Typhoon Tip

Re the fantasy range GFS solution above. you know, there are two types of fantasy. Those that don't look even physically very plausible - if physically not impossible. Then there are those that look physically plausible - because they are both physically possible, but fit some sort of back ground (non-linearity) about the flow behaviors. This is like pattern zeitgeist ? It fits the spirit of the times. That solution above does. We keep repeating these +PNA foot prints, perhaps masked at times. Anyway, we've seen this sort of turn out mid latitude snow or snow supportive synoptic modes some half of the Octobers since 2000 - as an aside ... prior to that approximate yesteryear, much rarer was that ever the case. Something switched around then to make October 10 - TG holiday span more prone to this - we all know what that is so won't get into it. This is part and parcel why I feel our best odds at expressing winter being a front loaded one. There's background tendencies to fire off blocking early ...and this fits that leitmotif as discussed, as a possible harbinger of a proficient blocking autumn into early winter. That's not me trying to sell November/December 1995, either. Really just what it says... our best odds at expressing winter - perhaps at all. I don't have faith in winters anymore, as being sort of Currier&Ives nostalgic reduxing, due to this gradient saturation issue. It's hard to block during the DJF period, when the gradient becomes seasonally extreme, because in more basic physical sense, fast flow does not go around short(er) curved surfaces if the flow exceeds the critical velocity threshold - it can't because the centrifugal acceleration exceeds the Coriolis and that opens it back up... that basic physical premise has become a delimiter during recent (decades) of winter, with increasing tendencies. 2015 was unique ... as an afterthought. That was resonance at a huge scale. The entire WPO-EPO-N/A arc was in on it, and so... such large spatial domain doesn't have short radial geometry - the flow can remain fast around a -WPO/-EPO loading pattern that way.

This is interesting from the MJO desk/CPC "...support for the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG) event during October." Just inferring from hemispheric mode one would guess CAG vulnerability - wasn't looking but a corroboration from the MJO folk adds to that. Notable risks are TC's. Opal and I suspect Sandy ( just for examples) were born out of CAG gyres, just to name a couple.

I'd add to this discussion that these indices are also increasingly non-resonant. Meaning, they are less (apparently...) physically forced into a quasi-stable mode. The reason for that is related to the increased winter time gradient in the whole sale integral of the subtropical to Ferril latitude band. Faster basal flow velocities sends the Roulette wheel spinning more frequently - metaphor.

You have to consider the total geology of Earth in the model/differences comparing the two oceanic basins. The NE Pacific arc is blocked off from the arctic by Alaska and the continental rise - identified by Aleutian archipelago of islands. The arctic waters are prevented from intermingling. Additionally, the NW Pacific blocks the arctic due to NE Siberia. There is a gap between, but it is very shallow - the Bering Straight. In fact, ...over the last ice advance cycle of the greater Pleistocene epoch, it is theorized that the ocean levels, having fallen crucial distance, exposed a 'land bridge' that assisted animal migrations between Asia and North America. Many ancient native America human populations are believed to have arrived via the land bridge route during these lower oceanic level time spans.. Anyway, that sub-surface geology blocks the Pacific from establishing an "AMOC" of its own. Compared to the N Atlantic Basin, where deep oceanic floor abruptly abuts the Greenland landmass. Very cold water due to intermingling with the Arctic happens there, where it really can't happen in the far N Pacific Basin. The cold water is heavy ... it falls to the bottom of the ocean - organized in 'chimneys', these tubes of very cold water plummet to the ocean floor. The falling motion pulls the surface water into replace, due to conservation of mass; and since their is less obstacle to fluid flow, S, that encourages a surface motion that is preferential from the Equator toward the N. The ongoing pattern of wind stress and Coriolis then organizes the large scaled anti-cyclonic motion of the Basin. The Gulf Stream and the Japan currents of either Basin are artifacts of the same wind stressing and Coriolis balancing, but the Atlantic has this AMOC machinery that the Pacific does not. Because of all this... the Pacific distribution of upper oceanic heat content is shallower, thus .. can be thermally modulated faster. Might be a little counter-intuitive when knowing that the Pacific is larger than the Atlantic by a several factors of total mass and surface area, but AMOC has a vastly deeper Z-coordinate in the total integral.

Keep in mind… We’re getting towards the time of the year where above normal may not necessarily be “warm” in the sensible weather. This relativity is especially true when you get towards Halloween. As an aside, the first week of October may have some exceptionally anomalies, but we’ll see… Also +.01 is above normal That chart doesn’t mean you’re gonna roast because it’s extra dark red

They're definitely doing more ... just by virtue of acknowledging the problems. They're also - from appearance alone ...granted - solving the problems they can solve more easily, first. I perfectly valid longer term stratagem. But is a strategy nonetheless. Contrasting, America has turned their faces toward the wrong side of history ( science, much less objective reality - ) in their - apparent - seeking of comfort. It's really a populist movement based on a combination of fear and anger: two of Satan's favorite weapons against humanity ... ha ('not religious; that's just dark humor) It's not even climate that causes them pain. It was the other aspects of pure humanism that sent this spiraling decay of responsibility. It's a quirk in history that it conflicts with the climate doom awareness. If the Libs didn't yank WOKEism into something that's clearly biologically unsound ... and start Karenizing hard-ons and ruining lives, and even pushing that agenda into formal legislation .. they would not have marginalized huge voting block populations to the point of anger. That's why we're in a veritable teetering with a fascist overthrow - which in itself is fantastically being ignored. This whole morass blocks any agenda having to do with climate consideration in America, because, of the two, Climate does not appeal as the real danger to every days. They other stuff does. I just want to say something here in capital, embolden letters to signify that yes ... I am yelling at at these consummate dumb mother fuckers walking the earth among those that are trying to spare in the wrath of man's idiocy. Temperature rises associated with climate change does not cause species extinction, TEMPERATURE RISE HAPPENING !FASTER! THAN SPECIES CAN ADAPT is causing the problem Lol... just so we're clear. There really seems to be a huge variance in intellectual capacity. I used to think this was a moral problem. Like the "wont' happen in my life time" wasn't bad enough, right? Yeah there's that sentiment going on out there but ... mmm, that's not it. There's a problem with capacitance in multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional comprehension. Lot of long words to just simply say, simpletons, which unfortunately are greater than 50% of the population density, just can't understand much of this. It would be okay if that was the only problem ... sort of. I mean at least morally. But the problem is, they are dumb fucks that instead of learning, choose the easy road of toeing the line with likes of which have 0 qualifications for rendering advice and truth on the matter; unwittingly and without conditional objective analysis, aligning with with both moronic and immoral leaders. This is not very likely to end well.

not after today ...? I suspect they can move the means dial a lousy .1 when they're like 82/63 and something like +15 hahaha hyperbole. ( to lazy to look at anything specific at the moment)

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit. man. All agencies in on it too. You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO. Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin' ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory. It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month. If this were July we'd really really roast. Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

That's a goodly warm signal showing up there thru October 10ish. It's gotten coherent in the operational runs as well - in fact, they led the ens derived telecon spread as the latter had been flatter. Now both with +height anomaly. we'll see. Not sure on amplitude but seein' as we've seen 80 between Nov 1 and Nov 10, twice in the last 4 years, I don't doubt it happening a month earlier in Octobers

LOL 0::2

looks like dry out with frontal sweep but backside modest 850 mb anomaly persists. d-slope trajectories under full sun ( tho seasonally tepid) should send T's above climo

As is, that’s moving too slow. That thing wouldn’t even produce a wind gust at Worcester. But just a light breezes on the Cape. Can’t move a system that slowly over cold water that large south of Long Island. The oceanic boundary layer becomes an impenetrable inversion, and there would be no wind beneath the cloud height, particularly when there’s rising pressure in the core.

Heh I wonder if we could actually put up a 90 that late in the year

dry summers and autumns show some correlation to ensuing winter temperatures - colder not sure about 2026, though ... such is so during prior/older climate generation

better

est ... 'deepEST' does better there lol

it's the NAM so ... it's skimpier on QPF areal coverage and amounts than other guidance. there's an old saying that dry begets dry ... heh, NAM and a saying, vs all other models

random thought once the clouds claim the sky later in the day ... wondering if the sun will not be seen again until Saturday.

sun is sloped and tepid, getting more sloped and cooler ... soon 60+ dps will only make the side streets sweat - nothing else of consequence. the reason is because the sun doesn't dump in enough energy to keep both a higher dp air mass afloat, while also providing enough energy to simultaneously elevate the kinetic temperature. granted this is all more so the environmental limitation (at this latitude) by mid oct+ ... but is already more challenging.

heh i’d be a little bit leery of using that comparison because there’s clearly a resolution change there I.e., the bottom panel has perhaps multiple factors of greater sampling density… suggestive by the granularity

You know ... there's another way. Change the incentive model. If it becomes profitable to go green, problem solved.

Just my opinion but this air mass arrival's the shot across the bow - symbolic hearkening that the next might be more discerned. Probably we recover with at least tepid warmth later next week ... normal after these first 'smells like autumn' marginal froster deals - less marginal across NNE of course.. It's also ( as an aside...) like a 'sub-continental tuck' air mass. It's not really continental in scale. It is just a transient short duration cool shot curling an autumn air mass sneakily through Quebec. Buffalo has no idea it's happening - straight N shot for 24 hours. Altho it may try to cheat radiate one more night before it rolls out. The more canonical sab air mass looks more PNA-ish. It's almost just a reflection of how our geodesic circumstance sucks cold into this specific region ha

OH, well yeah... We're actually saying the same thing. I suspect it takes like a +3 sigma warm ENSO to finally tastes more than pepperRONIs enough to finally flavor the pizza of winters. haha... sorry about the dad joke. By the way ... you and I first started speaking ( in concept ) about RONI back in like 2009 - not sure you recall but that science isn't very novel at least to me. In fact, I remember back in 2004 having a discussion similar to compression/speed surplus with a fellow college alum. Anyway, point really being that I think when concepts emerge in multiple realms and are the same, that tends to be closer ( at least 'closer' ) to universally useful. Kinda of like fire was discovered all over the world at the same time 10s of thousands of years faster than word could have traveled about how to control it.

I'm aware of that but .. I don't believe they have that right. The ENSO and the La Nina apparent fingerprint is coincidental in that sense - not being forced by the ENSO state/thermal distribution as it terminates into the westerlies. It just so happens to be that in the absence of either, there is a feeble ONI that encourages upwelling over the eastern Pac but it doesn't really reflect a La Nina. Makes it exceedingly difficult to parse the two apart, sure.. because the expanding HC and the break down of that device/organized circulation machinery, lends to a residual SS stressing that orients E --> W In other words, the correlation is too linear.

that's probably going to be a pretty good radiational cooling/frost result Saturday night.. probably all the way down here in interior SNE, too