Typhoon Tip

yes ...it does, whenever in the winter the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs' shittin' in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water

NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99

Jesus ...look at this 582+ dam thickness ballooning over us by 4pm Sunday afternoon... What ever machine numbers are on that day, go bigger. Very strange to have a Caribou low with that type of circulation and that going on simultaneously. this is highly unusual idiosyncratic behavior

heh... it still has it though. Euro and GGEM's been on it as well... Granted it sucks with the placement.... It's ripping it more E and not curving it south. I'd still suggest that it's possible it turns the corner. Btw, this 12z NAM implies a kind of heat burst Sunday afternoon for eastern zones. The grid numbers suggest a wall of big heat sweeps in after 18z. It's not a 'textbook' heat burst, but it could surge from lower 80s to upper 90s late that day.

It's no accident ...I just posted about it -

Probably attribution/CC -related in some way but I have noticing this "something's wrong" effect that no one's really noticing going on all over the place, for a few years for that matter. They're subtle indicators of a "cancerous climate" if you ask me - but heh...I'm just a creative writer on the side. But this below is an example. It's not that unusual to park anomalies right next to each other, as general practice - it's the degree of the deltas that is the unusual aspect. I mean look at this shit up there - that's gotta be unusual relative to climate one would think Meanwhile, at this time, there are 595 heights over PA and probably mid 90s heat from PHL to PWM ( 99 hours off the 00z run). I have a memory like a steel trap for patterns ...going all the way back. It's my own Rain Man ability ( hey everyone's got one). I don't recall seeing snow events after the Solsitice, that far S that often, and certainly not when the mid latitudes, right adjacently, are trying host a heat wave.

that above is why this heat may truncate mid week while that large synoptic appeal of that ridge is still in place. That models are sort of eroding the ridge out from underneath ...like water under a sandcastle. The problem is, that overactive jet (anachronistic for late June) up there fits the seasonal trend of ... basically a tendency for over active jets. There's a reason the eastern half of the mid latitude continent has just gone through the windiest AM month span in 50 years ( check that but something like that...). Anyway, these powerful jets tunneling through the skies over N Ontario will tend to mechanize polar highs ( summer versions of them...). Regardless of season, the +PP then suppresses the boundary S, under cutting the ridge, and that ends the heat. Winter or summer, the fronts seldom end up parked through here... they end up either S, or, the whole construct turns out wrong and they don't come. But at least in my experience, lodging right here is rare. It's possible the models back off this jet bomb up there...which may mitigate some of that going on.. but we'll see.

He's like Ineedachill pill when it comes to snow. Both of them 'em are so out of control jazzed at all times for their respective interest area of weather, that there's no filtration of analytics at first bearing witness to some chart; they just autopost it like this guy as though it's 'totally possible'

Yeah... "daily" thunderstorms sounds like something that seldom occurs here... The models may show that from 7 days out but what you're more typically going to observe is one day of it. After which it shifts south or southeast and we're watching trains of convective complexes from eastern OH to central NJ. Maybe a renegade shower over White Plains NY.

The taconic hills with their 2000' ridge lines ?

I know... Speilberg might have been on to something -

LOL ...that's one way to gentrify ... "yeah, no problem - full public access"

Interesting... one of my besties from college has a summer cattage down there. Not sure if it is the bay or atlantic side, but he's waxed nostalgia about rafting a river with the tides. Huh, wonder if it's one in the same - like it's a known thing.

I dunno ... I think the models are overly sensitive ( physics ) maybe. Typically when you exceed 590 heights in a bona fide ridge node you have suppression... DVM stabilizing ...that's part of the feed-back in the synergistic heat model... some degree ( no pun intended ) of that happens in all warm ridges regardless of whether they go over the top or not. Anyway, it just seems either the ridge has to pancake some, or these models are going to be wrong with all their junk. In fact, there's some appeal there like they've been confusing the coastal heat trough with a front... Like it 96-100 producing a 'thermal low', and then the models start propagating the trough axis like it was a cold front. wrong -

The GFS and GGEM actually wiggled warmer at 500 mb in the Sun -Wed ... tad more robust and resitent. The surface seems like it might be negotiable with this. The GGEM roasts Wednesday but the GFS fronts us despite building heighs more.

yeah ..it's kind of marvel with the rocks and pools amid that fine sand. i can imagine if your a kid with a floater of some kind, how much fun that would be.

Glaciator on vis moving quickly into western Ma

wingaersheek Beach up on the N side of Cape Ann, where the Labrador current stuns all else, does that. Coved formation/pools around the beach and very long surf floor - you can walk out a quarter mile a low tide - makes for "fake" warm water there.

the only aspect stopping an 11 on the scale of 1 to 10 beach days is the fact that the water is still castration temperatures

Probably issue fatigue is setting in with some buuut, ridge early next week was a bit more robust/resistant to change in the operational GFS and GGEM 12z solutions.

nope, it was too foggy this morning

It's possible they're breaking it down prematurely on the back end of that

It'll be disappointing ... that's the forecast for winter. this overall social media's real purpose is to serve as a support group for folks that have a weird kind of emotional regulation issue vs being "dosed" by big model depictions. annnnd like the last 10 years of pounding lessons yet zero apparent retention ... next winter will succeed in giving plenty of reasons to make the aa meetings on time. haha, stick to forecasting the dosage amplitude - you'll all be seasonal heroes

I could see this becoming an anvil/mammata late afternoon from southern VT/W CT, with distant ominous thunder that devolves to just occasional orange lightning and a period of moderate decay rains. Nasty mosquito evoking weather where it's warm and sultry with lighter rain might be the biggest disaster that befalls western zones out of this when that claims the late day for them. You should probably plan to chase to see that yay