Typhoon Tip

So a 2 or 3 hour burst of wet snow around the back side of the rapid ANA low deepening as it exists on Friday... mainly a car-top and middle lawn whitener. 33 ..34 F parachuting. Relative to season that's an impressive cold load into S-SE Canada soon after, which may or may not set the stage for a more interesting amplitude circa 25th. Post equinox but ... in 2004 ( maybe it was 2005) I parked my car 1:20 pm in front of single story mall plaza on an errand, and snow was blowing off the flat roof at that time of day, somewhere during the first week of April. It's hard to blow snow at apex solar after April 1, but there I was ... eating spring shit. To mention 1982, 1984, 1987, 1997...etc etc. It's lower confidence for a specific event within, but the period between the 22nd and 30the is set up for a colder complexion at mid and N latitudes of the continent given the unanimously agreed upon teleconnector correlations for the time period - it's been consistent in that regards as well. Still ... am a little leery due to a history of attenuating cold scenarios in models despite leading tele's and extended looks once getting into middle terms. Less has proven the money making gamble. In the nearer terms ... enjoy tomorrow, which will likely go above machine numbers by a little given 850's of +4 or 5C still and the backside air mass being more Pac origin and coming d-slope under full-ish sun. Wed/Thurs look like days that could have been milder, but will probably see a pretty strong west penetrating cold llv flow by mid day, both days, given that high is retreating E and not S of the region. So western NE will be warmer on those two days than eastern zones in that synoptic layout. Logan is 52 and Springfield MA is 67 and ALB is 72 spit ball numbers

The passenger seat with that Mac-10 semi auto laying purposely right next to a snow total chart that clearly defines a screw wedge right over NYC, makes the scene -

I have this weird fetish ( or perhaps guilty pleasure) where whenever I see a blurry photo like this of C and B rated up-and-coming "artists" from that 1970s opportunistic poppy disco era, I smirk. I then find it so entertaining to investigate that random guy/girl's life and how it reads it must of been like some 15 or 20 years later on... Some of them you may be surprised that it parlayed. "Oh, that's so-and-so.. huh. That's where they came from." But for most of them, mmm. If their bio's don't cover nicely for them with the euphemism, "retired to a quiet life," there's can be such inhaling-hiss cringe-worth stories at times. heh

yup the future is completely free of any cold anxiety ... all's well

agreed in principle. but this year's tendency to find a way to make N/A continental mid latitudes pretty much own all the cold anomalies in the hemisphere ..save for minoring in other locations, seems to still haunt the models - even absent now of the -EPO plagues, they're persisting in leaking enough cold into the Canadian shield to bleed in. This aspect of the EPS is not a cold shot though? sounds like that's what your thinking - I may not have that right. But it's more of a pattern driven thing with the current EPS mean. Hopefully it just breaks down... but the GEFs is really indicating -850 anomalies over the border and an active stormy +PNA hybrid canvas, too. so ... it just seems whatever bug up her ass it is, Gaia just wants to fuck with us while enabling deniers LOL Edit, the 2-meter temperatures ... not 850 abv

the other way to look at that vicious cycle is that humanity has no f'n clue how it's actions will ultimately effect the global system. oh we have an idea... but the details are unknown, and that is where the bombs detonate. like ... taking out sulfer dioxide making co2 heat absorption more efficient ... triggering a global thermal burst. what the hell else has no prediction that's yet to be discovered - weee the greatest natural disaster ever to befall this planet's history may in fact turn out to be the arrival of human innovation

EPS BNs the temps at the end of next week and then locks it thru 360 hours.

I'm actually not ... I mean, yar it's there but the background is too progressive for me to think anything severing in the mid/u/a would have much hope of sticking around. In fact, it's probably moving right along as it is severing - so it's only really 'quasi' closing off in that sense. If we wanna see a cut-off butt fucker pattern ... May 2005, April .. pretty much every April had at least one from 1985 to 1988 ..etc, would be better paradigms. The trough next week passing west to east probably prevents that.

54, dead calm ultra pure air, under unadulterate blue sky and intense equinoxian sun. about a perfect 10 on the "nape scale"

Reminds me of the old west Atl cut off spring gyres of lore... Those were common in the 1980s ... sometimes in the 1990s. I haven't seen as many of them in the 2000s to present, though I have seen them modeled at times ...failing to verify. Probably owning the faster hemisphere. Anyway, they used to be a more common 'fixture' in April's actually. I've seen cirrus backing in from a cut-off retrograding gyre... 60 F with cirrus arriving from the east, and the next day is steady cat paws at 38 to the CT River valley east, yet it's still sunny at ALB. Many a-spring in the 1980s with ruined weeks because once that set up ..it just whirled endlessly.

Laughter aside ... I've noticed that actually ( bold ) See ... ( not lecturing at you just a brief op -ed here ) I wrote this, this morning, in the climate forum: "People don't believe climate change for one of two reasons. 1 Lower ethical-intelligence (fuzzy big arena. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, tho) 2 Less capable of visualizing cause-and-effect and consequence, without the aid of direct observation in real time. Part of the observation needs to include inconvenience, for a lot of people, at personal level or it's less likely to be real in their minds. Not being able to directly observe CC in the momentary perception, enables denial. This is academic really ... but, it is the failure of ambit of CC science and really P.R. ...to reach an audience ( pretty much everyone else) that is too limited by these constraints, and has been all along. " Those of suspect ethical 'compos mentus', i.e., #1 avbove... would probably do what you just said. They would pass right around any kind of omission stage of acceptance, and right into don't give a shit - I have been thinking that exactly like that. "Is it possible they're throwing caution to the wind over immediate gain of coup de etat" ( okay, some humor..) Yeah, this "kakistrocracy" is demonstrating that they really are all but incapable of cognitive dissonance...

I think part of the max stasis isn't really something that is necessarily related to CO2 - but a partial constraint, sure... By the time we get to 40N, it's harder to get enough insolation in a single diurnal cycle, capable of pushing the maxes through an evaporation exposing air mass. Evaporation is a heat sink in the mornings. The end result, the maxes, max lower than say ...Iowa, at the same latitude. They have DP times out there, but they also have other environmental feedbacks that offset. For example, they are likelier to multi day a heat episode, because the base-line flow structure of the summer continent has a mean WNW trajectory here ... prone to more frequent house cleaner fronts. That sets them up with a better "thermal battery" with higher and higher successive morning "launch temperatures" ...etc... There's some complex and subtle feed backs that get them their 105's more frequently using the same sun. We seem to get heat entries and thoroughfares like, 87 --> 94 --> 101 --> BD or some shallow non-descript possibly not even charted by WPC front ... and it's game over. something like this... meanwhile, the CO2 + WV thermodynamic does support elevating nocturnal temperatures more readily either way comparing both regions. SO yeah...we're getting sultrier nights in summer with seemingly capped big heat highs.

Well. ... if there's any question here, "...urging reevaluation of ice melt drivers and their implications for sea level projections..." Mr Gregorian might wanna start with the fundamental physics that water changes phase from solid to liquid when exposed to temperatures passing from below, to above, 32 F. Losing ice on the ice sheet requires that thermodynamic physics. Thus, not sure how his conclusion here, "The findings suggest factors beyond surface temperature, such as ocean currents or ice dynamics, may drive observed ice sheet changes...." logically follow from that constraining aspect above. People don't believe climate change for one of two reasons. Lower ethical-intelligence (fuzzy big arena. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, tho) Less capable of visualizing cause-and-effect and consequence, without the aid of direct observation in real time. Part of the observation needs to include inconvenience, for a lot of people, at personal level or it's less likely to be real in their minds. Not being able to directly observe CC in the momentary perception, enables denial. This is academic really ... but, it is the failure of ambit of CC science and really P.R. ...to reach an audience ( pretty much everyone else) that is too limited by these constraints, and has been all along. Anyway, if the Ice sheet were to visibly slide off the land mass into the surrounding ocean, all at once ...triggering off a Michael Bay sudden global sea level rise of multiples of feet one doomed day, they would be less inclined to construct the attempts at skepticism. But, it's calving off the edges at rate that increases in terms of decades, and/or increasing flow rates of melt water out the ice sheet, also at decadal times... and cannot be seen right now.

Gross! https://phys.org/news/2025-03-greenland-inuit-health-chemicals-diet.html

I'm curious about tomorrow in this regard when comparing the interpolative products, the 2-meter graphics, vs the MOS products. The 00z and 06z NAM has <50% RH at all typical ceiling sigma levels: 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, and 200 mb ... all the way up. With neutral and even tendencies for DVM regional motion. 850 mb temperatures are +10C. Sfc winds are also light and S ...veering slightly more SW. This implies mostly sunny, and at least for the interior away from the S. and E shore regions, full heating at Equinox insolation. Yet, the 2-meter graphical layout has 43 F ave throughout the entire region at 18 to 21Z in the afternoon. Should be 63 minimum. MET (machine MOS) is 61 at KBDL, but 65 KFIT and KASH ...so the interpolative algorithms are wondering what the 2-meter graphics are smoking. Much more reasonable. I took a look at the globals and they are a solid 13 F warmer .. mid upper 50s in the general 2-meter. They also carry similar profiles as described above, so they appear to be cool bias even though they are much warmer. I am not aware of any Euro MOS ... but the MAV/MEX are low 60s - too cool but still better. I guess my beef is why these 2-meter graphics are so bad. In the summer, they try at times send 108 F to Detroit and Hartford latitudes for a realistic/objective synoptic layout that's are likelier 94. Then in the spring, they are the other way and quite obviously too cold.

actually … no innovation improves survivability thru technological advantages —> atrophy … failure of Darwinism —> law of lessening returns —> return to primitive state. grossly simplified of course

huh I was just discussing this over in SNE's March thread. It's the rate of change that is the killer. Part of that abstraction is that if the rate of change in the climate, exceeds species' adaptation rates ... one of two things happen: a, extinction b, diaspora into an alien ecology, which is usually not good for the new ecology ... because it in itself does not posses the capacity to adapt to the change of having hordes of arriving opportunistic climate refugees. And I mean "clime refugees" not just human beings but all migrations up and down the biological kingdom. Eventually enough food pyramids collapse and then, even the superior adaptation of human kind can't keep up. In fact, that is already happened... The Serbian climate refugees of the early 2000s. If enough of this happens... then you get into breaching geopolitical boundaries, leading destabilization. Wars have begun that way... and it becomes a domino scenario kicking off. Civility goes first ... organization is a construct of convenience and begins after dust settles; reconstruct after the shit stops hitting the fan. That's on the other side of the CC induce firewall - metaphorically speaking. What lies out there... when the ability for "greener pastures" may take a 1,000 years to recover

If the +PNA fails to materialize between the 20th and 25th I'd be happier with that outlook. It's going to be a bit dicey through the week if it does, however. Like I was saying earlier, that is a window for some sort or the other in colder returns. Not 100% sold ... However, I am also not making it up about the +PNA. The correlation doesn't take a backseat because it's March and moods and emotive modes have switched gears - it is what it is.

Not at all ... Or shouldn't be. Unfortunately, in this increasingly intolerant douchy civility that morphed culture over the last 30 years ( I blame the Internet/socio-technological negative feed-back on stability but that's a vast digression that results in a 784 page dissertation - ), you'd be hard pressed to find someone that thinks chalk isn't taboo But the problem is way, waaaay outside the bounds of just preferences ( I figure you know that ..just sayn'). Like I was just mentioning to Roosta, tongue-in-cheek ( but is unfortunately true - ), the problem with CC is the rate of the change. It's been exceeding species adaptation rates. When that happens, one of two things happens: either they go extinct, or ... diaspora to an alien ecology where they cause all kinds of havoc to the indigenous ... and end up causing 2ndary or tertiary synergistic negative feedbacks because the new ecology cannot adapt in itself to the arriving opportunists... There's really no end to that rabbit hole of complexities.

That's an interesting one ... 1stly, agreed with storm need ... a dopamine inject into the 'crowd dynamic' would do wonders for people to at least become amenable to listening, maybe even considering. I mean, ever try to talk sense into an inconsolably irate teenage girl that just broke up with her boyfriend ? This storm depravation thing is 10 X's worse because you're dealing with something creepy similar to a heroin addicts withdraw syndrome. 2ndly... the problem in why-for there's increasing arguments with CC is that one side is getting triggered by a sense that holy shit, there's a real existential threat here ... Whether or not that culminates in extinctions ... particularly of us, the current leadership of this very powerfully influential sovereignty that we take for granted is fucking making that happen.

We might be at risk for some sort organized storminess out there. Maybe even a high height late blue snow. I think Scott might of mentioned something a while ago? but the +PNA seems to be gaining some momentum. These subtleties for increasing amplitude between the 20th and 25th fit that.

some may find these projections and observations interesting ... CPC • Should the MJO manage to emerge over the West Pacific during Week 3, low-level westerly wind anomalies over a warmer than normal West Pacific Warm Pool could result in a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that would further erode the La Niña

They'll take those arguments to their graves ... metaphorically gasping at their last breath for enough to utter a last sentence about why it's not CC while they are dying from a cocktail of direct and indirect causalities.

The problem is that more that half the population does not understand the complexities and non-linear synergies that happen BECAUSE of CC.