Typhoon Tip

Speak of the devil... "Oceans near record heat again as El Niño conditions begin to build" https://phys.org/news/2026-05-oceans-el-nio-conditions.html https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

It's also been going on since last October, too. All but one month, which is arguable anyway ..., were showing a plaguing cold anomaly, either in scalar extreme when not relative to the whole planet, situated over the eastern N/A latitudes .(.aka, us ) since late last autumn. I've been posting them since mid winter. NASA releases them around the 10th... so April should be prepped soon. I would not be shocked and in fact expect to see this has continued. We may still be "above normal" ... or not. But if we are, we will likely be still cooler than everywhere else.

it's a winter pattern in the curvature/geometric orientation, but the sun's forcing it's will ... such that the former is doing so around spring hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. It's been this way all spring thus far. 80 F? doesn't matter... that's just the higher relative hydro and non hydro heights. And the fact that it never lasts longer than a day, no sooner and there's frost on the car tops so quickly - it's like a cutter pattern in January, just dong so with spring heights. Below is being forced by some sort of background/non-linear forcing that we've been plagued with for weeks. It's been the resting/return state ... unrelenting. We're still in winter. We need to get away from this... These blue hydrostatic height lines keep laze faire drooping down as we're speeding toward the solstice and it's gotten rather anachronistically late. We don't have to be 87/63 ... But, lows both predominately and pervasively < 40F, even preceding "warm" afternoons (fake warmth that feels like it's bleeding out) is not going the right way and are just numbers and sensible appeals being created by a zombie winter baseline, hauntingly late. This, while the world is presently in 3rd place warmest ever (relative to date/CC).... too. zomb!

https://phys.org/news/2026-05-rapidly-antarctic-ice-shelves-global.html

Interesting article ... scientists having pitted AI against SRES model systems. It inspires new research ideas for me where this could just be a start. But in so far as what it achieves, the basic finding is that AI is under-selling extreme events, performing demonstratively worse than standard physics-based SRES modelling - particularly with intensity handling. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433

might be a dangerous heat wave toward the end of the month

I know ...but that's the tip off. I mean, there's only so much Earth can do. haha

Ha.... better than "flawless" that's a neat trick... But you know, in quantum mechanics there can apparently be to concurrent states so ... maybe you can have both perfect and perfect Haven't looked at the weekend yet

It's -SAD, or "summer SAD" in psychobabble, Scott. (he/she is not the only one I suspect suffers that in here )

no matter what the species... they're called 'widow makers' for a reason. heh

Thursday's a top 10 ...maybe top 5 day if using these raw FOUS grid numbers ( NAM). 7 kts NW down sloping compression under +3 or +4 850 mb. Mixing probably limited to 900 or 875 but with unadulterated early solar max irradiance at 100%, the sounding will been dry air unstable to 900 feet or so and it will be warmer than standard adiabat in the lowest layer That's approaching flawless.

Norway is a "soft" hard maple wood? What were the circumstances behind the felled tree ? I happen to like the spring flower blossoms of the Norway - they have a nice aroma that reminds me of spring. It sort of fades into Lilac season... It's probably just sentimental nostalgia from having grown up with them. I just didn't have any reason to be aware of any issues with them. They're trees. Pretty yellow and orange pallets in the autumn.

70 so far the wind's a no show here. Perhaps we have a thinly stable layer just yet...

well sign me up

Not sure about "big" per se... but I agree. I explained this yesterday/why... at the time, the signal is/was mostly numeric, with some hint in the actual spatial synoptics of the general ensemble means. The operational models were, and in some cases still are, lagging a bit on that. The 00z operational Euro's extended is now just detecting the change. First to do so. It's got some spuriously oddly wrapped cyclones in the interim running up where it shouldn't but removing those and normalizing out those daily aspects that look engineered by the run .. the height changes paint an 80/60 day-night regime from IND-BOS, in real seasonal move. We'll see if the others begin to do so.

Not sure it matters as an augment or not but it may be worse than usual. It seems we've been through an unusually proficient upwelling circumstance along the interface water where the Labradorian flow abuts the warmer Atlantic. Those 'tuck' waters running parallel to the coast out there are impressively colder than normal according to this source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=sstanom&ortho=1&wt=1 so yeah...intuitively any S or even SSW flow is unusual doctored. I wonder if this also the case NW Pacific. Because from the vantage provided above, ...we are uniquely cold abused. F'n weird... air and sea since last October is like a cold targeting attack right here

Egads.... don't turn the wind onshore this summer.

And here we are ... 63+ already. Full sun. Bit of a breeze but we're probably making 74 for a high so that won't be much of a factor. Tomorrow's warmer yet... So it was 53 here yesterday. Dry though. Grading is subjective silliness but will play ball for a miniute and say it was a C day. Today is an A.

The operational models, all of them ... are lagging behind the mid month warm signal that both the numerical indices, and the extended range ensemble synoptics ( all three) suggest. They are flipping the script after ~ 12th to 15th in there, but the oper versions are feeling pretty strongly that a winter pattern is most appropriate and likely during the entire summer of 2026 as we continue to face an inevitable GW future... The operational versions are oblivious. Reloading a winter mocking pattern foot. They're stuck. It's gotta end at some point... So I guess we'll see.

see...I think it's really just whether the sun is shining for a lot of return engagement in this social media. I've come to find over the years there's a coherent increase in the complaint rate based on whether that is the case. Less about temperature and more about sun. Cloudy and dry.... 'top ranked shit day' this and that. All complaints more than just seem to settle off if the sun blasts through south facing windows I have a stretch of cedar fencing coming in tomorrow ...I had to go out and prep the property line; pretty nasty job toiling in contaminated dirt and old human detritus. This is kitty corner to an urban setting so it's not like rooting around in nature's regolith and bucolic Earth. Pretty sure I was turnin dirt and exhuming plastic fragments from 1972 back there. Gross. But I can say...dry and cloudy at 52 F? It was a helluva bargain over having to do that toily task if were 80 F and humid. ho man. it's all relative I guess

Just be thankful those model solutions from 10 or so days back failed. They had us heading into some kind of a 2005 May redux ... Tomorrow at about 4pm will be like a completely different universe. mid 60s to lower 70s, with partly to mostly sunny. Altho probably a tad breezy for some tastes. Tuesday could be 80... At no time in the 2005 May ordeal did we even see 50 spanning that multi-week captivity.

so, tomorrow we'll be above normal... Not thinking the low dunnite's too cold? The 'core" of the coldest air is passing thru right now. Wind looks to stay up ...defaulting to dry WAA. Has a "steady or slowly rising" vibe there I guess. Then tomorrow, good WSW mixing under surged 850 to 900 mb layer (-3 to +5) probably sends non-south coast tainted HFD-BED areas close to the adiabat. Looks like mostly sunny. 74-ish. Same is true for Tuesday, only add 7 or 8 ... just spit ballin' here based on a cursory eval of charts. But case in point to what I was just saying to John. We're heading into a couple of days that will try and hide the abuse over the last week's piece of overall shitness

Of all subjective takes on our predicament, this is probably the most fairly aligned with the objective truth - heh...the way I see it. Scott and I have had some back and forth about this, but the these months, really since last October - won't get too deeply into that but we've been stuck in some sort of resonate Rossby wave that's reenforcing the coldest possibility relative to ongoing noise, one that frankly still has not changed - have had small percentage day anomalies extremely warm enough to make months more normal in the pure numbers than the actual sensible weather. Basically... imagine the example of 7 days -3, then three days of +8 ... the average is positive for the 10 days. We used to have a saying back in the weather lab days that statistics are the biggest "out-liars" We're being gaslighted by the math for 9 straight fuckum months.

Relative to date, according to Climate Reanalyzer source the running sea ice is presently at a historic low

Ha! Just posted where/whence the is in the cards