Typhoon Tip

Folks 'ill be within frozen spit distance of 0 tomorrow morning. Probably a lot of 6's

'Magine if nothing happened ? ho man.

The 9th is actually attempting a Miller B in the EPS mean ... It's a rather unusual approach. Typically, that storm type originates from the N/ or hybrid stream coming down the polar boundary, whilst lower +PP is situated over or N of our region, but this mean at 12z is approaching from the WSW. I think I see it though. The jet is still a polar branch - it's just doing a weird circuitous journey through the continent. Also, there is modest +PP N of the region to help enhance baroclinicity but it's in the ambience more so than a nodal surface high pressure whatever too much effort for this range

Anywho ... nice to emerge for a change into Saturday morning's coffee and danish time, with such a cornucopia of delicious Meteorological aspects to run through the social media mill, huh

Iiiii'd still be leery of the height compression. That shit smearing from southern Cali to SE of the Maritime is real. It's an opposing force that is always there - never mind why You'd rather have the above look than no look...sure. haha. But, it would be nice if that field was more neutral in the means, kind of like on the opposite side of the hemisphere you see above. That, underneath that Hudson node, would be the superior product. Above is 70% of that

thanks for saying that ( bold ...) ... See, I've been trying to impress to a room full of crickets for ...years really, that the NAO is purely a non-linear wave distributed forcing downstream of the Pacific resolution. In other words, these latter aspect trigger the NAO's circulation modes. Not the other way around... It may not be as much of a misconception as it used to be - thru a decade or so ago it was like a NAO chatty-kathy doll between the 1994 popularizing of it's identity, and the years of tsunamis miss-allocation of it that still to this day isn't completely dead. But when rock star Met used to say the NAO retro will cause an expo... blah blah, what they really should have meant was, the Pacific is hiding it's storm production from the PNA, by non-linear forcing. LOL ...you know, totally clear to everyone - Anyway, this so-far modeled event, with the PV split, appears to be completely harmonically caused, but at large scales. We're just seeing what an exceptionally well-tuned multi-vocal range chorus sounds like when they hit the sweet tone -

Fwiw, the split in the PV is evidenced all the way down to the 500 mb in the recent EPS - similar in the GEFs recency as well...

I know ...I was joking about this yesterday but partially serious... it's difficult to call out an ice STORM in this compression/high velocity, low residence time flow type. These systems are not standing wave icing events in this flow. Some of them are done in 6 hours. Even at moderate ZR clip, you're just not accreting warning levels - There's a tendency - no shit, huh LOL - to next level all hyperbole at the bus stops of social media.

I think what we are seeing there is really an exotic EPO explosion... It's not connected to an antecedent, down welled stratosphere warm intrusion/wave breaking event. If so, one would have happened in early January. So that's fascinating. Lol, I get the feeling folks don't care to engage in the theoretical discussion as to what's enforcing things, rather just getting them to take place... SSW's aside, it doesn't matter how we get there - once there ...that's obviously got an enormous potential to influence the mid latitudes on both sides of the hemisphere with that mobius structure like that. I don't think I've ever - personally - seen that kind of symmetric geometry so clean, so deep, and so removing of noise ... interesting.

Straight up is gone negative in the index derivatives, post ~ the 10th. This is, by the way is not SSW related. I know you're not asking or commenting, but I am just side noting: it precedes any perception of a SSW ( much less whether any burst is actually propagating downward, which take 20 days min for the correlation to kick in.. So, when the posters in here inevitably start sharing the gifted insights of the X poster claims connecting the ensuing -AO to all that SSW stuff, please take those grandiosities with a degree of incredulity. This is no statement attempting to abase a -AO. We've seen countless excursions of the AO index over the years, both positive and negative, whence they circulation modes gets there via other means. I'm just tired of the relentless application of the SSW complexity from people that appear to not really understand how it's occurrence mechanically influences the hemisphere.

We may not need waiting until after mid month ... In fact, I'd almost suggest that more likely players are troika through the 14th, then it may go cold and quiescent there after for awhile, because I agree with the compression - it's more than a mere observation; it's a large scale negative interference product that will limit the intra-scale events from ever being able to amplify. That said, the three system - their success notwithstanding in this statement ... - that occur ~ the 6th, 9 or 10th, and the 13th-ish, are occurring prior to any such enhanced compression and therefore for more identity conserved - which leads to actual events succeeding in taking place.

I slept in this morning so bite it - that 06z GFS for the 9/10th was a mise-en-science of winter joy... It reminded me of that event in 2015, the one that came thru as more of a protracted WAA, with a series of waves along it, with arctic air entrenched on the N side. Something like 15" occurred here from that, and I don't thing surface pressure of any of those two waves on the front back then were less than 1000mb by very much. But is snowed moderate with some blowing and drifting for 18 hours straight - I'm about going half from memory here, half from artistry because I remember it happened more so than the details. Anyway, this 06z is about the only way to get a longer duration event out of compressed, velocity saturated flow type. It's also interesting that the 18, 00z runs leading were not hugely different. Last I checked, the op Euro was in another universe - Haven't seen any other guidance.

Unlikely its speed is guided by the character of the pattern foot … Im sure you’ve heard us speak of “compression”? That’s synonymous with fast bigger event on the 9th but seems suspiciously too amped given those same constraints

The models haven’t been completely giving up on the 6th and now the GFS 00z with a quick moving moderate event. This is < 6 days out there too

Roads went white as soon as it switched here about a half hr ago 32 S

Yeah been watching that for the last couple hours as it's unzipped east from southern ny/n pa... I'm wondering what that looks like when it moves over the 35 air along rt 2

Perfectly stated!

For now hold... but geesh! not impossible that we're seeing the local hemisphere through winter goggles. I'm guilty of it too. I mean I mentioned heat burst and recent seasons and -PNA and all that.. but, hammering consistency by these materialized charts gets a bit overbearing. Models are going to struggle with that boundary - that's a slam dunk for poor performance. Unfortunately ...about top shelf premium error magnitude exists across where ever that is

It's really not that much different than the going ideas, it's just about 200 mi or so further N with the front. The problem is, there's like 50 to 60 degrees of variance across the fugger ... That 312 hour frame could be nearing 75 in S Jersey, while Kevin blacks out and we don't get to see his posts anywhere ( oh no! ) from icing - This gradient thing is getting rather excessive, all necessary jokes aside - I mean, you wonder if this is even possible..

hahaha ... I'm like

Ha ha omg ... dudes, we're not getting and ice "storm" in this kind of hyper velocity cosmic ray jet out of a quasar flow type. A 300 mile long icing strip gets through in 6 hours. Light to moderate fall rates blasting through so quickly would lower the semantic requirement to something beneath storm. LOL

I suppose it doesn't matter how exactly and/or what precedes the splitting of the PV into SPV layout ... If it splits, it splits. The key is whether it involves/couples to the troposphere - the mechanism in which that happens is through stabilizing the UVM toward DVM, and that then physically drafts warm air from surrounding the PV domain into the elevated domain --> warm nodes at high altitudes and blocking results... That's the very skinny on how that works. The thermal field projections off the GFS are not clear as to whether there is an actual thermal plume in the process of moving down in the column. There are warm layers, however - which could be the same thing just difficult to distinguish in the coarseness of the sigmas offered. Unless someone has a different more liquid source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ In any case, a split that couples would highly likely register as a -AO ... I would suggest if that happens sooner rather than 3 weeks from now, that it is not an SSW but just a planetary reshuffling leading to a similar result. A -AO from either source bears no difference to middle latitudes after the fact. It's a cold index mode and it comes down to where the hemispheric conveyors decide to layout for determining the mid latitude temperature distribution.

The 6th and the 9th look almost identical in the general 500 mb cinema of the 12z GFS run... Not sure how that will manifest and/or be different at the surface, but just looking at that one metric -

technically still a needle thread pattern foot.

Yup these high alt warm nodes are not uncommon. Most are not initiators … though the few that are, may ‘pulse’ in an out of the verification before the big burst occurs. I checked all this yesterday and though there is an impressive warm node modeled d8 or so in the 10s … at least in so far as the GFS, there wasn’t much of a subsequent penetration down to 30 .. 50. It may have changed in that guidance since yesterday re these lower sigma levels but I haven’t checked today. Even if so … folks, you’re looking at 20 days min before the AO response. If the index is neggie prior to that … it’s likely motivated from other physical influences, because the down welling propagation takes time to arrive thru the tropopause region to where it couples.