Typhoon Tip

Oh I'm sure each rendition has it's own extra special shittiness

Heading into week 2 is a disaster but that's probably bullshit at this range

12z Euro looks quite a bit different than that 00z run for later next week. Pretty significant l/w ridge with less trough incursions up the EC ... surface fronts probably too far E into the ridge given that depiction by obviously that sort of detail ...actually the whole pattern, are negotiable at this range.

not to be a dick but ... I mean I admit to it too - something about these GFS solutions seem awfully cold for time of year, recent year's worth of spring behaviors... CC/attribution. And probably there is some acclimation bias, too. Yet, we keep getting days like today. The GFS may be wrong with the details, but it's not very "napey" when the wind blows. It's annoying. So it's kind of right in a way. A cold day that is confusing, or perhaps obscuring from attention that we are still ending up +1 on these annoyingly chilly days. What's really going on there is that we are "frigid" relative to those three very real aspects. Just not necessarily in deference to climatology. That's like a the GFS is right about a cold pattern that's getting lost from credit for getting at least that much of it right.

Yeah the meteorology of this boundary circumstance is pretty fantastic 33 in Lowell and nearing 80 in HFD that’s kinda awesome really if that sets up like that.

Man … this airmass is legit. 37/19 post equinox full sun approaching 10am is grade for a-hole in the earth New England shitshow climate incarnate.

The NAM actually does have a different synoptic scenario - not a lot but crucially so. It has a slightly stronger surface wave moving along the boundary along a farther N latitude - actually way up by PF-Dryslot transit. The 12z precariously dangling boundary that's sort of right on top of me actually ...ends up over N Nashua NH by 10 and to 2pm. Two cautions though... The NAM typically has a N/NW bias at this range with just about everything that it does. The other is probably an even greater limitation on confidence, it's the NAM. I don't know but expressively it's like 1::100 return rate for the a warm solution to work given a NAM vs the world competition in this regard. Yeah, it's true that the NAM [ in theory ] should have better surface resolution when it comes to cold undercutting antics... however, that is moot if the wave does in fact scoot by that far N - I'm just not sure that's not a NAM fantasy. If that corrects S along with the front, the NAM would then be the more aggressive and the BD slams through Chesapeake Bay

... It's a sharpy differentiated air mass situation this weekend, particularly Saturday. Actually some of the bigger lateral gradients, across the boundary, as we are capable of physically generating around here - mainly the warm side is being rather eye-poppish. I like this UKMET's Rembrandting, call it the "Portrait Of Frustration" ... But it's also among the warm guidance. The GFS and less popular ICON as others were noted are suppressing the boundary farther S than this below. As I said yesterday ... climo, and experience, both, for late March do not support any warmth N of central NJ - particularly when you have +PP loading going on across southern Ontario, spilling around the corner of the Whites/Greens topography. The models are likely not correct in the implied vector pointing SW due to the fluid mechanics of DVM curl - that is a built in perpetual restoring force in this cold suck circumstance around here. The only way to combat that is to change the synoptics. so we'll see ... good luck

Euro trying to go N with the front on Saturday, too - in fact...it looks like it gets up to S VT/NH so much of SNE busts into warm sector, 18z Saturday Actually edit: it's not as far N as it looked from that broader synoptic perspective. It's about the same as where the GFS places it. Significant gradient through the region

time to force feed a random poster a bunch of philosophy no one asked for ... When one implements a combination of climatology with experience, this weekend's doesn't have a prayer of elevating temperatures as high as the Euro vision ...anywhere N and E of about middle NJ About ... oh, 1 time in 100, warmth wins when looking at a 108 hour table setting that features pure arctic crystal air slabbed into Ontario, back built by actual sfc +PP. ... so, we'll see.. Over the next 10 days, the EPO rises into a warm mode(positive), while he PNA settles into a warm mode (negative), per the ensemble mean derivatives from both the EPS and GEFs. Yet, among the operational model versions, we have been seeing these persistently modeled impressive cold slabs at continental sized air masses, dumped into southern Canada, replete with +PP to implicate the correction vector is always pointed S ... The ens/indexes have seasonality + some of other argumentative stuff to support it. These op versions have an antecedent cold winter ( relative to the world) persistence that despite some mild days recently, doesn't really "feel" like it's let completely go of the nut grip. Not when you see this f-up verkokta hemisphere below... This is a minefield of reasons not to assume it warms up until something erases this the hemisphere in lieu of an entirely new paradigm. I'm not sure what that will take ... maybe July ? For that matter, how the hell the numerical calculations for the index fields end up with a +EPO/-PNA with this is really rather remarkable. It's like the circulation mode is designed to be cold using warm correlators

If it's showing that at this time range, it will be farther S when reality rolls around

Yep … can’t even celebrate the amazing achievement of zero snow in March by sqeezing off a single petty turd flake to steal that too …

It was only one run … it could seesaw back to the previous look just as well

Not much chance of any meaningful warm up on this 12z op Euro.

Short answer, no. But, why would that be the case? Not sure how the CO2 --> O2 exchange ... keeping the pre IR ( industrial revolution) ratio of these critical elements in check, would lead to an Ice Age "without" human involvement. That doesn't logically follow - I wonder if what you mean are natural processes? Yeah, ice ages come and go over millennium by other processes. But the human role in driving climate, now, is proving both mathematically and by observation to be a pernicious agency for destruction. It's a dire circumstance that its moving just slow enough that the idiocracy can't see it happening in real , thus undeniable space and time. Human are not controlling the climate in any absolute sense. That's not what's going on there. They are modulating by their surplus green house gas emissions... Modulating in a bad way by surplus and temperature response having faster than adaptation ultimately... so the exchange mechanisms can't keep up. Species can adapt to rapidity of temperature change... etc etc

oh of course. again...just using the example

The EPS is warm ... and it doesn't appear ( in principle ) to be largely enough differentiated from the 00z GEFs derivative re the combination of the EPO/PNA, either. Both were similarly warm. Here's the EPS' PNA top, EPO bottom

Oh, your fucked up there - high confidence bum tenderizer pattern all the way down to S NJ for that matter. So Maine? - probably could go ahead and change its name to "Shawshank" - ha...actually, I think that film's prison setting was supposed to be in Maine. weird. Anyway, the N stream is active... even the Euro solution. I mean it's cold as a witch's tit right up to the door stop, and then it's 80 in PA being a circumstance resulting from an N/stream that is persisting beyond seasonality across S Canada. The 00z GGEM looks likes it accepted a pay-out by the GFS coup de etat attempt over spring even happening on Earth ( eh hm). Both have some kinda blue bomb implicated some point between D7 and 11 out there. Sell ... Kidding aside, there's a lot of large scaled indicator conflicts right now. The operational GFS derived teleconnnector for the EPO is just about exactly opposite it's own ensemble derived value. It's like +2 SD in the GEFs, vs -2 SD int he GFS. So there's a major internal breakdown there. I'm not sure why-for, but that kind of diametrical anomaly distribution creates a ginormous implication variance for for cold loading across the Canadian shield. The EPS on the other hand, does not have this conflict between itself, and the operational version. Both are +2-ish SD. So less in the wave of breakdown. +2 is warming signal mind you, particularly in the presence of an ongoing -PNA the PNA is in fact negative in the EPS and GEFS, and the operational GFS is neutral-neggie. So this is an odd morass where the operational Euro is a warm outlier relative to the operational GGEM and GFS, but neither the of the latter, having 00z cinemas of endless trough carving and abeyance of any seasonal migration/climate awareness over eastern mid latitude continent have much larger numerical mass field support. I guess I lean warmer given to the weight of the ensemble mean, but since there is an active N/stream and cold presentation in the Euro, this is precarious at best. The Euro could in principle end up more right about a warmer ridge and we get completely tubed up the rectum and it's not even on the weather charts its so discrete. God I love spring in this dumpster land

It's possible - I don't know Mr Shewchuck's established and/or known biases .. no clue, just using this example - that this was a part of a longer sermon. C02 is critical to the existence of life on this planet. Without it ... most species cannot exist. How? That's where the Oxygen we need to live comes from. 02 dependent organisms cannot live without C02 --> 02 fixing mechanisms to continuously resupply the O2. Oxygen breathing/metabolizing organisms evolved after this fixing mechanism arrived on the scene, ~ 2.5 billion yrs ago . C02 was here first, however. Virtually all the O2 in sufficient amount to sustain all this bio-diversity ( ..as well as the oxygen used in/for human forced combustion ) since, required the fixing. It owes its ongoing existence to this background exchange between CO2 and O2. O2 cannot otherwise exist in sufficient mass long enough on its own because of it's reactive volatility - look at how fast iron turns to rust. When raising the mass of CO2 beyond the exchange rate, while maintaining the same amount of incoming energy, the temperature rises with it. When lowering the CO2 with the same constraining factors, the temperature thus falls. This critical fact is what keeps this world in an inhabitable temperature range. For this, it is a climate regulator. So, Mr Shewchuck is right: it enhances the climate. See where I'm going here? If you stop there, that entire message conveys a marvelous denial manipulation. This is just one way in which miss-representing a source and intent, miss-guides a reader. He may have done this deliberately? Or, he may have been a victim of a redacted repost - in which cast that was not his intent. Either way, we end up with his 'enhancing of the climate' leaving off the following key facet and the whole fucking problem: It's the part above where adding more CO2 to a planetary system raises the temperature. If needing it spelled out...when exceeding the background CO2 fixing/exchange rate, we end up with a surplus which inimicably creates a surplus in temperature. That conceptual arithmetic could not be any simpler... And the physics shows 100% causal with zero objective variance. It's amazing how clad it is... God at times even trips over his own creation and has to go, 'shit i can't deny that' it's so clad. The objective physics is that C02 stores energy --> more C02 stores MORE ENERGY. As for those lower educated mouth breather asshole deniers( along with sociopathic leaders that know all this yet don't care or demonstrate any cognitive dissonance to it one way or the other... ), well ... shit - this is probably going to have to end as a slow moving Darwin award.

This week was supposed to be a nasty asshole weather week now since 2 week's worth of every indicator there is that exists to the soon to be defunct NOAA, anyway. Get over it. Better yet ... let's do this: decree that CC doesn't exist and have the NOAA sign it. Yeah yeah. that way, president Dump and his surrounding minion sociopaths and mouth breather enabler trust fund sycophants will then let everyone back in to work and play - because that's apparently all it takes to eliminate the problem, put our collective heads in a proverbial paper bag like that other brilliant warm blooded animal, cats! The pattern is mode appears to rapidly exit next weekend... It's a week. It's just a couple of more losses fucking up everyone's brackets even further, then it's over.

i dunno - you tell us . .hahaha

I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but .., relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution. Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture. Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ). But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time. What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya? good luck with that. ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today. LOL

Well it’s not happening tomorrow LOL

Climate change will impose a population correction. This is all going to be similar to the story of Noah … ridiculed and pelted while he struggled through it to build the ark. Then the rains came … and came, and came and came. And as the hordes began to drown, they had no boat of their own - and the ark was insufficient to house them Only this time it will ironically be by fire … at least as a metaphor.