Typhoon Tip

Euro's most likely massively over amplified with that latter thing, Easter weekend. In fact the other operational models, including it's own ensemble mean ... altogether argue whether it can even exist. Pattern's in the process of modulating away from the +PNA stuff by then. we'll see.. Fledgling warm signal after the 20th though -

If it's those temperatures during that mid month pattern mode ... imagine what those numbers would look like if the pattern foot was actually a warm one. That's how CC is insidious ... it seems to conceal itself from common experience, thus suspends believability, quite proficiently that way. The key is in the word "global" ... the world doesn't end at your horizon.

still winter

still winter ...

jesus what a piece of shit euro run that is... take ugly, and beat it upside the head for an hour -

mm I think April's always just been a particularly loathsome month. I'd be willing to bet that this particular geographic region is in the short list of worst places to be stuck experiencing, with respect to the same latitude, around planet Earth during mid spring.

I'm just happy the front's finally here to scour out the 4 straight days of dungeon skies

No sun ... even worse.

...Continuation from 'Global Average Temperature 2024' ( probably should have started this a couple of months ago - ) January 2025 ~ +1.8C above the pre 1850 level, according to Copernicus February 2025 ~ +1.8C above the pre 1850 level, according to Copernicus March 2025 continued the remarkable trend, being the 2nd warmest March in the history of record, https://phys.org/news/2025-04-global-temperatures-historic-highs-eu.html

Man tomorrow is just gonna be a straight piece of absolute shit cold misery. … in full April sun

Good. That was the intent

there's another school of reason that they're being gutted in order to make america great again, to the point where they don't have the bandwidth to dink around with geographic outlines anymore... hmm?

No

Telecon throws the entire month away April’s the month of the false signals - that’s about ur only hope … that the rug gets pulled on the cold signal, but a truly massive -WPO (even looks like a standing wave ) is dominating the hemisphere. It’s transitively sending negative wave space over the eastern continent. I’m seeing this repeatedly manifesting in the realized charts as switching between a N stream Ontario, pulling out and exposing +PNA underneath to take its place when it does. Basically pick ur dildo but one way or the other you’re getting fucked… In short, it doesn’t look good, but again maybe the WPO block breaks down in the hemisphere starts the modulate ahead of schedule who knows

12z nam came in snowy ... in two pulses, too. Flat wave tomorrow morning running out S of us tomorrow morning, and then associated with that weird arctic boundary/cyclone knot that brings -12C 800 mb air (btw..jesus christ), the early Tuesday.

You said "everything"

Yeah... pretty sold warm look after the 14th here ...

Interesting... an actual reasonable post from Tolland for once -

Low pressure/cyclones do a lot of damage at times and are impressive enough. But it seems the truly awesome flood events require these stalled frontal scenarios. Lodge in a boundary for 3 days and send a laminar flow of high PWAT air over the top? 'Noah! I'm sorry I castigated you ... save me.' Mixing in some solar heating in the spring along the lifting edge just to be evil ... ... rooves torn asunder crumbling under bridges ...

I was just coming in here to say.... WOW annihilated 4 to 6" with rad still lit up with deep dbz returns training and training. Didn't we just go through this last year down there?

Now you will... for the next 5 to 7 years, before you see that again.

Every model except the Euro suggest some grass and car top whitening N of the Pike when Monday dawns. Fast moving wave on the boundary bringing insignificant amounts, but major insult to spring/warm enthusiasts. The Euro does have some bump on the front but it's so minor it only has an ANA virga sky and probably nothing reaching the ground. That's an impressive cold shot mid week, too. There's been a recent -EPO burst... relaying into a -NAO, that's basically where that air mass sourcing -it's probably real. But short lived... it's rolling out by the end of the week. And then we'll see if the wet ( not white ) nor'easter is for real. Monday may be the last opportunity to see snow at least in the air, until the new routine next fall of Halloween cold snap snow before the big Xmas warm up

Man... tomorrow's a good day to play hookie if going by the NAM synoptics. +4C at 850 mb and pretty much 90+% sun, with light NW d-slope gradient flow... You really have to kiss some kind of god's ass for providing those metrical set ups in any given April. machine numbers are mid 60ish BDL-FIT-ASH but hmm... I'm willing to bet that's a MOS buster day by at least a couple. Another opportunity to test MOS highs during unrestricted heating on the summer side of the equinox. If the clouds are more than the RH fields are currently progged, then okay -

warm front's nowhere to be found though ...looks like a hair ball puked up from cold cat down there

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-australia-hottest-months.html