Typhoon Tip

I'm just glad it gone by late Friday... Saturday's gonna suck though - but it won't be sheets of rain with nape soothing cat paws in the hills at least. The flow on the backside of this thing isn't strong. Not enough gradient. That actually limits the downslope drying potential as this thing stalls while death gasping up there over the N GOM ... stagnating a saturated low level that is capped over by post system inversion just above. So that means a putrid Saturday - if more actual NW wind occurs, that might help offset that. We'll see. Otherwise, Sunday should be a marked improvement.

probably this summer 'initiation event' ...first of it's kind, if it indeed takes place as currently hinted in that time frame, won't be of the higher DP ilk. It's got the over top appeal. DPs tend to be higher when we get WAR retrogrades with source arriving from the Arklotex region/Gulf. When the ridge blossoms and is well timed with a heat expulsion from the west ( as I outlined above a -d(PNA) switch in the index), it's pulling air up and over the ridge and it's thus arid kinetically charged air from the the Sonora Desert to west TX region. These source/origin differences matter. The over-top variant can then evolve into a DP richer scenario given time ... because as they then go on to relax, the flow veers more SW, switching from the initial WNW delivery. Then the source is more deep south's continental bio farts and also Gulf of Mexico entrained air. This is all meaningless if the current signal changes - just as it sets right now in the guidance, the initial arrival is from that more arid description above. It's kind of like a mid 80s/62 DP ... 90/63. If the expulsion/'Sonoran heat release' is upper tier, than the temperature side of that would naturally be higher.

The D7 thru 13 telecon modality is -PNA whilst the polar field indexes are positive. At some point along the way here the perennial correlation blurring associated to summer hemispheric L/W breakdown skewing things will set in... but, it's obviously based upon what is actually happening - not what the climate says it should. In this case, there's identifiable Rosby ordering in the hemisphere - although there is some wave skewing noted... So long as as the indenties are still prevalent however, there's correlative value. A -PNA, combined with a relaxed blocking/+AO(NAO) ... is a telecon convergent signal for warm up over the continental mid latitudes. I also like the robust +PNA in the foreground. In my own researching heat wave genesis for the eastern CONUS, I've noted that they are often preceded by a +PNA effectively generating multi day tropospheric thermal fixing over the W/SW aspects of the continent; then the subsequent mass field shift ejects this heat E into a -PNA signaled ridge ballooning. This sequence of events is like a 10-day in wholesale behavior. A model that actually fits what we are seeing in the telecons at this time. The operational versions have already been hinting. With a +PNA maxing in 5 days, then -d(PNA) taking place, then seeing the seesaw at large scale mass field layout in operationals out there is interesting. Not outright predicting a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW expulsion event, but for an extended tapestry of indicators it's a possibility some amount above base-line climatology.

thanks fully... it is not summer - seriously though, there's a improving signal for heat ... well, "warmer" ( lets start there and see where this goes - ) at the end of next week that's open ended heading into June. It's in the extended so no use really commenting on differences in timing onset and/or magnitude and those details for now. But this would coincide with the June 1 climate demarcation standard - which of course means nothing to objective nature ... but seein' and humans like tidy boundaries. lol

Oooh, that's why no weather-related melt downs from Scott this week so far... I wondered how in the hell it could be that this time in Count Rugen's torture chamber wasn't triggering moaning and outrage ... I give it until late afternoon.

I saw a 10 second splash ... but yeah, it's hard to imagine even that much happening given this, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ...which, that's pretty interesting to see that massive retrograde flow from the NE like that directly opposing that vortex-related flow arriving from the OV. Obviously the one from the west will ultimately win... but the battle will require the depths of misery

I just want it warm … with light lingering breezes extending into the evenings, and the promise of 64 at dawn going to the mid 80s the next day, and the day after that.

nah... Don't let the gloom light of the day along with the negative temperature anomaly sway one's impression of May. It's quite a bit above normal this month, with several days near or even exceeding 80 F - so it wasn't just the lows this time ... With actually a lower cloud anomaly. This is no April. In fact, it's almost an insult to those that hate April for legitimacy to have to accept this month as being anything like what they've suffered all those wretched ass violating Aprils of the past. Lol clear enough?

Kevin's over top warm blast is showing up on some of these recent GFS runs around June 1. This 12z version has a continental warm front demarcating a torpedo heat tube coming from the WNW ... probably 90 considering the sun up thickness is 567, and 572 by late afternoon behind this boundary... transporting 850s to 16+C in an easily tall mixing layer

It's CNN, so taken with caution ... but interesting nonetheless https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/climate/ice-sheets-sea-level-rise forward, the journal Communications Earth & Environment. Phys.org has a version too https://phys.org/news/2025-05-15c-paris-climate-agreement-high.html

I think it possible if not likely that the positive feed-backs a real and ubiquitous fusion future brings for humanity, are not being fully visualized. Example, the CO2 sequestering is obviously physically possible. But the problem isn't in the mathematics, it's in the engineering: 'How to do so by not requiring equal or more energy?' Point for discussion ... it takes a lot of energy to crack apart the CO2 molecule. If you're needing so much energy, particularly when the energy is coming from carbon combustion sources to do so ... you are not effectively lowering anything. We know all this ... The solution up at the Orca facility in Iceland was to tap the region's effectively limitless geothermal energy source. How that is a gimmick - or why... - is actually not really an engineering 'know-how' related matter. I'll have to read exactly why they are on the wrong side of the results. Gimmick doesn't add up for me, though, because there's no way that the secretive or dishonest mechanism for perpetuating some other cause ( in this case preserving combustion of carbon) would ever conceivable work or remain clandestine form people frankly noticing that - that seems too childish to believe. ...Although as afterthought, shit ...we put one of Satan's colon polyps in the white house so anything's possible... Back on fusion, it's an easy case to make that a fusion would be more than equal to that challenge. The range estimates vary some based upon source ( MIT ...vs "AI" ...vs - ) but as many as 5 to 8 orders of magnitude more power is accessible over any present conventional means. That's between 10, and some estimates as high 100 million times more. The expression, "an embarrassment of riches" leaps to mind. So... with essentially 0 on the negative side of the net equation, this problem of CO2 above the background correction capacity of the planetary systems becomes no problem at all. The remaining challenges, beyond the sociological assholeness of our species, are rendered to a trivial endeavor. But, this kind of "Kardashev 1" level control at a planetary scale would really mean fixing, or having the ability to fix the problem, fast - precisely what is needed. Any limitations beyond that would be sociological - different discussion. It wouldn't have to take centuries to correct the anthropomorphic CO2, back to state prior to the Industrial Revolution. ... Even if CO2 were suddenly halted, (not remotely realistic), a natural extinction rate of CO2 is too slow to stop the other usage of the term extinction; and toppling indirectly linked ecological systems exposes thresholds in multitudes - true dystopia is realized. The general biology science ambit argues that it's already beginning...etc. It's a snow ball just starting to roll down hill. Fusion would create a favorable synergy space for innovation in general - that's an intuitive no-brainer. However the truly transformative extent of that is likely hard to visualize in terms of discrete applications. If, and most like when, quantum computing is brought on-line, power and intellect assist in both solution gathering and engineering applications ... staggering. Huge, huge steps in the department of, "innovation got humanity into this crisis; innovation is required to save us"

https://phys.org/news/2025-05-north-central-china.html

Here we go again ... https://phys.org/news/2025-05-north-central-china.html this has been going on for 20 years where eastern, mid -latitude North America, yeah ...we're warming ( mainly in the low temperatures ) in this region like everywhere else, but we are routinely the coldest (also) relative to everywhere else. Australia also had a summer that apparently 'could not end' according to press down there. Haven't heard from Europe - but the various climate monitoring sources are still pimping the global aspect. April was #2 - I think...

yeah this week's a lost cause through Saturday. might see some improvement on that day but the more appreciable change comes in Sunday like others have noted. we've actually fared pretty well so far this spring at not getting into a cold-stalled scenario in the larger synoptic behaviors. most of the schlitz we've encountered has been progressive and carried on out of here in a day or maybe two. but this is more of a blocking scenario across mid and eastern Canada. I guess we're kinda "due" considering our climate in the spring. the NAO is trying to rise moving forward this week ... but there's some sort of vestigial non-linear aspect lingering, where the circulation in general still "behaves" like a train wreck- either way, we've lost the progression so things are slowed down.

https://phys.org/news/2015-02-evidence-link-wavy-jet-stream.html

i almost wonder if summers will continue to dim over eastern n/a ... and winters will continue to warm ...until there is no seasonal change.

It's a matter of 'relative magnitude' You'd have to look at just the min departures from norm. then look at just the max departures from norm. Which ever has the greatest SD wins ... In this case we already know. The lows, particularly spanning the last couple of decades as Brian mentioned, have been increasing more so than the highs. He cites clouds and precip and I can't argue that. Ultimately, high temp is a response to solar diurnal flux so... if that flux is essentially the same - which it is ... - that leads to Terrain factorization as the modulating force. It's not voodoo. ha it's probably clouds but ...I'd just maybe add to that, increased aerosol pollution and the fact that we have a whole continent upstream delivering both industrial and bio generated farts to the New England rectum upon exiting so we may have additional part per in that discussion - just supposition...

Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is. It’s rue tho that lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale

According to NWS ( https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box ) the 4 majors are all running +4 to +5 ( decimals notwithstanding...) on the month. I was just looking at the MEX for next week at BDL-FIT-ASH and around that arc, the machine numbers are -10 to -13 for couple few days later this week. Probably going to correct some of the positive anomaly down. Funny though ... doesn't seem at all that positive to begin with. interesting. I think - for me anyway ... - might be susceptible to "model-based conditioning" It's like we're in a below normal pattern, but getting above normal scalar temperatures for it. But I'm remembering all the annoying model run after run after run... unrelenting winter look as June is coming over the f'in horizon. I wonder if this going to be below normal above below summer too

I read a paper about this ... This is the cold meander phenomenon that's tied to CC - they manifest ( or can...) as these unusual late and early shoulder season cold excursions, even capable of snowing in Octobers and Mays. We've known - or suspected - this frequency was increasing and have discussed it in here many times. Here we are. This is one of them. We're no where near snow at lower elevations this particular rendition, but in principle, the pattern is represented.

This is a nasty -NAO mass loading day out there... If one is a warm enthusiast, you're specifically being targeted for ..uh, indignity. Lol The index is only modestly negative at this time, but it's still descending. Having that 'almost' stalled piece of shit 998 mb low over the outer GOM, and a veritable Montreal Express conveyor gusting to 33 mph under cold air strata intervals is spot on. And it is one helluva way to run a late spring in a global warming holocaust, I'll tell ya -

Imho to a higher tolerance this entire hemisphere/continental, ongoing pattern, is still quite structurally analogous to any in a day out of a January ... Just think of it as being 30 or 40 dm higher in heights and thickness. It is as though the pattern is absorbing the seasonal solar flux/change ... but it, in itself, is still very winter like and not being forced to change due to that input - some how. That's what's been peculiar about this spring so far; the winter pattern isn't breaking down - same structure at a higher height registry. We're still getting above normal temperature days, too. And the "cold" ones are also doing that thing where they are cold more so relative to acclimation than they are cold relative to climatology, as well. This latter idiosyncrasy pretty much defined our temperature departure behavior during the last 9 months - here we are in May still doing that interpretive dance. All these idiosyncrasies are unusual. But they are unusual aspects that don't cause inconvenience enough for anyone to take notice. interesting. Another imo, but attribution is f*ing everything up like this... more often than not, it's sort of 'hidden' beneath the radar of everyday experience. But it's always there... lurking ... in wait to send Hethrow to 109 F, or fire off another 30 'Cane season ... or green up the Sahara (which is happening btw - ). There's a tendency - I suspect - for people to think that the eye-pop events are attributable and then it stops there. But that's really an observation-inconvenience bias making that judgement. Just a Monday morning QB thought -

Not a bad Euro run all things considered ... and considering what that looked like in the guidance just a short few days ago. The rather anachronistic Nor'easter is now timed earlier. This has been trended so not very new... but nice to see the continuity. Appears to be evacuated out of the region by late Friday... Saturday is manageable cool pool towers and instability shower dappled about the country side. But a decent day overall. Sun/Mon are dry NW d-slope flow days. At this time of year that's a decent look. I'm sure it mangle into some means to f-it all up but just as it looks for now.

we've actually only verified one mid 40s Labradorian giz pattern like that, and I've seen something like 7 or 8 of them modeled at this range. I'm guessin' these have a chance of normalizing based on that track record. MDW has been improving in guidance for two days worth of runs... I realize it's about personal druthers but ... I couldn't give a ratz ass if it funks out Wed and Thur if the weekends in tact.

I'm liking the subtle yet coherent trends toward a progressive look over the days leading and throughout the Mem Day weekend... This is not only more consistent with the circulation manifold of Earth for the past 15 years ( ), it also has the upshot of not inundating - or being as likely to ... - the entire holiday weekend. In fact, the 0 and 6z GFS runs are even done with it all by the time Saturday rolls around, having brought it all through by the preceding Thur/Fri... So progressive in fact that it brings a fropa from an entirely different Pacific wave propagation by Sunday. Euro's still trying to scheme a way to ruin the whole thing but even it's stressed in that solution. LOL