Typhoon Tip

I'm pretty sure we got gypped by smoke both yesterday and today relative to potential.

hmm every 2 days the GFS has an over top +PP doing the Ontario-Quebec transit though. Those are all BD cautions with that model. Euro not so much. So yeah, it's otherwise dog-days of summer tendency in the model runs lately, sure. There's also a tropical signal based on climatology with pattern analog stuff. The models don't key in on climate, more so their physical detection is describing how/why the climate analog stuff evolved the way it had. Either means of prognostic suggest something coming along ... But Scott's right about the EPS and frankly I'm not seeing very climo friendly look overall for any such system to be an issue here. You want a -D(nao) on the western limb, with some sort of establishing S/N steering all the way up.

Getting the distinct impression that this current high level cloud passage has cleaner air immediately behind it when looping the visibles

With that circulation medium? that is so stupid what that model tried to do no chance. although not stupid because no model has any responsibility to correctness at that range

LOL ... yeah, it's all Steve's fault the planet Earth has accelerated CC to the point where unmitigated natural disasters befall a burgeoning population that's been 1,000 years in making an 8 billion population of environmental destroyers ... f*n boomer! sorry that exchange was funny

Fantasy time ... but how about the cat 5 in the lower Bahamas at the end of that.

It seems like I've read a few papers related to climate change enhancing the northern latitude forest growth around the hemisphere. Entering a CC-related dry bias extending several seasons ... --> wild fire frequency increases. Whom and/or what is lighting the proverbial match? If those are relatively constant while fuels increase... more fires. Climate change effects interior continental geography, differently, in time. For example, increased wet/growing seasons initially causing surplus carbon stows above land. Then, as climate changes furthers along creating extremes of drying vs wetting that can extend longer than single seasons and boom. Not very difficult to see where that's going... Suspiciously, this seems 'probably' to be a situation where the fuels were improving over time, while the triggers remain relatively constant. Pure speculation, but given to the known CC relationship with creating extended periods of unusual mid continental drying, there's some intuitive basis to the idea of 'creating firestorm' proneness.

yeah I read of that correlation during the spring 2024 when the plumes came south. just sayn'

sun intensity's recovering some this last hour.. I've noticed that in the past about smoke; it seems to disperse some mass ( but not all ) as the daylight hours progresses.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-plastic-pollution-grave-health-threat.html

mm...starting to smack like the high temperatures today will take a hit because of smoke.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-broken-japan.html

Fwiw-

yeah...that's the 5th time I've called that Maine. I know it's NH ...anyway, it was incredible there.

Yesterday was fantastic at Jennes Beach in Maine. The near shore water popped to (est) 69 as the tide was coming back in, right at around 2-4pm, and with 76 air and pure sun. Perfect.

Ha... I did not - Well in that case ... the model product is a piece of shit because there's no way the whole AO domain does that. nope -

well .. i was also intending a good bit of that for snarky sarcasm But I do think like all snarky sarcasm ...there's an "air" of truism in there

I don't ... I'm suspicious that it all collapses and we get shoulder season early blocking by early October, resulting in another early faux winter across mid latitudes, through ~ early Dec... (white Thanks Giggidy?) Then, the real winter arrives as another wind scarped S/W shear show that shits on everyone's winter forecasts with unrelenting windy and mild steady state boredom. Maybe a threat or two, sure... But outside of those, predominately AN months with a lot of jet speed shear with attenuating model outlooks in the nearer terms. It all relaxes in March when a late SSW is just in time to fuck up early next summer with BD indignity days...

no...it's the fact that it covers such a small geographical region. Most of that chart is early autumn. Barely servicing that warm side of the debate, would be a fairer impression of that chart. But again ... I don't trust that GFS solution anyway. Just sayn'

Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two.

It's not just the trough domain ...notice the heights in the west also inching polarward. Basically it's a problem plaguing the models, one that's gotten more obvious in the last 10 years, not going the other way with supposed upgrades. They have to add heights everywhere when moving from ext --> mids --> short term. I come up with sci fi ideas. I can't help myself ... Like, they are trying to wholesale remove global warming from the ambience. Or it's a conspiracy to do so because MAGAt's have a mole in the modeling R&D offices at NCEP... heh 'Course, that myth gets immediately debunked when considering the zagnut scaled intellect of the MAGAtsphere: it could never produce an NCEP modeler, huh

Not in the conversation but ... when was the last time the 30-year climate intervals were re-applied? It could be a cooler AO domain relative to a "new" data set/means therefrom. Just a plausibility

GGEM's setting up a significant positive anomaly in the geopotential medium beyond D6 now too

this type of pattern appears to be a favored return state up to this point, this summer... This is the 12z ICON, which by no means is being used here as a formal position matters ... But, I don't think this summer's going for an early release so long as this keep manifesting in the runs. We'll see what the 12z's do here in a bit, but at least in so far as next week is concerned, some recent runs of both the ECM and GFS have periodically demoed something similar.

yeah no unfortunately ... the court of public opinion in this particular ( or any most likely ..) social mediasphere will predictably ignore principle achievement while formulating their impression of reality. Obviously, in order to maintain their personal biases in these sort of debates - tediously too. Like over decimals when the principle of this, seems to completely escape their awareness. but good luck