Typhoon Tip

Yesterday was fantastic at Jennes Beach in Maine. The near shore water popped to (est) 69 as the tide was coming back in, right at around 2-4pm, and with 76 air and pure sun. Perfect.

Ha... I did not - Well in that case ... the model product is a piece of shit because there's no way the whole AO domain does that. nope -

well .. i was also intending a good bit of that for snarky sarcasm But I do think like all snarky sarcasm ...there's an "air" of truism in there

I don't ... I'm suspicious that it all collapses and we get shoulder season early blocking by early October, resulting in another early faux winter across mid latitudes, through ~ early Dec... (white Thanks Giggidy?) Then, the real winter arrives as another wind scarped S/W shear show that shits on everyone's winter forecasts with unrelenting windy and mild steady state boredom. Maybe a threat or two, sure... But outside of those, predominately AN months with a lot of jet speed shear with attenuating model outlooks in the nearer terms. It all relaxes in March when a late SSW is just in time to fuck up early next summer with BD indignity days...

no...it's the fact that it covers such a small geographical region. Most of that chart is early autumn. Barely servicing that warm side of the debate, would be a fairer impression of that chart. But again ... I don't trust that GFS solution anyway. Just sayn'

Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two.

It's not just the trough domain ...notice the heights in the west also inching polarward. Basically it's a problem plaguing the models, one that's gotten more obvious in the last 10 years, not going the other way with supposed upgrades. They have to add heights everywhere when moving from ext --> mids --> short term. I come up with sci fi ideas. I can't help myself ... Like, they are trying to wholesale remove global warming from the ambience. Or it's a conspiracy to do so because MAGAt's have a mole in the modeling R&D offices at NCEP... heh 'Course, that myth gets immediately debunked when considering the zagnut scaled intellect of the MAGAtsphere: it could never produce an NCEP modeler, huh

Not in the conversation but ... when was the last time the 30-year climate intervals were re-applied? It could be a cooler AO domain relative to a "new" data set/means therefrom. Just a plausibility

GGEM's setting up a significant positive anomaly in the geopotential medium beyond D6 now too

this type of pattern appears to be a favored return state up to this point, this summer... This is the 12z ICON, which by no means is being used here as a formal position matters ... But, I don't think this summer's going for an early release so long as this keep manifesting in the runs. We'll see what the 12z's do here in a bit, but at least in so far as next week is concerned, some recent runs of both the ECM and GFS have periodically demoed something similar.

yeah no unfortunately ... the court of public opinion in this particular ( or any most likely ..) social mediasphere will predictably ignore principle achievement while formulating their impression of reality. Obviously, in order to maintain their personal biases in these sort of debates - tediously too. Like over decimals when the principle of this, seems to completely escape their awareness. but good luck

yeah right ... I'm mean I'm preaching to the quire here but mmm ... it's kinda difficult to run a winter expectation when the world is warming. At baser arithmetic level, let's just say that warming is not synonymous with snow. I mean, we can get into the whole debate about burgeoning atmospheric ambient WV going up, such that when it snows it snows harder. You'd be correct. But that's during the 'initial stages' of this 'Anthropocene Epoch' - terminology debate ongoing amid the global scientific ambit. At some point, harder and hard snows become harder and harder mix ... eventually, cold rain. But something else is happening also. The CC that doesn't exist while something simultaneously fucks up actual climate ( ) is also represented in morphology of storm tracks. Storm behavior and morphology in and of themselves... Types and distribution. Speed of the ambient winter hemispheres - there's a reason most commercial airliner air-land speed flight records have been set in the last 20 years, on west to east intercontinental transits, and it's not because the vehicles are necessarily better. Any evolution of aeronautical design and power conversion mechanics via jet engine propulsion cannot account for taking off from Laguardia and landing at Heathrow in 3.5 hours... or whatever that was ( just 1 ex). Anyway, all this shit effects how/if a storm snows too. Think of it this way. We have a front side dammed in cryogen airmass, but the storm is moving some 15% faster than past climo storm motion... But the evaporation and other physics remain constant - that means the the storm moves by and limits snow, but warms the column in time to clip with more mix to rain scenarios. Just being a little creative here to exemplify the point... But, that 1 in 10 storm that stays snow, yeah...snowed more than expected - for now.

okay heh

wait ...what's the vitriol ?

I've been personally looking for a Bahama Blue circulation mode to set up... It's when you get a deep layer cross-latitudinal flow straight along and off the EC ... S to N with mass gathering from the eastern Gulf meshing in with Trade circulation fields turning NW through the Bahamas and all the way up the stream comes. It's actually some of my most fascinating weather...just knowing the the deep blue with brilliant narrow turreted CU towers and their blinding single pixel rain shafts are bring the tropics to a none tropical climate. heh. Anyway, I have seen some hints of that in recent guidance but not convincing.

Beyond this weekend .. what we got? The CPC's enhanced probability for above normal temperatures. Just a primer (again..) on how to use this product: the intensity of red colorization does not mean higher scalar temperature. Orange hues progressing to red means greater and greater probability of above normal temperature in that order. In other words, this product says nothing of the magnitude of above normal. If the days turned out +0.01 ..this product was successful. Very high probability of above normal with that deep insidious dried scab over NM for example, means that there is a very high probability, based upon whatever methods CPC uses to assess, that the time range will average between 0 and Nth degrees above normal. This all conceptually true at the other side for BN, obviously. Having said all that, yeah...there some semblance of trend in the operational longer range means to roll another warm interlude out of the west. That observation matches timing with the day 8-14 from the same source above as a progression timing. The teleconnector numerical fields are positive-nominal ( AN but not +AN). SO ....there's likeliness for AN from all this blended info but nothing that smacks as exceptional at this time. It's important and obvious to note that telecons and these spatial synoptic layouts, et al, are more stochastic in summer, which doesn't lend to predictive skill.

I, for perhaps one, am psyched for this impending rain. Well timed, while also well needed. Just commencing here... showery and vaguely convective N of the more obvious downpours sliding up ENE out of CT ...ranging to strata rains over Upstate NY and CNE. This is occurring through 13z tomorrow morning, and then the moisture fields/sigmas make it appear as though we actually fracture the ceilings and sun wins out over the course of the afternoon hours, NW-SE, tomorrow. It's a work day and night ... this is when we ...or I, prefer it. Wouldn't mind a solid 3" soaker but as me grandmammy always used to say, 'beggars can't be choosers'. Saturday still projects to be the very best weather in terms of subjective consensus, this summer ...or any summer, can provide on Earth. If you want something better... I don't know, go to "Pandora" or something I guess. It's like regional mean of 78/50, under the last days of solar max irradiance, thru 100 mi type visibility air moved around by caressing zephyrs. Altho..hm, not sure of Michigan smoke but cross that bridge.. . Sunday looks pretty much the same, too. Jeez

I, for perhaps one, am psyched for this impending rain. Well timed, while also well needed. Just commencing here... showery and vaguely convective N of the more obvious downpours sliding up ENE out of CT ...ranging to strata rains over Upstate NY and CNE. This is occurring through 13z tomorrow morning, and then the moisture fields/sigmas make it appear as though we actually fracture the ceilings and sun wins out over the course of the afternoon hours, NW-SE, tomorrow. It's a work day and night ... this is when we ...or I, prefer it. Wouldn't mind a solid 3" soaker but as me grandmammy always used to say, 'beggars can't be choosers'. Saturday still projects to be the very best weather in terms of subjective consensus, this summer ...or any summer, can provide on Earth. If you want something better... I don't know, go to "Pandora" or something I guess. It's like regional mean of 78/50, under the last days of solar max irradiance, with 100 mi type visibility air - altho..hm, not sure of Michigan smoke but cross that bridge.. . Sunday looks pretty much the same, too. Jeez

so there ...

yeah i was pretty sure it was that late june one just curious. actually got to wondering how often it is to get 1k high orh to do that just in general - as in return rate.

Orh back to back days 90 or better. last time that happen ?

This is basically what it’ll be doing here tomorrow night Reflectivity

lot of 96 and 97 around again this afternoon. Won't make 100 but damn this is still hot and are still Big Heat numbers

Yeah that consensus is more of a strata layout deal N of the Pike from what I'm seeing and knowing how these modeled synoptic scenarios tend to go. There's likely to be some bumpy clumps on the satellite training along southern zones for a time, but the whole axis is settling SE. Seems Friday may correct toward breaking cloud in the afternoon, because the subtle but crucial small tendency to flatten the whole thing means that it is also slightly accelerating almost unnoticed as well. Saturday may be up there among the best quality days this summer's had to offer -