Typhoon Tip

You almost wonder if there's really a bigger deal lurking for the 9th but there may be circumstantial shitty noise sort of hiding it? Look at this 12z GEFs mean out of nowhere with bright beacon at 200 hours - this was absent on the recent runs until you get back to 12z yesterday and it had it again. It's like it's there but being occasionally masked by something. This below gets a final hurrah taken care of, no doubt. EPS, nada for the most part ... wave on the front rocketing east.

Euro's not interested ... In fact, as I was mentioning to Scott earlier in the day ... the 00z op Euro was incongruently too cold looking for the telecon spread ...recent trends also. This 12z seems to have corrected much of that. It had the 9th bomb in the 00z run but it's opting on this run for something that's more sensible

Blue bomb incarnate ... It would be somethin' if there was wind coupled with 33 F S++ That GGEM solution is oddly deep when looking at the QPF layout/behavior. It's as though the model deepens the low, prior to the QPF output... that's backward. The QPF happens during the bombogen - the lifting air is what causes the goods to fall out. That's how that works. This is paltry QPF on the way down to a 960 something low, then it starts getting heavy after the fact. But, it is also the GGEM beyond 10 minutes in the future so taken with own risk

one step closer to my evil plan to punch 75F air mass into a 15" snow pack ... muah hahahahaha

GGEM buckin' for the 9th again...

It's marginally less impressive than the GEFs, too. The thing is, these Feb/Mar heat bursts have been a phenomenon that are identifiable. We can find other examples of them occurring going back centuries... but it's the frequency of them that is paramount. It's spooky to see them improve to roughly 1::3 or 4 years. It is unprecedented against the century based climate density - an aspect that began over the last 20 years or so. They are happening regardless of leading longer term seasonal bias indicators. So it's not very correlative to PDO this or Polar field that, or ENSO this... Being 15+ diurnal mean should not happen as often as it has, period. Anyway, they are ultimately pretty harmless. I mean, look out! Perfect short sleeve weather with light breezes at masturbatory temperatures isn't exactly inspiring a dystopian mad dash for the hills - but they are kind of like heroin. The feel really good, but it belies the damage that they represent. ... risking going down that rabbit hole. It's worth it to try and identify how they materialize. I think the teleconnector outlook is trying to set that table, so it's worth it to test if so. That's all.

I know ... he's always done the clown act in here .. pretty patently obvious. I like to expose that once in a while because he hates it when I do - hahaha

It doesn't ... There's nothing about that 850 mb temperature anomaly that supports a surface temperature of 90 F anywhere in New England. Kevin is a clown. He's been an irresponsible poster for many years. Despite encouraging him to change into a responsible poster ... he just won't. Or perhaps can't seem to really amend his ways. Fun guy to hang out with over quaff and ball bustin' times at pubs here and there. Would I buy a car from the him? Fu no. You are more correct in your attempt to reason through based upon observing what is really being conveyed in that product - then using some intelligence in trying to work it out. The product is painting a vast above normal 850 mb level temperature anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent. About mid way up the anomaly scale - it can be much more but as for now it is what it is. But, +6 or +7, in March, when the sun is sufficiently strong enough to warm the surface and start mixing the planetary boundary layer closer to the 850 mb level - whereby those temperatures can be adiabatic to the surface, would support a temperature in the lower or middle 70s under ideal heat conditions. If there is snow on the ground, that would not be ideal. It would obviously offset... But if the cutter(s) in the foreground eat the pack back to bear ground, and the 9th doesn't materialize... there is some chance to maximize that outlook.

it's quite incongruently cold, spanning the local hemispheric scale, with respect to where the teleconnectors have long argued we are heading - and still do as of last night's EPS derivatives. The EPS derived EPO has shut off the cold supply. The PNA is negative after the 9th - yet the operational version parts company and meanders into a +PNA .. There's also a tinge there of ignoring seasonal change, which is going to force the hand of the models as we are nearing the equinox and beyond. While and if the polar fields are shut off and the mid latitudes are left open to being pummeled by increasing solar, that's dubious what the Euro's doing for that as well. There's a lot there that is out of line. I'm not sure how much of the Euro can be trusted because of that. The GEFs are slightly more uniform then the EPS mean, but the EPS mean is still not supporting the Euro operational and remain warm implicating. The op Euro is just a straight up odd-ball cold outlier. We'll see I guess.

whatever happens on the 9th this just 3 days later. spectacular turn around

yeah, that's kind so 1998

Keep in mind ... every system in this time range, since Thanks un-giggedy ..., has both de-amplified and sped up. In theory this thing on the 9th is setting up in less compression, but ... whenever less compression has been signaled in this same time range, it has amplified and recompressed gradually in ensuing runs The two are probably related... as the latter takes place, it starts robbing form the former. Not sure I see a compelling reason why this would be different this time but we'll see. Also, again ... the PNA is marginal on the 9th. As I was describing before, it is in the process of -d(PNA). That means that support is trying to diminish. Some wiggle room tho ... just be cognizant of that. ( yeah right!)

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for. It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade"

I so hope this happens for shear fascination of it ... but just a CH of correction on the Euro is a 12-15" blizzard, then ... look at this warm front barely 2 days later! That sucker's totin' 70+ no question ...it would be really amazing to see that air mass punch into that

That D10 GGEM would be fun to see the 11th just for model shits and giggles - that was en route to becoming the biggest storm ever anywhere E of the planet Jupiter in the history of the solar system

We've definitely turned the corner on the season. It's just a matter of coming out of it in increments, frets and starts. It's gonna be like 1.5 steps forward, followed by .75 steps backward for the next 12 or so days. Beyond that ... if the teleconnectors are correct, we have a much more impressive synoptic layout emerging for warmth after the 10th. It's not as far as we think. Tomorrow's the last day of February. But for the time being it is like any other extended out look... obviously there are uncertainties in what that will all mean. These operational versions are just beginning to toy with it out there as the charts emerge over the distant temporal horizons. So far ... if your a spring/warm enthusiast, that is encouraging for the time being.

Man ..it'd be a terrific opportunity for a Michael Bay movie... ... the entire land-based ice cap up and slides off the continent one fateful afternoon. Probably early October, after the warm season's assault has brought basal flow 'lubrication' to criticality, breaching stability thresholds. Some moment of dialogue when the disaster is unfolding, "...But I thought you said it would take many years to melt." And the reply yells back as the scientist is boarding the helicopter, "Those tremors?! It turns out they were really fore shocks - we didn't know those same mechanics applied!" Sets off a global tsunamis that raises the water level 20 feet all at once in a super-biblical obliterating wall of death and debris, only this wave doesn't eventually wash back out to sea... Where ever it stops, that's the the inherited new coastline. The name of the movie is "Inherit The Ice" - which is beautifully ironic for a title given to the nature of "Global Warming"

The numbers suggest a warm pattern, but the operational Euro's first 'detection' seems to try and send an oscillatory pattern that swings both cold and warm over 2 day periodicity. How extreme notwithstanding, these warm intrusions to our latitude, in that model's run ( 00z) are more like warm sectors that only last for a day because of that oscillating nature. One thing that sticks out is that the flow foot remains very fast. Ex, the Euro sets up a warm bubble/sector out there, with a front way back west of St Louis, and by 36 hours the front is E of Logan/New England. It's hard to tell if that unusual speed isn't just an artifact of the model at a long lead range where ... it probably shouldn't be run in the first place. F'n 300+ hours Meanwhile, the GFS is yawing violently the wholesale deep circulation mode over the continent, between ridge manifestation vs deep troughs over it's last 3 consecutive cycles - basically... there's an entirely new paradigm suggested by the numbers, to kick in post the 10th of Mar ... outside the operational versions range in the best of times, but going from a cold inertial hemisphere, to a warm one, is likely to be a problem during that transition for reliable deterministic solutions.

what direction is the QBO ?

Looks here like what Scott was saying ... impressions like a kink low on a front. There's some deep members here ... but it also could be proximity to the pressure well associated with that deep maritime vortex just along the NE edge of this frame... I'd also caution that numerical support for a system on the 9th-10th is waning. Seems like a candidate for losing amplitude as it nears