Typhoon Tip

okay, so .. having looked at that NAM my self. The model paints rain, intensity not withstanding ..., through early evening than a change to snow along Rt 2 in N. Ma between 5 and 7 pm. It may snow moderately at times, but most likely light thereafter through 1am. Then the whole system mercifully dwindles off into the Atlantic where we can finally never have to talk its irrelevancy again ... Not sure what individual expectations are with this thing but the current behavior appears to match the 12z run from what I'm seeing.

Like I said ... always a risk with the NAM lol

Perhaps ... it is the NAM. Never a bad idea LOL That said, it is 36/31 here, however ... I personally fail to see where we are getting warm air into this region above the deck. The sounding is chilly, suggesting any warmth at all is restricted to the surface to 1200' Every sigma above is at or below 0C? 'less I'm mistaken. Probably fall rates dictate this bad boys distribution -

It's aggression ... You're talking about the motivation behind it. The act of doing so, without confer and diplomacy and all the other tacts of "civility" that demonstrate respect for sovereignty, is absolutely an abysmal act of fuckin aggression.

Right, so based on that logic, Mexico should be changed to America - why stop at the Gulf. It's not based on geodetic distinction.. It's an act of geopolitical signaling and aggression to annex that region by name - whether it is ultimately petty and not very meaningful or not. Ha! If we want to get into geological demarcations based on the fragmentation of the lithosphere, that's going to be rather distabilizing to global harmony - not that there is any of that to begin with...

yeah. Actually yeah ... I've been saying all along, so long as the NE Pacific heights keep rebounding high, that's going to make it difficult to get warmth to higher latitudes across the continent. Suppressing the N/stream south becomes a the correction vector - just meaning the direction the correction will tend to occur.

No shit ?

It's not much ice though. Your dystopian, "super ethically responsible minded dream ..." necessarily is for > 1.5" accretion. So you just dreamed for a boning. Nice goin'

These very recent overnight various runs, en masse, attempting to suppress the warm signal - not removing it ... I mean, literally sitting on it like the playground bully. It's there, but slowly losing oxygen as the cold sits on it. The NE Pac just won't relent. The models seem to be really bit into some variant notion of Newton's First Law of Motion, "..an object in motion will continue moving at a constant speed in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force..." The models think the warm signal must be insufficient as an external force enough to change the preexisting state, huh. LOL We'll see if all has legs but ..it's getting harder to fight the cold winning idea. I've had the rug pulled on "convincing signals" this season a couple of times, so yeah.. keeping that in mind, too

The 9th is attempting emergence. What I suspect would become a multi regional concern for the east/northeastern U.S. Too far out in time for specific goodies. I am aware there's also an overrunning type/SW flow set up for the 6th to get through first, but frankly ... the 9th-ish is just more interesting to me. This is still primitive so let's not get carried away, but there are recent subtle changes among the various key teleconnectors. Alone they would likely be dismissed, but taken in aggregate, and combining the circumstantial hemisphere, the signal bears some meaning. For 2-3 days there is a local -EPO nadir, beyond which the index is collapsing in the outlook from all three EPS/GEFs/GEPs. This flags hesitance to really alter the NE Pacific's influencing the downstream flow over N/A ( above 45 ) ...and probable cold sustaining. It could be west in a -PNA, but circumstantially ... this is not a newly arriving EPO. It becomes more of a back-loading scenario. I think the deposition of the NAO discussed below is likely related to that concept That, while there is a subtle but important +d(PNA) between the 6 and the 9th. The index only moves about .5, but A, it is the scalar behavior that is important, less the scalar value. It is an upward movement spanning that period of time. And B, it probably is doing that at all because ens members see the smaller scaled min passing through the eastern mid latitude continent. In all, these aspect send an interesting wave signal down what is likely a suppressed polar boundary due to the antecedent cold bias already in place. Lastly, the interesting aspect is the NAO, 'where the hell have you been...' It's suddenly -d(NAO). Granted, of all three, it is the less confident beacon do to the intrinsic assholiness of that index. For the time being, a dropping NAO tends to move the storm track from the eastern GL to S of NE. It's a taken FWIW addendum. We pretty much see this already manifesting in the operational guidance, anyway, but with all these larger inputs ... lends to the notion that this could become a thing. The EPS/GEFs ens means, albeit weak for the time being, have a cyclone signal at 230+ hours now E of the Del Marva. I picture this more as a narrowed but possibly more significant player though. So much for not getting detailed. LOL

And just to be fair to the other side of the equation ... this is also related to why La Nina's can feature early springs. Obviously ...with that standing wave up there near Alaska this year, and any down-welling SSW notwithstanding, that would be more difficult lol. Still, if those fail, while this SE ridge is trying to exert, things can turn ugly for winter enthusiasts pretty fast. Recently I posted about these aspects. We've also been getting those weird Feb and Mar warm bursts about ever other or every other other year since 2012 so that's kind of out there, too. Just something to be objectively leery about. For the time being (in outlooks) winter enthusiasts appear to be safe.

I feel like simplifying all this is the pathway of least regret ... So long as these multi-source ens means continue show this (centered on Feb 10), winter is within reach.

yeah perhaps. I'm noticing also that the EPO domain keeps reformulating into the negative mode. It's been a very dependable correction - This time, the PNA is much more negative comparing to early in the season ( index outlooks ) so it'll be interesting to see how that part of it evolves. I remember posting about the EPO last week, tho, and I still feel the same. So long as the EPO/Alaskan sector keeps building mountains, the down slope valley is going to make sustained warmth ( at minimum) a model error prone, speed shearing compression shit show.

Just brutal for the emotional side of this engagement. Frustration at an all-time high considering we just spent like 6 consecutive weeks with enough cold air to fill 10 seasons with blizzards; then, suffer that kind of defeat this late in the season?! That would be proof that it is time to put all this quantum computing AI to the task of figuring out how to get humanity to at last leave this planet. haha

yeah it appears there's an emerging signal for the 6th; it would likely be in that area of the storm spectrum given the -PNA , after 2 or 3 days of -EPO loading. Statistically, cutting is always a risk. But the continent is like so deeply pre-prepped with cold air, it's going to slope the system toward triple point tendencies... heh, assuming it's real - let's get that ironed out.

Seems the pattern change is being pushed back... this is nearing the ides of the month (blw). But, if we go back a week, the GHD system ( which become tomorrow, sped up by flow correction/compression ), was supposed to be a sort of last hurrah on the cold intraseasonal pattern, then balm by the end of next week. Now, it looks like we're negotiating a Feb 6th wintry system, and this below is pushed to after? I'm not a big fan of can-kicking in the models. I think the model in question needs to put up or shut up, in the sense that it can't be trusted. I don't doubt that the pattern may ( or not ) change, but the guess as to "when" becomes hugely problematic..

Man ...that's a wildly storm prone D10 ..12 operational GFS complexion out there on this 12z run. It's just got all kinds of embedded wave interference issues, otherwise that'd likely host something. But, it's one run and long way off in the distance -

yeah... it's a coarser look than all these dissection analytic tools that provide all those drill into sub-standard layering and whatever... but I like to use this as a canvas - particularly < 36 hours. Which this event is not in that range just yet; the numbers may adjust coming into that inner range. T1 Temperature in model layer 1 (lowest 35 mb) in degrees Celsius. If temperature is below freezing, it is coded as the difference from 100. i.e. 97 = -3 C, 88 = -12 C T3 Temperature in model layer 3 (approximately 900 mb). T5 Temperature in model layer 5 (approximately 800 mb). ...are all at or less than 0C, and this synoptics isn't really placing a 700 mb elevated warm layer, so "as is" this is a snow column at Logan unless there's a some very low level warm layer, but .41 QPF is enough fall rates to overcome that. Probably west of Boston is no problem relative to these numbers, either way.

At least as far as the NAM's old fashion FOUS product, the grid is all snow at Logan on this 12z run. I realize some don't know what these numbers mean. I've written the definitions out before, but it doesn't seem to get learned so - if anyone wants to know, just ask and I'll answer directly. 42041987425 04615 080315 42009899 48009967111 -0813 110216 34009595 54001763526 -0823 193409 31999290

There seems to be a pattern here of crediting certain posters with objectivity, so long as their opinions provide a winter-like lean haha

This has been the case over these last several weeks of mid winter pattern bias. However, I'm not personally sure that is supported as much moving forward. I guess we won't know until we can test that, huh. We've enjoyed episodic +PNA's alternating between -EPOs since mid Dec. That's about perfect - whether or not this has generated snow storms as a result ? mm, that's like the perturbation on the dice. I think the compression in the flow is a non-linear negative interference pattern but that's probably going to stop people from reading any further so will defer. haha But the PNA is different beyond this weekend's deal depending on the source. That bold is annoying! Meanwhile, there are hints in the spatial presentation of the ens means for elevating height along the EC/TV/SE regions, though.. That's a strong hint that there is an underpinning tendency for a pattern change away from the persistent NE Pacific dominating circulation mode - or at least a conflict. I also bear in mind the big heat burst phenomenon in February's and March's since 2012, occurring regardless of ENSOs and other longer term index aspect, and think of those as significant enough to be considered.

Euro's 00z ( I realize was not out yet when you posted this above....) was a big pig N/A trough with an endlessly 'denial enabling' hope that this is still 1996's climate ( lol ). Then there was the GFS with it's thing, which for all intent and purpose was continued on the 06z. If you're a winter enthusiasts ...these are quite alluring. If you're a end winter, warm weather enthusiasts, your frustration is really not that these models are engaging in those practices ... It's that they are doing so with -PNAs. Or so it it thought - Therein is the weird thing. Depending on what source, the teleconnectors are being computed somehow differently enough that there are varied index values. The CPC looks like it's trying to lift the PNA positive... Other sources are as low as -2 SD. Those to have whopper giantly different implications of the flow structure over the continent. One thing they all have, though, is a -EPO burst between now and Feb 4th ...5th... This will likely load more cold into N/A... It seems prior to ironing out the PNA in the longer term, that cold in the foreground is going to cause flow compression ( at minimum consequence, most likely ...). That supports a gradient footprint and rapid wave translations through the mid latitudes. The GFS more than less is honoring that expectation, though I wouldn't buy a car from it's selling points on any particular one of them. Just to identifying expected behavior is all... Not sure I buy the operational Euro's look until the PNA gets figured out beyond.. If the PNA become more "correct" as a low index state, however, while also the EPO index relaxes like both the EPS/GEFs suggest ( Feb 10 or so ), then we probably emerge more spring intrusion in the guidance with possibilities for early tastes even up here. I've been on the fence for 5 days now and the uncertainty dial has been stuck.

hoping this isn’t a cc variation of 2015

Needs to propagate downward or the correlation goes to very low skill

NAM with a wholesale correction S but it’s warmish