Typhoon Tip

And I'm so impatient that if we got this "last two weeks," during the first half of April, it'd be inching me closer to pulling the trigger on a relo to San Diego ... or Frisco or Tuscany. Anywhere of some less rectal glue spring climate ... But looking at those grid of numbers he posted, I think it's more amazing that the top 20 in history have all happened since 1999 - the last 25 years. 25 years, vs, any time since Industrial farting white man stole the world

yeah, a thunderstorm to demarcate the seasonal change into winter

There's a d(mass field) perturbation event about to unfold through our side of the hemisphere - not sure it is H.A. qualitative. In fact, it is not in any objective sense of what that statistical science concluded. "H.A. events," as they've been denoted since the publication some 30 years ago ... were focused in +d(PNA) - switching mode from negative --> positive. The paper does not discuss switching mode from positive --> negative. There was also explicitly stated that there was a weaker ( vague skill ) correlation when moving +d(NAO) - switching it's mode from negative to positive. In principle, any time there is a large mass field distortion, that "probably" qualifies as a period of interest. Events of any kind in the natural geophysical environment only happen at all because a state of rest enters a non-state of rest - such is the case when disturbing the quiescent state of the field being observed. You disrupt, there's an attempt to restore, and the storm happens as consequence. From that I am not completely opposed to the idea. But a +PNA --> -PNA with a rising EPO isn't technically covered in that, which has become both a seminal paper but often misused.

yeah I guess. I'm not really part of that banter battle, tho. Just a relaying the chart trajectories.

Cold Monday night with sub 520 dm hydrostatic hgts. There’s no heat in that atmosphere

'least we're getting 60 F blue bird beauty on a Saturday this time... draw the shades next week and don't come out until the end of the month sometime.

Series of smaller eruptions fractured the inner cone bed and the ocean caved in all at once and flooded the subterranean magma chamber

heh..yeah. I think the better question, tho, is does that even exist. Very little to no continuity from the 00z run. I mean it's futile to assess your question if it's unlikely to be real in the first place. who knows

How about the Euro's 12" of rain for DCA to PHL ...talkin some big ass sultania

Jesus Christ ... have to close this f'n ap you people talkin' about f'n trucks? ooh ya . Where's the emoji of gun and bullet going through head when you need it -

Oh, if I had my druthers? right there with you. I don't care much for the cold and snow and winter fairs ... really once the calendar passes about February 20th every year. Obviously history is adorned with other ideas through March and sometimes April. Hell, in 1976 there was a 15" in the Worcester Hills in May. I didn't say my personal druthers were necessarily realistic. Anyway, I don't deny the seasonal trend but therein is some trouble. I'm seeing changes in the daily operational handling of the hemispheric circulation mode that allow aspects to slow - or are trying to. The those changes introduce some question in trend reliance. GFS has always been both the best at conserving speed/shearing/progression, while being the worst offender at over promoting it. But specifically ...there is a tendency for the N/stream to be less dictating on the flow behavior beneath 40N... That allows opportunity for S/W of southern origin to come up and under cold loading in a different total behavior compared to that velocity BS in mid winter. ( which by the way ...that is proven - yet again ... - to be a plague during this winter season, regardless of whatever telecon or leading seasonal indicator, too. Digress ... ) I'm also providing some avenue out by saying 'we monitor' - just out of deference to sun and seasonality ...etc.

Yeah.. I told "Sey-Mour hopes and warm dreams" that I thought the Euro might be experimenting but that is too much of a whopper suggestion from these EPO/PNA formulating out of every technological method there is at disposal to the field of prognostic science, and art, to ignore... We'll see what it can do when up against seasonality and sun. I've been pounding out keyboards as of late that the models tend to under-evaluate these factors and seem to regress their solutions out in time... But this signal has just become overbearing at this point - I almost wonder if the opposite might be kinda true.

Yeah... I dunno. I wanna be on the other side of the 7 straight days of -3 SD EPO before any personal ambitions and/or confidences in spring begin to blossom... Seasonality and sun will offset that some, but that is a refriken cold signal. CC or not ... we've had big wintry events up here in the nordic wasteland of "spring New England" quite late, during lesser large scale indicators. I get it that the winter sucked so bad that people are perhaps jaded beyond the point of rational thought in the matter - nevertheless, there's nothing untrue in that history, nor what these present mass fields are progged to do. Mid levels are going to get cold all the way down to mid latitudes over the continent next week - The antecedent +PNA tries at neutralizing, but I suspect that's more to do with the initial stressing on the pattern by the -EPO burst/onset, which tries to back drill hgts west of 100W, initially. But the PNA index beyond is still bouncing around neutral, so that' probably cold loading over top some sort of trough ejections S of 40 N, and well...that's what the actualized sfc charts are doing. If this were Feb 5, we'd be probably already be threading a major. For now, ...we monitor. But keeping one's subjective desires of the season and whatever out of it, that's too impressive a signal and if your visions of green lawns and maple blossom aromas are writing your internal narratives ... you may want to refer to Maud Miller: "Of all the saddest words of tongue or pen there are none more sad than these, 'what might have been' "

That's a classic little critter on the D5 ( 00z EURO). ...easily overlooked. That could have a wad of activity capable of 3 hours of moderate or even borderline heavy that starts as sprinkles of rain and then boof! Did someone bust open a down pillow? It's not showing much continuity run to run so... probably just a noisy solution

I noticed NE Pac is -0 850 C all the way down to San Francisco latitude when looking over the 00z operational version... is that what y'all's talkin' 'bout? It's suddenly reverted back to a January 20th climatology look in the wholesale complexion of the hemisphere - I saw the model do this last year around this time. Because this latter experience, and the fact that it just looks climate bogus ...I'm also inclined to suspect it. The thing is, the GFS and GGEM also looked like they're saddling the cold lower into middle latitudes, too - just not as much... These tech sources share grid inputs. They purchase it from one another... when they really should just have that be open source if they had a f'ing modicum of virtuosity outside of economic "automatonic" drones ( another idealistic rage for another time lol). At least they use to sell it... Anyway, I'm wondering if there's something in the "global initialization" that is either real or fake. I do still suggest watching the 20-25th for perhaps a season's last gasp at something.

Meh it’s the mean date of the first snow resulting more than an inch spanning the last 12 yrs

Ever been on the run and realize your carb short.... man. I could eat about 7 of those right now.

20th to 24th ... last chance until November 13th

some of you are like monkey see monkey do, no other consideration. if it were cold today, and warm up next week, the tone would be how horrible NE springs are woe is us f our butts god have mercy...blah blah. but because it's warm now out side at this moment, no awareness of the cold dumpster liable to last some 7 straight days set to begin Sunday LOL It's prolly just me, but I have trouble celebrating today and/or trophy hoisting as a warm enthusiast when considering the bigger picture here.

maybe ... forecasters will have to watch for this -

yeah ...the orograthic cloud patterning aspect I was discussing is more N of the CT/RI border's with MA.

sat seems to confirm the present highway temperature robbing sun stealer cloud fractal may be the last. so we'll see if the temp surges. After today ... we may not see this kind of mild air for long while

actually I've noticed this in recent years ... way more so than I recall observing this through the 1980s and 1990s ...earlier 2000s. we get a lot of these ridge line cloud triggers ...a lot more of them, anyway. Looping this time sensy image below and you get the distinct impression that the elevations are puffing out cloud plumes like the hill tops are chimneys, and sending them down stream - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined These are significant cooling offsets. I'm not aware that anyone is really noticing this, but it seems to cost us a couple clicks or more of high temp when our mornings get harassed by that phenomenon. I think the increasing theta-e in the ambient atmospheric hemisphere ...then forced over even the smaller elevations of our region is helping to keep our high temperatures down - just a little.

it was warmer by 4 F yesterday at this time, despite today supposedly being warmer. this is what happens when even thin, gossamer cloud filters pass over in this cursed New England cold well in spring. Like somehow the sun is weaker than any other place along this same latitude on Earth and even barely perceptible dimming robs 5 F.

Yeah... it's going to turn substantially cooler next week. If this impending -EPO were under carriaged by a -PNA ...maybe the heights dive over the Rockies, but because the PNA is actually positive as the EPO is descending that's going to carrier the cold right at the Lakes and NE. It'll be offset of Equinox sun/seasonal forcing but it's some but it's going to be chilly. Spin is fun ... but there's also just lying.