Typhoon Tip

The GFS solution is a warm core

In this rough eval you can kind of make that out ... The axis represent clusters of ~ nadirs, and then using the interactive date finder in the product, does suggest that over the last 20 years the mins ice dates have been later into September. It's not a huge signal in and of itself, but it's of greater importance, if not made more significant, by the ice is has also been losing mass over that span of years. I'm sure it would not be too difficult to just get the actual sq*km min numerical numbers and dates, and graph that aspect - but just eyeballin' above.

Oh, ha... well, in that case - any given location could get lucky with a training axis. This does look a bit like it could be a slow evolving scenario so convection might orient into favored bands, along which there can be decent totals. In between? not so much.

Interesting shallowing of the ice loss ...relative to recency that is. Good sign for winter enthusiasts? - well, at least analytically for me I've come to find in the past that the rates of d(ice) and d(land-snow) in autumns appeared to be positively correlated to N/A mid latitude winters during ensuing cold season. We've still got about 2 weeks to go before climo bottoms out and we enter autumn so we'll see if this year can be another test for that.

It doesn't look like a total wash out. Some towns may end up slipping through gaps in a couple line of showers/thunder, while other's get a couple doses. But not like raining all the time. I guess play it by ear

Yeah, I dunno. Personally? I wasn’t attempting to qualify it one way or other - the advent of it is sort of a symbolic rite of passage. Perhaps even right on schedule. Some suggestion in the deep range that it will at least turn warmer again .. how much so unknown

The models have had a hard on for pinching off a mid level low over Brian for some reason … heh. … whatever he did to incur this wrath aside it appears to be legit. It’s only 4 days away so -

Saturday looks like an early autumn vibe in the air... kind of like the shot before the shot across the bow air mass. 69 to 71 highs? Not these faux suggestions merely because we're sensing the daylight slipping and it happens to not be as hot … when it's still climate okay and sun strength to actually be hot ... lol. But don't tell that to the ACATT crew, huh. Anyway, it looks like hydrostats slip beneath 560 for the first time in months. That's an important metric/distinction for me. Also, with cool pool mid level wobbling over CNE, we're probably going to pancake and shade the sun. So less shoulder offset.

Nah ..I've witnessed plenty of warm and humid stretches through mid Septembers. That bears out in climate, too. We're just in a low amplitude +PNA incoming, one that in my opinion is uncertain as to it's real impact on our temps and DPs. There's a chance we'll end up in a EC paralleling flow regime. Until this arriving trough axis actually gets east of our longitude, "cold" air will attenuate if wait altogether in actually getting E. The ensemble means and operational runs are lowering heights but keeping the trough west of us until late. If add to that to a subtle tendency to also de-amplify troughs when moving their handling through the mid range, it's not hard to see that turning into a Bahama Blue or quasi variant of one as a compromise. If the PNA then resonates and a secondary push takes place ( D way out there...), yeah then it's playing with a gun. There's frost alerts in the Arrow Head of MN... while there is triple digit heat headlines in the PAC NW. That concurrency is an anomaly in an of itself.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-sea-ice-ocean-currents-antarctica.html

18z NAM profile is near 90 Saturday BOS SW burbs/metrowest and other usuals.

this is really interesting actually https://phys.org/news/2025-08-temperatures-linked-declining-moods-world.html

Ha... Erin looks on satellite the last hour to be moving due E. Can you imagine if this were 1984? You're all fluffed to the point of bursting over this hurricane set to rocket N in the modeling standard of the day, set to pummel the area ... replete with warnings and fever pitch. Only to have set your coffee down this morning, and turned on the TV to a satellite loop of it moving due E hahaha priceless That's what it was like in the 1980s ... the wah wah waahhhh decade. Winter storms too. At least with this thing y'all mo'fuggahs knew ( though some stubbornly ignored...) 8 days in advance that the pattern was completely a piece of shit.

Nor should anyone ... ... But, if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. There's a risk in reading these cautions in absolute dictation. Becoming is not become. Like I said, none of this forestalls the advent of bomb winter. These teleconnectors are not 1::1 ... never have been. They can't be. There are too many contributing forces, creating a huge polynomial, each one more and then less- so scaling the equations for influence does not result a consistent contribution from their individual parts from year to year. Within that noise, there is tendency, however, during these the last 10 years ( rather consistently...) to be "more noisy" lol for lack of better phrase. I'm aware of situational bias. But I'm considering that there are reasons that support the ongoing disruption/observations therein.

Gee ...any marine taint today ? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The other thing that's irked me about this recent 3 or 4 day cool down is that it's lying? Talk about a faux autumn con -job. I say that because the hydrostatic heights ( thickness) have never fallen below 566 dm along the BUF-BOS latitude. Actually it was true over BTV, too. "deep" in the toposphere. The cool air has been a narrow layer on the bottom - completely belying the true deep layer, positive anomaly ongoing thermodynamic nature of the thing.

heh... great. more subjective word maze popsicle headache. Yeah I dunno. 'for me' I'm okay with deep summer being 83/62. It's not winter. It's not autumn nor spring. It's summer, and above climo for August 20. But again, it's a semantic waste of time. 90/70 is just hot; deep summer needs to be in place, first.

of course that's not intended to mean we can't get a bombed this year either... just sayn'

This stuff is more appealing in a 1992 planetary climate for me. Not so sure I vibe with that now that we've evolved to a 2025 state of global climate affairs. Most of the outlooks and conjectures I've read or heard are clad enough relative to classical modes ( longer termed telecons, air/ocean/land ...etc), but I'm compelled to consider a consistently observing winter circulation modes being unstable, despite those efforts. And thus ...less predictable, more so than usual - higher variance including at times unusually large correction ranges ( warm vs cool ), that for lack of better words, flout the governing/preceding indicators. More occurrences of anti-correlation. This instability was always clearly predicted by climate models and so interesting enough appears to be manifesting... I'm not sure I see a compensating mechanism that caps that manifestation from doing the same thing. I realize I've been sarcastic at times in mockery over having this winter just being like the last 7 or 8 consecutive ones/8 number of years, but there is modicum of valid reason in that humor. Because simply put, the 'disruption' aspects having been getting in the way of all intents and purposes ... with enough consistency and a large enough sample size to dim confidence in the reliance on classical application.

It'll be 83 to 85 with dps ~ 62 tomorrow Saturday and Sunday in the interior away from weakening marine contamination. That actually edges above climo at this time. what do we mean by "deep" ?

Ho, great ... https://phys.org/news/2025-08-ozone-planet-thought.html

The idea of tree and/or vegetation modulation on heat is again water vapor related. There's also a component of straight shade helping to block the sun. These two factors are important in that whole idea. Vegetation "sweats." It's called transpiration when it sources from plants. Water evaporates from that source, and that lowers the temperature. Although that does add water to the atmosphere in the form of vapor, but you'll end up with slightly elevated DPs in the vicinity of vegetation, with slightly lowered temps. As that is ongoing, the cooler resulting air is drawn downward because of course cooler air is denser. This principle is illustrated well in the bottom photo - although I can't attest to those actual numbers, but in so far as getting the point across.. that's the idea there. Contrasting, the upper photo doesn't have this process. This is a local cooling effect, however. The temperatures in those respective schematics are in the micro meteorology. Which, per course ... what one experiences in a city/urban setting on a hot day is in fact within a micro-meteorological realm. That would be neighborhood vs neighborhood... Unless the given cityscape is pervasively and comprehensively forested and so forth, it calls into questions the efficacy of offsetting a UHI effects. The collection of sun-exposed concrete surfaces, such as downtown, parking lots... the edifices of the buildings too, to mention the heat output from industrial scaled AC exhaust. It's a tricky math. Lot of summing multiple separate integrals in that calculus. My personal belief is that the UHI capacity goes up with warming CC, and goes back down with cooling CC. I suspect the growth may not be entirely linear, either ( as in going up together). Because different materials have different storing capacitance ... so that changes the contribution into the "UHI bubble" based on different energy source and sinks. It's a coupling of material sciences, with atmospheric science, which is not likely trivial. But intuitively, doesn't seem like that's a swift calculation to make. Just hypothetically... a sunny day in Phoenix AZ on July 10, 1972 may calculated a UHI factor of some 15F over the surrounding country, but that may be closer to 20F in 2025 given the same initial conditions and sunny day. See, the climate is 1C warmer, but there is a disproportionately larger UHI response.

It's a weak ass PRE if that were the case.

Yeah, I lean away ... but admit to some similarities. I tried to provide a little analysis but just sayn' ... we probably can't positive eliminate it altogether.