Typhoon Tip

DPs are regionally between 0 and 9 F out ahead of a flat wave QPF anomaly, with model run to run in +delta surface pressure N of said wave. It's going to be fun watching this thing overcome that cold profile/implication

you aren't worthy hahaha

not talking about this thing tomorrow. it's that E fetch pile-up misting antic it carries on with. i simply have to procure a second residence to flee to at this time of year. i would have been long gone and not coming back until some higher confidence forecast in May.

man... that Euro run last night was a top shelf shit show New England spring special - just vomit wow

I get it... I'm being snarky on purpose lol

I doubt it... it's more likely that any reputed source that tends to be right ... isn't really wanted, because it too often gets in the way of whatever the daily meme or narrative is - usually a departure form objective reality/rational insight.

yet y'all have time to be engaged in this "pass time" as far as the statistics gather, >50% of waken hours.

This isn't hanging around long enough for that

I like the RGEM for this thing... went over why yesterday but no one reads what doesn't fit on a tweet any more

Yeah, I was looking at that but it does it on a northwest wind. I’m a little suspect of that. Synoptic scale snows upwards of a foot doesnt typically happen on a northwest wind, and this isn’t that kind of backward tilted deep cyclone. Looks a little dubiously like typical NAM ANA bullshit

I'm on the fence with this... up through about Feb 20 give or take, it's an easy assumption this is busting too warm in the BL, in the guidance across the board, given to what is advecting into the region out ahead of arrival. I don't know about March 20th tho. In the end I'm inclined to think guidance isn't fully resolving the BL when it is this cold. The low riding up the front passes SE of ORH - an ageostrophic trigger and the 925 mb layer typically gets under-assessed in these synoptic scenarios. And I'm really more interested in this air mass' thermodynamic properties. DPs are 9 to 17 throughout the area and there is no real modification means between now and Saturday. It's probably more about whether we end up with IP or icing in that transition region, as well as how long it lasts.

Mmm Steve's right. Adding to that ... the EPO drum began to beat in the telecon projections for the 15th - 25th since really the 'coherence range' first came over the temporal horizon ...circa late February. At that time, the outer edge of extended range tipped the index into a dive entering week 3. It never backed off ... In fact, the projections kept lowering the SD nadir further, and also extended the length, all the while people were bickering about how much this year is comparable to 2012 ( why doing so in the first place struck me as just needing something to argue about as a recreational activity.. ultimately, meaningless). I realize the antecedent winter has driven folks probably to being jaded beyond the capacity for objective consideration... but too bad. Considering there have been milk shake blizzards in the first weeks of April - Anyway, enjoy abeyance of spring.

the thermodynamic properties of this air mass are talcum powder tundra snows tho. how are we moderating this very cold thermodynamic aspect prior to the arrival of any mid level WAA fist? that's likely what the RGEM is seeing here. the NAM has a routine NW bias ... particularly outside 36 hours - plus, it's the NAM. fwiw, the ICON has been RGEM like for several runs now the other global models have been suspect as the Euro early on in this thing had zip...while the GFS was going gonzo. then ...the GFS backs off (some) and the Euro is presently huge. the continuity isn't very good in the general synoptic scope. that said, even the GFS seems ( this 12z) to respect the bl resistance with 6 hr belt of IP down to the MA/NH border, when at the same time it's probably no resolving below 950 mb very well so ... i think this has a shot at being a surprise cold profiled relative to one's latitude.

If this were all last month X 20 years ago ... near warning ice would likely set up from Orange Mass to Concord NH

I know we've been over this before ... but it's idiosyncratic and dated conversation, neither of which lends well to the general reader. We have been having trouble phasing. That's the short version. Longer, it has been a recurrent problem in winters going back some 8 years. This (obviously) was not true all the times, but the reason (imho) why makes sense that some better phasing performing months have been like March 2018. Hint, the flow slows... phasing has more success. - too much velocity in the hemispheric medium. Phasing requires a narrow velocity ratio between N-S motion, vs the W-E ... Particularly, ( I'm just speaking to the generic reader here - ) when the W-E is fast, the S/W embedded bi-pass, or may partially succeed... but the true subsume/captures become physically challenged. From orbit this just looks, in general, like the N/stream is just nuance interfering like you say.

Climo or not it's brutal ... 25 with white noise tree leaner gusts? ooh baby. oil us up. The perfect way to herald in the post equinox era.

Yeah, I wrote a longer op at above, in which I spoke of synergism in total manifold. A cocktail of non-competing, constructively interfering forces is a plausibility that I definitely endorse.

Yeah, something like this sure. Last year was a clinic on how the systems are multifactor guided

It depends what is meant by "related" in the bold. If by that it coincided - temporal - than sure. However, global temperature response should not occur in the same temporal frame - the atmosphere has a noted lag wrt to warm ENSO phase. Last March, the air and sea well outside the ENSO district ...everywhere, bombed temp apace and faster than the onset; that does not fit either statistics, nor baser understanding of geophysical "relationship" between air and sea - Think of it this way, the El Nino has to couple to the atmosphere first - it was not coupled when the heat flash took place. In fact, the flash took place when technically the La Nina was still on the charts ...in process of attenuation, but still observed. The El Nino was in fact manifesting underneath and I would also proffer the reason the super Nino failed is probably because these outer modes were in some variant of destructive interference.

It's weird ... NAM's 500 mb thicknesses are < 515 over Logan, and < 510 over BTV ... that's pretty impressively cold. I don't think it was that cold in that particular metric at any time during this last winter

Bowling season has arrived!

19 years ago ( jesus christ ) I worked at WSI for a coffee break. While there, I had access to the Euro's entire suite. I recall the operational version actually had panels that went all way out to 360 hours like the GFS. It always had a big bomb beyond D10 - or seemed to... I'm inclined to suspect this AI version is just giving us what the regular version always has in that time range -

It's become abundantly clear that the Euro AIF model's real purpose/intent by that organization is to advertise ... because since it was foisted as free - no less - it's consummately serving a Burger King commercial of a bun sandwich in that time range. Speaking of which ... when are the models actually going to progress seasonal change? It's another hang up of mine. Every year at this time, the models try to keep Februaries rollin into May.

I mean it's like above normal or below normal ...neither matters and the engagement/conjecture over it all could not be any more futile when considering at this time of year, they are both a creepy scene in Shawshank Redemption with this New England prison we call spring - unless the above normal is like +38 F or something. ha

Nah... not to sound dismissive (ha) really but that doesn't explain why both air and sea from pole to pole unilaterally increased prior to the onset of the warm ENSO phase.