cbmclean

Are there any realistic hopes for a more favorable pattern in say late January? Obviously the current one is unlikely to get it done.

If it degrades even slightly the crappy air mass will be insurmountable. Eta: Well maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but truthfully there is not a lot of wiggle room.

52.3 inches. Buffalo is unimpressed.

I accept it. Rooting for the west crew.

@Coldrain

So if warm phases mean we are screwed, and "cold" phases mean we may be screwed, we still prefer the cold phases, because screwage is not certain.

Let's not hate on the LR ensembles too much. The cold period that just passed was very disappointing, but it did occur, and it was reasonably impressive. The current warm period was also well advertised on the models.

We need snow.

Hmm, CFS has decent wave going into 1,2. We can hope.

From the Wikipedia article on the Pleistocene (I know it's Wikipedia but thought it was interesting nonetheless): According to Mark Lynas (through collected data), the Pleistocene's overall climate could be characterised as a continuous El Niño with trade winds in the south Pacific weakening or heading east, warm air rising near Peru, warm water spreading from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific, and other El Niño markers. So if the ice age was a continuous El Nino the new warm future will be...?

Back to square 1 on GEFS and GEPS. Day 10+ shows western trough and eastern ridge on both, somewhat less bad on the GEPS.

The answer is: none. Serious question, any idea what the mechanism is for this anomaly pattern? The mid-latitudes are on fire like its a +++++AO, but the arctic is warm as well, like its a -AO. I know the root cause, is Lord Voldemort, but I would like to understand the nature of how hit is happening.

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke? Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic". So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

So right now, do we care at all what goes on with the SPV? I was under the impression it only mattered (good or bad) if it was tightly coupled with the TPV.

I don't know. therapy bills are pretty expensive.

More a strat stretch. Nothing much to get excited about.

Certainly. Just noting the crappy results for that one model on that one run.

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384. -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

0z CMC give a bit of blue over you guys hours 198 -210.

Seems like 00z GFS was same as 18z in that after the big cutter I counted three short waves going Off The Shore.

Alert the media, all three NC climate sites had below average temps for December.

EPO domain looks nice as well. 50/50 high though. More WAR woes?

Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason. Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy.

I wouldn't say December was punted. More like we kept fumbling. The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points.

Never mind I misread that as talking about the EPS.