
Typhoon Tip
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip
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Ha if this were circa 2006 I would at Eastern, with title of ‘possible but above normally ‘ in a heart beat IF we didn’t have possibly two other thread able events after this weekends to consider first.
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I hadn’t realized that … was heads down at work save what time I spent was focused on the weekend But the 15-17th bomb on the GFS I consider a nod to the EPS ensemble. Btw, the GEFs have above normal coherence too, just 1/3rd of the coherence … which is still above normal for this range.its just that the EPS is exotic
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all indicators included suggest for me that that is an important period to watch in that midmonth
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The next couple of frames after that have a clear tendency for bent cyclonic -PP with an extraordinary number of members below 970 mbar considering the range…
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For ensemble mean consideration, it is very rare to get a signal this coherent at this kind of time range… this also has a positive PNA pulsation occurring in tandem
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Storm of the season may be the 15-17th
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yeah honestly ... I'm not seeing differences here that matter from anything when blending all. Moving some parts around inside the average doesn't change the average, in principle. Still looks like a 4-6" NoP and 6-8" Sop deal, but if there is a change in future runs than I'm happy to adjust. One other thing, NWS may have some cross sectional jazz they're using but I'm not sure I see ( otherwise ) where 8-12" come from in this very fast moving open wave. Some attenuation, even if only 5 to 15% is also typical in the final event approach in compression
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GFS misses with a real big one on the 15-17th potential... Just moving the interaction timing a CH and we're correcting any perception of this winter in the absolute sense. Problem is ... the fast flow should really prevent the phase so ..it's like a baked in face smack limitation. haha
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Is that real tho ? I mean I don't doubt that it is but I just went over to NASA's interactive page that runs the map request for GHCNv4 Tv5 and it says it's not available for Jan 2025 Do you have another link ?
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Basically that’s metaphorical to us having won a cold raffle …
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kind of aggravating ... because it has hindered matters without any room for doubt, for years now ... This is not the first discussion over this. Forget that, we should all have PHD's in this awareness just by proximity to life in this shit-show by now. Plus, some of us here have clearly been wasting our time instructing this stuff for the course. I'm a pissy cynic about it... but I cannot help but see it sometimes that people filter out/elide/ignore contents if/when they don't sense that it is what they want. It's a good thing no one's getting graded in here. HAHAHA. Anyway, yeah ... the whole pattern has the caution flag baked in for compression and fast flow limiting curvature and zonal forcing circumstances. yup.
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6" is too much given unmistakable and objective trends. That said ... trends can reverse. That's what we're hoping for a winter enthusiasts. If that happens...sure. Part of the problem is not just that the system is trended(ing) S... The problem is in understanding the structural limitations of a compressed field and fast flow, limiting the N-S extend of any system for that matter. Then adding consideration that this one is not a strong one. If I were Brian and Jay ...this is already a modeled a dim sun cirrus smoker Realistically... ? there's nothing wrong with keeping the higher ends down.
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It's safe. I mean, protecting one from the unsavory circumstance of having been d-dripped along by bullshit is a very adult thing to do. Heh ... that super hot flirtatious waitress isn't really that into you Seriously though, conserved approach when there are so many valid reasons to be conservative -
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Actually ... I'm also a bit skeptical on the higher amounts of the 8" range just looking at the ensemble means. This is not a very intense storm. We want it to be on the N side of the climo track now that I'm thinking about that; while not being too close to where it starts going the other way.. This is what it means to negotiate needle thread circumstance. That's exactly how one has to fiddle with the guidance implications ( btw). If the storm were slower it would probably be stronger by virtue of having been born out of a less compressed field ... so it would spread its goodies over a larger area. The GEFs are just flat out too far S for a 998 mb low frankly, to really correlated more than 4". If the QPF is saying otherwise given below ...it's destined to tone it down as this nears. The EPS is better ... *HOWEVER*, the entire Euro cluster has been too far NW with modeled cyclone tracks since this pattern foot became established. That could be a caution flag for which team has error in its favor. Having to compound all this with storm speed and lacking duration and this and that it's dicey for higher numbers. So ... we'll see if there are any future short term wiggles that help.
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
OT, I never had a snow day in the 1980s ... Not once. Of course, that was a different cultural era - it wasn't just for dearth of snows. But there's still no mistaking, the trigger gets pulled ( starting about 15 years ago ...) at least excuse imagined when preceding pretty much anything in reality nowadays. I used to think that's because our society has evolved to be litigiously preoccupied, always looking to sniff ways to f-over some one or something else to compensate for their own stupidity or just bad luck, or both ... Eventually ... institutions had to evolve to protect themselves from lawsuit giddiness. Ha. But I wonder if there is also a "day off" undisclosed sorta motivation going on. Because unless parents really are working for some unforgivable p.o.s. employer, they can pull the 'have to be with the kids' card. Raising kids is complex... it's easy to hide that motivations behind a litany of reasons why this would require not doing one's day job along with the kids staying home. So it's very difficult to prove that mentality is part of it. lol I'm also kind of cynical so tfwiw - -
The operational Euro from 00z depicted an unusually high efficiency QPF "explosion" for lack of better word, from an excessive isentropic lift, overnight between Sat/Sun. One of those morning's where a new 8-10" had abruptly occurred, and blue tinted light cleaves through curtain like a gelid peep hole from inside an igloo. Big short duration snow rates .. .Somewhat reminds me of that Dec snow in 2007 that was supposed to be 3 or 4" then IP/ZR then a light rain finish, but it positive busted on the snow side to the tune of some 10" - major ending with freezing drizzle. Never saw 32. It seems to be the only guidance with that scale and degree of proficiency, and it is a rather detailed aspect that may not survive the 3 day's worth of model runs yet to come... so by virtue of that reality as it stands now we'd have to consider that low confidence. That said, the system is quintessentially propagating - albeit fast - along the climate track that correlates well for snow from SE NY to S ME in the operational blends ... something like HFD to ASH along that axis, even without that specific Euro efficiency... either way. Unlike this event today, this 9th one is much higher confidence at this point just because of the stark continuity in the guidance et al. Whether it is 4-6" or 6-8" ... meh. I lean low end warning still and we'll see if some kind of exotic 5 hour, upper tier anomaly starts looking more likely in future runs.
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I feel like for this particular winter this is kind of a 'nadir system' Doesn't have to be a stem wound coastal bomb like in 2015 with that 5 F juggernaut, 978 mb low going by to make the point. It was 8 this morning when the u/a deck capped the cold, and now it is 14 with est 3/4 mi vis of straight down micro dendrite bundles. [edit, now slightly bigger aggregates and est 1/2 mi vis ] I had mentioned some time ago in this thread that part of this system's advantage was in fact it's translation speed; it is outpacing the surface lag. By the time any WAA could scour this slab of low cold, it's long gone. The systems going forward appear to be on the polar side of the boundary so may be safer. Not sure they'll be this knuckle stinger cold at onset. -
"The world warmed to yet another monthly heat record in January, despite an abnormally chilly United States, a cooling La Niña and predictions of a slightly less hot 2025, according to the European climate service Copernicus." https://phys.org/news/2025-02-la-nina-eases-earth.html
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Right in 4 runs it’ll be over - I bet it’ll nail it !