Typhoon Tip

I'm a little suspicious the GFS is over mixing ... It's got 2-m DPs under 60 F N of the Pike around 21z here shortly, where it is presently 67 to 71. It's an interesting test for tomorrow - it's possible that mixing DPs out may be goosing the kinetic temps

it's baaaaaaaack

I've seen the ICON do this at more times than I care to remember and it's seldom correct. The best way I can describe a cause - though it's purely speculation ... - is that it's really like that model confuses the Labrador current as an atmospheric phenomenon, such that when given any reason to turn the flow NE/E like most guidance are doing on Friday, it ends up with that plume of subsurface SSTs as an atmospheric tsunamis. Partially sarcasm there of course... it's more likely that it's got a bias in proficiency and speed to thermodynamically fix/couple the lower levels to the water

Lol ...well, there's that too. Different subject. I'm just sick of hearing the name "Bastard"i at all at this point after so many years of it and his unrelentingly irresponsible vomit. He's another candidate for a general all-purpose set to ignore by society et al - even tho such states of existence are unlikely. It's a numbers game. With 8.5 billion human being targets for his shit, there's going to be a sufficiently large number embedded in there that likes the taste of it no matter what -

Not uncommon for DPs to mix down as the sun goes up. It all depends on how deep the moisture ( WV density ) is in the column. At first, if there is an intervening dry region in the sounding in the 900 mb level ( about mid way up the mixing depth for the day/BL), this air will 'turn over' with the initial convection cycling, mix in, and lower the surface. But if this layer is not present, there'll be less of that, too. It all depends. There's no question we are in a deep warm sector sounding, regardless.

He's likely a sell-out mole for big oil, planted in the general population as a dissent soil nutrient to improve the seeds of CC denial's growth. I would be shocked if he wasn't getting actual monies in some way or another to be so ludicrously absurd with this patented abuse of using weather sciences 'against' the general public's ability to learn and comprehend what is actually going on... I'm quite dubious there; he's not that uneducated and/or plain dumb to think half the shit he says is actually veracious. He's just not. The most logical truth is that he's gas-lighing for big fossil fuel interests.

No,... exactly the opposite. Non-Markovian quantum dynamics, is all but directly coherent in the atmosphere In simple terms, system's dynamic state is stored in a kind of quantum memory. This creates a tendency (favorable) for the system to return to that previous dynamic when stimulus is reapplied. Even when the system appears to thermodynamically or mechanically be in a state of rest, having lost any presentation, it will pop back faster then if the stimulus were first time introduced. As an aside, this is makes intuitive sense really when you think of Newtonian dynamics, particularly the first law of inertia. An object will remain at rest, or move in a straight line at a constant speed, unless acted upon by an external force. There's something eerily Non-Markovian about that. The higher launch pad is actually still representing a state of previous thermodynamics as lurking, anyway - kind of betraying the Non-MD aspect. But elevated WV content will make elevated temperatures at night whether the system has Non-MD lurking or not. Or, the increased WV will have an Non-MD component of it's own. Now that's interesting - quantize the Non-MD contributions. fascinating. All of which then super-impose/ constructively interferes when stimulus ( like the sun) reintroduces an excuse to react. Think of it this way. In the spring, late Mar thru mid May, we can get these higher heat ejection from the W, with low DP. That's more Non-MD related. The atmosphere has a quantum memory of warmth, ... almost like learning how to be hot, after the initial polar air mass had been beaten over the head with a hot spring sun for several days. Haha... So you may still shed to cold lows at night, but the top side ( day) temp rises something 35 or even as much as 50 F. Deserts do this too -

If you observe the present higher def vis loop (sat) over Missouri and Illinois you can see an impressive cool pool outflow frontal structure carving S under the heat dome/ridge. I've noticed this sort of thing in these awkward west-biased continental warm ridging scenarios in the pase; which places E of 100 W on the NVA side of the larger synoptic scale flow structure. Lotta a eye-glossing big words there... but, where I'm going is that because the former circumstance is in place, these outlfows are getting a deep layer assist in behaving that way. I think this total behavior in part is sort of like machining it's own demise as these convection wrapping S-SE undermine and help then sent latent heat release to propagate the ridge E in time. Speculative, but this formulation of heat expansions is less transfixed from resonant feed-back. It's on borrowed time. Conceptually ... all that - to me- makes the notion of turning anything S of the ambient flow ( like and MCS ...etc.) as favored in general. Seems an academically simple assertion really. Just an attempt at using real-time observations - a lost art in our field, I know... haha

Might be more of a big HIs than a big temps type of day today. I'm only mentioning because the MEX had some 97s around the area recently - altho it backed off a little overnight. The rise rates don't really fit the typicality of a 98er though ... We'll see tomorrow. Should be a higher launch after the battery gets charged pretty full. Looks like a candidate 82F low at Logan and Urban elevated crime rates type of night. heh. So we'll get that sort of non-Markovian assist tomorrow morning.

It's always a promising sign when the day dawns in thick fog while the temperature's over 70 ooph

I noticed some extra special sauced DPs spanning IN and IL today. 76-82 with Ts 90 to 92. It’s almost like the GFS is advecting that air over the terrain and DS and so we end up 98/70

MEX is going nuts with this heat wave from HFD to metro west of Boston Big Heat numbers

I compared denialism and reticence to accept the CC crisis to the boiling frog metaphor years and years ago. It’s social media so tfwiw but no shit duh https://www.instagram.com/p/DMgeuGSzP3W/?igsh=aXEwbmJicXc2NW9w

You can’t penetrate that individuals mind with logic. Them is impervious to objective reality

Is this right from the university of Maine? looks like we’re presently a tick below 2012

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-marine-oceans-longer-average.html

yeah, I expect this too - the models have over amped cold in just about every mid and ext range since about 2010

Tomorrow's likely to be a couple ticks above guidance just based on experience with that sort of synoptic layout vs machine interpolations. Front clears and DPs tank, but thickness stay above 570 S of the VT/NH border, and in the mid 560s spanning CNE. The +PP is NW of Logan prior to 18z so it's a d-slope wind trajectory in a warm atmosphere, with purer blue sky sun searing through. I think the upper 70s in the MET are more like 83s. Hugely important distinction, I know ..haha Oh, never mind...

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly. Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end. There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa. This thing? ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade. Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh... Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave. In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied. It's just the new order, in other words. Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration. Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

I dunno. The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way.

GEFs, GEPS and EPS means all with a three run warming trend Monday and Tuesday. GEFs in particular are sending mid upper 90s Tuesday by 18z. Wednesday is the hold out on a heat wave officially. Marginal due to front or convection... From this range, timing any summer front can be even more difficult at D5 as convection processing muddles what's happening in the physical processing of the models. Fair confidence in a pattern change - if perhaps temporarily - by mid week, though, so we're clearing the slate with a reprieve heat/dews for 2 or 3 days after Wednesday most likely. Beyond which skill pretty much does not exist. Fwiw, the GEFs signals heat return, while the Euro cluster does not. The operational GFS was the warmest model I saw for the Mon-Wed period, making low 90, upper 90s, and around 90.

The features overall lack stronger forcing behind why they are there. This creates more error, because the physics are less detectable in the grids --> therefore the processing shows increased variance. Blah blah ... no one gets what that means, but it results in having difficulty being consistent with the timing of the front. They are also confusing ( apparently ..) the front with the potential cool pooling associated with convection. This latter factor is even more incoherent and thus difficult in a weak mechanical field, because the convection triggers are in a space that is not well enough sampled. The ambient instability is there... so false triggers can and often do take over and corrupt the results. If there was a huge jet skirting by to the N, with a powerful front arrival, the models would nail down the timing, as well as distinguish what is the front and what is just outflow.

Was there the 30-year moving update and all that ?

I've sensed that bold amid the general denial ambit as it's been fairly obvious over the years, no doubt. I was not as aware of an organized "propaganda technique" (haha) as you say. I tend to ignore what is patently wrong out of box, so I'm not as privy to the general character of the on-going debate. Interestingly, I did however complain a longish while back that it was wasting time consummately re-engaging to explain and introduce CC objectively; yet the other side end-arounds that objectivity. That can only be explained by lack of learning capacity, or, an agenda. That's when it gets egregious dealing with deniers. Really fast! I've taken to ignoring outright. Everyone else should. Stop responding. Period. Let them have their cricket filled space. It would no longer be wasting anyone's time and eventually ..they stop trying - which try or not. Who cares at that point. The only problem with that is ... with 8 billion+ resource expensive human beings on this world, if even 1/100th of that total were to fail to acknowledge and abide by an eco-friendly, world-saving effort, we're all still fucked. That's called an untenable scenario. As an aside, we're already committed our future to technology to pick up the slack where hardheadedness fails, because the population being so large means the lower numbers of polluters still en masse put the system over thresholds. In short ...we'll have to innovate our way out of this mess. That's by no means license to profligate, either. It's a combined effort. But back on the tactical evasiveness, and strategic continuation of not-having-to-change-ways-of-life. It's a milquetoast manipulation tactic using some sort of politeness, and yeah it's beyond eye-rolling. It's also really a kind of gaslighting thing, too. ... The goal and design to bide the time. There's a transparency there; yet an apparent lack of self-awareness. They don't realize we know what they are up to. By engaging with them, it substantiates their effort and keeps them thinking their winning in their mind. That's why they need to be unilaterally ignored. It won't happen, of course. Just sayn' Not getting my attention though. When you're standing on the railroad tracks of certain destiny, and the iron is whirring beneath your feet, there's no time to argue the the real color of the shoes. Continuing the metaphor, it only seems one side of this discussion thinks changing shoes will stop the vibration. I bothered above because I was really describing the rate of change as the real detrimental impactor, for the broader audience. I sense an honest lack of that specific understanding in the general society - yeah... like we're actually going to frontier that in here. haha.

Man. Big heat Friday on this NAM run