Typhoon Tip

models appear to smear the remnants of Chantal along and S of that gradient

general line of TCU punching the alto stratus gunk lined up along the southern horizon, connecting your downpours to some training in CT. Obs show DPs are 75 to 80 S of that line, and 68 to 72 up my way. It's a modest theta-e gradient but the interface is collocated with convection. Also, temps generally 82 to 86 in the soup, and 88 to 92 up here where it's modestly drier.

yeah, more meme-able adjectives. LOL make it worth doom-scrolling time with quality dystopian addiction drip. j/k. I used to like the term "thundershowers" ? They used to have that in NOAA weather radio days of like circa 1978... I know ( dating myself...) because I was lad then, curled up with my AM radio like "normal kids" would cuddle a pet, waiting for the next pre-recorded run through of the forecast hoping and praying for a tornado watch. Anyway, when they said thundershowers, I knew it wasn't a big deal. They said thunderstorms when there were elevated risk days.

sorry about all that... I'm furloughed this week so idle hands. LOL -

I saw a funny Instagram yesterday. It went something like, 'They (meaning Texans) voted to dismantle the NOAA and the weather service; now, they are blaming the NOAA and national weather service for keeping them uninformed' I mean it was better than that delivery but something like that... It's funny because like all humor, if there isn't a soupcon of truth about it, it's patently harsh sarcasm. It's like with the global warming denial stuff - people deny because they are enabled to deny. It's that simple. Suppose there were a fist gripped around all testicles that squeezed every time a person attempted to deny that fist - pick whatever metaphor works for chicks. A person would suddenly be (or become!) quite motivated in the "fist activism" movement, wouldn't they? Likewise, if whenever a bloke flouted AGW an excruciating nut wrenching nausea occurred, there would suddenly be no issue taken with AGW, and ZERO denial. Problem solved But therein is the problem; GW moves too slow to sense the squeeze. The consequence escapes... I've mused in the past that the biggest problem with AGW is that it doesn't have any biological advocacy. It doesn't appeal to the natural senses. Disadvantaged by abstraction. Humans, for all their achievements, still need the 'eeEEEyAAww!' factor or whatever the "warning" was doesn't truly penetrate and resonate inside their skulls. It's the root cause for all man's follies, that 'only then do the fuckers believe'. For some brilliant enlightened types, this is not true... but then again, intelligence ( fascinating coincidence ) seems to emerge in populations similarly to the "super fair" proportionality of economic distribution: 1% of the population seems to posses 90% of the right kind of intelligence. You know? like research and actually possessing mental acuity, tends not to deny what is objectively true is what, 7 out of a 103 people? What we've created of humanity since the Industrial Revolution (IR), is a "state of provision". It's a sociological problem really. We've been living through a 'techno-evolutionary experiment.' One that probably began when tools started scoring better grades then native biologies, in the greater "Darwinian test". Survival mechanics become necessarily less, if/where not obsolete. Maybe automation, and now with these LLMs, and chatGPTs, and seemingly boundless and unstoppable ASI supposedly within a decade - where's all that goin'? See ... nature does not protect skill? It sheds what isn't needed. There are no organs in human biology ( for example ) that are just there... Black holes anchor whole galaxies. So it works in life or non-life contexts. Everything serves a purpose in nature or nature vanquishes it. Including human capacity - learning and being able to predict calamity based on that learning ..etc, is being lost. And here's a delicious discovery, there is now scientific proof that the way one lives their life actually effects the DNA assemblage of their gametes. So our sperms are idiots, too! A dip shit sperm ain't turnin' into no Einstein, y'all. The state of provision we all our steeped in that numbs us from reeling over the testicle squeezes for our approach to reality, appears it may even stupefy life; it gets passed on to our kids. It's a slow moving zombie apocalypse to go along with the AGW one. There's another metaphor that I like. It has to do with stellar evolution. The brighter a star shines, the faster it approaches its demise. It may shine, out shine most the stars in it's stellar neighborhood, at the moment the core hits the iron fusion stage - it takes more energy to fuse iron further than the star is creating, so the mass/gravity balance with thermal pressure breaks down and the gravity wins. This triggers the sequencing through a super nova. As the super nova shock wave propagates toward the exterior the star, this can take 10 hours to breach the surface, at which point ... particle larger than photon gets expelled at relativistic outward speed, while the photons expand at the speed of light - a beacon has occurred the signifies the end. But for those 10 hours prior to the breach, the star's shine was magnificent ... utterly "unaware" that it was already dead. Is humanity in it's 10 hours? But going back to the reproductive aspect... it's like we are effecting our own devolution in a scary way; nature provides a means to preprogram. That's it, that's explanation for the Fermian Paradox. The way the Law of Lessening Returns shows up in the process of evolution: the crucible of evolution perfects a species to a state technology that ultimately removes the necessity for evolution in the first place - now that is a interesting catch-22. I guess in a holistic argument ( for lack of better word - ) the salvation is in the technology itself. Perhaps innovation will derive a means to store intelligence when it is not used - oh wait! what do we have that does that? Anyway ...muse aside, there's definitely a stench of entitlement in modernity. Perhaps not even knowing what the consequences are. People don't seem know when they are subjecting themselves to risk when they really should know better. When you see and start analyzing the accounting of these hurricane aftermaths, or flood or etc earthquake this and that, there's always a part of you that wonders what in the fuck were they doing there in the first place? In Texas... it's 4 am with water boarding rain rates on going in or around a camping area that is situated on on over-due alluvial planar .. hm. Pompeii was an attractive place to build a city. Pompeiians were sort of apathetic to the warnings, too?

https://www.instagram.com/p/DLUx33htNZZ/?igsh=MTl4ZGNqbHV4NGsxbw==

Considering what it’s doing to the polar Arctic region up there… I don’t think it’s a hell of a lot better

Yeah, anyway this is like standard summer heat today… It wasn’t out of control If that’s what people’s point is, I don’t have problem with that. So the reason why the heat index is the same here as it is and Atlanta Georgia or Florida Dallas or whatever, yet no advisory, is because of acclamation bias, which is a very real legitimate concern - has to be factored into pulling headline triggers. Ex, Virginia Beach gets a winter storm warning and a town shut down for four days over 3 inches of snow

Oh. Lol okay

Yes, you did You posted that excerpt placing that Connecticut shit in the center of the image of course you did Jesus you won’t quit with this goddamn gaslighting crap shut the fuck up

Agreed… But you know we’re also getting these strange heat things everywhere. I’ll just leave it at that.

You need to say this sentence to me otherwise we’re not having this conversation further: ‘I should not have used an isolated area of northern Connecticut to characterize a total situation that was in fact hotter.’ The fact that you tried to do that comes off as gaslighting… Maybe it was maybe it wasn’t. I hate it when people fiddle with facts. It’s like gerrymandering reality Maybe you’re just one of these people that thinks their backyard represents everywhere. I don’t know, but I didn’t think you were that dumb either Because you use something tactically to manipulate or attempt to manipulate somebody to thinking of a reality that wasn’t so

Could be instrumentation though? It seems like these national weather service temp instruments are prone to slipping their calibration or something.

Meh only one stroke LOL

Dude, I did not say you mentioned anything about the temperatures. Why are you playing this fucked up verbal game - you’re trying to evade the fact that you were wrong by making this some other argument This is what you said exactly and it was silly ”Kind of a wimpy heat advisory though. 96 hi? That's your average summer day in Florida. ” which I responded to, clearly, by context. I don’t really care, but I can’t stand when people try to gaslight - it’s a separate thing, not related to any kind of temperature debate, which there was none

You said “wimpy” and used a meso region that comparatively did not represent the situation fairly. I responded to a clear tactic to diminish the extent of the reality - why this taking place from you and Indeedsnow is odd and teetering on a cred denter. Aside from frankly coming off as a wee bit dishonest and ‘gaslighty’ … or perhaps just delusional social media bate you should probably drop it while the numbers are clear

It really is quite simple… Denial happens because it’s enabled That’s it. Nothing else… Now, if we want to get into what’s the enabling, that’s a fascinating effect of the human social condition functioning in a state of multigenerational abundance of choice and technological advantage These provide recourse, whereas the morality of survival and virtuosity of learning are both being dimmed by the state of resource provision making populations less proactive -frankly making the bulk density of humanity, dumber and dumber Amongst many other feedbacks, it’s definitely going to block people from seeing the damage that can be caused by an abstraction like an invisible slow moving apocalypse

there were 99s earlier for a couple of hours around metro west and typical town square regions that heat well... I mean what? you're giving me a 96 in 'portions of north CT ? what are we, cats with our heads jammed in paper bags thinking that's the whole world and we're safe in there - The heat indexes across the headlined area solidly verified based upon empirical data and HI formula ... Can we move on ?

Today has verified heat index outlook/advisory headline. This is empirically verified.

just for general ... there's a massive heat signal from ~ the 18th thru the end of the month. More impressively so say 21ish to 27-like. Huge -EPO whilst the PNA is negative is hemispheric climo footprint for Chicago to go body baggin' and with the NAO tending to be positive that's all academic after that. It's a helluva long way away, but I don't see us being BN before that either. hot month

it's already 68 here

That's typically how we get our biggest heat as a matter of climate fact... The model of AN in NE has 2 origins: 1 MS Valley/Gulf 2 S/W U.S. These have different large synoptic circulation modes and are easily identifiable. 1 is a WAR sourced. The West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades west and bulges the westerlies N of New England. This tends to collocate with a surface ridging which imparts a deep layer SW flow from east Texas and the Gulf region up and around the periphery of the high. This type of heat seldom exceeds the low 90s, but will transport high theta-e ( elevated DP) air. think 92/76 2 is Sonoran desert/elevation processed heat. This is led by a +PNA that collapses into a mode change -PNA. This ejects plume(s) of intense kinetically charged desert air, with exceedingly hot 850 mb type temperatures, EMLs and very tall mixing columns on the soundings. The -PNA sends heights higher over the eastern mid latitude continent, and the ejected plume(s) of high heat get timed into that ridge expansion and trapped. This kind of AN pattern is typically where we get our biggest T. DPs may start out diurnal cycles in the 70s, but will tend to mix down to the 60s. think 100/66 Sometimes... you can hybridize between these two ... For example, the retrograding WAR may be coupled with a --> -PNA.... but there is no certainty while that is happening that a plume will be timed. So it's important in climate awareness to understand the mechanistic differences in how the heat is transported across the continent. That EPS mean above is indicating the #2 method of heat transport is favored - assuming that gaudy look actually materializes that way.

Nailed it

Unless Rt 2 can roast it's way back to 86 or 87 this next round's liable to turn right and head down into CT and shade us with vils

Severe watch issued #2