Typhoon Tip

Yeah go team save Scott’s sanity. Ha

18 ZGFS looks pretty good for Saturday …has the front pounding PF’s butt but it’s warm sector southeast of there

I guess any time you got a Packman low eating its way down a warm front you can gets some repeaters ... yeah maybe

ha ... I didn't mean to imply I thought it looked that way either - I was asking if you personal attitude would improve if the drama in severe were added back ... I'm guessin' yes?

how about if it's training severe ... nickle hail 3 times with incredible rain rates and overlapping multi-pulser CG bombs ...otherwise still 76/72-like

I've come to find that the error goes in both directions ... They'll error too high on the regional totals ( actually), while down to a handful of towns and counties get Leominstered Over did the synoptics, but under did the local thunderstorm - but since the latter is inside the regional bounded area, it falsely props up the regional result. So two wrongs does make a right -

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-spain-highest-temperature.html https://phys.org/news/2025-06-uk-registers-warmest-weather.html

Good song

Heh... despite my conservative tone this morning - which I still suspect is warranted - the NAM arrives with a 90 F at least implicated in the FOUS grid 54000492730 -2403 212012 71261912 I don't expect anyone to know what these numerics are supposed mean - mainly because I've written, with pain staking detail, what those definitions are at least 20 times ( ). Anyway, that profile for 18z on Wednesday would 89 to 91 over down town streets and parking lots...ranging to 82 or 84 where the hill people down play heat. sarcasm aside ...I'm not sure the NAM physics has smoke contamination built in ? maybe Brian or someone knows.

Folks probably don't give a ratz ass how and why it rains on weekends at this point. The frustration doesn't care... But, I'm seeing this weekend's rain potential as more typically of summer - not being inundated with cold and NE flow type bs fwiw - There may be a warm/stationary front sort of stalled ALB to PSM type axis, like the current blend of the Euro/GFS, and associated rain/thunder ... More typical of 42 deg N latitude in early June. That setup is normal synoptic frontal traffic this time of year. We get fronts... it's normal during both outstanding weather years, and piece of shit years, and all qualities in between. Cannot remove passing fronts, cool or warm, at this time of year. It would in fact be abnormal to have a big ridge anomaly with the westerlies and fronts all displayed way w-n ... If/when that ever sets up, that's more of a July and August thing. I get it that 12 weeks in a row of rain on weekends is some kind of maddening fractal ... I think the GGEM is full of shit... I'd take a blend of the Euro and GFS. If S of said axis above ... humid and warm with thunder in region. If your N of that, like Scott was saying ... rain intervals with thunder on Saturday. But mild-like. I would not take present depiction as gospel, anyway. The boundary could reposition N or S by 100 mb from this range.

it's been interesting observing this unseasonable trough protect our region from smoke. The larger synoptic circulation associate with has kind of rampart the outside environment from getting into the interior trough axis. Folks may wanna keep in mind that today is the last day of said protecting... Not sure how/if smoke may factor into these "warm" days this week. MOS/machine guidance appears reasonable to me - normally I'd go a tick or two above during a recovery period in early Junes but trend to always be on the lowest side of correlations ( since last December really... ) always seems to find a way to perpetuate itself and this rendition it grabs a hold of smoke to perhaps keep us from making the illustrious 90 mark Wed/Thur haha. I mean like this spring's comically deducing means to prevent heat from materializing - despite the verified numbers ( relatively...)

mm mentioned this yesterday but this thing is really sub-standard synoptic in scale. It's between meso and synoptic .. in Met we used to refer to that range as 'meso-beta' scaled. There's an intense rain ball over SE NY with warning headlines... and then these spokes like being on the east side of a tropical system racing N - meant as metaphor ...don't get your buns lubed with mustered. Anyway, the models appeared yesterday to be more spread out/interpretive over what was actually happening at the time, and so far that's translated up to being a more localized impact. One other aspect, we were commenting on the depth of the low pressure... I think this whole construct was misleading a bit... The low was developing in a region that was already 998 mb/negative regional anomaly with a broad surface trough in place. You take that initial condition and the low goes down 10 mb and suddenly you got something in the mid 980s... but it's really 1000mb low

At present it's an odd a system. Both sat and rad trends are decoupled from the surface frontal tapestry ...which features a 1002 mb low, but in whole displaced some 70 mi SE of the tightly wound position suggested by these other conventional observation methods, and where the deep layer q-g forcing would really more favorably place that low - over roughly Clarksburg, WV this hour, smearing into PA. I'm thinking part of that is because this S/W got a tremendous convectively coupled feedback when it west of it's current position. It's almost like a blown up lamphoon ... meso-beta scale low that 'acquiring' synoptic/baroclinic profiling. If that's true it's likely transition anyway as it trundles toward the Tri State region, maybe "capturing" the actual low once it establishes real jet. mechanics.

next week may or may not offer a heat wave... I figure for the 80s mid week, but the ceiling is higher so we may manifest that more obvious as we get closer. we'll see. 12z GFS ends the run with big heat implication. Full bird SW/Sonoran release event... talkin 576 to 581 thickness from New Mexico to Boston Harbor. 360+ hours, so nothing can go wrong with that of course heh

I wonder if this is late in the year/climo for snow on June 1 at up there. I wonder if it is late in the year/relative to CC climo for that matter

Seems to be the case,yup.

Ukmet's a 90 Wed-Thur

Warmer Tues+ on these GFS/CMC runs

Yeah, the Euro's dramatically yawing between synoptic concepts wrt that pinch low formulation... Doesn't lend to confidence it knows what to do, when the 12z run just yesterday morning had zero impact from that feature along with +2 SD heat intrusion to our region, and then the immediate new 00z had that thing completely shutting it all down and a 0 SD heat intrusion... The GGEM has that pinch low too, but it conserves just enough progressive w-e aspect to formulate it far enough away ( and moving E) to not be a factor here mid week. Believe it or not...it may be a compromise and better solution ... at least through 144 hours. The GFS is even more so progressed away with it. However, I hate the run overall. Longer read: It seems to be fighting the non-linearity of the teleconnection signal - which is ridging over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. It's got modest height anomalies, but it won't expand them into the correlation extent - meaning it's low balling it. It's drilling the westerlies through the top of the ridge latitudes, limiting the ridge expanse. Meanwhile, I'm noticing the CAG low genesis ( TC ) down there, which is a feature not uncommon to the -PNA summer, whence ridging formulates over the eastern conus this creates favorable genesis period in the Caribbean gyre region at low latitudes underneath. Near the Yucatan Pen and Bay/Camp. etc. So It's like the GFS is seeing the the whole scope, but is shirking the ridge part of it. The GFS has about .1% w-e stretched bias at all times ( sarcasm but true-ish) at all times - definitely used to, but has improved with that progressivity bias some over the years of upgrading the model. This strikes me as possibly interfering just enough albeit subtle, nonetheless.

Manitoba is apparently on fire. You can already see the smoke aggregating in the atmosphere on satellite across the continent. It's not clear where these plumes will end up, if so ... how much they may effect temperature. I'm (personally ) not sure what the science/present consensus verdict is on that. Intuitively it seems to me that it would dim potential above some particulate density threshold ... Plume height might also play a role.

there is no altered data.. stop it.

This is recreational whining in here... I mean there's nothing wrong with this weather. There was objectively nothing wrong with it either - the subjective side? it comes off as support group complaining.

mm... not so. I'm not saying Kevin had or has any sort of special insight buuut ... most of the time it's 88 F at BDL-FIT-ASH, it's not much higher than 80 above 700 or so foot elevations. If it's a true heat dome, with tall soundings...than it you'll get 88 up there, and 96 at those lower elevations. So saying 80-88, even if by dumb luck ( LOL ) sounds like paying deference to both.

Oh, Will doesn't seasonal this engagement based on user contribution and content... He leaves because he doesn't give a ratz azz about warm weather climo - unless it's ( probably...) something truly extraordinary, which this land that god forgot region of the planet doesn't seem to incur enough to waste his time. That's why the man opts out. Believe me ...there's just as much and probably actually more so in the way of bonehead squabbling and tedious nimrodery that goes on in the winter, too.