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sarcean

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About sarcean

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGSO
  • Location:
    Greensboro, NC

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  1. sarcean

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Hard to measure but has to be over 10 in Boone so far and still dumping
  2. sarcean

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Driving in Boone is a little sketchy right now 4 to 5 inches of wet heavy snow on the road
  3. sarcean

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Snowing pretty good in Boone
  4. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Would of been happy with the totals in Greensboro but driving to Boone right now to a cabin. Looks like I'll hit jackpot there. The question is when I'll be able to get back to Greensboro....Wilkesboro and Winston Salem in between look like they will get slammed too
  5. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Crap I'm headed up to Boone shortly. I need to get on the road if it's already in Asheville!
  6. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    RAH Southern stream shortwave over the Lower MS Valley Saturday evening will eject east-northeast across the Southeast US through Sunday night. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast States on Saturday will re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. Preceded by a strong cold Arctic high that will build into the area from the north Saturday and Saturday night, there is still high confidence that a significant winter weather event will unfold across central NC late Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for some lingering light precipitation Sunday night as the next shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Forecast confidence in snow amounts are highest along and north of the I-85, including the Triad, where the strong CAD High to our north and associated diabatic cooling will keep the low-level cold air locked in place and where the warm nose will be less prominent. So after a potential brief mix at onset Saturday night, the predominate p-type will be mostly snow through late Sunday afternoon and evening, transitioning to a light freezing rain/drizzle, once we loss saturation aloft and lift/forcing begins to weaken. Have kept snowfall amounts in the 8 to 12 inches range, with the bulk of this falling between 4 am to pm Sunday. An additional 0.10" of ice from light freezing rain/drizzle on top of the snow is possible. Given, this is the area where confidence is highest, will upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning across the far NW Piedmont counties, including Person County. Just east of this heavy snow area(south and east of I-85) and west of Interstate 95, given the potential for the warm nose aloft to support multiple p-types throughout much of the event, forecast confidence in snow amounts are much lower in this area, which would greatly cut-back on snow accumulation. However, the latest 12 km NAM has trended colder both in the low-levels and aloft across the central/northern Piedmont, as well into the northern coastal Plain. Given the colder thermal profiles, snow and sleet could now linger into afternoon/early evening, before changing over to freezing rain/drizzle with loss of saturation and lift aloft Sunday evening/night. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch east to include areas west of I-95. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with expectations of a sharp cut-off along the eastern edge of these area. IF the warm air aloft is indeed stronger than advertised, the impacts across this area will still be great, with the potential for ice accumulations from freezing rain of 0.10-0.20" possible. Finally, for areas east of I-95 and across the far se counties, rain Saturday night/Sunday morning could briefly mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over to rain. At this time, snow and ice amounts are expected to be light. As such, will be omitted from the watch. Temperatures: Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s, with only a 2 to 3 degree recovery expected on Sunday. Lows Sunday night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads and surfaces will linger through Monday.
  7. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

  8. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    at this point I would trust the NAM-3k on precip type!
  9. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Greensboro is only like 50-60 miles from you and I believe we are getting a ton. I'm sure you will be fine!
  10. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

  11. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Well it takes over for the GFS in less than a month and the formulas could still be tweaked (still in beta) but here is hoping it's accurate
  12. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    and the high end map
  13. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    wow RAH call map
  14. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Significant accumulations of snow combined with sleet and freezing rain is expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches combined with ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. The greatest snow amounts are likely to be in the Triad, where amounts could approach 10 inches.
  15. sarcean

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Near Boone (KTNB) is 17.4" with a QPF of 1.91"
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