Typhoon Tip

Tomorrow may actually be the first day that qualifies as uncomfortably warm and human. new NAM has low 80s with quite high DPs

and if it works...maybe they'll create one for the Mecca/Hajj pilgrimage next ... The last one ended up with 200+ deaths and some thousand(s) of casualties directly related to heat.

you may be in such an exceptional minority ... that you may actually be the only person in this social media-space that actually thinks that. but even so, it's not "womp womp" when it's so vastly less than the previous run LOL

You should instead highlight the fact that it was weaker overall and not nearly as implicating as the prior run

Right .. simply put... climate is an addition of all events/ the number of events. That's it. But if one understands what that means in practical terms, it means that the extent of extreme is thus hidden. That is why the statistical Standard Deviation is important - you observe all departures from normal, add them, and divide by the number of those occurrences. We call that one standard deviation abnormality" so... if a modeled and/or specific event is say doubling that number, that is a 2 STD event... This goes on... such that a 3, 4 ...5, n, get exceedingly more rare. When we talk about a "synergistic" synoptic heat event - LibertyBell, I miss guided you... this is what I was referring to before; I shouldn't have crossed that up with the 'heat burst' phenomenon you find in the AMS - these are typically more than 1 STD. But they don't have to be... That's the thing - attribution is always lurking. That's why I suspect a better metric is in the d(frequency)

I guess the upshot of this particular miasma smearing over the ma and ne regions this morning is that it's based upon on S flow. So it's not cold. It's actually relatively balmy outside... here anyway. I get it that y'all gettin' bombed down in RI and SE Ma this morning with training heavy rain...but having DPs 55-60 is a different more tolerably type of annoyance than having dps be 38 to 42 in said rain. - some of this may also normalize/improve as the sun starts modulating the sounding .. we'll see. The models seemed to have busted on the amount of measurable that has taken place over E/SE zones...?

I reworded some of that to make the point clearer. The impact of these is like everything in nature ... meaningful along a spectrum. If the impact slips below what I called an "affective curve" (how meaningful it is perceived to be is unfortunately limited almost entirely by it's affect on us) we risk missing its inclusion in ongoing attribution science - which I believe is not a good thing. I don't argue that 96/70 may be a problem for those lacking acclimation. Unfortunately ... the reality is that it doesn't mean an CC-attributable event did not take place. What it all boils down to is that there is a difference between a hot spell, vs one of these synergistic heat bombs going off. These latter event types are a phenomenon that ... probably always have been in history, but are increasing in frequency. Moreover, at a more sophisticated/discrete study, they likely have value in understanding why/how CC will become an increasing threat. For example, they are not [likely] limited in spatial scale. There is the Pacific NW event in 2021. There is France -scaled event in the early 2000s. There is the 'micro' event that is just up there in that region of the NP, now.... Ranging to the whole world in 2023 These are all variable in their affecting ... So, you see what's going on there ( rhetorical ); these synergistic heat wave -related variability, in both size and actual thermal magnitude, make them very dangerous.

increasingly more suggestive of 'synergistic heat burst' It's probably not really headline-worthy enough, because we're not talking heat that injures. However, the kind of stark contrast against background climatology (standard deviation), as well... far exceeding the leading indicators for the actual event, appear to qualify this. The impact does not necessarily - or should not ... - qualify them; the phenomenon clearly can be numerically definable. I feel it is an important distinction because 'attribution' is probably more commonly taking place than the observation frequency, because they simply are below the "affective curve" and thus may not be readily definable/noticed.

I suspect the Euro is overzealous ... Mostly for philosophical reasons. Firstly, it's not impossible. In 2002, I saw noodly mangled aggregates mixing in with general cat paw rains with tree swaying NE gusts on May 22nd where I was living at the time, Waltham, Ma. It was carrying on from a storm that looked a lot like what this Euro run was selling on the 00z. So yeah ... it can happen. I just would feel better about that if it were all D4 ...not D8 There's just longer termed ( like years worth actually - ) observation of modeling biases and behavior that would argue the Euro could certainly by over phased at this range - and it is a phased scenario in that run. All models - in fact - are charging the hemisphere with -NAO. The NAO domain overall is not really very well handled by any guidance, particularly out in time. Compounding that aspect is the fact that is still spring, albeit getting into later spring ... but we're still passing through a higher error time of the year. So the short version of this paragraph is that the NAO has to be first very accurately outlooked at a range whence it seldom is, and doing so at a time of the year when it almost never is... Good luck Euro. Plus, it's not different than in January, when the model has a D8 bomb then ... You're better off with hinting of a storm in that range, and then having it emerge into those indicators passing thru D5s ... Having said all that... the trade off is not a balmy glorious time of it. The westerlies are torpedoing later in the year than normal, with lots of vigorous waves propagating coming across the country, while the uncertainties with the NAO ...that does not mean "no" NAO. It just means that how it relates/influences is unlikely to be precisely how the Euro ends up with all that from this range. The 00z/06z GFS blend is probably a better solution with more progressivity and a just keeping things moving along, but the westerlies overall are suppressed S of normal so...it's not sending any warm vibes.

they all are ... Welcome to attribtution f'ing up circulation-climate

hm another day i was not prepared for the shear gorgeousness ... I thought for sure we'd be grunged in but the sun's been out since 10:30 more than not and it's clear to 75 now

It could all be bullshit anyway... You know, the NAO is supposed to be a part of all that - which in reality and wave transmittance means it's actually the pacific but we'll go with it. Anyway, the NAO's are often over sold at D7-10 ..so I'm not too put off by it all until I see that actually make it into D5 range.

So is the GFS ... at least in the 500 mb - not bothering to look that surface synoptics with any GFS solution, until it is perfect at 500 mb, because this model will at least excuse imagined ... shit stain the outlook unless you are parked under 700 dm Venetian ridge node - but this run opts for more of a broad trough as opposed to stem winding a vortex thru the nor'easter climo axis'

GGEM's trying to improve ... it's tryin'

It's been time for about 7 years ... just imho -

I hope you realize ( i'm sure you do.. ) that I'm just messin' with you

Here's the GFS's rendition ..

So according to Copernicus ERA5 data, May 2025 continues the incredible streak since 2023 of the world being under a veritable climate rotisserie lamp. As recently as May 9, 2025 ( last week...), that day came in as the hottest May 9th since 1940 - before which is beyond their historical event horizon so who knows. Yet, despite that warm soothing predicament, the Euro is doing this as near by in time as 132 hours from 00z: This has been going on for 20 something years ... whence yeeeah, we have above normal like everywhere else, but we are never AS above normal as everywhere else - apparently so. Plus this shit above. This above is yet another snow in May if it occurs. It counts. It's in our Meteorological neighborhood. It's yet another in these bizarre ( no doubt attribution -related some how, some way ) latter spring North America seasonal rollback patterns we've been observing. I've seen packing pellets and or actual snow events in ...shit, lost count how many Mays since 2000. In the decades prior ... almost never. Something about particularly the eastern continent/mid latitudes, is getting picked on in the total hemispheric circulation tendencies, as a cold dumpster. We'll see if above makes it through the deamplitude gauntlet at D5.. but just the fact that it's showing up in the model physics is confirmation enough. And Ineedsnow ... if you would please resist the urge to place a Like or 100% emoji in the bottom right corner of this post. It is not something that is intended to jerk off your obsession for demolishing summer, or to be celebrated because it leans in that direction. Something is wrong.

revenge? you may be 77 F today while we down here as nearby as rt 2 are just under the edge - in fact, I can see the clear sky along the n horizon. not even.. just below the tree line. but the sun is a dim ball, at times totally obscured overhead and sat confirms the predicament. if i were Kevin I'd be reporting this 'yet another day above guidance with sun' because of my committed razor sharp adherence to objective reality .. it's trying to be sort of mild. by strict numbers ... we may even be above normal relative to hour of the day. 59 here at 9:10am probably should be more like 54 at this time of year or something? i don't know if climate drills down to the hour that way though. might be an interesting project for an asperger case... but yesterday we bumped 73 ... not likely going that warm if we don't erode back.

gotta be honest ..wasn't spectin' a 73 F mainly sunny afternoon here. looked like a bd screen door slammin' flag snappin grunge off Labrador's nuts sack annoying set back. do we suspect at least some grunge tomorrow?

That's tied to acclimation just sayn' If you stick with them, after few days to week or two you're bio adapts

maybe we can snow on Memorial day for the latest official date of a butt boning ever -

man .. I don't know what the 12z runs are going to look like just yet rollin out here but those overnight operational runs doubled down on warm failure... particularly days 5 thru 11. OOgly! There was a day out there where there is an east flow anomaly along 40 N that extends from S of Nova Scotia clear to Denver... like, the whole hemisphere is raging in a cold summer canceling orgy

77 40 deg rise achieved

There's an underlying/not well realized forcing that is somehow by physical cause being suppressed in the operational runs. The -PNA, with an out-of-season EPO, along with a flat/and/or E limb NAO, are all demonstrative in the numerical values from all three major ensemble systems, EPS/GEFs/GEPs... Basically a -2 SD PNA, with nominal fluctions +/- wrt the other indices. Without any intervening forcing, that should layout out eastern N/A ridging. This numerical teleconnector spread/outlook has been in the cast for over a week's worth of daily mass-field computations. Yet these operational member versions just refuse to ever map a pattern in their respective mid and extended range charts that fully occupies what the spread description above says they should be... - this I am convinced is to enable Ineedsnow to torment Kevin, all the while ... he doesn't realize that in having all that numerical basis for heat, being suppressed by the operational versions ... is both highly unstable and probably just a matter of time before there's a ridge blossom. Or not... it is true that sometimes these telecons will divorce from the operational runs and vice versa. When that happens, given time they will tend to converge. The question is, do they converge into this year without a summer game interminably until we finally get hot for one week in early September? Or, do we suddenly explode hot.