NCBlizzard

Ended up with about 3.75” total here 4 miles north of RDU (measured every hour or so on a snowboard). Measuring on the board where I didn’t clear off throughout the storm, the actual snow depth is about 3” due to compaction and wind. Great storm! Beautiful out

Closing in on 4" here about 4 miles north of RDU. Rates were incredible there for a bit under that last band. Definitely overperformed my expectations!

Also beautiful here. Just did similar myself taking the dog for a walk. Roads are totally covered. As I was walking back inside, a cop came whizzing by and a minute later I heard sirens, so I figure it's slick out

Closing in on 0.25" here about 4 miles N of RDU. Total snow depth (i.e., also including what fell last night with the front) is 0.5". Snowfall rates quickly picking up. Air temp is down to 23.5

About 1/4" snow before the changeover here about 3 mi. north of RDU. Freezing rain starting to mix in with the sleet now... was hoping to stay mostly sleet a bit longer

I’m at 31.3 with a wet bulb of 30.2 in South Durham, right at I-40. A solid glaze on elevated surfaces/trees (maybe 0.05”), but sidewalks and roads are just wet. I’m surprised we got this cold here based on trends late last night. At 9 AM, my station was 2.2°F colder than the NAM and 1.4°F colder than the HRRR projected. Some more light precip moving in now so we’ll see if those trends mean anything at this point. Oddly enough, GFS/RDPS have been the most accurate on temps so far.

I agree it definitely runs colder, and sometimes by a lot. At the very least, it seems to run 2-4°F too cold on average. RGEM forecast low for tonight here is 15, which is 6 degrees cooler than the NWS forecast and around 10 degrees cooler than all other models except the Canadian. I have a hard time believing we get to 15 here, but we shall see…

Yep, been stuck in that hole for a while here in south Durham. I noticed it on the HRRR but hoped it was a fluke. Overall, had a brief rain/snow/sleet mix early this morning 5-6 am, leaving a trace on elevated surfaces. Then a rain/snow mix since 7:30. I didn't have my hopes too high overall though. And you're right about the Triangle being really lucky the past several years. Can't complain much at all given that.

Transitioned from a mix to all rain in south Durham (near Southpoint mall for those familiar) an hour or so ago. 34.9 currently, which is about 1-2°F cooler than the NAM/HRRR forecast for 8AM.

Rain/snow/sleet mix in South Durham. Temperature has dropped to 36.7.

While every model was too warm with dew point/wet bulb temperature here at my place in Durham, still just a cold 33° rain. Below is the forecast dew point error for 9 AM compared against the 32.7°F recorded at my station: HRRR +0.8° GFS +1.1° RGEM +2.2° NWS NDFD +2.3° NAM +2.3°

I'm near Southpoint Mall and all snow. It's really coming down. My station is reading 34 and wet bulb is almost to 32 Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I noticed as well, and the same is happening at my house with the dewpoint dropping at -2.8°/hr now. There seems to be a stretch of locally higher DP through parts of S Orange, S Durham, and W Wake county but hopefully that disappears quickly. NAM dewpoint forecast was about a degree higher at 8AM that what I measured with my station.

For my house in S. Durham, the NAM is way warmer than the current air temperature, with GFS/HRRR being the best right now.

There is a snow melt forecast variable, which I assume accounts for things like ground/air temperature, and that would be incorporated to calculate the snow depth. I also believe it accounts for snow density/compaction. I'm not sure of the overall accuracy. You can see all of the forecast variables here: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/nam/nam.t00z.bgrdsf00.tm00.shtml