Typhoon Tip

Looping that ... the mid and high levels are actually not the problem. There's terrain-enhanced low shit that's sort of stationary-ish, while the weak flow going down slope has sun over the valleys... You can get a sense of where the ridge line vs lower els are aligned. That region over NE Mass is the back edge of the mid/ua lid

I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc... It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloudy when you check. heh. Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now. we'll see...

I actually miss-interpreted the writing of that article when I first saw it. I thought it was telling me that the Himalayan snow deficits have been below normal for the last 23 years. It was in fact written that the region suffers "a 23-year low" which means... in the past 23 years, this is the lowest year totals. Those two have different meanings, that latter being what was actually discussed. The current deficit is running 3-years consecutively, however, suggesting perhaps a "snow drought" in a local time series. It's still useful to bring it up because the population, relying on the regional resources as it must, has been allowed to burgeon to billions. That was/is still a human choice. And so yet again anthropomorphic interference takes center stage. Population has burgeoned so fast that it cannot possibly have been tested against any (very likely) longer term variation in that regional climate system, variations that introduce periods no longer capable of supporting it. Similar problem exists over here in American with California (imho). These regions of the world may not intrinsically be able to to sustain populations of "the most successfully greedy species biology has ever created" on this world. Lol. Population outpacing the normal environment's ability to sustain it - where has that ever been evidenced as a problem? Which gets further complicated in the latter sense because what is normal? Normalcy itself is in a state of change. Anyway, the correlation to CC is less intuitively clear. Just an a-priori awareness of Earth, 3-year biases of either dry deficit, vs moist surpluses, can easily fit into a "noise" expectation - be explained by fractal behavior. The other aspect to consider is the specific climate "behavior" of that region. Evaluating the standard deviation would be useful in revealing just how unusual the 3-year snow deficit really is there.

It’s less likely Saturday will produce like that Late spring/early summer temp tomorrow and Wednesday on this NAM run

Oh yeah... and https://phys.org/news/2025-04-himalayan-year-threatening-billion-people.html

Those are wave clouds/undulatus ... they are typical along 40 N in the spring and early summer due to warm air riding over an antecedent cooler/denser air mass. It's going to 75 tomorrow in a warm sector diffusing into a dying cold frontal wash ... then WNW d-slope compression adds... hell, it may even be a warm bust 80.

I hopes so ... need the rain. Sunday looks really nice. It has to rain sometimes - tough shit, it's on the Saturday. But y'all just had an 11 on scale of 1-10 so deal.

I've been writing about this very Climate Change - related subject for a number of years. The biggest hurdle in moving society toward an existential urgency is that it lacks much of any sense in personal experience. It simply doesn't appeal to the native senses in real time. Anthropologically it is shown that people, particularly in groups, will be less likely to believe a new warning or directive when they cannot see the evidence of consequence, directly. This limitation enables denial in all forms... Whether it is divisive and immoral, or just hardened skepticism, notwithstanding. In the article below, published in The Conversation , Alexander Bentley discusses the matter. https://phys.org/news/2025-04-exposure-perceptible-temperature-climate-higher.html It behooves those in the know to learn and understand the audience limitation, in order to strategize a more affecting delivery. This is all a duh intuition. I've likened it in the past to an analogy. We are a quarrelsome species, standing upon the railway to doom as the iron beneath our feet has begun to vibrate; instead of moving off the tracks, all the distracting hysteria instead argues the color shoes being warn to the engagement. One aspect that is interesting ... the idea of younger generations perhaps 'not needing' as much direct evidence exposure to be convinced. There's a suggestion here that some of the persuasion toward accepting the objective reality may come by way of these older generations dying off... This is an aspect I had not personally thought of until reading the passage in the article, 'Young people are growing up with climate change' Momentum toward macro- acceptance and eventual ... better expediency in response, may emerge just by natural mortality of the "obsticularly" limitated population.

what a day ... 65 with much less wind and the clouds are eroding back allowing more sun than anticipated. tomorrow 70s...

I'm planning on the 20% reduction of amplitude that seems to always be a necessary correction in the mid range to pull us back just over the tolerability threshold. It looks like a fropa with the vorticity smearing out N of us. there's are also some reasoning related to GFS specific biases to erode warm heights too much out in time but... it's all negotiable.

Yeah Norway.

frost here sat says overcast which will retard recovery today ..but it won't be 33 tonight. tomorrow begins a period where cloud depending, the afternoons could be more consistently making a run at 70 for 3 or so days. i noticed the 80s on saturday really triggered our green up process. we were budding before, but now all sugar and red maples are flowered well out, and even the oaks are bud swelling. it'll be interesting to compare at the end of the week.

Wind's actually slacked a bit here as we're approaching mid day... Very hot sun, and temperatures tickling 60, it's not near as bad as the gradient pinched CAA impression of the charts would have one think. At a glance that looked like 48 - guess it helps to actually look at the sounding, huh. ha. D-slope for the the win... It's every bit as amazing as yesterday imo, just at the other end of the temperature range. Yesterday made 84 here... 2 more and it would have been too much. 62 here with dying wind, about the purest air available to the planet, under searing sun... man, take this weekend as an embarrassing win of April and call it a day. Holiday weekend no less.... Let's just hope we don't pay for it on the 4th of July like 2020

yup … thunderstorms dying as they move east … punchin the clock. season wasting no time bum pounding convection enthusiast right out of the gates

84

might yet do it down here with the sudden erosion. Temp just popped 80

it's weird... sky bust, then ..temperatures busting warm relative to the sky bust - it's busting in both directions. 77

yeah ...not impressed with this at all. i was afraid of this. we'll see how it plays out. sometimes these morning contamination looks erode back as the sun works, but seeing the guidance with waves of 700, 400, 300 mb > 60% doesn't looks like a scenario that exactly over achieves relative to what it could be. but we've suffered bottom dweller saturday's back to back recently so this is panacea by comparison. no complaints.

There it is ... the big 4 0 29 to 69 ... making a bid at 72

come to think of it...are there flag advisories

I can too - this is fake warmth. The DPs are a balmy 12 F ...some 20, but between that range. Saturate this column and we'd be cat pawing

31 deg temperature rise already ... this may be the diurnal delta prize winner day. 29 was the low currently 60 at 11 am.

NAM profiles ( 12z ) would support mid 80s if no sun obstruction... There may be some issues with mid deck cloud debris looking at the typical ceiling level RHs. MET's 80 now at BDL and ASH.

That sun is a rotisserie lamp out there.