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Typhoon Tip

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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. Yeah ..I was going to mention the MJO in that diatribe I just leveled but ... the list-o-doubts was growing. I'm not huge fan of MJO inclusion though. We've seen its 'correlative coherence' too blurred in the past. Sometimes it's passing through some phase spaces with strength and panache and the hemisphere over eastern Pac and N/A continent doesn't seem to even be aware it was there. Like I've said a dozen times before ... the MJO is either a constructive or destructive modifier - it doesn't "drive" the patterns. That said, with failing cold/stormy patterns + March + CC ...all being factor-able considerations, a whopper MJO progression between phase 3.5 to 6.5 kinda maybe should be constructively asserting a warm result. Tough call... ensembles are like 30 members deep in weight so ... in deference to raw arithmetic density we have to table it -
  2. In seclusion that pattern is fantastic ... Unfortunately, beyond that scope it is being beset on all sides by circumstances that are tougher to ignore. First of which ... seasonal trend. There is a leitmotif going on where pattern projections that could have - and probably should have - performed better than two systems all year. One of which wasn't event a telecon suggestive event - it was sub-index scaled. Seasonal trend has a non-negligible factorization. It is often times less quantifiable, too. If we don't know what the reasons are, it looks like just not being able to roll the dice we need. In reality, there's a manifold of forces we don't get to acquaint with because they are beyond the capacity of tech and science...and blah blah blah. It's called fractals to us when we are not gods. LOL One such example is ... not the first time an impressive -EPO relay into +PNA timed combination of teleconnectors projections, ( to mention the actualized spatial layout of the ensemble hemispheres) loaded up the hemisphere with 'righteous expectations'. This happened a month ago, and was signaled for post the 15th of the month ( at that time...) - seem familiar? Second confidence dimmer is a combination of things. One, March ... particularly the 2nd halves, models do something similar every year; they seem to regress seasonal forcing out of the guidance, out in time. It's like they take in the present day's parameters, which in theory includes the daily +d(watts/sq-m) solar flux ... then spend the next 360 hours of their processing trying to cleanse it out of the run. Way out in time ... fading back February. Two, all that ...and, the background climate change to warm springs earlier and earlier - which unfortunately for some of you ... you attempt to controvert what is incontrovertible, leaping over the definition and absolute limitation of what incontrovertible actually means LOL So, that's getting to be a huge list of valid reasons to doubt that pattern will manifest as deep and exotically perfect as that looks. Possible? of course... But in 1996, that pattern would be more believable because virtually all those aspects above were not in play.
  3. Dude ... after the 40 or 50 years of our lives [probably] suffering the vicissitudes of New England climate betwixt March 10 and May 10 ... this doesn't suck. It just is... normal
  4. Thur night hydro concerns have been suggestive for days at this point. imho - I posted about awhile back. The flood-wick was certainly priming since last summer's rain anomalies. Then a lack of substantive drying since.
  5. Sneaky nape balm day tomorrow ( maybe...). Small pocket of lower ceiling level RH coincides with residual warm in the 925 to 800 mb level at mid day ( Euro and NAM blend) suggests a 3 or 4 hour window of partly sunny, MOS buster highs. Bears some comparison to this last Sunday afternoon
  6. Too bad there isn't any cold air for the 11th .. that'd be major major if there were.
  7. To each his/her own but 46 F isn't a mild afternoon... We were 56 and then tanked 10 F when a fairly obvious marine intrusion swept in. Anywhere E and NE of here is not mild guys.
  8. actually, the 12z Euro is a little better ... but it's placing the low over Mt Washington - yup, that always happens
  9. Seasonal smear is already pretty obviously swept over the hemisphere... These systemic llv gradients are normalizing on either side of boundaries. It's one of the reasons why the 11th is sort of a blown up ravioli look with a dispersed cyclonic pressure pattern... because that focus feeds back on the vertical structure, and helps deepen it further ...which in turn carves the trough to a more southerly latitude ... lot of feedback mechanics are gone and we have lots of S/W still capable aloft, but with comparably weaker organized surface lows as a result. But what we are seeing is PWAT anomalies. Gee... unusually early springs? More rain than is normal relative to weaker systems? I wonder what could be causing those.. But it's not committing to warmth, either. It's just making things inCREdibly boring. At least the clocks go ahead in 6 days. Get out of work in 58 F with still some daylight is at least seemingly better than dreary.
  10. wonderin if we can sneak in a flood threat Thur night
  11. Yep. … I noticed that when that happened, we started repositioning the ensemble mean, and a lot of the mid upper features the whole everything of it, more N too. It really seems that we have this multi season plague going on where the true northern Stream and true southern stream can’t play nice together.
  12. I'm still suspicious about the version we've been fed by that organization over the last 2 or 3 years. I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibility that we were deliberately given a regressed beta version in preparation for this next gen roll-out. Kind of a 'calculated risk' to up the profile of the new version while not too seriously compromising performance. But ... we're kind of a hyper sensy sort in here and notice things. I mean I just find it hard to believe in blanket statements like, "ever since they updated it its been a piece of shit" as though some bug or error or incompetence got through QA. These are post doc scientific engineers - they're just not that 'stupid' ... I find it more likely that they knew/know all along what's going on.
  13. ? I thought that was slated for July 1...
  14. Yeah ... the ensemble means are still carrying on with an impressive signal overnight wrt to the 11th but there are plenty of reasons to doubt whether that'll mean much in the way of wintry result. One aspect that is probably of lesser importance to most in this forum is that there is a new moon/spring tide between the 10th and 12th. Some of the spread members of the various ensemble means are less than 980 mb ... and powerful Nor'easter implicated. This system should be watched for the combinations of those factors.
  15. It actually passes over the islands just about as deep
  16. This is about as impressive a signal as your ever going to see at 180 hrs
  17. We’ll … you’re certainly lucky to have been born into this era of increasing acceptance -
  18. Re the 11th Late blooming IP blizzard on the Euro... strange looking for a CCB head to do that but that's probably a nod to dynamics winning that, push come to shove. Major bomb on the GFS ... position less meaningful at this range. Whether that happens as is or not, the general/local hemisphere-synoptic evolution reminds me of 1997 late March. Fits my personal recall. Even the ensemble mean bears a likeness, having a well defined multi-contoured low at D7+ range, with spread back toward the coast. Mid and u/a low cuts off and deepens significantly in the op version, easily too close for comfort there. GGEM is warmest but it too reaches <980 mb pressure as it is leaving... All this is 180 to 200 hours out, offered up while their respective ensemble means are lit up with an obvious and continuous signal between Cape Cod and the BM. Interestingly persistent considering they picked this up at the 'coherence horizon' some D12 or 13 in advance. All of which is taking place in a saddling NAO index in the process of retrograding from eastern toward western limb orientation, while a +d(PNA) is underway. The atmosphere is marginal, but given some of these dynamical juggernaut solutions ...you could even do well with marginal+ as the kinematics are sufficient to overwhelm. The only thing stopping me from threading this event for early awareness is the modulation antic of typical March. I have seen a lot of these bigger majors normalize. Plus, we habitually see the models over amped at this range. If this were January ...different story. I'd say if we make D6 and this coherence is stayed/improves ... It's also a New Moon/spring tide concern late next weekend/11th
  19. Wind turned E … that was a katabatic compression of an already anomalously hot air mass. The emergent synoptic circumstance had never been seen - it was determined to be CC feedback upon attribution science. Bringing that freak high kinetically charged, low DP air down slope was a death knell.
  20. People forget we had about 24 inches of rain in 50 days in December and early January much of which fell in the 30s. actually check that… Just seems that way
  21. It was like that many times all winter long down here – no sympathy. Lol
  22. It is less likely that we will ever experience a synoptic/synergistic heat burst the likes of which they experienced out there, because of where we are situated with respect to the rest of the continent and the adjacent Labrador current. When we are not being fiddled with by the ladder cooling influence… our air mass is a result of having collected the bio ozone and or subtropical inflow off of the southwest Atlantic basin. We are a more humid baseline summer atmosphere, which is not conducive to temperatures rising to between 110 and 114° By circumstance when our dewpoint are low in the summer, it is typically because of kinetically cooled air mass from Canada There’s a reason why the ballast of our warming climate expression here in New England is in the nocturnal side of the diurnal. Fromunda’ dewpoints keep the air back-a ballz sultry at night. People have to understand that climate change means holding more water vapor in the atmosphere… Anyway, if it ever got to 104/76 that’s hot enough anyway because the heat index would be probably comparable to what they got out there and that would be the way that we would do it through the HI
  23. I've always imagined a scenario where I had the wherewithal to flee this New England taint season. I'm willing to risk the historic bomb, because they are just too rare to bother. I'm also willing to risk the fair day in April, because those too are just too rare and not enough of them. April should not exist on a God intended Earth ... Mostly from about March 15 through May 1, what you get is what's going on out there right now. Light rain/40s F
  24. EPS was an improvement. GEFS/GEPS hesitated just a little
  25. yeah that Thursday thing's actually in the way of the latter one.
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