Typhoon Tip

it's fake until ORH ping's 90 heh

Mm the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month. There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U. It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks. This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data. There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly. It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve. It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side.

Should be put on the mileXmile sized headstone over humanity's grave ... along with all the other dark ironies that fucking made it happen

Looked to me like the whole blend bumped S a little bit. That may not be caused by repositioning the track of that frontal mess, per se. It could also be an artifact of that amplitude flattening - a problem we've discussed ad nauseam in the past, where the models sometimes have trouble maintaining mid/ext outlook amplitude when relaying into short ranges. Hard to tell precisely, as this scenario with rain/amts on Thur/Fri looks pretty sensitive to very subtle physical perturbation, anyway, so - I just see the 00z UKMET type solution as not impossible at least in principle. It may be overdoing that suppression some sure.

you know... nother aspect occurs to me. if that Friday boundary ends up much farther N it's liable to pop up to an ALB - D.E.M. synoptic ordeal. that changes the landscape of things ... It'd introduce a bit of a Bahama Blue circulation mode

Not in this case. sorry - I'm not talking about some kind of fascist opinion suppressing here. Everyone has the right to think, feel, believe whatever they want. The presumption that everyone is entitled to an opinion as actually being heard? That is entirely false. Most particularly when the post the failure having been iteratively and ad nauseam explained! Being heard, much more so, seriously considered - and being worthy of time expense - is constrained by objective reality and facts - merely because there are those that don't like, or don't understand the weight of the latter ...there is no intrinsic logic or right therein to have their opinions matter. Brian Cox, renowned physicist/philosopher roundly put it eloquently: " The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstratively nonsense. " he's damned right!

hm looks like a potential prelude. Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known

I'm a little suspicious the GFS is over mixing ... It's got 2-m DPs under 60 F N of the Pike around 21z here shortly, where it is presently 67 to 71. It's an interesting test for tomorrow - it's possible that mixing DPs out may be goosing the kinetic temps

it's baaaaaaaack

I've seen the ICON do this at more times than I care to remember and it's seldom correct. The best way I can describe a cause - though it's purely speculation ... - is that it's really like that model confuses the Labrador current as an atmospheric phenomenon, such that when given any reason to turn the flow NE/E like most guidance are doing on Friday, it ends up with that plume of subsurface SSTs as an atmospheric tsunamis. Partially sarcasm there of course... it's more likely that it's got a bias in proficiency and speed to thermodynamically fix/couple the lower levels to the water

Lol ...well, there's that too. Different subject. I'm just sick of hearing the name "Bastard"i at all at this point after so many years of it and his unrelentingly irresponsible vomit. He's another candidate for a general all-purpose set to ignore by society et al - even tho such states of existence are unlikely. It's a numbers game. With 8.5 billion human being targets for his shit, there's going to be a sufficiently large number embedded in there that likes the taste of it no matter what -

Not uncommon for DPs to mix down as the sun goes up. It all depends on how deep the moisture ( WV density ) is in the column. At first, if there is an intervening dry region in the sounding in the 900 mb level ( about mid way up the mixing depth for the day/BL), this air will 'turn over' with the initial convection cycling, mix in, and lower the surface. But if this layer is not present, there'll be less of that, too. It all depends. There's no question we are in a deep warm sector sounding, regardless.

He's likely a sell-out mole for big oil, planted in the general population as a dissent soil nutrient to improve the seeds of CC denial's growth. I would be shocked if he wasn't getting actual monies in some way or another to be so ludicrously absurd with this patented abuse of using weather sciences 'against' the general public's ability to learn and comprehend what is actually going on... I'm quite dubious there; he's not that uneducated and/or plain dumb to think half the shit he says is actually veracious. He's just not. The most logical truth is that he's gas-lighing for big fossil fuel interests.

No,... exactly the opposite. Non-Markovian quantum dynamics, is all but directly coherent in the atmosphere In simple terms, system's dynamic state is stored in a kind of quantum memory. This creates a tendency (favorable) for the system to return to that previous dynamic when stimulus is reapplied. Even when the system appears to thermodynamically or mechanically be in a state of rest, having lost any presentation, it will pop back faster then if the stimulus were first time introduced. As an aside, this is makes intuitive sense really when you think of Newtonian dynamics, particularly the first law of inertia. An object will remain at rest, or move in a straight line at a constant speed, unless acted upon by an external force. There's something eerily Non-Markovian about that. The higher launch pad is actually still representing a state of previous thermodynamics as lurking, anyway - kind of betraying the Non-MD aspect. But elevated WV content will make elevated temperatures at night whether the system has Non-MD lurking or not. Or, the increased WV will have an Non-MD component of it's own. Now that's interesting - quantize the Non-MD contributions. fascinating. All of which then super-impose/ constructively interferes when stimulus ( like the sun) reintroduces an excuse to react. Think of it this way. In the spring, late Mar thru mid May, we can get these higher heat ejection from the W, with low DP. That's more Non-MD related. The atmosphere has a quantum memory of warmth, ... almost like learning how to be hot, after the initial polar air mass had been beaten over the head with a hot spring sun for several days. Haha... So you may still shed to cold lows at night, but the top side ( day) temp rises something 35 or even as much as 50 F. Deserts do this too -

If you observe the present higher def vis loop (sat) over Missouri and Illinois you can see an impressive cool pool outflow frontal structure carving S under the heat dome/ridge. I've noticed this sort of thing in these awkward west-biased continental warm ridging scenarios in the pase; which places E of 100 W on the NVA side of the larger synoptic scale flow structure. Lotta a eye-glossing big words there... but, where I'm going is that because the former circumstance is in place, these outlfows are getting a deep layer assist in behaving that way. I think this total behavior in part is sort of like machining it's own demise as these convection wrapping S-SE undermine and help then sent latent heat release to propagate the ridge E in time. Speculative, but this formulation of heat expansions is less transfixed from resonant feed-back. It's on borrowed time. Conceptually ... all that - to me- makes the notion of turning anything S of the ambient flow ( like and MCS ...etc.) as favored in general. Seems an academically simple assertion really. Just an attempt at using real-time observations - a lost art in our field, I know... haha

Might be more of a big HIs than a big temps type of day today. I'm only mentioning because the MEX had some 97s around the area recently - altho it backed off a little overnight. The rise rates don't really fit the typicality of a 98er though ... We'll see tomorrow. Should be a higher launch after the battery gets charged pretty full. Looks like a candidate 82F low at Logan and Urban elevated crime rates type of night. heh. So we'll get that sort of non-Markovian assist tomorrow morning.

It's always a promising sign when the day dawns in thick fog while the temperature's over 70 ooph

I noticed some extra special sauced DPs spanning IN and IL today. 76-82 with Ts 90 to 92. It’s almost like the GFS is advecting that air over the terrain and DS and so we end up 98/70

MEX is going nuts with this heat wave from HFD to metro west of Boston Big Heat numbers

I compared denialism and reticence to accept the CC crisis to the boiling frog metaphor years and years ago. It’s social media so tfwiw but no shit duh https://www.instagram.com/p/DMgeuGSzP3W/?igsh=aXEwbmJicXc2NW9w

You can’t penetrate that individuals mind with logic. Them is impervious to objective reality

Is this right from the university of Maine? looks like we’re presently a tick below 2012

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-marine-oceans-longer-average.html

yeah, I expect this too - the models have over amped cold in just about every mid and ext range since about 2010

Tomorrow's likely to be a couple ticks above guidance just based on experience with that sort of synoptic layout vs machine interpolations. Front clears and DPs tank, but thickness stay above 570 S of the VT/NH border, and in the mid 560s spanning CNE. The +PP is NW of Logan prior to 18z so it's a d-slope wind trajectory in a warm atmosphere, with purer blue sky sun searing through. I think the upper 70s in the MET are more like 83s. Hugely important distinction, I know ..haha Oh, never mind...