cbmclean

Yes.

If it was just a two-week "milder" spell, around normal +/- a few degrees, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But since the -PDOom period started (by that I mean ~2018 or so) every single Pacific crappy period has been long-lasting and with major warm anomalies. MAYBE this year is different with the EPO ridging tendency. I guess we'll see soon enough.

Can this year be the year that we can-kick and then rug-pull the crappy pattern, please?

Come on man we've been here. Every. Single. Year. Once the Pac craps out ~12/10, it's over for December. If you're lucky maybe you can start thinking about MLK day.

First ensemble support for Pacific collapse: Mark 2024-11-27 20:30 EST.

It's Joe Bastardi, top-shelf vodka cold, straight from Mother Russia

But then does the SER try to build? (at work so stuck working instead of looking at models )

I think the original question is one of potential interest? Perhaps there is a correlation between Siberian HP and Eastern Conus weather? Remember that ABNA index that Webb pulled out of the depths the other day.

I was wondering the same thing; is it possible for a pattern to "drain the source regions" of cold? Sort of like running out of hot water in the middle of a luxurious shower?

First mention of Pac collapse. Mark 2024-11-25 14:30 EST

The further we are from a December 2015 pattern, in general the happier I am. So far we're looking good in that realm.

I remember you have mentioned chose your house location specifically to maximize snow accumulation; it worked like a champ today.

Does this mean winter is 4x saved, or can we cache these and save the next three winters as well?

I know this is really banter since it is not relevant to this forum but 1989 was the year we had a white Christmas Eve in Fayetteville, NC! I'm hoping for a repeat but without you guys getting shafted, and also minus the tropical Jan/Feb.

Great, another index to obsess over.

Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss... No, I'm not scarred...

It's been several years where the most exciting thing to talk about has been tomato horn worms. Everyone is rusty...

You didn't stay inside out of sympathy?

Where can one find this?

For one thing 2013 - 14 wasn't in the depths of the pit of -PDO despair that we are currently. I think that that takes anything remotely like 2013-14 completely off the table, even in weakened form. But then again as others have noted 2013-14 was highly anomalous to start with.

As far as Webb, I didn't take that particular post of his as necessarily being optimistic, just noting some potential interest. Maybe some others you have seen have been more openly positive. In general I think that a lot of the optimism is just the early season hope combined with what looks like a pretty decent pattern for a week coming up. Sort of like how excited a bad football team's fans can be after they win the first game; they imagine themselves in the super bowl.

In retrospect, I wonder if 2016-2017 wasn't the first herald of the coming ---------------------------PDO episode. I remember there being comment that year that it was barely a Nina, (might have been cool neutral by some metric) yet the atmosphere seemed to couple extremely strongly in a La Nina mode.

You can tell your employer that you have come down with a "sickness" and be completely truthful: snow sickness.

Take her to visit Mt PSU. Sometimes it snows there if you look at the sky too hard...

Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year. Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice. We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal. As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air.