Typhoon Tip

? any different in the winter

Two schools ... 1 climate; we're always getting some kind of decimal value feedback that corrupts toward higher numbers. Emphasis on DECIMALS. Still ... it plays a role. 2 excluding that ... this month has never looked convincing to me as an above normal month. The indices have up to this point been vague at best on that idea. Mostly what I'm seeing in the modeling is warmth getting pushed back out in time. Meanwhile ... with flat ongoing index signaling, that's usually a red flag for their being full of shit with warm(cool) changes when this is the larger circumstance. The operational runs have a kind of quasi elasticity in their behavior. The moment they're physics spontaneously engender a faux pattern relaxation, their processing goes on to bouncing the other way. But, then the extended becomes the mid range ...and reality corrects that. This song and dance happens on both sides, cool vs warm pattern foots. We see this in bad winter performance times, too, where the big pattern change is always just beyond D10. Then we finally get a snow threat in March after we've been conned for 49 days like taunted abuse. Lol. We more than merely symbolically ruined summer about 3 weeks ago, give or take. It's been a BN pattern in principle really since; whether that has been verifying precisely as that in the dailies doesn't deny the essence, however. Now, quite coherently a geriatric summer that doesn't have time to fuck around is suffering this correction on in time bullshit. (Also, it's Meteorological first day of autumn... which doesn't mean anything but just along the way here - ) So if you are a warm enthusiasts... good luck. Patterns do change. That could happen. But here's just one example of covert/sneaky correcting while everyone's thinking at warm up is en route. Euro, 24 hour correction ... barely noticeable, right?

Anyone alive that denies climate change in the face of more empirical objective data than can be counted in a single lifetime at this point… lacks critical thinking and in fact, their sense of awareness is ping-ponging between complete lack of moral intelligence and complete lack of reasoning intelligence, period

Sick maple color season's begun around northern Middlesex CO

I figured someone up there must have ... 46 here.

Just a reminder for the general audience: The correct interpretation of this chart above is 'there's a 60 to 70% chance for warmer than normal' Note, +.01 is warmer than normal. Frankly, if I'm asked ( which I am not ... understood ha ), after looking over the charts and indices therefrom I'm not seeing anything wholly convincing for warmth to be honest. Can it change? Obviously yes. We have to give a lot of latitude to the indicators and modeling trends at this time of year. As is typically the case, the flow behavior has become nebular in structure; it's not really easy to assess where the major forcing structures will be located in space and time, as model to model variation places that stuff inconsistently. In fact, that uncertainty is even more so than normal from what I am seeing. There's polar jet that keeps trying to orient into a winter like pattern up across Canada, replete with repeating model runs drilling diving jet through Ontario and killing any hope for warmth here through ...D10 or 11... Meanwhile, there's this weaker meandering S jet with nondescript wave signature rippling across 35 N... These two jet regions are challenged to find one another and sync up, as they should be at this time of year... It's basically a couple of hoses flopping around in the guidance. Once every 7 or 8 model cycles, they phase - like the 00z Euro with an autumn trough through the Lakes at 252 hours. Or the previous 18z GFS from yesterday, having a WAR like end of run... Neither of these are likely sustainable indicators though. They'll either disappear or morph so much the implications change. It looks likes like the first 10 days to two weeks of the month will be crushingly uneventful with exceptionally loud silence. haha

Models seem to create their own triggers sometimes… Probably just emergence of chaos in the model as it processes out in time. If the layout is numerically/physically unstable as an initial condition and then the model plunks down one of its little invented triggers in the midst of it we’re going to get these weird solutions like that faux “Bob“ thing … Along with a lot of posts about why it’s possible ha ha ha

The GFS solution is a warm core

In this rough eval you can kind of make that out ... The axis represent clusters of ~ nadirs, and then using the interactive date finder in the product, does suggest that over the last 20 years the mins ice dates have been later into September. It's not a huge signal in and of itself, but it's of greater importance, if not made more significant, by the ice is has also been losing mass over that span of years. I'm sure it would not be too difficult to just get the actual sq*km min numerical numbers and dates, and graph that aspect - but just eyeballin' above.

Oh, ha... well, in that case - any given location could get lucky with a training axis. This does look a bit like it could be a slow evolving scenario so convection might orient into favored bands, along which there can be decent totals. In between? not so much.

Interesting shallowing of the ice loss ...relative to recency that is. Good sign for winter enthusiasts? - well, at least analytically for me I've come to find in the past that the rates of d(ice) and d(land-snow) in autumns appeared to be positively correlated to N/A mid latitude winters during ensuing cold season. We've still got about 2 weeks to go before climo bottoms out and we enter autumn so we'll see if this year can be another test for that.

It doesn't look like a total wash out. Some towns may end up slipping through gaps in a couple line of showers/thunder, while other's get a couple doses. But not like raining all the time. I guess play it by ear

Yeah, I dunno. Personally? I wasn’t attempting to qualify it one way or other - the advent of it is sort of a symbolic rite of passage. Perhaps even right on schedule. Some suggestion in the deep range that it will at least turn warmer again .. how much so unknown

The models have had a hard on for pinching off a mid level low over Brian for some reason … heh. … whatever he did to incur this wrath aside it appears to be legit. It’s only 4 days away so -

Saturday looks like an early autumn vibe in the air... kind of like the shot before the shot across the bow air mass. 69 to 71 highs? Not these faux suggestions merely because we're sensing the daylight slipping and it happens to not be as hot … when it's still climate okay and sun strength to actually be hot ... lol. But don't tell that to the ACATT crew, huh. Anyway, it looks like hydrostats slip beneath 560 for the first time in months. That's an important metric/distinction for me. Also, with cool pool mid level wobbling over CNE, we're probably going to pancake and shade the sun. So less shoulder offset.

Nah ..I've witnessed plenty of warm and humid stretches through mid Septembers. That bears out in climate, too. We're just in a low amplitude +PNA incoming, one that in my opinion is uncertain as to it's real impact on our temps and DPs. There's a chance we'll end up in a EC paralleling flow regime. Until this arriving trough axis actually gets east of our longitude, "cold" air will attenuate if wait altogether in actually getting E. The ensemble means and operational runs are lowering heights but keeping the trough west of us until late. If add to that to a subtle tendency to also de-amplify troughs when moving their handling through the mid range, it's not hard to see that turning into a Bahama Blue or quasi variant of one as a compromise. If the PNA then resonates and a secondary push takes place ( D way out there...), yeah then it's playing with a gun. There's frost alerts in the Arrow Head of MN... while there is triple digit heat headlines in the PAC NW. That concurrency is an anomaly in an of itself.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-sea-ice-ocean-currents-antarctica.html

18z NAM profile is near 90 Saturday BOS SW burbs/metrowest and other usuals.

this is really interesting actually https://phys.org/news/2025-08-temperatures-linked-declining-moods-world.html

Ha... Erin looks on satellite the last hour to be moving due E. Can you imagine if this were 1984? You're all fluffed to the point of bursting over this hurricane set to rocket N in the modeling standard of the day, set to pummel the area ... replete with warnings and fever pitch. Only to have set your coffee down this morning, and turned on the TV to a satellite loop of it moving due E hahaha priceless That's what it was like in the 1980s ... the wah wah waahhhh decade. Winter storms too. At least with this thing y'all mo'fuggahs knew ( though some stubbornly ignored...) 8 days in advance that the pattern was completely a piece of shit.

Nor should anyone ... ... But, if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. There's a risk in reading these cautions in absolute dictation. Becoming is not become. Like I said, none of this forestalls the advent of bomb winter. These teleconnectors are not 1::1 ... never have been. They can't be. There are too many contributing forces, creating a huge polynomial, each one more and then less- so scaling the equations for influence does not result a consistent contribution from their individual parts from year to year. Within that noise, there is tendency, however, during these the last 10 years ( rather consistently...) to be "more noisy" lol for lack of better phrase. I'm aware of situational bias. But I'm considering that there are reasons that support the ongoing disruption/observations therein.

Gee ...any marine taint today ? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The other thing that's irked me about this recent 3 or 4 day cool down is that it's lying? Talk about a faux autumn con -job. I say that because the hydrostatic heights ( thickness) have never fallen below 566 dm along the BUF-BOS latitude. Actually it was true over BTV, too. "deep" in the toposphere. The cool air has been a narrow layer on the bottom - completely belying the true deep layer, positive anomaly ongoing thermodynamic nature of the thing.

heh... great. more subjective word maze popsicle headache. Yeah I dunno. 'for me' I'm okay with deep summer being 83/62. It's not winter. It's not autumn nor spring. It's summer, and above climo for August 20. But again, it's a semantic waste of time. 90/70 is just hot; deep summer needs to be in place, first.