crippling blow.

That is still a fairly large westward move from 00Z which had it going right over both of our houses here in Boca.

I wonder how the 12Z Euro will look as they were by far the NE outlier at 00Z

Beat me to it by a minute

I am surprised that no one has mentioned what the fantasy range of the 6z GFS is showing. If that were to verify that would be at least a $250b storm. A major probable cat 4 straddling the coast from Miami to the Outer Banks

Looks like the latest NHC cone has moved east by around 100 miles or so.

This may be a totally off the wall thought but over on the tropic site Storm2k there was a post bringing up 1976 which featured season long heat and drought in Europe and a similar hurricane season( SO FAR) to what we are having now. Those of us old enough remember the winter that followed in the east: historically cold but really not that much snow which was followed by 2 pretty cold and snowy winters. Do any experts on this board have any thoughts on that analog?

The real question: Does it form before midnight tonight to spoil the 0/0/0 for August.

I am not an expert but looking at the lows to the north it definitely looks like there will be a weakness to allow it to escape OTS if it does form.

Interesting solution. It does not appear to have any other model support even from it's own ensembles. Keep in mind that this was the same model that yesterday at this time had this doing a virtual 90 degree right turn to the NE.

True but the way the models have bounced around this year I can't get too concerned about a few ensamble members 300+/- hours out.

Me as well It is hard to tell especially on the EPS which only goes out to 240hr but it looks like the projected trajectory of the vast majority of the members is suggesting recurve.

That 0z GFS run was very scary for S FL. Not only was it a direct hit but it hung around the S FL area for something like 24/30 hours with the rainfall measured in feet not inches. The fact that it was only 1 run and it totally disappeared on the next run and GEFS support for that solution was tepid at best I am skeptical of that actually happening. As for the Euro, yes they have the second wave. To my very much untrained eye it does look like the 500MB surroundings will allow an escape out to sea. If you look at the last few frames there are certainly signs of a recurve. All that said maybe it is time for us in S FL to review our stocks of hurricane supplies.

The fact that the NHC doesn't even have a 5 day lemon for the lead wave or the second one for that matter tells me that they at least for now are not buying what the GFS is selling. That can certainly change though if other models support what the GFS issaying.