Typhoon Tip

oh wait ... haha... forgot about that whole remnant thing -

We may have a sneaky 89.7 degree heat wave underway for northern Orh, Middls, and S NH typicals ... It's a long shot, but I'm noticing the Euro and NAM have backed off the what feeble CAA there is behind that front tomorrow night and may Sunday may trend toward the upper 80s. We've already popped 90 today, and probably will tomorrow... Hell, there's nothing else to follow - Also, the Euro's got a low grade heat wave out there in the late middle/ext range - it's had this for a couple of cycles now, with hints prior to that; so it's trending. The GFS has heights that would support, but engineers curvatures that prevent -weird. It carries full-bird troughing through 585 DM heights ... We've had temps near 100 at 582 in the past... I swear ...NOAA must've parameterized that model to hide hot periods...

Could be a warm mank? It won't be misting per se, no .. .But, that look is 82/72 type stuff there in the Euro and has been for many runs. Thing is, the air mass is suppressed S but not evacuated off the continent...by last evenings front... Over the next day or two that boundary washes out and the SW flow resumes, transporting the air mass back in but, this time it lacks the SW EML stuff... So it's kind of a DP sack sticker soup on the back side of this/return flow.

I'm a little leery of that interpretation actually ... not that you asked - heh. Buuut, the Euro shows (as has GFS operation on some solutions..) plumes of periodic SW expulsion embedded in a kind of heat conveyor that keep getting sent down stream during that entire D4.5 through D10 range. Some runs that is more evident than others, and not certain which day ...which doesn't lend much to confidence no. However, 'the trough' return sentiment ...yeeeah, it's not the same beast as before really. There are structural differences overall that have me wondering if we aren't a single run away from getting said continental stream of plasma ejecta to waft up this way. We don't need "ridging" per se to get that to happen - Sunday shows that, and I don't see any reason why the upcoming pattern can't repeat. Might actually be a normal to above normal oscillatory thing. anyway, the trough is flat. We seem to have lost the meridional characterization of the flow in lieu of a more longitudinal look so I'm a little leery of being too optimistic about the heat being gone.

Did anyone notice that GFS tried to put a 600 dm ridge node in the mid riff of the country, with 850 mb temps approaching the mid 20s C as far N as the U.P. of Michigan ? Probably not ...because rightfully so, we should not be looking at a 384 hour anything that comes from modeling technology with much credulity ... still, I get a stinkin' suspicion this summer may bring the GW goods home to roost at some point - heh....er should we say 'roast'

Euro the opposite of that impression... Subtle but important distinction on this last Euro run is the tendency to pancake the latitude depth/extent of the deep layer trough set to replace the present ridge toward next weekend. That's mid levels... The surface read of the synoptic evolution rolls the region from the upper OV up through NE right back into a SW flow and even imparts +16 C 850 mb air. What's actually going on is that the mid week high pressure that intrudes from the N and truncates the heat merely pinches off the continental heat transport scenario presently in operation. Once the high normalizes out ... said air transport resumes. But by then, it contains some seriously rich DP air that tsunamis toward the weekend. I've seen this before in summers... For those that covet these interruptions of heat, NE is your destiny! It's basically that situation that sometimes sets up where the lower troposphere gets into "out of phase" with the mid levels... The mid looks sort of like the native perennial PNAP look, with flat western ridge, eastern trough coupled state, but, the lower troposphere may as well still be in a Bermuda round-house pattern.. We'll see how the runs modulate things going forward... I haven't seen the 00z GFS personally -

Scott or Will may have a better informed idea re those specifics than I. But I seem to recall a couple spring >> summers in the 2001 thru 2004 years that had some early heat. I recall April of ...I wanna say 2002, we had a freak warm month that year. Even when sea breezes came in they were ineffectual at really knocking things back the usual 35 F, and those air mass remained shallow, often erased overnight as a repeating characteristic of events. That summer did go on to being pretty warm - 4th of July was a scorcher. I get why you're asking but ... I'm not sure that's a useful conclusion to draw (assuming you are thinking repeating circumstances). If I'm being presumptuous than apologies but it could be exactly the same between April and June of 2002, as it just was now in 2017, and the summer would have equal probability in any direction. And just by experience I've seen that go either direction. I've seen early heat in May flip back to cold Junes that only mustered a recovery to normal in July... then a late heat wave at the tail end of August ...just before a mild Autumn that won't freeze... In other years, reverse all that. I think of Summers as being the "unmanned fire hose" season, where the teleconnectors have left it to spizzle and flop around. The planetary wave numbers become increasingly abundant but more importantly ... transient and weakly bounded. The flow becomes nebular. That is part and parcel in why some of these indexes lose their commodity between roughly mid May and the end of September.. It doesn't make the teleconnectors useless (imho) but, it makes their day-to-day dependability rarefied. It's probably really a matter of opening up thresholds though. If a PNA moves say, +1 or -1 SD in July, it doesn't mean nearly as much as if/when it moves that much in January... But move the former...I dunno 3 or 4 SDs in July, then we probably get something back from that particular index in terms of signaling pattern forcing. The trouble is, it almost never moves that much in July. Same holds true for the NAO ...EPO...etc, etc.. But I'm digressing... Point is, the 'unmanned fire hose' season means that we spray anomaly distributions all over the place with less obvious controls as to where/why they are coming from. So logically, it would "seem" harder to depend upon a warm say April, and think that means much for June. The earliest (per my experience) that the season to season "season" begins is roughly October... It seems that biases in October can sometimes weakly correlate in two month increments... Nov --> Jan...etc... but don't quote me.

20 or 21 C 850s on this 0 Z NAM over much of central eastern mass Sunday afternoon

Fascinating statistical result... Not to roll eyes but ... heh, environmental modeling that is/was/are designed to predict the effects of global warming have been hammering for years that it's not just about the "warming", but in large part is about chaos and havoc ... basically a lack of stability in the system. Freak extremes actually in both direction is/was/are part of the characterizations. Maybe this is all just excessive variability related to that. interesting... Either way, two heat waves in a spring predominated by a cool wet complexion is an interesting story

Yeah so as this is coming into better focus in the various runs it's becoming clear that this warm up in coming will probably limit to middling heat - One aspect I'm seeing that I don't like for bigger heat between detroit and boston's latitudes is that the geostrophically balanced mid-lvl winds just over top the ridge across southern and southeast Canada are too strong. Heat domes are fragile at our latitude ...you can't really run that kind of dynamics through there or invariably we'll be sending god knows what wedging S...be it BD's or outflow boundary or whatever the models can think of and the atmosphere will deliver to dent it back. That's not to say we won't pop the mid 90s on one of those days but this doesn't look like the same beast of a heat departure it did earlier on...

Euro was pretty hot from Saturday to the end of the run... (most know this .. just a morning diversion here -) The torridity will come down to how much DP is in that mess... If it's 90/60 ...not so bad but pedestrian AC requirements ...then needs go up from there. With all the rain we've had and at a surplus, this is very unlike last year at this time. There's a lot to give back to the atmosphere, at least locally, for if/when we pass 90+ air mass potential heating over top. Some of that is obviously also transport dependent, but in situ soil moisture is shown to effect heating potential pretty readily so if the wind is light-ish and it is 19 C at 850 mb with June insolation bakin' the hell out of things, we could see some added theta-e to the column there... It would hold the temp down a couple but give back in DP ...etc.etc. The GFS is flattening the ridge just enough, and throwing also just enough little indiosyncratic perturbations in the flow to nix this ridge/heat dome and heat wave down. In fact, the PARA MOS numbers fail a 'wave out of it all together. I've noted my self in the past that the GFS hates ridge domes and I wonder with this thing - Probably what happens is midway between the Euro and GFS which ... 92 to 95 might max this on either Sun Mon or Tues... Still in contention whether it breaks by BD or standard fropa on Wednesday ... But the Euro suggests the entire domain from coast to coast remains near or above normal in both heights and thickness so it probably still remains on close side.

The last of the cloud shield has finally peeled away ... and the winds are advecting in the warmth from eastern Ontario whatever

Euro actually started flagging the hot Sunday yesterday ... sort of bumped up the 'heat wave' by a day. Brian's right about the entry day often muted by global models; they do that often and that Sunday smacks of GFS fantasy limitations of BL expansion and local study and so forth, all of which look maximized sooner than Monday. How about the monster front on Tuesday now... ? Compare that to the 00z Euro - one of these models has no clue.

Looks like one of two things will happen with that 'heat wave' early next week... 1 ... it will end up just being 3 to 5 days of 87 to 91 with gradually building DPs... 2 ... sometimes the models will see a big ridge (trough) and elaborate potentials therein in their extended range... Then, summarily seemingly engineer any way physically plausible to mute/damp out their own signal, only to bring it back in nearer terms to something ...perhaps 80 to 90th percentile of the original vision. What that would mean for this is that it will look sort of 87 to 91'ish for the next few cycles ..then, come Friday's runs or so the ridge comes back to more of an unimpeded continental dragon tongue as opposed to weird vorticity shrapnel and a non-chartable off-set 850 mb plumes of relatively cooler air embedded in the continental baroctropic hot air mass... Those idiosyncrasies cut high temp potential pretty significantly at the 40th latitude.. Thing is, they can be real.. A lot of those "dents" in the heat are more likely to exists in a less anomalous height version of the ridge because ... slightly less suppression ...blah blah Which, the 00z Euro was kind of did try to make the air mass more homogeneous that anyway... It 86'ed its phantom [looking] BD for Monday that it decided to insert in that 12z run from yesterday.... Now placing any boundary roughly PWM to BTV type of axis... If the ridge comes back over the late week guidance, more in line to the original looks than even that would be too far S with any perceived boundary. Anyway ... details aside ...finally we are escaping the giant synoptic scaled 'tuck' pattern that keeps depositing cold plumes into Se Ontario... AT this point it's warmer up in Dead Horse than it is in NE for f sake ...

NO - what is meant is ... whether one is right or wrong is irrelevant in the act of Internet squabbling, it is futile to attempt to penetrate the opposing mind. Don't engage, period.

you can't 'win' this discussion

18z GFS fails a heat wave out of the whole ridge duration evolution... Has the 12z Euros "seemingly" phantom BD so aggressive that it might actually be chilly at NE Mass coastal beaches on Monday. It's almost laughable ...because that's probably the best heat dome/Sonoran air layer synoptic expression we've seen in years, and both the Euro and GFS just have to go out and find any reason at all to f all up.. Honestly, like I was opining yesterday or the day before or whenever, ...there isn't really anything about the mass-field modalities through that period that screams anything special for heat anyway. I don't really have a problem with it normalizing into something less than 'big heat'. But it really almost looks like these specific g-model solution are a bit zealous with little features there. If mutes, it hard to seeing a BD being the reason ... seems they are formulating from almost no confluence at mid levels, while ridge heights are bulging like a tsunamis.

Heh, looks like one of their correction schemes swooping in to save to the day ... I don't see any reason why the 12z has to be more right than the 00z...not at this time anyway. The idea of BD on Monday is brand new and not supported by other guidance and previous runs, and we're still talking about D6 there... I'd say the chances for the BD there is about on par with our back-ground probability over this particular geography at any given time for a day 6 ...not much more. Having said all that .. I also think it is possible that the entire period from Sun thru mid week is more like 88 to 92 type stuff anyway, and that the models could just be/have been over-doing it on the ridge evolution. An eased-off heat dome but still a hot pattern is just as likely too -

Interesting week ... Firstly, it's amazing how proficiently the NAM 32 km (which I think is the standard model?) clears out the region tomorrow. It has it's FRH sigma RH levels, in total with DVM, all implying a zippo clouds in the sky between 2 and 5pm. It seems hard to believe when watching the present satellite loops... But if that happens, this time of year, temperatures should soar into the low 70s in that look. Without any meaningful back-side/system entangled cold air, usually when you clear after cloud and rain there's a latent heat hang-over that helps provide for a rather quick temp response when the sun pops out. The NAMs characteristics of the day really looks that way. Oh MOS will say 67 but if the sun manages to cleave through with meaningful splashes by 10 or 11 am, I'd argue for a warm bust. The last three cycles have been steadfast on this impression... (actually, jokes on me - KASH NAM MOS is 74!) Then, looks like we may have to deal with a weird nor'easter either narrowly missing E or coming on up over the region on Friday. However, unlike the painfully slow gyre moving S-SE through NYS that we pretty much have to just wait out for it to spin down ..fill and minor out to get out of this bag-o crap, that one Friday moves right along and would probably be about a 9 hour thing tops. It appears to be motivated to do so because the erstwhile many-day advertisement for eastern ridging is destiny at this point. That thing dictates... that baby's coming. Once those height are instructed by planetary wave-spacing roll-back (or progression) to rises, anything partying and festering in the flow has to leave the premises ... immediately. If using the 00z Euro operational synoptics alone combined with some imagination... it looks like the heat wave gets bumped up a day. Saturday is a giant jolt the other direction after Friday's nor'easter (assuming that transpires). I mean, you're talking 55 to 60 F wind swept heavy rain and mist --> 82 F with 70% sun by 4pm Saturday. If the nor'easter misses E that transformation is less of course.. Sunday then has a well established west deep layer wind through 15 or 16 C at 850 mb under June sun and low RH... Sorry, that will over-achieve to 90 or 91 in that look. Monday is a slam dunk BIG HEAT day... (high launch pad) + (850 super-charged with Sonoran release/orgin air) + (nearly full sun) = 98 to 101 for me. ...'course, I don't know if there is DP to trade places with actual vs HI numbers ...but either way, the model's look for that day is a brown-out miserable hot hell. Crack the urban fire-hydrants, spikes in incidences of domestic violence, ... check the elderly stuff. Monday night could be one of those nights that Logan's low is 83 F and not until 5:30 am, either,.. .But then, interestingly, the 850 mb level's hottest pearl of heat bloobs off into the Atlantic such that Tuesday may only have 17 to 18 C (which is nothing to shake a stick at..) to work with... However, given the high launch again and no other means to limit the heating potential on that day (again, speaking relative to this model and this run), it may still make 93 or 94 by 10 am... From my experience, it is the third day or latter half of this sort of heat wave that introduces the DPs so... that could be the trade-off HI day. Then...finally, BD.... What's early June in a late middle to extended range heat wave if said heat wave isn't ending with a BD. But by then... I think most would be open to the idea of some natural AC

Para GFS MOS has the high Monday at 16 F over climo at D7 ! ... that's getting close to the isotope limit for that product's ability to buck climo at that sort of time lead - very difficult to stress that product much more than that... I did once see it 22 on a D4 which is right up there. But 16 at 7, when that product is almost entirely guided by climo is a telling signal. Bottom line, I don't think any 2-m products are going to pick up on that - not that you ask of course heh. But, that's pretty much a solid three days into Tues and Wed, too. Seven days ...still a lot of time to muck that up, so for heat enthusiasts ...it's really no different than how the other side should use a D7 Euro prog -

The low misses to the SE in the 06z 32 KM NAM evolution ... but, what we are seeing there is a very long fetch ..almost looks like a detached CCB, that is deep in layer and impinging upon the land-based Ekman inhibition then forced to lift. The incredible saturable amount of atmosphere in the flow channel is thus over-producing over climatology in that solution. Totally plausible actually... Sensibly? No one waiting for the T on Comm Ave or suffering a canceled little league game will no the difference, so Nor'easter is as Nor'easter does... But, in the strictest sense this is mainly an Atlantic pig pile job into eastern New England, with some lap-over into eastern NY/PA/N NJ (love to see that set up in 29 F isothermal sounding muah hahahaha). Actually, enough of the other guidance types have enough semblance of something similar to throw hands and figure for hell on Earth, either way. If there was any doubt about the timely conclusion of the overly stated "drought" that spanned the last 12 months of unnecessary posting ... this should put some stank and style on alleviating that doubt... ------- Beyond... for the general reader: as we discussed either yesterday or the day before ..etc., the extent and magnitude of this warmer pattern thereafter is in question and always has been (most are aware that know how to read...) But, that does offer some envelope of possibilities ranging from a normal to much above unfortunately. The teleconnectors are seasonally faded at this point (though the NAO does have some lingering usefulness in summers..). Personally, I believe that the PNA can in fact re-enter consideration in summer provided the index crosses over a kind of "coherence threshhold" ...which is to say both in numbers and appeal the EOFs are picking up on something unusually strong in the physics of the circulation. Now does not exactly ring as one of those times... However, it is notable that the operational guidance' are all on board for at least ending the Atlantic cold tuck assault pattern that's been more than less in place since mid April... (yes, that includes the faux heat wave that snuck in between r-wave rollback from last month, too). Seeing both the CDC, CPC and what I can glean from the EPS losing the previous numbers in lieu of a new relaxed index spread is more likely than not, related... and probably does at least signal a different paradigm that is in the least defacto warmer. We'll see how warm it gets. I would caution however that between hour ~ 60 and about 100 or so ... GGEM, Euro and GFS all indicate a Sonoran release/expulsion of erstwhile cooked air... That's kind of a wild card. We can see these flat-lined flows with subtle ridges (or even more ridging in some cases) come and go without the contained thickness' being usual ..and you end up pedestrian as far as positive departures. Other times one of those air masses gets ejected down stream and rattles around in that circulation and it's a bit of different ball of dripping wax... EDIT: oh wait ..duh.. you were talking about the 84 to 102 hour thing - okay. Yeah that would be something if we could map that sucker over top the 2 to 3" basin soaking the 06z NAM gives in the earlier periods.. That should be a good flood threat for short responders...

Yeah there's no question - the most objective interpretation of all information sources points toward a scenario that really should tack-out the misery meter ..particularly between Monday morning and Tuesday early afternoon. It would be a tough study to figure out how to even parameterize/quantify, but relative to the state of climatology? It could very well be the absolute limit in seasonal antithetic horror the atmosphere could achieve - no worse. The reason to advance that no worse notion is that anything that attempted assail upon our graceful senses any more cruelly, would...sort of recoup on the fascination and awe in matters... Like, I'd love to see it snow in June - never have. I saw a 2-meter graphic that drilled ORH to 43 F in daylight late tomorrow afternoon!! ...Unnnnfortunately for the 'wonder of it, the thermal profile only shows rising temperatures with altitude above that 1,000' of elevation until you get much higher... The state of present day climate really makes this whole in-coming ordeal border on creepy - like this can't happen? And it's been a repeating success story, too. We keep ending up here where/when the atmosphere engineers this sort of intense very target geographical assault on warmth. It's almost like we're caught up in some fluke, hemispheric scaled 'tuck' pattern.. Since April, perhaps an emergent property of all actions, on-going, in time and space? Like it's not a "pattern" per se - just a remarkably long anomaly of always flipping tails on a 50/50 coin. You live long enough, you'll see a coin flip 100 tails in a row (example). Only here, there's a negative node centered over SNE and its adjacent regions. In that node, come hell or high water, no matter what is happening over our atmospheric region of the hemisphere, there is a permanent negative. If can be 100 F for a high in that node, "SOME"thing will make sure it's 91 ... If it's going to be lousy weather? SOMEthing will make sure it pushes the envelope of what is plausible in Earth-bound physics for the month of June. We can't just get a couple of raining days at 60. good Christ. Anyway, I do think that 'relativity' really is getting stressed with this upcoming scenario. Like, I could see 43 F at 1,000 more likely in say, 1800 then 2017? It makes one wonder if this sort of thing set up back whence, what could it have done. 38 F back then ...mm weird cold summer events dapple the history books of those centuries for obvious reasons. Presently, this is a similar cold event during an era that doesn't have the same means to give it any additional momentum I suppose... Beyond this week, most are aware the pattern seems to want to change. It's been flagged for over a week... I remember 7 days ago the GFS 384 (highly likely to happen...) vision carved out a western trough/eastern ridge couplet... Since then, there have been more than a couple of runs, across the pantheon of Globals, that have even demo'ed Sonoran expulsion events (including the Euro's 00z from two nights ago...etc). The PNA teleconnector has supposedly entered the climate-based seasonal break-down in its correlation usefulness. However, I believe the tele's do bear some correlation provided the signals cross a kind of "threshold of coherence."... It's just that the return rate on those periods are rare enough not to depend on the index. If every member in the EOFs drills the PNA to negative 4 and holds it there for seven to ten days, it's not pointless to use that index. Though nothing like that is happening now, there is a PNA collapse from +2 to -2 before rebounding over the next two weeks coming from the CDC site. The CPC shows the index correction but not as extreme.. The former uses low-level wind flux anomalies, where as the CPC uses mid-level geopotential height anomalies in theirs... so it is what it is.. The NAO is relaxing the negative in both sources... It may all just precede a period of summer exhale where the gradient everywhere just sort of goes limp; the operational models going a too far with eastern height expanding. Or, it could mean a visceral pattern change toward a hotter summer, too... who knows. But the higher confidence take-away is that the era of unrelenting excuses to verify the coldest plausibility relative to all that is sane and decent may at last have a lease - finally!

And here's the GGEM for that same time frame ...with it's over-the-top Sonoran release about to deliver ...

hmm... I think less honestly, overall.. The 12z Euro was more than less jumping on my train about keeping the flow more progressive and thus related, it has also shaved some 2 to 4 decameters off the depth of that trough evolution - trend that I think cold happen again for one more cycle before it locks into its wheelhouse. At this point... keeps most inclemency packaged inside 30 hours as opposed to two full day's worth of pointing Atlantic dink and liberally relieving cryo-urin at us ...like the previous cycles. Actually, the 12z GFS may be the worst of the two models for that, ironically - Beyond that the Euro's really out to lunch in the late middle and extended imho - At 72 hours...it takes a weak to at best, lower middling trough in an amorphous relaxed geopotential gradient, up through Manitoba and suddenly out of now where ...buys straight dead balls on the same damn bias I've been hammering about seemingly manufacturing mechanics out of no where. It ends up carving out this giant deep layer winter trough. There is some amplitude (which could also be part of the same bias) smashing into the Pac coast day's 6/7 so some wave spacing kick-back okay...but that's just clearly way way overboard.

I've noticed this over the years. Sometimes the models will start lowering surface pressure around the SW Atlantic Basin ..a little too coincidental in time with the eruption of eastern middle latitude ridging between 100 and 60 W to think that's unrelated. It makes sense in a quick and dirty meteorological reasoning ... because heights rising then has a tendency to strengthen the easterlies off the SE coast, at the same time the U/A/ divergence at high altitudes gets established and that overall provides a favorable environment.