Typhoon Tip

here comes thursday, friday, shitterday, sunday ...

That'd be awesome... "What's cursive?" "You'll have to research, won't you." so in additional writing the paper in general, they gotta do that, too. And if they don't turn it in on Monday, they'll get the various corporal discipline tactics.

'wtf is cursive', right?

Sea surface anomaly distributions are susceptible to local time-scale (vastly shorter than 'climate') wind stressing patterns. Those variances may redistribute (warm)(cool) either above or below the longer term baseline, but such interludes seldom represent the longer-termed systemic state.

Classic omega pattern owing to spring tendency here

Cool ... looks like it was just updated, too

"Feel" ? I wonder if that is a subjective based reporting - like, population reported. So all the darker squares are like "23-and-me" genetically connected to the same lineage as Kevin in other words.

that was more likely something dietary that far away lol

mmm I'm on your side with this sentiment, but unfortunately ... it looks like it wants to claim this weekend, too. Sunday may get better ... at 4pm. heh.. I dunno. Maybe downslope flow will offset that cold anus whirling around the GOM? Monday is shockingly looking unobstructed skies ...i.e., clear, and has been that way for a week or more of modeling, in all sources. A true ironic rarity for the month of Asshole ... perhaps as rare a feet as an Eclipse.

Well ... one way we could look at it is that it's not technically padding jack shit. This is spring. Not winter. heh prolly doesn't offer much solace or consolation. .

enjoy it ... it may be the last time any of us see snow below ... say I dunno 1200 or 1400 feet, until the perfunctory November 4th 3-5" before winter turns into another crapper. A wind blown scarp of can't seem to snowisms, which will be associated 100% to a climate change that pisses everyone off in this peculiar forum of denial while not denying - very strange. Thank you thank you... This storm seems to have bottled up the remainder of that -EPO burst cold from two weeks ago when looking at the various ensemble means 850 mb evolution. We go from this pool of deep-ish anomaly into more of a oscillatory pattern swinging between seasonally cool to seasonally warm air masses. Call it seasonal+ I don't see more significant positive departures though perhaps until 20th.

I was wondering if we'll start generating growth in the boundary pause - start cooling the BL below the after storm inversion ... squeezing out street lamp pixie

tonight might be fun on the roads outside of that warm secluded inner occlusion. Settle off to 31.5 instead of this 33 .. 34 stuff.

Ha. Just feelin' snarky this morning. By the way, I don't know who said what, nor when ...? If you were thinking I was responding to any one person, I was just skimming content. The idea of "people denying because they can" is something that just bothers me about the culture we now all live and breath within in general - it's a sociological pathology. It's bad out there. I blame the Internet, really. It's giving a podium to those with limited education, clearly lower virtuosity awareness in whether to speak without having learned information. Or, they are just not very intelligent due to circumstance/life history ... yet think they know. They come in different flavors, and socially recognized echelon is no indicator, either. Hailing from wherever, they believe their own righteous indignation (as though CC is some kind of violation of their rights and entitlement) must be just as meaningful as accredited source, with all the import. Sound familiar? It's like we're all showing up to the 'debates' with 'participation trophies' as our PHDs. Why that is a problem is that all human being engender conviction when others gather around their ideology. It's just the way we are. The consensus must be true, and so on... And the internet is linking together the plebeian wit; creating a consensus, it foments whatever narratives it needs - narratives seldom reconcile objectively reality. I wildly digress. Some of that is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that is probably hard to sense without the necessary sarcastic tone of actual voiced delivery... etc. But like all sarcasm, there's a soupcon of truth in there, too. I don't deny CC ( personally ) at all, myself. But you know ... it's not about whether one denies or doesn't? Oh, the debate carries on, ...but it's futile. It's real, and it is mathematically demonstrated/proven that anthropogenic forcing is playing a roll; all data included, a very big and undeniable roll. That's not alarmist, per se. That's fact. But therein links back to the sardonic paragraph above: Objective reality is still interestingly a problem for people. Let me just say the short version, they are being enable to do so. It's really a sociological problem. Fix the sociological abstinence to acceptance, fixes everything ... But, the same reason for the CC, is simultaneously preventing people from sensing the reality of CC at a very necessary personal scope - 'personal' because obviously they are unwilling if no apprehensive without some sort or form of direct proof. I hypothesize the reason society ended up that way is by what I call 'multi-generational convenience addling' It's basically all that is emerged since the Industrial Revolution since it took over as the foundation upon which modern civility and all of its practices came into being. Being protected inside the Industrial Revolution bubble ( and I use bubble for metaphor of fragility, despite the conceit of all the industrial farts that inflate 'the bubble'), reciprocated into successive generations over the last 150 years ... we've bread a peoples that are not particularly very desirable frankly ( hahaha). Life inside the industrial bubble affords lesser/no consequence for poor decisions, because it offers too many recourse' ... Rolling that impression over successive generations over the last 150 year, two things happens. One is recently papered/demonstrated that the average persons IQ is 20 pts lower than those prior to the Industrial Revolution. I read that paper and thought ...gee, that fits my 'denial because they can' rage rather nicely. hahaha. It's true though. The other thing that happens is, people don't believe in the dead end warning of CC and the implication of what it would mean, because every part of their being was fabricated by an entitlement to an abundance of recourse whenever faced with failure. The resonance of a 'dead end and dire warning' simply can't transmit through their wiring. It's a fascinating feed-back argument is what it really is... If you took a father in 1750, and showed him data that said if he didn't cultivate a certain way, his kids won't eat tomorrow, chances are he studies that text pretty damn closely rather than knee- jerk reacting in defiance of it.

There is spectrum of denial forms. At the heart of it all, people would stop all of it ... if CC caused them pain. End of story. As I've opined at length, in the past, the simple version is that people are not suffering consequences that actually cause them discomfort for the perspectives ...more importantly, the decisions they make based upon those perspectives. When they do, they will immediately desist all behaviors that cause the discomfort. - and denying CC --> causing CC, will go away. Unfortunately, it will be too late. Welcome to the this world's reality-explanation for the Fermi Paradox.

Keep getting lulls where it’s not doing anything Radar looks shredded

It was funny friend. ha... I really don't care - seriously.

Of course ... no sooner do I post that and the Euro comes out to directly point out those differences. I don't like the fact that this thing "might" be too closed off too soon. It really deepened aloft unusually quickly and coiled up around itself too early. They become donked tired pos after doing that. A run like this Euro decides to make the system more annular looking like that .. It's like the Euro wants to ride the line between typical April climate 500 mb lows, versus the GFS that says there's just enough to get something more interesting done.

Yeeeah first and foremost I'm trying to be objective..heh. I'm not sure I was being pessimistic just noting stuff. In the same vein, the models are trying to give some mechanic back here in the short range. The deep layer trough closes off too soon ( still ) for liking. It reaches a rather potent depth for April 3 climo all the way down to 520 dm centered ~ SW lower Michigan. It then fills over the next 12 hours back up to 532 dm or so, centered over N PA... But then a new center carves down to 526 dm openning up over Albany, after which it moves E across SNE as a height fall region in the midst of the ongoing CCB hosing SE NH. That interval is coincident with the overnight stuff 03 to 12z Wed nigh into dawn on Thur. It may have been more or less hinted prior runs, but its more obvious now. These "edgy" spring systems are sensy to nuances like that and can make or break the sensible profile of storms.

yeah I mean I was thinking along the lines of UVM

at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down.

Yeah there is ..it's called a 101 F at the surface ...hahahaha

I think you pulled out an important aspect about this system's evolution on your previous post there. It's something I also noticed a couple of days ago but I haven't been able to engage Anyway, this system bottoms out aloft way west over Indiana/Ohio ... More typically, bigger kahuna event's parental trough bottoms out closer to the EC .. over the Del Marva to NY Bite region of the M/A... This one limps to the east coast over the next day. Heights have in fact shallowed by some 6 to 10 dm in the core by the time it's over LI at 500 mb. There's definitely a less than ideal mechanical timing with the total synoptic story of this thing.

This is exactly what I was visualizing when I took in the guidance over the last 24 hours this morning. This looks like an "unfortunately poor time juggernaut waste" due to seasonal forcing. Not lecturing at anyone here just op ed: ... folks need to realize that it's not just the in situ thermal circumstances on the storm chart day(s), it's the fact that everything leading up to it has been processed by now nearly two weeks past the vernal equinox. The arrival to this state of affairs, back on January 20th ( say ...) would likely just be a colder much more conducive to frozen event profile with far less consternation. Given the larger synoptic everything ... this was a massive signal - but for what? It was unclear from the start and here we are... This looks like light cold rain that flips to sleet for a while ... then back to light rain that flips to soaked cotton balls (once the 2ndary gets going) whenever it comes down hard enough. Ground melting almost equals the fall rate though. It just looks like a protracted cold misery with reducing redeeming aspects at this point that model blend. Yuck. The AI Euro version was the most interesting 00z version I saw... It had everyone N of the south coast safely < 0 C at 850 mb for the entire duration, with a 985 to 990 mb low transit along the climatological snow route, and 2+" of liq equiv QPF. It spans 2 days, so much of that would be at night.

2ndary takes over it’ll truncate the elevated warm tongue.