Typhoon Tip

It's also slightly S-E of previous mean

I gave a list of pros and cons for this in the monthly thread this morning. That content still applies. 50/50 ...

regardless of whatever the UKMET is painting on the sfc chart for this 150 hour outlook off this 12z run ... storm climatology would place a very intense arc of precipitation roughly White Plains to BOS for this kind of 500 mb

The GFS solution is odd.. It's as though it is too intense. It's highly contracted in all quadrants, very annular and focused internally to the axis of the cyclone. If you saw any one of those D8 GFS September hurricanes running parallel to the EC, it would like like that at PGF layout. I guess on the east side it does open up some. But it's like it's overly responsive to forcing very early in the total wave space, and so it then preferences that early location and is thus also overly - if perhaps erroneously - nucleated there. That said, even if so ... that surface solution is within an envelope of acceptable error. It could reposition on the next run ... 50 or even 100 my NW of this run's fix, and still be in said envelope of acceptable error. If we get to within 30 or so hours and all this is still dosing drips like this...then we'll discuss whether it will be idiosyncratically positioning, relative to the deep layer structures, with more confidence as to where.

what the fuck does LBSW mean? wtf does social diversification recognition have to do with atmospheric dynamics -

Not sure why I'm giving this particular model, at this kind of lead range, this much attention and energy but ... for shits and giggles, this run is actually deeper and arguable a tick or two closer than the 12z run yesterday, which delivered monster snow totals. This one just out at 12z this morning ... the only difference is that it is loading about half the QPF totals. It almost smacks like whatever physics it uses, swaps out QPF mechanics for kinetic/cyclone power - and vice versa... It's probably just internal physical idiosyncratic handling between those to particular runs. Why the 00z was completely in a wholesale different universe and not a part of the conversation, altogether is beyond me - but I'm not an ICON specialist by any means...

I think by the year 2130 airline flighting will have long become an outmoded method for transportation. Go ahead and schedule the time away …

So reminiscent. Like a favorite song. I recall the D6 MRF ensemble mean in the days before Apr 1997 looked just exactly like that, having those members along with uncertainty pulling W. Just looking at this and I’m taken back in time. … God I need to get laid

This 06z mean is a bit of a reposition W compared to the prior 00z cycle. Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous.. 06z EPS mean. Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in storm climo

heh... the crack addict will always pack the higher dose

This mean is a bit of a reposition W. Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous.. 06z EPS mean. Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

okay

Just closer and with a bigger envelope.

Why? it's not that infallible I'll just remind folks ... these AI versions did at D6 or 7, pimp out yesterday's missed system, too. I think there's some recency scope bias going on and these tool reps are benefiting from it. We're turning them into celebrities prematurely? Edit: I was thinking of the end January fiasco -

heh... yeah. That ukmet 00z run. Probably the fastest total tropospheric depth differential I've ever seen, certainly in that region. And it's not from a core arrival. It's cyclogenic feedback produced! It's imploding with the mid level height core just E of NJ at a rate seldom seen - somewhere in the range of 30 dm in 12 hours. That's a hyperbomb

The leap from the 00z's AI ECM depiction to what it did in the 06z ... yee gads!

Decent Miller B exemplified by the 06z AI GFS version... whether this happens or not, this is a run-way model

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

well, those should count. coastal's a coastal

well... snow or not, there's been no report at all this year, that I can recall anyway

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with 0 coastals? I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn. But since November say. zippo

Fire up a thread ...

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA. It's like a sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one. Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect. But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be fun ironic if this one fought off all those reason and worked out for the better. There is still the relative PNA spike.

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997 sorry

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood.. The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -