Typhoon Tip

00z GFS set up is naughty at 120 hrs

18z GFS wave interferes everything for 384 hrs. Jesus

...it's funny how we all got our thing - i have an uncanny memory for patterns and indices ... but dates ? - luke warm if not cool on those -

word! I just got the 'little critter' in Feb on the wrong year but the other stuff was right - For some reason I always wanna put that damn thing in 04' ...not sure why - ..heh, it's not the first time he's had to correct me on that sucker. Oh I imagine 20 years from now it'll be 'No, that was Feb 03, the previous year'

I think Will may be right - I think we need to bump our recollect one year earlier - haha... my bad. OH, wait never mind - f me!

That winter went on to be a syrupy cold winter ..wow. It was a west based -NAO pulser - one of the last great NAO winters where NAO actually did mean storms and cold because it modulated the right way... Fickle index. But I remember -9 F on numerous mornings. That was the year ( early Feb ) that a "little Critter that bites" swathed 10" of "flurries" along the eastern end of the Pike, with 6" on either side out to 30 or so miles...out of nowhere sending NWS scrambling to now-cast a warning event -

Yup...I was living in Winchester then, which as you know is just 4 or 5 miles down Washington street from Woburn there... about 24" in our driveway... I don't think there was snow on the ground at xmass - but don't quote me...

You know what this reminds me of ? In 2003, early Dec we had a southerly gale that pushed nearly 70 Dps clear to Manchester NH...replete with sheeting rains going sideways under street lamps... and even stopped raining long enough to just be very windy and spooky warm...then, a ribbon echo squall ends around midnight... two days later, we had a windex snow event that made headlines for how 1.5" of snow burst in temps that crashed from 36F to 19F over and that many hours, ... flashed I-95 and gridded eastern Mass ... 3 days later, ...well - 20" over Metrowest... Not saying this transition is reduxing that - no...but, but it reminds me if we get these 60+ DPs and this evening thrashing ... then, say the deal on the weekend is a cold advection pivot point, then a few clicks later that coastal manages to set up - does at least spatially remind me of that . spatially - I mean...we aren't going to be 9 F prior to any coastal in 8 days hahaha... that'd be a neat trick

something like that affect... metaphorically speaking of course but yeah. We're either going full in our f'n around with how to weasel out lol

ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern'

One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn'

I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5)

Yup ... and, like we said last night ... probably have to go on and off with these peregrinations for a couple days, too - I mean don't be shocked if say ...12z tomorrow we're back to that separate weirdness again... The 00z, 06z. and 12z operational GFS runs all have definitively different ideas on how to handle the flow coming off the NE Pac over the PNA evolving arced flow up over the NW Terr. of Canada and really...everything that happens on the 7/8th of Dec is going to come down to that being handled right and uh...heh, we aren't really there yet. Some of that mechanics is plausibly even based upon enhancements as the sourcing is deep oceanic basin regional... That's another thing about this PNA ..the flow is rather flat for numbers as large as CPC ( GEFs -based)... It may be adding to model discontinuity -

lol, I was noticing that as far as the GFS operational run goes... the deeper layer/mid level vortex position over Lake Huron has been pegged there clicking back some 15 ( not kidding ) cycles... ( Trop. TB) literally... It's like, clone-clone-clone-clone-clone.... all the way back, offering zero hope. The GFS is probably not as bad as we think as a model huh

Didn't ask me but ... heh, probably combines two primary motivational factors - ( Conditionalized expectations + recent events ) / 2 = impatience and losing site of normalcy ... The left side of that addition is formulated or encouraged over the recent years since ...really 2000, where 50% + autumns have featured air mass supportive, or outright pulling off...early snow events. You know? It's like entitled now... It reminds me of Wright Weather and early Eastern BB... and the mid Atlantic entitlement after Jan 1996. Five years later ... when internet social media emerged, they popped on the scene clearly ( and "justly") jilted because they weren't getting the snows that NYC was - I can believe we are closing in on 15 years since that era - wow... man. Heh I guess it's a bit of abstract reference at this point - But it doesn't help that recently we 4-6" ed another Halloween ... it seems ever since then there's been this palpable undisclosed 'okay, let's do this' and every time the pattern doesn't... you get grousing to make up for the missing wind gusts... I guess that call that "guffing" lol...

the differences in the GFS' handling of the N/stream ... in terms of timing, placement and amplitude, comparing the 00z 06z and 12z operational cycles are elaborately coherent. It's not a situation where these cycles are showing nuanced changes that make determinism difficult - they literally don't look like the same play book entirely up over the NW Territories of NW Canadian shield. That part of this PNA amplification is proving quite a problem with rather large stochastic/continuity changes - to make matters even more obfuscating ... the differences show no clear trend progression - like, 00z big, 06z a little less... the 12z lesser still.. 00z big, 06z nill, 12 half way back. And the GGEM... ? I mean wtf - ... It has a defined system on both the 00z and 12z runs, but they are coming from entirely different large scale mechanism... 00z was a weak southern stream phase initiation and a complete N/stream subsume thing... but this run is pure southern stream vortex lazily wobbling up toward Albany ... I don't know... we may not parlay well through any of this? We might not - .. but, I'm still intrigued and willing to stick it out when the AO/NAO tandem is falling, and the PNA is rising to + 2 SD... Pattern change and indices mode flips typically are problems for guidance -

Scott ... I think - depending on one's tech ... - this weekend is more than mere 'voodoo' Tho I am not entirely certain what you mean by that? I think it means plausible but unlikely ?? Either way, I don't get to see the EPS -based index derivatives, so taken fwiw ... my assessment is purely GEFs oriented. That said, this weekend has some spotential for significant storminess ..100 or so hrs .. is already part of the same "correcting" circulation medium. Not talking a major event or anything though for that D4.5 range but ... it's like we are rolling with weighted dice more favorably from now through Dec 10 because imm blw - ...Yes to the latter. Whether that is another inland cordillera runner, or PD redux or an asteroid impact ... just sayn' an active pattern. This is actually hugely signaled really by the 2-week declination of the AO/NAO ...apparently moving in a coupled fashion, landing on the top of the total +2.5 SD PNA correction that frankly doesn't really immediately collapse out there at the end of week two but merely is concertedly slumping off ... That could emerge more positive in the member blend. The long of the short on all that is ... that a negatively differentiating polar index that is armed by the NAO as being a cold delivery source, with an H.A. signal ( at mid latitudes ...) with the PNA in tandem is, in my mind, more substantial than mere plausible already underway so ... mm...

Or the U.P. for that matter ... I mean there’s mall towns in between meth labs up there otherwise it’s just beaver dams and duck shit

I would suggest the Euro comes in > 50% in agreement with these two players ... 12z almost gave impression of suspended physical process while en route to this sort of frame up as it is and I’ve seen this in the past where a guidance more fully commits and sort of “finishes where it left off” on ensuing run

I saw it ... it seems the PNA evolution is playing havoc with N/stream wave spacing and timing and the op. versions are cyclically relaying/emphasizing between regions of amplitude ... this is an “on” run

I posted about this earlier… The northern stream has not been handled very inconsistently ...earlier in the day the runs almost completely abandon any northern stream involvement at all and here some of these 0Z runs bring it back big time cut in and still day 6+ ..,so you know this could be an on off deal for the next couple days

Probably worth watching that 4.5D foreground curling neutral under LI for shits and giggles ... it’s been consistent in recent cycles and swipes evolving albeit quick hitter CCB head of chilly rains SE heading into blue bomb climo .., wouldn’t take a whole helluva lot to parachute

Actually ends up bombigen’ed pretty good near Portland Maine but “Bun”lieve it or not that could’ve taken place sooner… It tried to escape a bit of the vestigial southern stream and attendant early convective out to sea ...slows the inevitable from happening - it probably in reality would take place sooner that’s a deep humdinger there but ooph

It’s having trouble with the phasing kinematics but ironing some of those out and probably coalesces into a pretty significant deal

Looks like the GFS arriving steeper in the northern stream