Typhoon Tip

actually, do you have 2010's ? I may be thinking of 2010 in the previous -

Yup ... I recall piling out of work around 4:30 pm and when my car finished turning over the dash temp read 33 F. The day was socked in with clouds all day... I think it was a like a BD on steroids the day before... It actually came down initially as a north door front and was more back dooring for NJ but ... for 3 days late, we lost the heat by some 50 pts. I remember remarking to my self in that moment. I'm pretty sure April bounced back though.

I would even argue March 2012 started 3 weeks after the Halloween storm in 2011 ... because as far as my disc golf records, we missed very few weekends the rest of the way through "the winter that was spring" right into 70s and early green up the following March. We were out on fairways in cargo shorts and tee shirts by February ... and it was dry too. Like it was dusty 53 F on a lot of Feb Saturday's.

dern it... I normally would have checked the preceding MOS guidance numbers because this kind of excruciating nerdiness of spring temperature monitoring excites me. ha ... This just seems like a MOS bust incarnate regime we're in today and tomorrow. 59 here ... zero cloud in any direction with infinite visibility. no discernable wind. About a 10 on the nape scale. Needs to clear 62 to enter top 10 day contention - personal requirement for that distinction. But being near 60 in these conditions under near Equinox sun is definitely in the top 20. We may yet get a 64 even here...

I mentioned this earlier. the Euro AI reminds me of the Euro operational from 2005 I used to have access to when I worked at WSI. The model went well beyond 240 hours ... all the way to 360 I believe. Anyway, it seemed to bias toward massive bombs at 300+ hrs ... I'm wondering if all we're seeing is just the Euro " extended" - so to speak...

not to be a dick ( seriously...) but no, 2012 was never in the cards. I like the way Brian mused about 2012 the other day, " ...was a unicorn" - that was some sort of extended event onto itself. It was like 73 for 10 days or something whack. so no- I will say however that we are vulnerable to synoptic 'heat spikes' - like the 12z GFS actually depicts in the goo-goo ga-ga range ... Does it verify? mm, likely no - not from this range can 'likely' be objectively placed on any aspect. That said, the last 10 or 12 year's worth of springs have featured these too frequently to ignore. 582 non-hydrostatic heights on a WSW deep layer flow, after the Equinox no less ...whatever the 2-meter is at this range it's going to be quite a bit warmer - if this below actually sets up

I saw a tweet that there's some kind of a heat burst going on in Africa ... Obviously the "I saw," and subsequently "a tweet" in the same sentence immediately torpedoes its own value - however ... I did read an article about this from other source two weeks ago. I'm wondering if it's matured into something more pervasive and extreme. But places apparently across multiple countries, all at once, broke all time temperature records. If true ...that's interesting to the non-numb

OH sure ... I mean, I wasn't really speaking to his input. I was just budding in and rudely thumping an opinion. haha

Mmm I beg to differ. People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity. Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of lol

That's what I was hoping to see ... Wait, that doesn't say ECMWF "ensemble" AI ... it says "ECMWF AI" ? Yeah, this weekend through next weekend is dicy for wintry events from the NP-GL-NE as this -EPO and attending +PNA couplet play out. The AI version of the operational is already guilty of going particularly nutty in that range - now apparently a flatter more tamed cold passage around the 20th. So we'll see. When I worked at WSI back in 2005 ... I had access to the Euro operational run - which does go out to 360 hours ( or did so back then). I remember the model tended to wind up everything beyond 240 hours. When I saw this AI stuff for the first time ... it was bringing back memories - made me wonder if we're just seeing what the Euro ( non AI) always tends to do way out in time, anyway. Just speculation though... Anyway, so long as the -3EPO and +1PNA canvas is there, ..we can't negate the possibility of a wintry event altogether. I just personally don't lean that way because of a slew of objective facets.

Ya wonder what the elevation of that property in the back ground, is... Like, if it's > 7K feet... what does one expect? I'm not sure of any real "awe" factor in placing constructed civility beyond recreation up that high, particularly in that geography and climate consideration. It's like building a house at the bottom of the ocean and then gawking photos about the flood. People that defend the gawk ability as justified, try to argue that 'even for them that is x-y-z ...' and I don't buy it. That part of the continent has been sitting their prone to the Pacific ocean and the global westerlies bombardment for the last 50 million years of Plate Tectonics ... surviving both ice and fire epochs. It's why either extreme of water and drought, and the types of events that correlate with either ...strike me as too local to 'white man's ' conquest of the north American continent - too brief in geological history and there are probably more likely to be certain place where descending society should just not have built.

I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version? By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11. That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows.

On this side of an imminent -EPO burst ... those model products are likely to bias cold at this time of year. I've come to observe that is true ... all year, but particularly so during seasonal forcing of spring/sun "rug pulling" on cold patterns is a real modeling error aspect that shouldn't be neglected inclusion in anyone's usage of extended model application. To wit, all those graphical products are interpolatively based upon modeled input parameters, ...such that if the latter are cold bias (destined correct warm), the rest of this statement becomes academic. In other words, be careful with the scale and degree of cold. In the modeled dailies ... already the first of the cold trough incursions into the mid latitude continent scheduled to pass through the 18th thru the 21st, has morphed both shallower at mid and upper level non-hydrostatic hgts, but also tending to shear into a positive slope orientation ... not extending as deeply in latitude as it was when first detected some 10 days ago ( some may recall, model runs depicting 20th major EC winter storm ..etc). That was suggested by some posters back then as a possible correction. Not that anyone argued the point ... but it's worth it to mention because I'm not sure I see why the next trough out there around the 23rd-25th doesn't also attenuate some for the total cold. Granted the 20th hasn't verified yet ... but the process of attenuation is both historically supported, and apparently taking place. I'd also caution that the local hemisphere may also surge in temperature with a cold pattern extinction around the tail-end of the month/first week of April - as an impending correction. All polarward index domain spaces neutralizing and as many recent years have demonstrated at global scales ( regardless of season, really -), given lesser reasons to wash out cold and warm mid latitudes, there's usually a disproportionately stronger result compared to distant guidance panache. Nonetheless, between this weekend and next weekend, there'll still be a dicey time for some wintry results between the NP-GL-N OV-NE latitudes.

Nothing in the next 2 weeks argues for that ...well, 10 days anyway - nothing about the preceding 3 week's worth of modeling technology ever did suggest otherwise. I don't know who I'm directing this toward, just sayn' Between Friday and the following weekend it's about how much does the cold back off. It's virtually impossible on a world where we are east of the prevailing westerly wind direction, to sustain a -3 SD EPO for 7 straight days without temp departures leaning toward cold. Like I've been saying though...seasonal forcing is huge going forward with the sun increasing by day dumping short wave/infrared rad into the hemisphere, it becomes a matter of how much the delivery gets offset.

It's my vibe. HA. Blame me, I'm the one that brought it up this morning. Buuut I was also quick to claim it's probably my own personal bias - I'm just remembering those 80 F Februaries ( two of them -) in the last 8 years. And a lot of 80s and 90s in Mar and April. Those were all in fact waaaay beyond the pail compared to anything I personally experienced spanning the previous 40 years for one. But it's just also frequently enough that it's begun to desensitize to it a little. Like Brian said, we're all getting that way a little bit. It's an interesting psycho-babble aspect of how climate erodes and finally does penetrate "expectation spectrum" - if you will.

Tomorrow may be the first 10 top day of the year away from the Labrador scrotum. Using the NAM metrics ( always a questionable wisdom - ), wind is like 3 kts, RH at all cloud heights is far less than 50% ( that means a billion miles of clear sky visibility ), pure unadulterated sun. MET has BDL to 61 - gotta think with +4 at 850 MB machine numbers are going to be too low for everyone from HFD-FIT-ASH, even if the BL doesn't expand to that hgt. Not sure a 160 degree light wind holds off the life sucking force of N Atlantic spring death so pretty sure Scott's sniffin' seaweed pubes by 10 am. Probably out to metrowest of Boston/BED ... May see that on radar slinking inland during the afternoon, too. A lunch stroll has people psyched to get out of work early so they clock out at 3:45 and burst out the lobby doors of their office building right into 47 - wah wahhh.

Since we're on the subject of temperatures... Little surprised that after all that tree whipping yesterday in deep "CAA" we only managed 36 for a low here. Sure, wind keeps the temperatures elevated ... but what this means - I guess - is that we simply are not advecting much actual cold air in this recent environment. Because it's already 47 here. Still breezy so that cancels the 'nape affect' but... should the wind continue to die off and that sun, equinoxian sun, blazes away, today is going to be surprisingly spring like - despite my bad attitude this morning. hahaha I mean I didn't look at the MOS. I'm just looking at this giant Chicxulubian EPO crater on the tele progs and I guess it was too annoying to bother. But seriously this is related to what I mean about the rug pulling stuff.

anyway ... the old school convention would say that we're going to correct the temp means downward substantially... If this were 1990, and we were sitting at ~ +8 on March 12, while staring down the barrel of the teleconnector spread we are now, a neutral expectation by the 24th wouldn't be altogether a terrible anticipation. I mean -4EPO, with a mode switching -1PNA to +1PNA. It's a good thing this didn't happenstance a week before Christmas, huh 'Don't know about March15+ in 2024 ... After 34 years of climate deniers having eaten shit for those 3.4 decades, yet, still eating shit ... while telling us it's the cupcakes of natural cycles. Mm mm all's good. I guess if they mean it's natural in the Universe to eat shit in general ? Well shit ... they hail from an remarkably salient wisdom then. Anyway, whether it's 1990 or 2024 ( removing the climate background - ), the seasonal forcing/sun modifying the atmosphere tends to pull the rug on cold patterns ... It just may be more pronounced, now. I'm wondering if all we get is a couple of wind whacks like yesterday to show for it.

I think it's the sun for me. Once it starts rising earlier, and feeling warmer on the face by the end of February it triggers me. I start thinking nostalgically about ... peaceful deep blue sky days at 73 F with irish green lawns that fragrance of melon when mowed ... or that sweet, distant scent of sugar maple blossoms. Lilacs soon to follow ... What I'm describing there is obviously more late April into early May ...but, I'm just saying, once the sun triggers. The reminiscence it evokes and then the thought of winter becomes like being forced to watch a Burger King commercial 20 minutes after Thanks Giving.

We had the one storm ... I did write words to the affect of some March's made a modest late recovery - but I also qualified that as meaning less for "me," because I hate winter by now. That's just a John thing. I've never been much of a winter appreciator by ...really Feb 20th but negotiable through the end of the month. Once into March? keep it - Just commiserating - ...there are those that share in my feelings on March protracting winters. I am perfectly willing to be a complete hypocritical douche if/when 1888 rings the doorbell. Or even a April 1982 ... 1997. etc. But in a way, those are not hypocritical scenarios. Those sort of exceptionally rare events transcend the 'seasonal druthers' as just being amazing natural events period. They were so rare and exotic that one would have to be on the spectrum or just an idiot not to appreciate in the different light.

HAHAHA

mm sure, why not. some hyperbole to that - It's getting buried in a different consistency perhaps. Whatever it was, it doesn't really imprint indelibly in my memory for whatever reason. I'd have to stare at the objective monthly temperature means, and the snowfall - drill down to specific events and probably of more importance, the geographic pork zones - I wonder if my zone happened to win the sore butt contest. Whenever these discussion come around ... much of the disagreement is fashioned from personal experience bias -

I don't recall any winter being much better frankly, since 2015. Some had a March event that sort of "cheated" their way to a modest recovery but ... I hate winter in March as a standing wave phenomenon ...so those don't count for me. LOL. DJF have all been equally yummy shit-stuffed-down-throat seasons, year after year, now exceeding the length of the 1980s "abysmality" (inventing words) I realize this is not be as true across northern and rarer, central New England.. but along the Rt Poop corridor down here - it's been winter shits for a long, long, long long time

+6 to +10 is some kind of big anomaly but you know... it doesn't "feel" like a torch to me. I think it is because I am still overwhelmed/integrating those 80 ( yeah, 80) events we had in two Feb's, 4 or 5 different March's ...and even a couple April's with a 90 we experienced over the last 10 years. It's probably making my perspective on what a torch is as a little biased. I know it has not been higher than 62 here at mi casa this year, so far though. I'm wondering if this is like the warmest it has been while not actually getting to above 62 - maybe it's all in the lows or just a weird homogeneous same high temp every day or something. Feels like a sneakier +8 ... It'll be interesting to see how these averages look on the 25th and there's some 10 days of -4 SD EPO behind us

JMA's 12z run extrapolates to normal seasonal snowfall for everyone in this sub-forum ... You can really see though that the 3 or so days leading the 19th narrowly miss something extraordinary. -4 SD EPO burst sends a powerful compensating N/stream dive into the N/P ... meanwhile, there's a SW old trough fragment dangling there. Should said fragment get kicked E as the hemispheric torpedo is diving S the two are going to procreate history somewhere in the east. Sorry. Don't blame the messenger. Luckily for us .. .the JMA is the only model suggesting that happens.