Typhoon Tip

I suspect there are competing forces going on right under anyone's awareness. There's been trough anchored over Quebec, and static confluence parking a low thermodynamic surface ridge right over head, which really shuts off continental heat conveyors from getting in here. while there is 540 DM heights and even grapple/wet snow over the NP of Michigan and probably hard frosts N of the ST Lawrence Sea Way up there NW of Maine. This pattern is not a warm one when/if that is the case, but the stalled sfc ridging combining with aspect of CC are combining to host modest H850 warm anomalies/heights to stall over our sub-continental space. Like a sub-anomaly. As an interesting aside, these stalled highs were always part of autumn climatology last century, usually in October and associated with Indian Summers in Novembers, too. Anyway, so we're approaching 80 in the afternoons, during these above other circumstances outside our region due to a semi-coherent +PNA. It's more unusual than some may know. There's also another dimension to this worldly change that is under the radar: warm intrusions, which can and do happen even in cooler profiled hemispheres, are warmer than they were 30 years ago. Two consecutive days of hydrostatic heights nearing or even exceeding 570 dm, like the consensus appeal the models have for this Fri/Sat window, is getting late in climo and thus "seems" like a warmer than normal pattern. But it's just a warm sector during a cool index mode ... still is taking place in the midst of at least a modest +PNA with the 'real' heat packed back west over the western continent. In 1990, that'd be 74 with 62 dps probably. So how does one separate the two? which is it? Is it a warmer than normal pattern... or is the pattern just over-producing a warm transience in cool hemisphere, because CC is obfuscating what's really going on along with everyone's ability to understand what is really happening? I really need to see a -PNA with a neutral EPO actually manifest, otherwise ... we are over performing warmth in a cool larger sense of it. As far as this Margrave whatever you spell him, I suspect he has a chilly functional bias, yeah... Upon sensing the abstraction of any cooler anything, his willingness to pounce is a bit transparent to and annoying. So, we he detects a +PNA lurking in the "subplot" of the models, but is going to probably stop where ever the cool quotient is seen - and thus not seeing these competing deeper aspects. Because the saga of 2025's late summer and now early autumn is deeper and more complex than those CPCs charts. Which, it's not clear he understands the difference between 60% chance of cooler than normal, vs blue colors intending to actually say it will be cooler than normal. For some reason... how to use those charts doesn't get learned by people. That means there's a 40% chance it will be above normal, btw -

Actually, 'General Sherman' the 120 year old maple at the corner of the lot and looming shade producer ... is sadly beginning to change now... The earliest I've seen that happen. I'm worried about the big guy. But... he may just be responding to something environmental that permeates the landscape. Because this is happening up and down Rt 2 and 91 between Rt 2 and Worcester. Early juts of color. Some of it looks dull and diffusing green/beiges.. .dryness probably plays a role? I'm also wondering if the smoke days at mid summer may have f-ed with the foliage.

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powder keg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that. Even acceptable winters rarefying moving forward. We’re not at 0 now tho To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts. We have to kind of think of it that way. Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus. I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

This next one has a better chance than Erin did, relative to the outlook range, spanning the eastern continent and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. Note, better chance does not mean this: The CPC's handling of the PNA index has it rising positive, while the NAO is bucking for a vague negative. That's all but a 101 requirement, particularly if the latter is over the western limb. To soon to know if that's the case but just numerically, this is a better canvas. Erin never even had an easel. Anyway, the idea of a warm up mid month still does not have a lot of legs in the index spread. It matters. If we succeed in doing so, this idea dries up. Can't really have both. A pattern relaxation will likely ensue beyond this trough anomaly deal through the Lakes. The operational runs will tend to bounce the pattern aggressively the other direction, and by that I mean too much. The index/PNA rising seems in conflict here. I could see the flow relaxing, and by virtue of that... yeah, warming, but uuusually, a rising PNA doesn't set the table for an eastern/WAR -like response. It's interesting... a period of some competing indicators. I tend to lean on the ensembles, however. So, meanwhile, the MDR reactivates here over this week. Any TC born out of that may find a position not as polarward as the GFS is attempting by circa D6/7. This is also a known bias at long leads regarding operational guidance, definitely with that particular model. Having too much "beta drift" (sus therein), it likes to move these systems into the Sargasso Sea while maintaining a west track at like 36 N.. Compensating for these behavior biases may see a TC closer to the NE Windward Islands by D6 or 7 ... which also fits the EPS, although I that forecast system seems a little weak considering the favorable main metrics of lowering shear, ample OHC, and lowering SAL. All these facets ... mmm, I won't calling them compelling just yet. Too strong. But, I'm willing to actually look at the models this time. LOL

Mmm not right. The bold is a miss-representation of both intent, but even black and white written word. For someone that spends the amount of time as you do, composing these various articulations, you should perhaps spend as much focus for clarity on the other side of the pen. "... if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. .." I've always made it clear ( ... when not being a snarky douche on purpose because it is fun to spark off meaningless internet fights haha ) that this is an art of tendencies. "Less Reliable" intimates that to the objective reader. That is not "John seemingly disregarding" anything. Aside from the fact that multiple other times, I literally have to write the sentence, "keep in mind, this is tendency" - which shockingly, never seems to penetrate or modulate the readers comprehension, particularly when having to do so violates the dignity of the curvaceous winter model. Gee. I mean come on... we're past this, or should have been 20 fuckum years ago, or whenever it was that we learned climate is a jagged serrated affair over time. The trend is not arguable. Our winters are suffering. That tendency model is constructed by the deeper trend analysis. Not by these transient seasonal teleconnectors, which are also flat empirically already demoing this is all academic at this point. It's silly to try and argue. You can get a big winter. Fuck yeah. Of course. We are more apt to observe that in 1900 than 1990, and more apt to do so in 1990 than 2025. And unless "broader consideration" changes, even less so in 2050. That's the reality of our world. Get used to compensating, and valid, reasoning that upsets the apple-cart of classic modes.

? any different in the winter

Two schools ... 1 climate; we're always getting some kind of decimal value feedback that corrupts toward higher numbers. Emphasis on DECIMALS. Still ... it plays a role. 2 excluding that ... this month has never looked convincing to me as an above normal month. The indices have up to this point been vague at best on that idea. Mostly what I'm seeing in the modeling is warmth getting pushed back out in time. Meanwhile ... with flat ongoing index signaling, that's usually a red flag for their being full of shit with warm(cool) changes when this is the larger circumstance. The operational runs have a kind of quasi elasticity in their behavior. The moment they're physics spontaneously engender a faux pattern relaxation, their processing goes on to bouncing the other way. But, then the extended becomes the mid range ...and reality corrects that. This song and dance happens on both sides, cool vs warm pattern foots. We see this in bad winter performance times, too, where the big pattern change is always just beyond D10. Then we finally get a snow threat in March after we've been conned for 49 days like taunted abuse. Lol. We more than merely symbolically ruined summer about 3 weeks ago, give or take. It's been a BN pattern in principle really since; whether that has been verifying precisely as that in the dailies doesn't deny the essence, however. Now, quite coherently a geriatric summer that doesn't have time to fuck around is suffering this correction on in time bullshit. (Also, it's Meteorological first day of autumn... which doesn't mean anything but just along the way here - ) So if you are a warm enthusiasts... good luck. Patterns do change. That could happen. But here's just one example of covert/sneaky correcting while everyone's thinking at warm up is en route. Euro, 24 hour correction ... barely noticeable, right?

Anyone alive that denies climate change in the face of more empirical objective data than can be counted in a single lifetime at this point… lacks critical thinking and in fact, their sense of awareness is ping-ponging between complete lack of moral intelligence and complete lack of reasoning intelligence, period

Sick maple color season's begun around northern Middlesex CO

I figured someone up there must have ... 46 here.

Just a reminder for the general audience: The correct interpretation of this chart above is 'there's a 60 to 70% chance for warmer than normal' Note, +.01 is warmer than normal. Frankly, if I'm asked ( which I am not ... understood ha ), after looking over the charts and indices therefrom I'm not seeing anything wholly convincing for warmth to be honest. Can it change? Obviously yes. We have to give a lot of latitude to the indicators and modeling trends at this time of year. As is typically the case, the flow behavior has become nebular in structure; it's not really easy to assess where the major forcing structures will be located in space and time, as model to model variation places that stuff inconsistently. In fact, that uncertainty is even more so than normal from what I am seeing. There's polar jet that keeps trying to orient into a winter like pattern up across Canada, replete with repeating model runs drilling diving jet through Ontario and killing any hope for warmth here through ...D10 or 11... Meanwhile, there's this weaker meandering S jet with nondescript wave signature rippling across 35 N... These two jet regions are challenged to find one another and sync up, as they should be at this time of year... It's basically a couple of hoses flopping around in the guidance. Once every 7 or 8 model cycles, they phase - like the 00z Euro with an autumn trough through the Lakes at 252 hours. Or the previous 18z GFS from yesterday, having a WAR like end of run... Neither of these are likely sustainable indicators though. They'll either disappear or morph so much the implications change. It looks likes like the first 10 days to two weeks of the month will be crushingly uneventful with exceptionally loud silence. haha

Models seem to create their own triggers sometimes… Probably just emergence of chaos in the model as it processes out in time. If the layout is numerically/physically unstable as an initial condition and then the model plunks down one of its little invented triggers in the midst of it we’re going to get these weird solutions like that faux “Bob“ thing … Along with a lot of posts about why it’s possible ha ha ha

The GFS solution is a warm core

In this rough eval you can kind of make that out ... The axis represent clusters of ~ nadirs, and then using the interactive date finder in the product, does suggest that over the last 20 years the mins ice dates have been later into September. It's not a huge signal in and of itself, but it's of greater importance, if not made more significant, by the ice is has also been losing mass over that span of years. I'm sure it would not be too difficult to just get the actual sq*km min numerical numbers and dates, and graph that aspect - but just eyeballin' above.

Oh, ha... well, in that case - any given location could get lucky with a training axis. This does look a bit like it could be a slow evolving scenario so convection might orient into favored bands, along which there can be decent totals. In between? not so much.

Interesting shallowing of the ice loss ...relative to recency that is. Good sign for winter enthusiasts? - well, at least analytically for me I've come to find in the past that the rates of d(ice) and d(land-snow) in autumns appeared to be positively correlated to N/A mid latitude winters during ensuing cold season. We've still got about 2 weeks to go before climo bottoms out and we enter autumn so we'll see if this year can be another test for that.

It doesn't look like a total wash out. Some towns may end up slipping through gaps in a couple line of showers/thunder, while other's get a couple doses. But not like raining all the time. I guess play it by ear

Yeah, I dunno. Personally? I wasn’t attempting to qualify it one way or other - the advent of it is sort of a symbolic rite of passage. Perhaps even right on schedule. Some suggestion in the deep range that it will at least turn warmer again .. how much so unknown

The models have had a hard on for pinching off a mid level low over Brian for some reason … heh. … whatever he did to incur this wrath aside it appears to be legit. It’s only 4 days away so -

Saturday looks like an early autumn vibe in the air... kind of like the shot before the shot across the bow air mass. 69 to 71 highs? Not these faux suggestions merely because we're sensing the daylight slipping and it happens to not be as hot … when it's still climate okay and sun strength to actually be hot ... lol. But don't tell that to the ACATT crew, huh. Anyway, it looks like hydrostats slip beneath 560 for the first time in months. That's an important metric/distinction for me. Also, with cool pool mid level wobbling over CNE, we're probably going to pancake and shade the sun. So less shoulder offset.

Nah ..I've witnessed plenty of warm and humid stretches through mid Septembers. That bears out in climate, too. We're just in a low amplitude +PNA incoming, one that in my opinion is uncertain as to it's real impact on our temps and DPs. There's a chance we'll end up in a EC paralleling flow regime. Until this arriving trough axis actually gets east of our longitude, "cold" air will attenuate if wait altogether in actually getting E. The ensemble means and operational runs are lowering heights but keeping the trough west of us until late. If add to that to a subtle tendency to also de-amplify troughs when moving their handling through the mid range, it's not hard to see that turning into a Bahama Blue or quasi variant of one as a compromise. If the PNA then resonates and a secondary push takes place ( D way out there...), yeah then it's playing with a gun. There's frost alerts in the Arrow Head of MN... while there is triple digit heat headlines in the PAC NW. That concurrency is an anomaly in an of itself.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-sea-ice-ocean-currents-antarctica.html

18z NAM profile is near 90 Saturday BOS SW burbs/metrowest and other usuals.

this is really interesting actually https://phys.org/news/2025-08-temperatures-linked-declining-moods-world.html