Typhoon Tip

You and Ray did you move recently? I thought you were NW of there - why would you of all people move to that warm caldron lower elevation. lol

I like these HRRR recent returns. They seem to compromise between interior cold wall resistance, versus the erosion of lacking +PP situated N. I'm good with a compromise, because it shows at least that the models f'n can see that it's 27/19 in Sutton ( for ex.)

I added to that....in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

It's starting to slowly penetrate my dense skull. If this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N, anyway. Kind of a trade off. The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking that higher pressure pattern situated N. These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away. It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit. It's annoying. But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [ hint, add today ]. That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less. If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed, perhaps too much so to have even risen this thread to 50+ pages. Having said all that...in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

I actually like this depiction for this ... I mentioned yesterday to Henry that I though roughly White Plains-Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth was going to be hard to penetrate warmth beyond that axis. I've also been scratching my head as to what I feel were bloated modeled QPF numbers. The 06z NAM has abruptly corrected down and is just 1/3 of the previous modeled totals at Logan... while the Euro has been moving the system so damn fast - in fact ..that's the theme with this all along. Real quick hitter. This is a candidate to both be marginally colder than the consensus, while also ... a bit lighter as a total result.

I just intimated similarly.. It's not clear to me how the models punch such warm BL air so far inland as they are, given to the fact that as the low moves (quickly so ..which should even help conserve cold) by to the S, wind from the surface up will will necessarily back around - not continue a WAA assault. It just looks to me like the set of environmental variables that are responsible for managing the BL effects were like inadvertently not turned on or set into winter seasonal mode in the models or something. Ha ha. That's sci fi for fun.

Some of those OE band elements moving N from the south coast made it this far N and clipped by... Just a feather dusting. But it's neat looking on the road surface; every single flake particle was preserved. Zero lost to melt. The whole road is polka-dotted with white stamps. 26/18 as we sit in wait to see how a storm moving underneath our SNE latitude, can somehow warm this far N-W. It's a head scratcher but one would think that is an error. I just noticed that the 00z GGEM actually pinned the mix line nearby me more so than the other guidance, and the 06z GFS seemed to at least try to keep the mix line just SE of my area by a narrow escape. So we'll see...

yeah that was mostly one Met talking to another. It's clear outside, with a DPs regionally 10 to 19. We're likely getting quite cold in the lowest levels because of that. That's possibly not being assessed properly wherein the poorly resolved lowest levels that the models can have trouble. It's not a slam dunk for a positive bust, but this strikes me as a potential to end up marginally colder - particularly with the storm structurally evolving and moving underneath our latitude. I'm not sure where you reside but for like Springfield to Ayer ...that band I suspect it safely snow in this... It's really more of a contention as to where the mix line ends up... I think there's room for it to be S of consensus in this case.

agreed here. I discussed this several hours ago ... "The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. " add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

did anyone notice how i used a black snowflake there ... ha?

Perfect!

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

Yep... was just coming in to dial up the d-drip haha

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too. Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I know what you mean ... I don't mean to sound condescending/boomer-ish but, I think that relative to your age they've been less occurring. I remember several in the 1980s and 1990s. They're just not as common anymore - gee wonder why ... They're also no a big deal. If treatment is applied to the walkways and roads they're reduced to a non-story. Problems is, the latter seldom was in time.

flash freeze potential. warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways. I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho.

check the NAM for that ... I think the Euro's hinting. Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there. The other aspect that's head scratching a bit. The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. interesting

Nah... we're getting gypped late, and as is typical ... that is when the models put out a menagerie of bum pump near misses and if-onlys for the entire extended range after the near term shaft...haha.

I'm trying to figure out what Ray's doin' in the same bathroom where Kevin's taking a bath

well heh, not to be a dink but this thing isn't likely to be more than manageable in my eyes, and never was. middling middling middling. it's moving too fast. barely below 995 ... all of it. but i get it that 4" of paste can bring down power lines but that's like climo hassle level stuff

Wondering if there'll be a couple of swaths of blinding snow squalls associated with that arctic front Thursday afternoon.

It's true - ish. And the reason is because the basal velocities around the mid latitudes have risen in recent decade(s). It's just straight up statistically not favored to maintain a 'delicate' total confluent structure to the flow, when the fervency et al is tending to move everything along. I.e, less able to resonate in position. The same thing is happening with teleconnectors, too. The correlations are still there, but mass field biases, negative or positive, break down faster than the statistically favored or related events have time to materialize. This is likely why we keep seeing so many fast field/progressive patterns by behavior. Then we get these torpedo lows slipping along via shortwaves escaping out over the N Atl barely 84 hours from arriving off the Pacific.

Or missing?

One would think the models are physically handling this ... but there's an almost nondescript cold front and associated 'bubble' high over lower Ontario and Upstate NY ... DPs in that region are < 20F ... with temperatures about 10-15 F colder. It's moving this way. It may prove important as an antecedent prep for this thing

Little detail about this NAM run ... it's gotta pretty defined CCB band lagging back into central zones passing through 42 hours out. That was less clearly defined in previous runs. If that's true, areas that disappointingly had gone over to big droplet cold rains with one or two windshield cat paws would likely flash freeze while a couple of exit inches.