cbmclean

Hopefully not the scene with the chainsaw.

PV bouncing around in all the wrong places?

Well our two-day-long emotional high appears to be over. Back to the despair zone.

PSU should be happy.

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters the last week and then has a bye, and they come out super rusty in the divisionals.

I know, I was just being silly since he specifically said not to head to the bridges.

I'm heading for a bridge. PSU cancelled winter.

Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.

Won't gave access to the models for a bit. GEP look good?

Hey Bob, I notice that this came from weatherBELL. Are you a longtime member? Is it worth the price?

Man, when they opened the January thread, they really brought the mojo.

Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico. 1899 redux. I'm sure it will happen.

Boo, hiss. ETA: This is definitely banter. Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread?

My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue. I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean. Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere.

I was completely unaware of this phenomenon. I haven't noticed anything consistent over the last 15 years, except general warmth. Any idea on what's behind it?

Well the Euro sniffed out the pac puke 15+ out. This should balance the karma. On a serious note, I can't see the TPV in that shot. Where did it go?

Yeah, I should have put it in banter to begin with. We are doing pretty well keeping the main thread streamlined. I remember him at Accuweather. I used to like Accuweather but it really seems to have gone down-hill and traded usability for flashy site design. Same crap happened to weatherunderground. I didn't realize JB was weatherbell. I have never really considered a pay service since it seems everything I need for my level I can get for free here or from tropical tidbits.

Yes, I think I remember you mentioning this concern last year. He has a pay site right, so constantly hyping snow might drive up subscriptions. But I also think he would have a lot of non-repeat customers after a while.

Doesn't the Canadian have a very notable cold bias?

Opinion of him is pretty negative on this site. I wonder how he got to be some famous in the first place. Did he just get lucky as few times?

How in the world did you manage to avoid the 20s during that November cold spell? I guess the oceans were still pretty warm at that time so a lot of moderation at the coast.

So anyone have any knowledge about weather dynamics in the high latitudes? How cold or not it is down here is largely a function of how much or how little arctic air we get shunted our way. But factors control how cold or mild the source regions are? Just naively, I might think that it is the inverse of the mid-latitudes. By that I mean, that high latitudes will tend to be mild if there is a large amount of arctic air transported down south, and will tend to be cold if they get isolated from the mids. Under that theory I would expect the arctic regions to be cold in a +AO, because they are isolated from the mids. Conversely, in a -AO, I would expect the source regions to be mild since they are constantly loosing cold to the south. But I don't consistently see that sort of anomaly pattern. Seems more often for anomalies to hemispherically correlated, or meridianally correlated. Its something I have been wondering about for a long time.

Meh.

I have seen some people mention complaints that ensemble members tend to follow the control these days. The way they say it is like its a new problem that was not present in the past. Is this a real thing? Are the EPS/GEPS "better dispersed"? How can you evaluate the sufficiency of dispersion? In other words, what leads to the conclusion that the GEFS is underdispersed instead of the Euro is overdispoersed?

Yeah, but an unending train of storms running into a Pacific/west trough serves to just pump up the trough, right?