cbmclean

My Dolphins completely bungled the tanking strategy.

GEFS has strong agreement on an initial peak at ~3.5, then a big spread. Check out the several members showing it go to +5.0. Also I thought it was hilarious how the second half of December has mostly been negative. Thanks a bunch, Pacific.

Actually it is not my place to tell you guys how to run your forum since I am just a guest. I would just be sad to see the MA forum turn into NE.

Well no one wants to hear it doesn't look good. But if it really doesn't look good, I'd rather hear the truth. In many human endeavors (war, business, love) some unwarranted optimism can actually be useful. If the founding fathers had been completely rational, they probably would have been like "meh - maybe later". But weather is not a human endeavor. No amount of positive thinking can materialize one single snow flake or move the 540 line south one meter. On a brighter note, I wish I had been here back in 2009 - 10. It must have been rocking and rolling. Or were people griping that they only got 12 while NW they got 24"?

Come on, let's keep it constructive. Or else we turn into the New England forum.

I understand your basic points. His concern is that the particular pattern which MAY develop in the Pacific is one which has historically very persistent when it does occur. IF it does occur and IF the NA does not play nice, then we will have a very high probability of toast. Just beware, there is a large portion of the forum which actively likes looking into the 10+ day range and trying to tease patterns to see what MAY be coming. Sometimes (perhaps most times) little or no value is found. Other times, however, meaningful predictions can be made. For example, this current pattern was identified by the EPS well ouside 10 days.

Certainly, I was just expressing gallows humor. However, the point can be made that the gloomy scenarios being painted by all three major ensembles is probably related to the crappy MJO pattern being advertised. Hopefully they are all wrong and we begin a grand tour of the good phases.

I have been lurking here for years and I do not think it is fair to characterize PSUHoffman as Doom and Gloom. He describes what he analyzes in the models, independent of his personal desires. Right now, the long term (past day 10) looks very grim. I understand that you believe that the models have no use past day 10, but we do not all agree.

Uh oh. About to be a slap fight. Led to a reaper sighting in the main thread.

That's right my precious, spend as little time as possible in the good phases, and at as low an amplitude as possible. Then rocket into the COD and exit in the bad phases again.

GEFS and GEPS show identical crap ridges in the east at 384. So that makes all three major ensembles giving us the finger at that time frame.

I can agree with that.

Right now, latest GEFS shows return to cool anomalies in the east around 228. GEPS a little slower at 234 or so. I can't see 2m EPS anomalies on TT, but at 850, cool anomalies in place by 216.

That is true. I don't think anyone who is responsible will claim to "know". But right now it appears that the preponderance of the evidence favors a higher probability of the Pacific being hostile for the long term.

Relying on the NAO is a scary place to be this decade.

Looks coolish, not necessarily cold. Which to be frank, is a still win for me. I love snow, but if I can't have it, I will take cool and dry. I hate winter torches.

Given the climatology of the MA, any realistic assessments should be pessimistic with regards to snow chances most of the time. The baseline median state is "poor".

What exactly is a "gradient look"? Looking at the EPS for the 6 - 10, I see a broad, kind of shallow trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the country, but with no -NAO support.. Is that just what gradient means in this context?

EPS leading the way is infinitely more encouraging than GEFS

That sounds great! Anxiously waiting.

Less filling?

If I understand correctly, a vaguely -EPO type look on the 0z EPS at 240. Impressive extent for 850 negative anomalies, although centered towards the western Great lakes, with very muted anomalies in my neck of the woods. Somewhat better for you guys, but still too far west for our tastes. Probably dry though? Sad +NAO as usual.

Reading up, found an interesting pre-season write-up for 2018-19. I post it here for other lurkers because it has a lot of good info about teleconnections. But reading it over I thought it was fascinating to revisit why there was so much positivity for some going into last year. Made me want to go back in time and grab him by the collar and yell "BEWARE THE MJO, IT WILL GO BATSH!T THROUGH THE WARM PHASES AND DEVOUR YOUR HOPES AND DREAMS!!!" But I can't. http://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

I am trying to learn a lot in a short time period so forgive the pestering. What shows you that it will be cold/dry vs cold? Also, why do areas of high geopotential heights cause blocks, but areas of low geopotential heights do not? What makes a pattern progressive vs blocky?

I was amused to see that by week 6 on the CFS weeklies the giant ridge N or Hawaii has migrated to a somewhat less unfortunate position. February will save us. Well maybe you guys. SE is probably still screwed.