Typhoon Tip

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models. The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that. The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved.

This was/is always likely to be nothing more than a climo nor'easter. Pretty much just an autumnal raw rainy time of it, swept along by manageable wind. Less than very remarkable in either case. That should be the baseline expectation with this thing. Yeah, that allows a realistic expectation that someone, some how might over-achieve in either measure, but any observation would be the exceptions to the rule. I still wonder if at the last minute ... a bit of a S contraction in late modeling with less push all the way up. I'm not forecasting that, but I'd be leery of that happening. Either way, the high pressure that's currently parked and giving cause to the current shot across the bow air mass, is retreating due east. SO... it may result less d-drip dose potency than wanted, but your getting a raw east wind whether this thing does that weird oblong thrust up the coast or not. One aspect I'm noticing is just how weak this whole structure is in the H500 evolution. 35 kt jet at 500 mb, parallel offshore the EC doesn't typically inspire all that much. The low pressure is objectively not modeled much lower than 1000 mb - some guidance as low a 995 but the average is higher than that. Even though I said 'climate nor'easter' above, the former is in fact weaker than a climate nor'easter. I'm only giving it that much in deference to that structural anomaly these guidance insist will take place; a bit of an anomalous polarward expansion around the N wall of the cyclone basin.

Red herring's still on the table I'm noticing a weakening trend in the H500s that's very subtle over the last 2 days ( look at 18z two days ago and compare it to this run...etc). Eventual if that continues and it this slips below a forcing threshold it's a laugher. It's just not a convincing signal. But sure why not

It'll end up being a climo nor'easter in the end. most likely ...

who needs hybrids when next up on the docket wrought this

yeah... not sure what the hard empirical averages are but just anecdotally ... it feels about right to get frosts going about now. Freeze? meh ... semantics once that former does get going in my mind. I think - as an aside - it's interesting that the operational Euro and sometimes the GFS ...keep trying to bring winter air masses ( like sub 540 dm!) plumes into GL-SE Canada-NE in their extended ranges. I don't necessarily dismiss the notion of early winter expressions, when both the numerical teleconnectors, and the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensembles have a 2010 sort of -NAO semblance in their Oct 20th+ ranges. But, with the PNA doing an unmanned fire hose flopping around in the guidance underneath, we're also seeing big warm surges rolling underneath and sometimes flipping us the other direction - but very little continuity as that implies.

there's a distinction between 'freeze' vs 'just a frost' ... probably. I mean if you've had a 27 in your back yard, say, but that wasn't general regional result, you're still included in it

Work on getting this far north, first

If that consensus verifies the QPF along the ORH spine and then again along the Berk's will probably over perform. The wind is less a concern west of ~ I95... However, with the oceans being potentially warmer than the air over top, the coastal zone may get bigger gusts/ mixed more momentum.

Humanity doesn't get it... ( just speaking in general here - ) That bold statement has nothing to do with solving the problem of anthropomorphic CC. This existential threat does not have a solution that can be exposed searching for solution through any kind of lens tinted by economics. Humans created a social construct, economics, which has allowed the machinery of human civilization ( with competition strife and other dark tension to put it nicely!), to go on and do what it does... However, the variables in that mathematics are 100% exclusively separated from the physics of CC - yet, we keep seeing these proposals that do not deal with physics of CC, instead approaching a problem of apples with orange solutions. That has to change, absolutely. Or, it will be why species upon species, including human kind, die out. En masse, species' limited by incompetence and/or immorality --> extinction level event. bye

I was up at UML back then, Merrimack Valley, which I know you're familiar with that setting ha. We started getting deep radiationally cold nights with cold still air dead fall of foliage from around peak color dates on... I recall that specifically around mid October, 24 F low type mornings with leafs flitting down. The cold clips the leaf stems, probably because phase change expanding the freezing water fractures. There was new leaf litter directly beneath trees while sloped morning sun cut ineffectively sideways. It was annoyingly cold having to crossing the Univ Ave bridge expanse for early classes that year. The water trickles that run down the granite blocks along the north/shadow side of the aqueduct's fascia had begun to freeze - I recall thinking that must be early behavior. Well before Halloween and by the end of the month ... the days were no longer rising past the upper 40s. The chilly days and shadow side the ice survived, still in tact late in afternoons. Something was in the air that the season to hurriedly leaving warmth beyond. In early November, we did have a day - I think - that made a run at 65, but it did not last. In fact, the next cool down was the first 'smells like snow' air. As it were, we had a mix event that put down 1-2" of sleet mixed with mangled snow and cold rain. That froze to the ground as it went even colder by mid month, when we had another more significant 3-5" sleet and snow event. Temps tanked around then. Clearly a western limb -NAO circulation mode was holding proxy over the temperatures, SE Can and New England. I think if memory also recalls, this was not digging SW into the CONUS very far at that time. It was sort of gradated, with winter here, prior to Thanks Giggedy, while still trying to hold on to mild conditions at Pittsburgh type of thing. But it was pressing... by early December, everyone was bricked earth with a lot places having snow pack all the way to PA. We were some 15" of snow pack, in single digit cold By Dec 10, and the "MRF" model runs were consistently producing snow events out to the end of the 10 day visions. As it were, in the Merrimack Valley, we really lost the ground around Nov 15-ish for good... did not see it until the big winter bust up thaw in latter January. At one time we had 33" on the level snow pack shortly after the "Megalopolis Blizzard". In fact, there was one more coastal that put down 6-8" wet snow over top, and I remember a lot of local media headline warnings to clear snow from any roof loading. *8" of blue glory on a historic pack tends to cause structural failures..etc... But during that last event, there were already signs that a big change was right there in the charts and indices, and well... two Minnesota bombs and 10 days later, all that snow was down to just field puddles, while steam rolled off snow piles. Winter tried to make a comeback in February... and did - but with the memory of the early loaded blitz so awesome, it eclipses the memory some. I remember still getting wet snow events into early April and not liking it that late. But I never do... I'm usually pretty checked out by March.

op appears to be a bit of an amplified outlier with that. It's an odd evolution either way. It's not really part of the main wave circuitry propagating around the hemisphere. It's a plunk in stranded v-max that the GFS seems to then use convective feed-back to feed-back what it needs to formulate a tempest - I'm always a bit leery of those spontaneity looks in the mid range. A suppressed subdued appeal in the ensembles isn't helping. Not impossible tho.

Industrial Revolution ... 'nough said

One could drive from Caribou ME ot Pittsburgh PA and never see a cloud today

Put some thoughts down re that coastal system the Euro/GGEM/GFS are hard selling over in the tropical thread. Little suspect that it's being over-amplified at this range. we'll see -

The global numerical guidance have been formulating a mid and upper level vortex along the M/A for several days worth of cycles... It's unclear why they are so deep at the surface, however...when there's only modest at best baroclinic instability below the 700 mb in that region astride the M/A. You need the fuller vertical integration to succeed a sub 990 mb -type powerful cyclone genesis. mmm, so I'm a bit suspect of the Euro/GGEM/GFS as being too amplified. They could be right .. but I also think a 00z UKMET -type solution is more possible. This is based on a couple of concepts. One, modeling tends to too much amplitude beyond D6 as a standard correction ... They'll lose some 20 ... 30% kinematic layout as that time range comes into the D4s. How many times has the d-drip euphoria of the D8 bomb turned into a 4-6" jack in the winter for example. Two, if there's a hybrid lurking in destiny, it would probably have to come from a weaker initial 500 mb closure than the Euro-like solutions are presently selling. It's almost like 'thermodynamic momentum' Pig extra-tropical gyres have a lot of cooler mass/momentum, so it takes longer to modify the kinematics toward a warm profile. If the initial trigger is a weaker mid level instability, the machinery (outflow aloft) from ongoing festering convection instantiates and starts to feedback with inflow into festering convection ... conversion doesn't have as much to overcome. In some rare cases, a stronger initially cold core gyre may transition, provided the surrounding hemisphere is very supportive ( 1990 "perfect storm" scenario). So it's not impossible - but rareness immediately assumes 'less likely' in this case.

Foundation upon the countless cardiovascular and/or metabolic disorder corpses laid to rest by consumption of refined grain carbohydrate technology, no doubt

It's a drug addiction metaphor. It feels really good ( immediate dividends on growing season...) until it is no longer sustained, and then it's is horror story journey to either a demise, or a helluva lot of hardship to recover.

If by minor changes we mean upslope snow occurrences over a couple ... three different flat windy CAA intervals, with an in between season's first synoptic snow possibility - verification notwithstanding - before Halloween? sure

What does 'RONI will be moderate', mean. RONI is inherently an ONI minus a spatial limitation because the ENSO band is being increasingly isolated by the HC expansion, but also just because the oceanic basins are blazin' away anyway - it's really all fucked up. So a "moderate" RONI implies a decent amount of muting effect? I guess. If we really understand what that means both conceptually and wrt the practical mechanics, the ENSO scalar numbers may rise and fall below a wider and wider gap of threshold/boundary. In other (hypothetical example range) words, we'd going need to observe an ENSO sigma be > +1.5, or < -1.5, to really correlate to the general circulation modes of the mid latitude. Otherwise, it only looks at times like it is correlating, but interceding random variances then break correlation, which denies the assumption of a truly coupled state. My own present intuitive feel for this ( ...seeing as that's worth so much shit, lol ) is that we are not going to see an ENSO breach whatever the lower bound is. That said, the non-warm ENSO is a kind of false La Nina, where the winds behave like a cold phase but it's not really in that mode - good luck parsing out how much in either case. Isn't CC so much fun

Another in these so-called 'fake cold' mornings.. 37 with car top frozen dew, nothing on the lawn though. Meanwhile, 45 was the low up on the hill at Worcester AP. Up to 57 ... goodly bounce is going on. Looking at NAM soundings... should be about 76 if it were July, but with sloped tepid October sun, maybe just a 70 nick. Not sure... it's getting late in the solar shoulder season and we're really only 4 weeks from entering the perennial min so some challenges.

No chance their just parroting what's meme-popularized in the razor sharp cutting scientific insight and intuitively gifted social mediasphere, either, huh

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread. LOL seriously tho.

So ...what exactly was I going for LOL

Okay, I was responding to that post - within which you did not specify "this country" I wasn't aware if there's any back ground context preceding - Having said that... I agree in so much that people don't notice what does not cause them inconvenience more directly than it has. However, the fact that there are examples of this abroad should cause some pause anyway ... but that's perhaps a different discussion.