Sorry to stare: not because of NAM extrapolation. It's just that you remind me of someone famous. I bet if you weren't wearing a mask I could figure out who it is.
Actually there were widespread snow flurries in NC on Christmas day as a result of the forcing from that Mega-front. I saw some in Old Fort NC (just east of Asheville) and my parents saw some in Hope Mills (just southwest of Fayetteville). Of course, nothing stuck but it was still nice to see on Christmas.
Which three are those? I assume you include the NAO and AO. What is the third? PNA or EPO? I am assuming PNA because the EPO looked stuck positive for the foreseeable future when last I saw a few days ago.
Someone posted a twitter link where Ji had posted the first comment. I clicked on his name and went to his twitter feed. That is not what I expected Ji to look like. It did amuse me that his handle is "jhatem".
https://twitter.com/jhatem
No, If we are screwed, I would prefer to know it ahead of time, so I appreciated it. It was still sad, though. Speaking of Mersky, I haven't seen him around lately.
I am not disputing your larger point about the danger of the Pacific Doom Blob (it still haunts my dreams from last year). You have mentioned our unfortunate antecedent conditions. Maybe this look CAN produce, but only if it is not preceded by a month-long continent-wide torch? It would be interesting to go back and look at the preceding month or two before the snow periods of 1993, 1996, and 2010.
Last sustained cold to affect me was late December 2017/early January 2018. That was a legit cold period here, and I think up you guys way as well. Not sure where it's source was. Also, there was a pretty nice outbreak that hit the Midwest in Jan 2019, but never made it here.
You have mentioned that you don't feel as if super cold cross-polar flow is in the cards this year. What is your feeling about the feasibility of simply getting the Pacific to be mediocre enough to not overpower perfect NAO blocking?