Typhoon Tip

Oh. Indirectly related ...that maps seems a bit positive biased for around here. There's no snow on any yard or field. There's just these smaller piles skirting parking lots and what-not. I don't think those entrails are what this chart above is graphically presenting. Despite looking and sensibly appealing cold and gloomy that last 2 days since that event, we've very proficiently eradicated the 3 1/2 of dense sleet/snow mixture.

Here's the deal... we were plannin' on leaving early and headin' on up for the eclipse, replete with cooler and goggles not unlike the hundreds of thousands ( even millions) doing the same. This would make for a potentially shitty day out of a once in a lifetime experience. ... be that as it may... We have these strategies to avoid that part of the frustration - over crowded roads and stalled traffic that appears out to the horizon ..etc. Hopefully that works out. But there is a certain value in sticking here. My buddy's saying that if we get on one of the interstates and it's standing still we'll bale and just come back and do the 93% here and get a round of disc golf in. It's a hookie day from work and it's likely to be almost 70 F, with azure-cerulean blue skies horizon to horizon, with no wind and very low RH. Hmm if we get all the way up there, we'll miss out on that - that first day of the year like that is special. But it's likely to be in slush dump fields and muddy, and temperatures in the low 50s up along the path of totality.

Mid 60s tomorrow ... 70 possible over parking lots and sun lit back decks. what are you looking at that "looks like winter"

2044 is happening here? Oh ... you mean in general. My experience with attempting to buck demographics with sneaky lesser known routes and circuitous right and left turns that you think others aren't really accessing is that you end up actually worse - because it's far worse to be in grid lock alongthose podunk roads. With millions of people attempting to converge on N NY-NY-VT-N NH, the odds are overwhelmingly against you. The probability is there are thousands of people that thought the same thing you did and en masse, you're all packing those roads too. It doesn't work. I think my crew is planning on a disk golf round afterward. That will give 2 or 3 hours for the fudge to unpack.

Heh ... I disagree. I mean obviously this is just for subjective muse buuuut... it's a difference of mise-en-scène when you have the possibilities of an entire winter still before you. That month of late autumn is also been improving in wintry threat frequencies - owing to CC changing the circulation modes of the hemisphere, triggering seasonal 'pro-lapsing'. Counter-intuitive perhaps, but that causes cold incursions to increase at that time of year. It just doesn't last deeper into winters for a delicious popsicle headache bunch of reasons... Anyway, it may suck for him or her ... that's up to the individual. But if the reason it is sucking is because of uninspired drab weather? I don't see how either a subjective or objective observation makes that time year bad enough to put an "!" bang on the word suck - certainly not compared to a 47 f'um degrees with an endless hallway coming at us full of strata blocking warm sun, April. I get it that you can have fine stretches in Aprils ... however, that's like a abusive spouse syndrome. You may get these tender moments that keep you coming back ... ultimately for the back of the hand.

The operational model versions appear more pessimistic overall than their ensemble means ... I'm not sure that means they are wrong, however. The differences between them is the amount of blocking vs keeping the flow progressive. For ex, the GFS has what looks like a another -2 SD western -NAO. The GEFs mean however keeps the flow progressive through the NAO domain. GFS implies butt-bang weather. The GEFs would at least offer warm interludes. As spring/warm enthusiasts, obviously we don't want the operational GFS. We could say that it is an outlier compared to its ens mean ... etc therefore less likely to be correct. It's also true that at this time of year, with chaotic flow and shortening wave lengths, the overall predictive skill is just technologically limited... that too. However, we just had a pretty crazy -NAO, so the seasonal precedence is in place. That means if it happened once, it can certainly happen again. The other aspect is that we've been suffering this spring bullshit with New England being the only offset cool location out of the whole world, while everywhere else brags about global warming LOL. It's like we're the red-headed step child region. We have this tendency around here that is very real though, to never "feel" or sense our weather to be above normal, yet ... we're always resulting above normal. Relativity I suppose... We just aren't getting the big departures they're getting elsewhere. For whatever reason(s), we are above normal in a very uninspired/sneaky means; we are consummately limping to the finish line in last place in the warmer than normal race. We are currently -.5 and -2.2 at Hartford and Worcester so far through April 6. At least for the time being ... the averages actually are negative so far. But I wouldn't be surprised if these end up mirrored by the end of the month, yet we still carry on with our personal impressions of being red-headed ( lol )

Need more research publications such as this ... https://phys.org/news/2024-04-electric-vehicles-lowering-bay-area.html ...to help dispel these Big Oil propaganda narratives that it cost too much this, or is shifting the problem that - all of which are of course by design, at great convenience to their economic outlook. ' So may as well just not do anything'

i almost imagine after the next 100 years of only tepid success ... ultimately failing time constraining 'climate deadlines' later, and our seasons are so smeared at the boundaries it seems like it's trying to become one season. We average 56 to 62 in "cold" season, and summers are a putrid 81/79 daily torpid steam bath under rumbles like a rain forest...

here comes thursday, friday, shitterday, sunday ...

That'd be awesome... "What's cursive?" "You'll have to research, won't you." so in additional writing the paper in general, they gotta do that, too. And if they don't turn it in on Monday, they'll get the various corporal discipline tactics.

'wtf is cursive', right?

Sea surface anomaly distributions are susceptible to local time-scale (vastly shorter than 'climate') wind stressing patterns. Those variances may redistribute (warm)(cool) either above or below the longer term baseline, but such interludes seldom represent the longer-termed systemic state.

Classic omega pattern owing to spring tendency here

Cool ... looks like it was just updated, too

"Feel" ? I wonder if that is a subjective based reporting - like, population reported. So all the darker squares are like "23-and-me" genetically connected to the same lineage as Kevin in other words.

that was more likely something dietary that far away lol

mmm I'm on your side with this sentiment, but unfortunately ... it looks like it wants to claim this weekend, too. Sunday may get better ... at 4pm. heh.. I dunno. Maybe downslope flow will offset that cold anus whirling around the GOM? Monday is shockingly looking unobstructed skies ...i.e., clear, and has been that way for a week or more of modeling, in all sources. A true ironic rarity for the month of Asshole ... perhaps as rare a feet as an Eclipse.

Well ... one way we could look at it is that it's not technically padding jack shit. This is spring. Not winter. heh prolly doesn't offer much solace or consolation. .

enjoy it ... it may be the last time any of us see snow below ... say I dunno 1200 or 1400 feet, until the perfunctory November 4th 3-5" before winter turns into another crapper. A wind blown scarp of can't seem to snowisms, which will be associated 100% to a climate change that pisses everyone off in this peculiar forum of denial while not denying - very strange. Thank you thank you... This storm seems to have bottled up the remainder of that -EPO burst cold from two weeks ago when looking at the various ensemble means 850 mb evolution. We go from this pool of deep-ish anomaly into more of a oscillatory pattern swinging between seasonally cool to seasonally warm air masses. Call it seasonal+ I don't see more significant positive departures though perhaps until 20th.

I was wondering if we'll start generating growth in the boundary pause - start cooling the BL below the after storm inversion ... squeezing out street lamp pixie

tonight might be fun on the roads outside of that warm secluded inner occlusion. Settle off to 31.5 instead of this 33 .. 34 stuff.

Ha. Just feelin' snarky this morning. By the way, I don't know who said what, nor when ...? If you were thinking I was responding to any one person, I was just skimming content. The idea of "people denying because they can" is something that just bothers me about the culture we now all live and breath within in general - it's a sociological pathology. It's bad out there. I blame the Internet, really. It's giving a podium to those with limited education, clearly lower virtuosity awareness in whether to speak without having learned information. Or, they are just not very intelligent due to circumstance/life history ... yet think they know. They come in different flavors, and socially recognized echelon is no indicator, either. Hailing from wherever, they believe their own righteous indignation (as though CC is some kind of violation of their rights and entitlement) must be just as meaningful as accredited source, with all the import. Sound familiar? It's like we're all showing up to the 'debates' with 'participation trophies' as our PHDs. Why that is a problem is that all human being engender conviction when others gather around their ideology. It's just the way we are. The consensus must be true, and so on... And the internet is linking together the plebeian wit; creating a consensus, it foments whatever narratives it needs - narratives seldom reconcile objectively reality. I wildly digress. Some of that is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that is probably hard to sense without the necessary sarcastic tone of actual voiced delivery... etc. But like all sarcasm, there's a soupcon of truth in there, too. I don't deny CC ( personally ) at all, myself. But you know ... it's not about whether one denies or doesn't? Oh, the debate carries on, ...but it's futile. It's real, and it is mathematically demonstrated/proven that anthropogenic forcing is playing a roll; all data included, a very big and undeniable roll. That's not alarmist, per se. That's fact. But therein links back to the sardonic paragraph above: Objective reality is still interestingly a problem for people. Let me just say the short version, they are being enable to do so. It's really a sociological problem. Fix the sociological abstinence to acceptance, fixes everything ... But, the same reason for the CC, is simultaneously preventing people from sensing the reality of CC at a very necessary personal scope - 'personal' because obviously they are unwilling if no apprehensive without some sort or form of direct proof. I hypothesize the reason society ended up that way is by what I call 'multi-generational convenience addling' It's basically all that is emerged since the Industrial Revolution since it took over as the foundation upon which modern civility and all of its practices came into being. Being protected inside the Industrial Revolution bubble ( and I use bubble for metaphor of fragility, despite the conceit of all the industrial farts that inflate 'the bubble'), reciprocated into successive generations over the last 150 years ... we've bread a peoples that are not particularly very desirable frankly ( hahaha). Life inside the industrial bubble affords lesser/no consequence for poor decisions, because it offers too many recourse' ... Rolling that impression over successive generations over the last 150 year, two things happens. One is recently papered/demonstrated that the average persons IQ is 20 pts lower than those prior to the Industrial Revolution. I read that paper and thought ...gee, that fits my 'denial because they can' rage rather nicely. hahaha. It's true though. The other thing that happens is, people don't believe in the dead end warning of CC and the implication of what it would mean, because every part of their being was fabricated by an entitlement to an abundance of recourse whenever faced with failure. The resonance of a 'dead end and dire warning' simply can't transmit through their wiring. It's a fascinating feed-back argument is what it really is... If you took a father in 1750, and showed him data that said if he didn't cultivate a certain way, his kids won't eat tomorrow, chances are he studies that text pretty damn closely rather than knee- jerk reacting in defiance of it.

There is spectrum of denial forms. At the heart of it all, people would stop all of it ... if CC caused them pain. End of story. As I've opined at length, in the past, the simple version is that people are not suffering consequences that actually cause them discomfort for the perspectives ...more importantly, the decisions they make based upon those perspectives. When they do, they will immediately desist all behaviors that cause the discomfort. - and denying CC --> causing CC, will go away. Unfortunately, it will be too late. Welcome to the this world's reality-explanation for the Fermi Paradox.

Keep getting lulls where it’s not doing anything Radar looks shredded

It was funny friend. ha... I really don't care - seriously.