cbmclean

In retrospect, I wonder if 2016-2017 wasn't the first herald of the coming ---------------------------PDO episode. I remember there being comment that year that it was barely a Nina, (might have been cool neutral by some metric) yet the atmosphere seemed to couple extremely strongly in a La Nina mode.

You can tell your employer that you have come down with a "sickness" and be completely truthful: snow sickness.

Take her to visit Mt PSU. Sometimes it snows there if you look at the sky too hard...

Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year. Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice. We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal. As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air.

I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned. Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet. But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall.

I found this link for monthly. Doesn;t include October yet though https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

How about the "Commies"?

I care; if we've lost "Big Vodka Cold Joe", it's a bad sign.

Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO?

Got 0.32 in the bucket this month, it has been incredible feast/famine for our area since May or so: either sopping wet or bone dry.

But look at that 50/50 trough! Just kidding, I'll see myself to the door.

I don't think anybody has been hyping a pattern change in early November, on here at least. There was some guidance which briefly suggested an improvement after the 1st week of November, but there wasn't any hype, just an observation.

Man I despise this raging -PDO.

They're just setting up for the inevitable post where they gleefully exclaim the complete turnaround in mid-range modelling overnight shows us torching. Seriously though I can't even get mad at the negative naysayers anymore because they are always right these days it seems. The only time they have been wrong lately is last year when many of them were fooled by the universal agreement on the modelled nirvana pattern.

I'll set the over/under on Pacific Jet Extensions as 2.5. The combo of the PJE and raging SE ridge has been simply killer. The PJE scours all cold from the entire continent. After it shuts off, the cold air slowly builds back from the source regions but it takes forever fighting against the SER. By the time it almost gets here...BOOM, another Pac Puke. Rinse and repeat ad naseum.

Made a valiant run at 11" but didn't quite make it. Ended with 10.77". Two out of the last three months over 10". It's been soupy.

Good gracious! What is your 3 month total for July/August/September?

You've really been in the bullseye this month; I just passed 7" today. I recall you were one of the worst hit by the flash drought back in June. Weather is fickle.

Apparently we're having a record -NAO for September. Still haven't seen any snow.

Nino, Nina, neutral, weak, strong, whatever: I don't think it makes any difference anymore. We were a marginal snow environment. Now we are beyond marginal.

Not to bemoan the past, but on that last play when Lamar took off running, did anyone else think that he had a better shot of just running straight in instead of the lateral? For the record, I'm a Dolphins fan so I'm actively rooting for my quarterback to retire for his own good.

I had the same thought. Come December it will wake up and be in our face.

It's not an arctic SST plot, just a global SST plot which show some mild coolness in the arctic waters. TBH it's probably skewed by the map projection but sadly these days its notable anytime the arctic waters are not on fire. It's in the pdf file here at the top of page 5. https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1831185547861114940?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1831186136410050579|twgr^3847f70096fb40c4642e071f9426502d5d50c64b|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fphilklotzbach%2Fstatus%2F1831186136410050579%3Ft%3DDKkvBGAWwanHEHBgGhKPHg26s%3D19#:~:text=https%3A//tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf

Thanks. I will try and plot it tonight. Looks like they have only been issuing an ACE prediction in April since 1995. June and August predictions go back to 1984.

Get a load of that unusual SST anomaly plot on page 5 of the CSU report. The arctic ocean basin actually with negative anomalies? I should screenshot and save to look back on fondly when the artic ocean finally finishes boiling off in 2035 or so.