Typhoon Tip

Not sure how well known this is ... but, "Prince" was just a fantastic guitar player - if not virtuoso actually. He did a solo in the song, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" during .... 2004's Rock 'N' Roll Hall Of Fame' induction ceremony show that was mesmerizing. Fact of the matter is, there's probably a ceiling where a lot of these talents of the craft reach ...where beyond it really isn't very relevant because that realm is perhaps beyond the detection/perception of the common human ear and experience. We are not worthy to sit with that particular panel of judges. Hendrix was done right lewd ... .and, it's risky to cross-up genres anyway, because the comparisons cannot really be resolved - it's like asking what's a prettier color: red or blue. But Chuck Berry? ...he ripped solos so hot the Devil ducked out the backdoor... he was ludicrous as a Rocka-Billy tactiction.. And there's a whole pantheon of Blues gifts from god that walked amongst us disguised as mere mortals ...who when they played, heaven wept. I dunno... there's no EVH is better than "X" or "Z" at a certain point ....it's just honoring something extraordinary for having blessed our company ...all too brief was their stay, and made the world that much more bearable for their harmony.

Here's an easy prediction: Trump’s out of this thing in 4.38 days from right now… a time in which he experiences nothing further of consequence … --> Rage against the Liberal conspiracy-Pandemia

Would anyone happen to know where CDC is hiding the PNA/NAO/WPO/EPO product suite ? You go here, "https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ " And you are greeted with this, " Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much improved version 12, and this page is now obsolete. New reforecasts are available via Amazon Web Services for free download, at https://noaa-gefs-retrospective.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html, and you are directed there for data access...." But that link is an endless maze that frankly doesn't appear as though any engineering effort really had user accessibility in mind.. Am I simply overlooking - or... I am toying with the notion - either way - that this is just another example of bleed-over incompetence from the cultural influence of a kakistocratic government apparatus that swept in upon the election 2016, which began stripping institutions of wherewithal. Consequently, there are less professionals there that either care, or, know what the f* they are doing -

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands: A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.' It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those. The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities). We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there? But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense. Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs. Two is the sociological aspect... Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu. I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...' Bullshit! Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing. NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity. They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity... - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency. I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore. I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

I think high altitude smoke assisted this

One thing I did think was interesting about LA was the geology.... They have these cragged topography jutting out around the perimeter of the San Fer. Valley floor, which can look similar really to some of the juts around here... But hiking up trails where you slide partially backward in loose fragmented rubble ... the rock faces along side were physically peculiar. The surfaces look like solid stone but one can literally scoop a fist full of it without breaking a nail. I later learned it's called 'decomposed granite' ... it's like that because of eons of rattling by geologic seismic energy... along with erosive weathering from all the falsey anticipated El Nino winter forecast bluster .. heh. And then you look around up the hill at angles ... there are platformed homes built mid way up higher elevations - huh. One wonders how they are footed/anchored.. California is a powderkeg for natural disasters as we all know but hiking those hills that skirt the valley and learning about decomposed this and San Andreas fault that, and then touring the Getty Museum ... fantastic views, really. The facility is perched a mile or so elevation above the Valley floor and over looks LA skyline from the far side ...and you can see this caste orientation of honeycomb neighborhoods packing the floor, said mid elevation luxuries, yet higher above these ...palatial older money estates lord from mountain tops. It's got this like built in conceit that is only tangible from that sort of Holden Caulfield-esque perspective - an exposed fragility. First hand, it was an interesting tourism experience for me back in aught '03... Hey, I got to see a test screening for one of those earlier Harry Potter's .. second movie I think it was. But I came away with a sense that it may be fun to visit, but wouldn't want to live there. There's to much of an elitism overarching the "serfs of the valley floor" vibe about it all. Creative writing: I call it ethos-narcissism, where the region itself thinks it is a movie star - and it's genetics is just as vapid and undeservingly idolized to me as hollow celebrity worship really is. And you have to toe-the-line of your echelon and feed those above you to fulfill their cravings for your envy.

I wonder if any baby that was the 'honorary guest' of one of these beef-wit's quasi-narcissism events, where the parents impose self love on their unborn baby in the form of a reveal party ( oh my god, my baby's pussy or schmenze ! ) ...will grown up in painful secrecy coveting the information that it was in fact their pussy or chicken-toe that was the impetus for millions of acres consumed, dozens of deaths ... and indeterminate carbon fluxing into an atmosphere/environment already reeling from cumulative generations of Industrial farts - 'Magine that dude or chick... "See what my pussy is worth! "

lol -

Idiocracy is sweeping the technological helms of society .. People are not learning about reality anymore... They are "learning how to use tech" to pass tests and get ahead to get wealthy and laid... They don't think - and that is addling intellectual brain-trust of societies(y's) gears and buttons and levers, levels of decision and operations and everything else, start erroring and acting buggy... Eventually, no one will actually know how anything actually works... such that if something modulates in the onion layer of dependent tech that all this is built upon in strata -codependency framework, the whole thing risks coming to a halt while manuals are probed and people look up terminology in the dictionary along the way because they barely can read. ahaha. 'duh, how does the satellite work again ' ...' oh, you just just push this button, and a factory manufactures it somehow...and den ders dis system ...oh yeah! I think it's called Nassau and it's an island? it launches a rocket and ...." ... 'oh yeah, right - and then we push this button and a hurricane is caused by gay marriage'

Despite all "social injustice" and "economic iniquities" ... surplus conveniences allowing people to create drama and hostility instead of focusing energy on survival - does also sort of back us into a proof that if you take out that necessity, what remains is a douche-bag species. But, douche-bag is crass. Attempting something more intellectual: we are not as separated from the primal brain state of less evolved ( mentally ) species. I mean, everything else alive steals. Cheats. Murders. We just evolved morality meshing over eons to draw a cooperative approach to environmental/survival problem sharing/solving, because we are weak physically...with less built in protections and wherewithal through our descendancy. Cooperation and 'teamwork' is the human adaptation that really separates us from other animals that are non- anthropoda ( ants and bees). The catch-22 of technology in the "socio-technological evolutionary experiment" is that the advantages that we indulge and orgasm in, effectively cut the 750,000 years of evolutionary strings that were evolved along the way that we necessarily were dependent upon as our specific evolutionary need, to survive as a species. People risk becoming estranged and marginalized in such realms that turn off the instinct; depression ...and a spectrum psychological disorders become increasingly more prevalent ...and no one with an intelligence worth a salt would argue that lone shootings in shopping malls and schools is anything other than a social crisis precipitating out of that catch-22... ( my opinion on this particular evidence). Too many populous spanning too many generations ...living in relative convenience and provision accessibility is enabling the loss of the principles and virtuosities that kept communities of lore unilateral/bipartisan for their conception of what was really important, and how to function and operate as a collective cooperation. There was tension along the way. Things were never perfect. Civil wars are still a part of human history, and wars abroad for that matter... But, there is a separate emergent phenomenon of separatism that is occurring right down to the individual scope and scale.. Being accentuated and poked like a proverbial stick in a yellow jacket's nest, and it is tearing at the ( abused trope incoming - ) fabric of society(ies) threads by said convenience and provision addling. You didn't ask for this rant - no... And I don't claim to be a sociologist by education or trade. But, I agree with Steve there in 'principle' about stimulus ...namely, too much of it. I have not lived as long as our seniors in this social mediasphere destination...but, I am mid aged at this point. I have suffered enough decades along sides the vicissitudes of humanities shenanigans to have learned apriori ...and can do an intuitive arithmetic ...that throwing advantages and access at unfiltered and more times than not, unscrupulously mangled minds ... information at the 90th percentile of population en masse, is a catch-22 because the erosive power of enabling vitriol leads to this sort of social break down of norms...and unfortunately... when seating that phenomenon in a population surplus and other more veracious environmental threats looming as an over arcing thematic problem for actual life on this planet ( forget Humanity for -f sake! ), that only adds to sense of urgency to a world that needs 0 more stress. You know " being in the weeds " is a metaphor for when one is so caught up in a problem's whirling components, too much so. They can't see the bigger picture any longer and get sort of bogged down in the mire of unsolvability ... We are in the weeds as a world, and those weeds are tanned and waving in arid expanse of bereft conditional sociopathy, while a dry based thunder cloud spines blue pulses to the horizon ... All these various forms of aggrandized/fearing apocalypse'... no one would have thunk that technology could be the slow moving fires in which we currently burn.

You know ...it's funny..the morning WPC current surface ob shows that front still has not moved more than ~ 50 miles from the same sun-up position and axis of orientation, since yesterday at dawn. We were right to assess the boundary as having difficulty intruding into SNE during yesterday. I thought the warm front might get to HFD and I don't think that actually verified - though close? In any case, what were the bulk shear values - I didn't look...bummer. But it is truly astounding just how gradiented rich the region was between BOS-LGA ( rough coordinates..) during the day yesterday ( thermodynamically...). ... then, to run a mid level jet perturbation over that gradient meant hell to pay... Weatherwiz I think should get some foresight credit for the clearing offering some diabatic assist to instability on the polarward side of the NW-SE orient frontal boundary. I think he mentioned that, but... I'm not sure which side of the boundary those supercells were riding... interesting. The thing is, the boundary was initially SW of the axis of SC tracks, and it was repositioned somewhere in CT during the late morning early afternoon... when the clearing took place - not sure which happened first. Was the warm sector clearing? Or was the ceiling saturation drying from the sun and then the sun warmed and mixed out the shallow air mass allowing the warm front to reposition - ... geeks paradise -

Yeah I was going to suggest a seiche wave effect too.

reminds me of what happened farther east last week -

There's no question the warm boundary is currently collocated with the 500 mb streamlines ... It makes sense that it may have unfolded to about HFD over to SW RI... It might have had a chance to get to the Pike but we also have cool air banked in; viscosity/local topographical effects that are impeding. Mentioned earlier... we deal with limiting factors endemic to this region... in that the higher els of the Berks tends to pool dense air and protect it once said pool has filled in ... I wouldn't even be surprised if there's some SW push as this air up here is getting cooler with this rain too -

Nah...that doesn't mean the warm front is through there... Side's WPC doesn't agree -

yeah...and in the defense of the world that exists outside my skull I do tend to come off heavy handed with principles of Met and that probably rubs folks the wrong way ... heh, gee ..ya think ? anyway if the sun comes out and can diabatically heat; that can aid in warm frontal leaps ... right on! However, part of that successful leaping means the DPs actually have to come with it. Without them, it's really just a lucky sunny interval in an otherwise cold butt plugged typical New England stew - which frankly, I'm inclined to think that's how this results... Also in that as we type, that line is plugging SE and will prooobaby ( I'm guessing ) denature the atmosphere to a swath of low clouds afterward. I can't wait until tomorrow... The NAM has 30 to 40% ceiling level RH over the region at 8am ...with offshore flow at 850s supporting about 83 F ... totally different day

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun. Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours. But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector... Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that -

I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle - although ...wait...is that doing the depth of the column or is that an just the 850 slice... I may not be right - depends on the product orientation

Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales. There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that. In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would. One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean: I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"? But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide. Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster. It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves). This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence.

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't. Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad. When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow? That is like ..physically impossible. This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using? Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position. That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends... However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe. But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front. And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled) I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ?

Don't feel so bad ... there are two distinct chances for "responsible lust for destruction" on the 00z Euro beyond this joke, each far more interesting than this one ever should have been allowed to be...

Nope ...

Steve is like the heckler in the audience explaining to everyone why tongue-in cheek/sardonic wit isn't funny -