Typhoon Tip

Hypothesis ... but I wonder if that curve doesn't ascend above 2024 or at least match, over the next month as the sun continues to seasonally rise over the northern hemisphere. During that period, the land masses will be brightening their thermal contribution ( increasing absorption --> LR ...etc), while at the same time, the southern hemisphere's still contributing source due to summer lagging. One aspect that may interfere ( keep things 'artificially' colder ) is that the hemispheric pattern foot appears to be situating a cold variant. There is tendencies to A/B phase the North Pacific circulation mode, and that is a cold load into eastern Asia and the North American continent, as well as tendencies to do so in N Europ over to the Urals. That may offset the initial warming response as the climbing sun angle happens quite fast at this time of year. Interesting...

Another one of these crushingly deep radiational cooling nights. 25 here 36 up stairs on the hill at ORH 11 F variance between ... I feel like it's winter really until the frost stops. Period. I don't care if it's 80.... if this cold crap can't stop at night where we plumb to brick earth depths, it's still winter. You just may not be getting the fuller plate of offerings but the season's stuck in piece of shit purgatory until that stops.

... yet another way to consider things, it's just past mid March. What are we expecting for sensible weather, or what the day-to-day modeling cinema really should be for warm enthusiast d-dripping haha I realize the last 15 to 20 years worth of springs have maybe molded perceptions. This year (so far) seems to be a dichotomy of aspects. It's appealing as cold and lingering in the pattern, replete with risks therein ...while also being warmer than normal. The other thing that makes this perception aspect interesting is that we are blazing away with +4 to +5 type departures as of the 15th at the major climate sites, yet we're feeling lovelorn for spring? I don't know how fair or just any sense of loss really is ... I blame the models. I think there's a collective psychobabble response thing that happens when the impressions given by the models, over time, tint people's perceptions of what the reality is. If the models are consummately showing X when people want Y, there's this mood.

from 360 hour out ... ? no, it wasn't

Heh unlikely to ever happen, if it even shows up on tonight's run

Unless it's May 2005 ... all kvetching considered, that May was far worse. It qualifies as the worse calendar month that's ever happened, since that fateful day a comet impacted 65 million years ago ... kicking off a mass extinction that would end the dinosaurs reign. It's amazing humanity survived 2005 as it is, it was so macabre miserable - poets were left speechless. Mathmaticians left it as an unsolvable three-body problem of sodomy

It's funny he refers to it as a "tunnel" because that's precisely what gets stuffed by it right up the tunnel !

Frankly ... I like the UKMET's look for Friday the best. It really this should do jack shit. I could see it smelling like snow cold mist as it ends more than actual snow in the air. It's a progressive system in a pattern foot that has never favored anything deepening/developing in time since 2015 so -

You guys didn't ask me but re the operational majors. The GFS typically lags behind the others during the winter into spring seasonal change. It's a subtle issue with that guidance ( not very obvious ...) but it tends too end up with a surplus of cold heights out in time. I've even mused at times that it seemed to do so at the same rate the complexion of the hemisphere should be gaining heights from solar forcing and normal migration. It's like its bias almost proportionately offsets spring's advance. That's why if anyone's bothered to remember how the model has behaved during this time of year, over the years ..., you might recall that it tends to end up with longer ranges that look like winter synoptics at oddly late times. Say you are looking at a May 8th LR outlook from April 25th, and it's ending up with blue dipping lines S of Chicago with turbo jet strengths... Meanwhile, the other guidance are already hinting at Sonoran/SW heat releases. Anyway, there's a pretty obvious multi-guidance ens sourced -WPO/+PNA ( EPO's a little flat... but whatever ) between the 23rdish and the 30thlike ... Uh, not a good look for spring/warm enthusiasts. So both these colder correlations, and the GFS doing so anyway ... are concurrently true. There's a lot of reasons to suspect that we won't max as cold as the correlations would fit, however - rabbit hole. You know ...we just went through almost 10 days of -NAO, much of which was even west based, yet put up positive departures for the period in March. Correlations have been getting stressed over the years ... That look, -WPO/+PNA showed up during this winter on a couple of occasions. Yet, only unrelenting poor performance drove many of us to divorce our ambitions for the seasonal intercourse so to speak, so now in spring? It gets even uglier. We'll see, but to me the GFS should be suspect when given any excuse to validate it's masturbatory habits with the N stream. While at the same time ... -WPO/+PNA ... could still perform when we least expect it to do so, thus ... abasing the veracity of this clad reasoning in lieu of enabling fuckery.

You'll likely have some in air Friday

The Euro solution from 12z makes the most sense

Yeah.. an active year that no one knows about because apparently that helps make america great again

Euro looks more ANA and less coiled up so fast ...that may actually be more reasonable given the pattern foot

No problems with this take above. I've been saying also for years actually ...that more and more so we are becoming reliant upon direct cold sourcing into events or the profiles ( this'll trigger some posters ...) are rain now. As an afterthought, there's arguments that we are a NJ climate from 1990s - the climate migration up the coast is a real thing

Yeah, I don't have a problem with this idea... Said words to a similar notion earlier myself. I'm sort of jaded by the fact that just about every cold pattern, suggestive by telecon and/or in the materializing charts et al ..., invariably relay from the LR as being a tepid version. It still got "colder" but just not as such - Both aspects can be true, tho. We can be looking at -EPO dump and +PNA relay, *but* ..it ends up being less amped and also faster to move thru. OR, this could be the one time we buck that persistent behavior and get Spring donged up the proverbial butt ... there's always that -

-EPO/+PNA interval between the 22nd and 28th most certainly does ... Not a matter of disagreement - that is clad

Hmm... not sure how this doesn't qualitatively indicate colder than normal...

So a 2 or 3 hour burst of wet snow around the back side of the rapid ANA low deepening as it exists on Friday... mainly a car-top and middle lawn whitener. 33 ..34 F parachuting. Relative to season that's an impressive cold load into S-SE Canada soon after, which may or may not set the stage for a more interesting amplitude circa 25th. Post equinox but ... in 2004 ( maybe it was 2005) I parked my car 1:20 pm in front of single story mall plaza on an errand, and snow was blowing off the flat roof at that time of day, somewhere during the first week of April. It's hard to blow snow at apex solar after April 1, but there I was ... eating spring shit. To mention 1982, 1984, 1987, 1997...etc etc. It's lower confidence for a specific event within, but the period between the 22nd and 30the is set up for a colder complexion at mid and N latitudes of the continent given the unanimously agreed upon teleconnector correlations for the time period - it's been consistent in that regards as well. Still ... am a little leery due to a history of attenuating cold scenarios in models despite leading tele's and extended looks once getting into middle terms. Less has proven the money making gamble. In the nearer terms ... enjoy tomorrow, which will likely go above machine numbers by a little given 850's of +4 or 5C still and the backside air mass being more Pac origin and coming d-slope under full-ish sun. Wed/Thurs look like days that could have been milder, but will probably see a pretty strong west penetrating cold llv flow by mid day, both days, given that high is retreating E and not S of the region. So western NE will be warmer on those two days than eastern zones in that synoptic layout. Logan is 52 and Springfield MA is 67 and ALB is 72 spit ball numbers

The passenger seat with that Mac-10 semi auto laying purposely right next to a snow total chart that clearly defines a screw wedge right over NYC, makes the scene -

I have this weird fetish ( or perhaps guilty pleasure) where whenever I see a blurry photo like this of C and B rated up-and-coming "artists" from that 1970s opportunistic poppy disco era, I smirk. I then find it so entertaining to investigate that random guy/girl's life and how it reads it must of been like some 15 or 20 years later on... Some of them you may be surprised that it parlayed. "Oh, that's so-and-so.. huh. That's where they came from." But for most of them, mmm. If their bio's don't cover nicely for them with the euphemism, "retired to a quiet life," there's can be such inhaling-hiss cringe-worth stories at times. heh

yup the future is completely free of any cold anxiety ... all's well

agreed in principle. but this year's tendency to find a way to make N/A continental mid latitudes pretty much own all the cold anomalies in the hemisphere ..save for minoring in other locations, seems to still haunt the models - even absent now of the -EPO plagues, they're persisting in leaking enough cold into the Canadian shield to bleed in. This aspect of the EPS is not a cold shot though? sounds like that's what your thinking - I may not have that right. But it's more of a pattern driven thing with the current EPS mean. Hopefully it just breaks down... but the GEFs is really indicating -850 anomalies over the border and an active stormy +PNA hybrid canvas, too. so ... it just seems whatever bug up her ass it is, Gaia just wants to fuck with us while enabling deniers LOL Edit, the 2-meter temperatures ... not 850 abv

the other way to look at that vicious cycle is that humanity has no f'n clue how it's actions will ultimately effect the global system. oh we have an idea... but the details are unknown, and that is where the bombs detonate. like ... taking out sulfer dioxide making co2 heat absorption more efficient ... triggering a global thermal burst. what the hell else has no prediction that's yet to be discovered - weee the greatest natural disaster ever to befall this planet's history may in fact turn out to be the arrival of human innovation

EPS BNs the temps at the end of next week and then locks it thru 360 hours.

I'm actually not ... I mean, yar it's there but the background is too progressive for me to think anything severing in the mid/u/a would have much hope of sticking around. In fact, it's probably moving right along as it is severing - so it's only really 'quasi' closing off in that sense. If we wanna see a cut-off butt fucker pattern ... May 2005, April .. pretty much every April had at least one from 1985 to 1988 ..etc, would be better paradigms. The trough next week passing west to east probably prevents that.