cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Call me cautiously pessimistic.
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Happy Hour is now replaced with "DD" = "Despair Days"
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No, to be honest, it wasn't really sudden there were warning signs. But to be frank it seems like there is always some sort of warning sign, something that fights us. Sometimes they come to fruition, sometimes they disappear, sometimes they are brief, sometimes they are long. I would say that it has just been the last three days that it has become completely apparent that you could avoid the signs only by being in denial and intellectually dishonest. By the way, what is HH?
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Hard to not feel defeated today. The wheels came off the bus, the bus kept sliding and slammed into an orphanage and burst into flames. The wheels kept bouncing and slammed into a van load of nuns and kittens.
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GEFS MJO progression argues for a non-evil Pacific. EPS predictably less positive. I'll just convince myself that that the smaller overall spread in the GEFS means it has a better handle.
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White flags raised. The hope that it will be transient just took another hit. Dang it, when the PAC goes to crap it really digs in. Has there ever been a "transient" crappy Pac?
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I was confused about CAPEs timeframe. I appreciate the educational post, though
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It was my fault. I did not realize that the CAPE post was about AFTER Christmas, so I was confused. The resulting PSU post was very informative for newbies though.
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I haven't actually looked at the runs so forgive the question if its stupid, but no matter how perfect the track and how strong it gets, won't it be too warm for anything frozen?
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Ah, I see. Makes me ponder the potential future of NWP. I wonder how much improvement is feasible before they start running up against the "limits of chaos". Also, even if they can improve the equations and throw more supercomputer power at it, there is also the factor of the actual input data in terms of resolution and accuracy. Although I have heard that improving weather satellites can help a lot there, since apparently a lot of the assimilated data comes from satellites these days.
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I am asking in all seriousness. Do the regional models serve any observable purpose? I would think that the only reason for their existence would be to more accurately model the area of their domain. But based on the discussion on here I cannot see any evidence that, say, the NAM is more accurate over NA than the overall GFS etc. So why do they exist at all?
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Are you a day ahead of us in Easley?
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An interesting post from one of the best MA forum posters. Sigh.
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Thanks PSU. Your knowledge is appreciated as always. Do you mind if I share this with the SE forum?
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Ah I did not notice that. Maybe it had to shut down when some of the members started breaking outside the freaking box.
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Well, it seems both the GEFS and the EPS are agreeing it is time to head for the bunker. Haven't checked the GEPS lately. As far as MJO, the EPS has it floating around in the COD. GEPS seems to be predicting an emergence into phase 5 or 6. Euro seasonals has A LOT of spread but mean is 5/6. Then there is the Austrailian model. It clearly shows direction.
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GEFS MJO forecast. Kind of surprises me that the Pacific would be so hostile with this MJO forecast.
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So is it blocking or not blocking? I don't know enough to tell the difference myself but some discussion in the main thread is claiming that it is not blocking at all but rather super progressive.
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Got 2.46 for the event.
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Unfortunately should be well above normal after the looking Pac puke. Still not too bad for December in this new era.
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Nearly six hours unfortunately. NC has a couple of rinky-dink ski areas which aren't much closer. Went to one once but predictably it was in the middle of a warm period so it was kind of pathetic. Still had fun though. I have tried to interest the wife in a compromise with snowshoeing, but she still has no interest. She hates cold.
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I have heard that said repeatedly, but I have to admit that I am skeptical. From my understanding, it is clear that model verification scores have significantly improved over the last two decades, so I have a hard time envisioning why they would become more volatile. Perhaps the weather itself has become more volatile and therefore more difficult to simulate? But again, that should show up in decreased verification scores.
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I've wanted to get onto skiing for a while. Living in eastern NC with parents who have no interest didn't start me off well. My wife has no interest in it, so not much hope of it anytime soon.
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Man I have enjoyed the seasonal-to-cool aspect of the first half-of December, but man I wish that the Pac puke had chosen that time to go apesh!t instead of right at Christmas.
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Eh, only took it until D8/9 to cave. The more painful ones are when it is insistent at like D4/5 and then caves.
