Typhoon Tip

I'm thinking part of the issue with that 'swirling' non-committed center ... it's very spring-like - Sometimes the mid and extended early April chart will have a deep mid level gyre that looks quite menacing, but has a comparatively weak surface reflection rattling around underneath. Basically in both scenarios such as that ...and probably this? - there's no cold air at low levels to force the frontal structures. It's complex fluid/thermodynamic stuff ... but sharper fronts do things like make upward vertical motion be more "up" ...and not diffusely spread out over broader, shallower frontal surface areas, where by the restoring up under the lifting air regions are also thus spread out - that 'spread out' opens up the low ... with that sort of busted ravioli mess -

un-related note... ... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please - every f'n June with this gig ya know - ugh

yeah... i posted about it over in the Novie thread ... fwi not w ... not a very believable solution due to continuity break -

Changes on the 00Z guidance ..

ha ha... no kidding. wow - we stated our case/logic yesterday ...summarily, the ensuing run cycles actually supported those hypothesis rather nicely ... But then what happens at 12z ? - It's like your family member or friend is in the 12th step of rehab and not hearing from them so you go to their house to find them passed out on the floor in a bender - right back there. i don't know what to make of that... it really doesn't fit that well with the persistence, but ... you know - anomalies relative to anomalies, that's usually where the devil lurks in this business. it's like a Russian nesting doll of anomaly ... The progressive anomaly doll cracks open and out pops an backward anomaly hiccup, just long enough for that thing to happen... then, jumps back inside the other doll after everyone's fun's been ruined lol i dunno ... fwiw, all players are over the Pacific. The intermediate/polar stream wave mechanics won't even relay over land until 4 days from 12z this morning... the vestigial southern stream low doesn't come in until tomorrow.... Meanwhile, the whole ordeal from D6 -10 is during a mode change of the PNA...? There's enough objective uncertainty there not to be sold on this solution -

maybe we oughta call these "rhino" patterns ... when the Nina is like the ass-end of a dead rhino .. .it looks like a Nino

Don't get me started ... lol - ...

K, manual relo of this post - lol: "..At that range (360) ? (EPS mean) mm I'd say that's pretty amped frankly - usually by then entropy has taken over and we end up in the annular look, such that even smaller 'formulaic' structures should be of interest if they are capable of cutting through the morass of a spaghetti layout and still have that signal - In any case, I bet there are a handful of members that are pretty tall in the west... even if there are those that are flatter, too Edit, sure if this is Dec in nature move it -

heh... you know guys - we may never get a idealized pattern construct out of the next 45 days anyway - we may have to deal with working out chicken salad out of chicken shit - but I'd take the EPS look and run with it if I were a winter enthusiast faced with the previous - That looks like home grown marginal cold sufficiency to me to be honest - or within range...and those waves could easily morph into a repeat storm scenario... Have to remember, these correction periods are always a problem in the guidance ...at the thresholds of mode changes. you know this ...for the general consumer -

Best wishes and hopes for marine interests ... Fwiw, this cycle of the oper. Euro taking steps toward expected correction... Still ends up odd-ball looking at the end of the run, but it's sequencing through a more progressive N/stream now, and I suspect that full stalled Lakes look is in trouble... We're likely to see an r-wave signal pass through the east with this +PNA ...but that's different than the previous Euro/GGEM attempting to conserve it into a singular gyre like previous runs. Not that anyone's paying attention - lol... just sayn'

so what are we dancing around the notion of here... what's the elephant in the room, 'cancel thanksgiving' ? like, any house with more than a couple cars parked out in front gets a run on by the local pd like a noise complaint at a frat party - ... just getting ready to cut the bird and its, 'bang bang bang' at the door?? heh. anyway - I heard there's three ( now ) sources for a vaccines, including Pfifer .. I don't know what these other two are or if this statement's even true so don't quote or assume or start a fake news meme or nothin' just askin' - is it true. The way this was said, the other two are not as logistically difficult/fragile with their version - and together... all three estimate 26, 000,000 doses available to the upper 1% of the global population by Jan 1 2021 ... j/k...but it was espoused that they'll have that many doses -

The following doesn't mean anything .. nor is intended to imply anything substantive, but I think it is interestingly ironic - just the symbolic nature of what's gone on in society over the last 3 or 4 years. What happened ... ~ 18 months prior to the outbreak of SAR CoV 2 ( C-19) ? It was the "Okay, Boomer ..", meme. I think it was some Congressional hearing ( with less certainty ), where some Millennial-gen demoed a bit of ... insolence ( though that may be too strong a word for it ) to some elderly statements. It was over the Climate and environmental crisis... Anyway ..it resonated through society like an aria star at a fine stemwares gallery ...shattering the supremacy of that elder generation's illusion that they were still holding onto control of the great puppeteer's strings for this marionette show we call culture. Comedic circuits .... media in all forms, had sooo much fun with that... So next on the historical destiny comes along this pathogen that attacks the old disproportionately harshly in case loading and morbidity. Now, ...that may seem refutable now by raw numbers ... But, problem with statistics is that without 'qualitative' analysis, the 'quantitative' means less. For example, there are more people alive in their 30s and 40s and 50s than there are in their 60s and 70s and 80s... purely by total factorization of human life span/risks and normal mortality rates. So, you now have more 42 year olds with C-19 than 72 year olds...but, there are less 72 year olds to get it ( this is just making up an example to make the point). We don't hear this kind of critical statistical, interpretative discussion - we just get bathed by CNN and Fox New's manipulating electromagnetic dark energy like Senator Palpatine's blue lightning... But, somewhere in there ... prooobably still proves that older folk, i.e.... the "Boomers," are still at greater risk? The irony is... all of society is now crippled if not stymied to some extent, to promote and extend the Boomer life and supremacy - ... like I said, this is symbolic ... they get their revenge! By the way, that climate shit still that looms over all humanity and countless other species - the latter of which is already suffering the initial onset/throws of a Mass Extinction ( Biologically/empirically demonstrated .. eh hm...). You know ... we take on 'crisis' ' one monster at a time - -nothing wrong with that. And as climate change has no "directly" palpable or corporeal observable appeal to humanity at the day-to-day ... week-to-week ... but only vaguely so even at year-to-year scales, it is quite concomitantly not really registered as one such monster... But it is - Sad truth of the matter is...all this with the Pandemic...and everything else in reality for that matter ? Meaningless, because the specter of the Carbon footprint issue is interestingly the biggest monster of them all, while being totally ironically invisible. So add that... Maybe this is just the Age Of Ironies.

Holy Tony Robbins with journey through self-empowerment and positive thinking .. - y'allz killin' his bottom line while his conference halls vacate and opt in here instead for free expose' lol

The Industrial Revolution

this ought poke some hornet nests... How 'bout Deutsche Bank's proposed 5% "work from home" tax to be levied against those who ...wait for it - work from home Ha ha... It's great ... Pandemic forces this state of affairs, then ... those that who have no choice but to work from home, get economically pinged for it - it's soft persecution to single out that group for one. It's another example of how the human contrivance of 'money' ... is intrinsically disconnected from the same nature that evolved humanity. It's always fascinated me how it seems we, as a species, seem to lose sight of that. As though it's indispensable, we can couch its illusion of value in with, E=MC2, PV=NRT, and DNA = DeoxyriboNucleic Acid ... etc Point being, when the illusion gets in the way of the real processes of nature, to wit the pandemic is one such real process... trying to use that same illusion to fight back is going to cause iniquity .. there's no way around it. The simple solution is, don't do that - ...Here's some fake yet plausible news for you... NO, Douche-Bank doesn't give a ratz ass about recouping a 5% work from home tax, so that those who have been displaced from employment can breathe relief - hell no! Their f'n cloaking their incentives in good deeds ... They're trying to take wealth from working folks, give it to non-working folk, so the non-working folk can resume payment on defaulting mortgage ..and school ..car or whatever loans Douche' ultimately owns the account #s for, that's all.

Whatever happened to the 'virulency is losing its potency' claims ? I guess like all 'information' in this present era of wanton liars an paralyzing immorality, it was proven unsubstantiated?? Or maybe it/is was true, but just not the case everywhere. My guess? We won't know ...because it erodes on the profit of the commercialization of this issue to inform the masses of that. Meanwhile there's still a sociological aspect to this ... namely, people are 'getting used to this' as a background sort of canvas. Reaction to reality now is starting to raise eyebrows - that happens. Fear tends to erode in collective thinking given time and exposure in any crisis scenario; that statement doesn't require a theoretical, post-doctoral data-based inclusion to be true. We all know this... that's why we are no longer scared ( at least most of us...) by that dark closet at the other side of night as adults... blah blah... So familiarization breeds contempt.... That's true in a lot of ways ... and another phenomenon that emerges from that same circuitry at the individual level, which then integrates and becomes of the whole, is that familiarization emboldens folk and they'll lower precaution. We can 'sense' it taking place around us, now. There's something happening ..out there in society that I predicted would - and not taking credit; most sentient adults did, too. Word of mouth is factorable. People are hearing stories of others that have tested positive, and did not assimilate symptoms. Or, their anecdotal passage through the illness was minor... Pro athletes are showcasing this. Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics), or Cam Newton ( NE Patriots) but performed at a professional levels after having recovered... etc... There are exceptions - but they are "exceptions" which by definition and convention means they do not represent the bell-curve of experiences. But for those, some did/do go on to manifest some sort of longer termed heart and or lung and or ...I dunno, Covid-Toe aspects, but those are eventually resolvable (from what I've read) via therapies, save for rarities. But, even with Influenza-A and B ... you get these too! See, the Industrial Media Complex's "social engineering" is to keep pulse rates elevated ...for click and swipe for profit economics. It is just another act in shameful-unethical informatica if endemic to present era - just imho. We keep hearing about the atrocities of C-19 in a vacuum ...like on an island with no conceptual-dimensional boundaries that can be used to put things in perspective, on f'ing purpose! 'Nother prediction, ...that word of mouth is eventually going to be insurmountable against the Fox and CNN monsters in the dark closet at the other side of the room, and they'll ceasing being able to trigger the histrionics that keep their profits up...and we'll see the 'real' reality of C-19s 'affliction' at that time. It's probably just another historic thing that we develop a vaccine for... that degrades a "crisis" into "crisis management" ...which ultimately becomes "on-going seasonal public health concern" ...just like Influenze A-B ... And all the while...we'll be consuming headlines about how, " ...Life as we know it will never be 'normal' again..." .... BULLSHIT. The genomic root of Infl A and B is in fact the Spanish Flu... and if history ever should repeat ( THAT never happens in Humanity, huh - ), soon as folks mash up 'word of mouth' familiarization with a sense of technological buffer/protection... good luck imposing personal liberties Fox and CNN.

Derailed thread alert ... but ..what is your diet and age ? Not to be too personal, but I have personal experience with that condition and have studied/learned ...and modulated my lifestyle around avoiding it, successfully.. ..and pretty much have eliminated it altogether. I may sometimes get something suspicious..but it never lasts longer than a day ...day and half, and is nothing compared to when it hit and I'd be hobbled for 4 or 5 days, and is forgettable. I can tell you ... no smoking no alcohol 50% of daily caloric intake has to be from vegetable/organic sourcing therein... Red meat once per week, lean and organic - and start liking salmon/fish ... I ride 25 mile rides, or run 6 mile runs....every day. ..in fact, those on this board that no me as an ass-end of a dead rhino to look at probably would be a-taken back by how thin I am these days. My total cholesterol is way down ... and I haven't had any gout worthy of even mentioning in 3 years now, when prior to making these lifestyle changes...I was once every two or three weeks dealing with something... elbow, knee or foot... even thumb joints. Also, if you engage in an excessive work out regimen from a sedentary initial position, the sudden drop in weight can also trigger a gout response. You have to start easing off the bad calories first for a couple of weeks... No soda ...ad that to the list above big time! In fact, avoid high-fructose corn syrup like the plague ma-man. ... anyway, drop 10 then ease into work outs... The sudden weigh loss is your body liberating huge quantities of uric acid and other bio-toxins into your blood, and often...faster than renal function can adapt - uric numbers go up... boom - exercise induced arthritic attack. Once you lose...20 or 30 lbs and your body more fully adapts to working out regularly...you can even throw in a beer here and there, or a pizza ... live a little...and you'll be fine. But, that is sub-moderation and treats. Just sayn'

Whenever I read these sort of articles ... or even sooner, merely see topical at this point ... I cannot help but leap to the conclusion .. it's all academic really - the truth is... en masse humanity took the easy greedy road. yup - whether it was easier generations ago when the Industrial Revolution took place, or, immoral, ...it was some variation between either end that got us to this predicament of: ~ 1/2 of population aware of the doom, in a struggle against ... ~ 1/2 not aware/disrespectful of the science, continuing to be assholes, and thus accelerating said doom ~ some small remainder not in the ratio unguilty by disconnection from technological affairs and/or doing anything at all - but not enough - to stop it. Thermodynamics were never even scratched for what can be technologically evolved to manipulate those Natural laws of the Universe ...to benefit all, while not harm the ability for all to exist. Everything anyone has said after that fact is a deviation from that truth. If a booming force came down from the heavens and voiced that from this point forward, any other attempt to manipulate energy in or from the environment, other than what benefits both the individual and World, COMEBIND, will results in immediate loss of one testacle per self-concentric act - you'd be amazed how fast Humanity would halt all actions until such time as we remove greed and money and self satisfaction from any debate. Fact of the matter is, the slow moving 'invisible' specter of the the doom wave is enabling the denial of truth. Nothing else ... period. But, sometimes my realism gets a bit extreme - lol. It's true though ... It's possible to turn the lights on over humanity with 0 pollution - yes it is... It is not mathematically impossible to simplify the equation of existence to where success in doing so does/acts/achieves a 'symbiosis' with one's environment. We don't. ... we don't. Anything else, is a perversion based on immorality at one end, and short-sightedness do to traditionalism at the other... All of it - end of discussion. Even the seemingly virtuous act of saying, 'can we at last engage in a discussion' - is belaying and evasive. Because there is nothing else to discuss. This is incontrovertible - Sometimes there really is a right, and there is a wrong. There is no gray area in consuming .. torpedoing one's ability to survive - that's it. But Humanity's long storied, tragic history, proves that it takes death in throngs to get people to get along - ...this will be no different.

Mm hm ... "Dontclickhere.com"

Appreciated Kev' ah, yeah it's in that post dude "Dominion" ( https://www.amazon.com/s?k=dominion+john+l+ford&ref=nb_sb_noss ) ...actually No expectations though ... basically, the story centers around a genius who lost his soulmate tragically ...as on the brink of wasting away, when he's struck by an idea one day in a lecture series... It starts slow and techy - heh...what does one expect from me... right - but, 2nd half of the novel it gets more people/spiritual and softer in that respect. "Colton" is the main character and he befriends "Jack" ..who becomes his kind of like 'right-hand-man' ...and together, they bring Colton's idea over the top - but... the emergence of the technology becomes waaaay more than they bargain for. Artificial Intelligence is taking the reader into a deeper implication of the emergence of the soul - and when they turn it on... strange things began to happen... But, the real antagonism kicks in when "Dr Mendal," Colton's academic advisory... reads ... and per/for course approves Colton's new thesis idea - with more in mind. It deals with A.I., drone tech, and spiritualism, ...and also, synergizes Solid State physics with Biology for experimental aspects of the mind - ..so ..if one is interested ... it's 300 pages in hard print... so standard read.

Yeah ...ah, heh... You know, 'new authors' don't tend to sell a lot. I think I sold 200 copies maybe? I'm due for some form or royalty in a month - first. Probably be 10 bucks hahaha. Frankly? I was not out to 'make money' - at all really... I wasn't. I just ... not to sound like a douche but people started telling me to write books in my 20s. ...then my 30s came and went and still, people would tell me 'nicely written' this and that... Meanwhile, I have no life and death is inviting - I decided...I didn't want to arrive at 70 years of age and wish I had done or tried to be something more than ignored. So, goal achieved - whether fleeting is the whisper in the wind, there is a trace of me left in the Zeitgeist I suppose ...Funny tho, it doesn't change the other stuff for having done so ...we all got our demons I suppose. Oh, it's on Amazon, "Dominion" is the name - which I don't like that title. But seeing as the publisher is on the contract, they get a say. - Turns out, there's a f'n "Dominion" title in every genre and subgenre already... I'm like, really - you dikks Further reading/observation about the book industry: In 1950 it was a bigger ordeal to cobble together a novel... All the moving parts, between editing and re-editing and reviewal... it was all done in solid state realm of machining/press. There was no Internet ( duh ) transmitting manuscripts, and no word processing. It was all typewriters, and red pens... and then USPS was more like 10 days to a month and there was no express anything... That was the 'express' That's how it was done... And, usually required sleeve-rolled, red-eyed coffee drinking Pall Mall smokers assigned chapter blocks in teamwork by recent journalist grads making shit wages doing grunt editorial tedium for maybe 10 "Dikcensian" publishing workhouses. While some chief editor did a final read thru after 36 months or something ... And, the tech in actually printing/binding books..? I mean, they didn't have Kindle ... the whole thing of it was a different industry then, and I have found that there is a kind of culture hangover, ...where people seem to carry a perception that it is some ginormous hurdle to 'get noticed' and achieve publication - ... Don't get me wrong... My publisher did tell me there's still something to it and they turn down a lot of manuscripts - yes... However, with such proficiency at both ends, it's easier for the industry to 'take a chance' ...

Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met - lol... Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees. And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ... Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast. I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine... But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods and there's like any drain available at all... It just sucks when we get that going in early April -

Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ... the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan

yeah ..that's got to be it, the one I'm thinking off. I was up at UML at the time and remember it took up a whole class session in discussion in FAST when we got around to it after the intersession.. . because it was like a 7 or 8,000 foot tall column b-52 carpet bombing sleet chunks while that S ( it was only moderate steady snow where we were in central-N Middls) .. .But these were big sleet pellets... punching holes in the new snow pack weird.. And it was knuckle stinging cold in that event... I think it was 22C on the station monitor with moderate sleet and S- at the time I looked.

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far .. It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter. NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears. fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw! It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished. You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior. since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior