Typhoon Tip

Boom... I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo. when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely. what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.

that chart does not signify "no sign" - to say so doesn't do this source any help in confidence they know how to interpret

I actually completely agree with this source's "hot take" on the outlook.

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-fossils-earth-famous-extinction-climate.html Particularly alarming when the study cites destruction of the tropical flora band, which is precisely what anthropomorphic influence is doing

just need tomorrow and heat wave #2's in the books

I edited that My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Seems like Thursday is explosive but the models are skimpy of the QPF nodes you typically see with that. UKMET's okay ..sorta. But the Euro and GFS ..NAM and whatever aren't impressive. Yet, the synoptic cinema has cold mid level with rim arriving after we've cooked CAPE. Just in principle some one some where's getting a tropopause rolling 50k foot top baseball thrower actually ... hm, DPs are lower now that I check. I thought those were supposed to be mid 60s but the Euro's dry. OH, wait. never mind... Yeah no this doesn't add up. The Euro should nuke

I think this is my highest DP of season at 76 and it's 92. KFIT's 90/72 so the HI is up there.

90/74

yeah.. it's largely un-noteworthy. But I think there's some value in tracking it climate-wise. My feel is that this has a shot at being a substantially above normal July. I don't think we've had a lot of July's like that in recent years - my impression is anecdotal, but it seems we're more impressively above normal during winter as of late. KBOS was 89.6 yesterday and again a few minutes ago today. Rounding?

so, yesterday was 90 here. Seems well enough corroborated with surrounding home sites and KASH... now it's 89. 90 is in the bag. If we do this tomorrow it's official. It would be the 2nd heat wave of this young summer.

89/74

Heh ... ICONological heat this next Monday, huh -

Both Japan, and the Mediterranean (Sea, not sure on air but France and eastern Iberian Penn were just roasted in in 42C) observed their hottest Junes on record.

NAM insists on a pretty significant temperature burst in 2-3 hrs. WPC analyzing the warm boundary W-E thru central NE; the region's primed for a temp rise. High res vis imagery suggests the mid level gunk is smearing away and immediately there's skylights opening up over NE PA/E-SE NY. It's early ... As that tendency arrives, we'll likely see better heating.

90

can you imagine if the present gaggle of corruption actually possessed intelligentsia and mole'd their way into the modeling framework ?

heh okay. yeah, i guess to each is his own. i just am sitting here working from home precariously nearing turning on the cooling dial on the mini splits. it's gone above comfort.

feels very warm to me. 86 to 89 at most home/non-official sites, enough en masse that combined with almost nill movement to the air and intense insolation, that's pushing it

the reason is a political backed decision by the present administration, tho

omg, that's so funny. Not joking, I literally just said in my mind that exact same sentence. that's weird

For shits and giggles ... these are the ICON's 2-m Ts for 18z a week from today -

12z operational GFS is approaching 600 dm SSE of Cape Cod while the whole NE region is immersed in 588 + dm ridge node, with a plume of trapped +21C 850 mb air rattling around inside of it resonating to the diurnal cycle. That's at D7.5 so likely to modulate in future guidance, but that's obviously an implication of something more than merely AN later next week.

it further enables certain agencies if they are not potentially surveyed

I like cold pool alofters .. those days have better lapse rates. I've come to find over the many years of my un-affecting existence that all other metrics notwithstanding, we need mlv lapse rates around here.