Typhoon Tip

I used to play that game when I was kid... Imagining Swiss Alps snow banks. I can remember being a teenager and my neighborhood was a short jaunt through shallow woods to a huge parking lot for a shopping plaza. After large enough snow events, the over night front end loaders banging, then the engines revving. Those piles grew immense, just like a the crags of mountain ranges as they lined the continental boundary of the parking lot. haha. Love for weather events and the affects it has on the environment, all natural events for that matter ... a lot of the fascination is what it does for the imagination.

Subtly the EPS mean looks like it's trying to capitulate some to the GEFs flatter/colder weekend scenario. It's not hugely obvious ... but the 00z didn't look quite as aggressively warm to me.

Sun was up prior to 7am here... I stood there looking at the red orb just as it crested the eastern horizon, also noting that it is up farther N along the horizon while earlier ( few minutes.. ) than just 10 days ago when I had a similar moment. I'm a dork. I noticed shit like that... what can I say. We are in the final chapters of winter ... The question becomes, how abruptly does the story end. No expectations in any given February, but I do think there is enough precedence for early warmth at a planetary consideration, to suspect that whatever stops doing this denial-enabling scenario ... just miiiiight transitions things faster than many think is possible. The other aspect, we've had these heat burst in Feb and Mar regardless of any leading long or short duration index this that and the other - so there's that too. Not chance of one of those given the present tapestry of guidance sources, no. But it's really a continuation of the above cold isolating theme. All telecon sources sans the -EPO... but, transition into a +PNA through the 25th. It's not a warm vibe there... SO, enabling or not ... whatever persistence led to the above January, seems to really still be partying on for the time being.

What interests me about the 20th emergence is that it's taking place in a modeled relaxation of the compression/speed anomalies. Short version, the relaxation is allowing more storm kinematics to be conserved at the smaller scales - which means better/more efficient/better timed field interactions --> storm production and power. ... Another way to look at it is the large scale flow slowing is less of a baked in negative interference. Long version, the -EPO is neutralized in the days leading, and though in theory this would stem our cold supply ... this is actually a well timed for the d(rotting) factor. I wouldn't want to wait on that much longer in an era that proves turning off cold supply modulates us on the + side of marginal quite quickly. Having a cryosphere throughout SE Canada and in our backyards is factorable in the environmental noise. The higher latitude on going -AO is then exerting a west motion through the lower Ferrel latitudes ( roughly along 55 to 70 N band). From 50 thousand feet, this conceptually sets up 40 N precarious for phasing. But, doing so with a relaxed gradient is far more likely to both succeed and produce a bigger event, then if this phasing potential is heightened while the flow along 40 N is compressed and fast. You can see these SPV fragments moving SW through lower Canada on the model cinemas, leading durig the 15th and the 19th, prior to the 16th but more importantly the 20th development. This is happening as the compression is easing and the flow is slowly opening up. The 20th is the less inhibited of the two, and that's why we see the the operational GFS with an unobstructed fully realizing S/stream bomb on the 06z, and the Euros multi contoured phased result in it's rendition for the 20th. The GGEM is also showing this cyclonic rotation of SPV parcels into the backside of S/stream S/W ... but it's holding onto the compression longer, which speeds the S/stream S/W movement through the field and that leads to more of the pacing/spatial temporal bipass issues. Who's worried about the GGEM at D 9 though.

yeah that’s interesting the icon’s doing something vaguely similar with this one and the weekend for that matter. it’s opening up these odd gaps in the qpf. it’s as tho the cloud layers were over seeded - like ‘hole punch’ phenomenon at synoptic scales

We are now moved out of the solar minimum and have begun the +solar transition season. Snow banks start getting eaten back on sunny days more readily. Car interiors may feel quite warm if not in the shade. Start planting toms from seeds and place them on the southern sills. ..etc.

Good - that means it's dislodged and mobile and probably an indicator of some sort of pattern modulation is underway - which at this point ... I'm ready to Etch 'N Sketch this sucker clean and go for some sort of new paradigm - if not new season... like next f'n year ... lol Anyway, not sure it is believable but there are massive changes in the telcon post the 20th. +EPO/+PNA ... with a completely neutralized AO. The hemisphere does in fact wash the table and sets up a pure +PNA mid latitude, with actually limited blocking at that time. Transitioning into that regime, from this may require some sort of inflection/correction event. H.A. leaps to mind. By the way...I've known this for days but there's no sense in bringing it up 2.5 weeks in advance ...etc

Heh... GFS can be juicier anyway, ... so long as this thing's moving at 55 mph it's trivial

Good question... Without being a red-eyed grad student ... the arm-chair supposition is that it is probably wave harmonics at very large scales. Think of it like "rogue" wave phenomenon in open ocean. Some times the waves all around a given wave, just happen to come into a constructive interference with that one wave, and they dump wave kinematic energy into that one wave. Sacrificing some of their own wave space power, the result is that one wave gets a massive boost, its crest seems to rear up out of nowhere. Sometimes as much 3 or even 4 X's the height of the surrounding tumult. As a fascinating aside... because the Gulf Stream orientation to the easterly trade wind- sfc stressing wave pattern, it is thought that a lot of the marine loses in the "Bermuda Triangle" might have actually fallen victim to rogue wave phenomenon.. The g-string current is upright against the E trade, or close to it... Anyway, that's all wave harmonics... The atmosphere also can do this.

here's a good example from 2004 to help elucidate this... In this case of now ( 2025 ) the -AO began to take place prior to the onset of the splitting vortex, nor was there this behavior noted in the vertical PV column leading ... SO yes to your question - it's a bottom up thing, but I wish folks would leave the SSW out of it because it just did not occur and whatever circumstance this is now that we are observing, it did not come about by the SSW model -

There's also no propagating ( down welling ...) SSW spanning the last 20+ days - this is an ordeal above that aroused via other wholesale mechanics.

This is pretty well set as a minoring snow to mix to crud while waiting for a polar boundary to swoop back through and sinter whatever it is that's on the ground - some of which might rapid melt if there is a 42-ish temp burst for awhile as the front first comes through and CAA is typically lagged by a little. System is ultimately weak, and ultimately moving too fast to really be much of an impact beyond that pedestrian sort of inconvenience. Also, like the last couple of events in this ludicrous speed flow, it will probably also attenuate if not just fail QPF realization by some 20 or 30% -

"...Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience..."

There was two reasons one might suspect a colder correction to these mid range products, but the models are carpet surfing reasons to offset them ( lol ) 1, the NAO being negative. Here's the rub on that... I just noticed that the NAO isn't actually negative at CPC. I was deferring to a different source before. So there's discrepancies/argument over the real index depending on what source is used. The CPC changed their calculation approach last year. They still use PCA ( Principle Component Analysis - you can look that up.. ) but they now rotate it... "rPCA" The 'supposed' advantage, is that it lower(raises) the field and exposes a 'truer' value. Whether that is true in this case or not, it just is what it is ..and right now they are actually positive-neutral-positive. The other source I've seen is negative. However, the insistence of these operational runs to run the 13th ( for example ) up the St L. corridor, strikes me as a positive leaning NAO - less colder correction chances. Or... if all this isn't complicating enough, the NAO ( as we know... ) can be distributed more west or east in the domain. That can f'up the expectations in its own right. So the bottom line on the "correction vector" ...it's not as clear. 2, compression and faster streamline flow tends to offset curved surfaces. That's just physics. That's why the wave numbers go down in the heart of winter, because the flow speeds up with seasonal gradient increase.... and this necessarily stretches the L/Ws ... This principle applies also to the anomalous state of compression that is exaggerated over the continent, which has been demonstrative if not predominating this winter as a predicament. Anyway ... this tends to keep the trajectories from turning as the deep layer troposphere leans more w-e in the flow type. As an aside, the 16th is nuts... Both the EPS and GEFs take a NY Bite low center at 162 or so hours, ...and 6 hours later, it is E of the BM! That's like 350 naut miles, so this low is moving 60 or 70 mph.

It doesn't even end winter... It just makes it misery. Rain than refreeze... rinse and repeat 1980s. Not sure why "Dr No" was ever euphemistic; it should have been "Dr. Asshole" - I mean if we're ending winter, as in penetrating thaw under climbing sun, I'd be all for that. That shit last night's just a dudgeon

Get a look at the AI for the 23rd

Something I've noticed about any guidance from the Canadian species ...they just can't ever have ZR in the artistry of the chart cinemas. It's either snow, or a 300 mi wide sleet swath than rain through the event cross-section

Well ... vectors are like assholes, I guess If I were to summarize a vector I'd say pointing toward attenuating as it approaches in time, while tending suppressed. I don't know what that means for future model solutions containing dark blue ink and magenta QPF

I dunno if it's completely opposite... First of all, I don't believe any such "consensus" contained huge confidence related to individual events - that may seem academic but still needs to be said... That pattern was more certain than the dissemination of goodies. However, I don't believe the limitations and so forth are as important to people's perceptions as they should be - that gets us into trouble. We don't filter, we let our hopes up, then we are jaded - that's our own fault... I recall saying myself back a week or so ago that we may miss some of these events that were out there at the time. Anyway, the 6th was never a big deal...and relative to that, it became even less. Then, this last night... I think it did okay, it just did it N of where people of expected. Kind of reminds me of how gradient surplus back in 2001 screwed the Mid Atlantic and sent the big storm into central NE then too - altho a different non-analog, in principle, these speed saturated patterns tend to correct down stream...etc.. Point being, it was a little less... So what we're doing is toying with the idea of a pattern relative performance. If the first couple in the series under-perform ... how does that set our confidence in the 13th or the 16th or the 20th... ? At least this is my take on it -

I will say that I'm not inclined to believe the Euro cluster's either intensity, nor the NW positions given this hemisphere circumstance. Yet, the mean keeps getting stronger on each run cycle. hahaha It seems that was also dependable correction in the run-up to last night; indeed, we saw move (actually inside of 96 hours, too) toward a better 'fit' for the limitations imposed by compression. Namely curved trajectories, like early turns, and deeper lows ..etc, are not as physically capable. I'm not sure if this is the same scenario. The GEFs, grudgingly having to admit LOL ... were a better conserved option for those limitations. So, why is the EPS mean so wildly evolved for the 16th when all those considerations are still in place? It seems so long as we're in the same pattern, a kind of "pattern relative performance" might be useful. man what a headache

That ^ bold is fact, eh ? LOL Like I said in the missive, ".. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return..." Not sure objective consideration needs to be interpreted as zealot. You say or admit that CC is real, but then if someone offers consequence as mere hypothesis to explain observation ( hint hint, the scientific approach ) you get pissy and condescending - okay

EPS mean is under 990 mb E of Boston, having moved from the Bite along or just S of LI, but ut the 850 mb is too warm. Altho I'm not sure that's abundantly important for the resolution/mean at 168+ hours.

ehh there's something else obviously different - sorry Sometimes a when quacks like a duck, it's a duck. I guess we'll find. Above will turn out true ...and summarily everyone thinks how 'no one saw it coming' lol

Finally ... a Euro solution in this pattern where everyone brims with d-drippin' joy