Typhoon Tip

Basically ... this has been a semi permanent feature for the last 9 weeks. It's a colder supply, but unfortunately negative interference heading east across the continent for cyclogenesis. This is the 18z op. GFS. It's Feb 3, and what/if anything that's happened on GHD is behind ... This run places the hemisphere right back in the same mode...

there's a pattern change post the 2nd or so of Feb... it's less than clear what that will mean. there's been gradient looks. there's been warm bursts looks. now, this 12z gfs is trying to change the season to spring across the deep south with a gradient the favors the polar boundary being displaced even NW of the OH River.. 00z Euro has the change in it's extended, and is varying as well .. but it did attempt a big storm on the inflection at 00z around 2nd/3rd.

Agreed, in so far as what this looks like now. However, it looks like it's got some validity, tho. It's just too damn early for the flow to go flaccid - that's a latter March climo... ( but then again with CC who knows, maybe we can chap some denial assess lol ) The pattern foot appears to still want to change beyond whatever that GHD thing is. But so long as there is that ens spatial synoptic positive anomaly up near Alaska like that, there's going to be cold available to the Canadian shield, which is an immediate implication for gradient n-s through the continent.

Yeah, it's interesting how at first there has been a numerical telecon suggestion for and around GHD. Then, the operational Euro opens the bidding up on the 00z run like that. I've always been a fan of that order of events in reality. The math points to a period of time, then the practicals emerge into it. Unfortunately, it's the only member I can see that really is. The ensemble members are about as vague as possible on anything in there. Pretty much incoherence. This is true in the GEFs and GEPs, too. What we have is a modest signal in the numerical telecons ( that just means the forecast' index states ... PNA, EPO ... etc). When the tele's indicate 'favorable' periods they can be more and less so; a clue to how much is in the magnitude of the deltas. In this case, this is a small +d(PNA) variant between the 28th-sh and the 3rd of Feb. Little bit of a longer read: It's on the front side .. or climbing PNA that parlays. But in general principle, any time an index enters a period of change, that's when events unfold. Some times, the event its self is beneath the numerical registry due to scale. I like to refer to those as sub-index events. A disruption in any mass field ( which is what a changing index indicates ) requires restoring of some sort, as/while the disturbance propagates its way through. This is how all weather occurs. But, it is happening at all scales. Some events will occur, but the governing perturbation in the field was so small that it was less distinguishable from noise. Example, an Alberta Clipper zips down the flow and stripes down a light snow event ... it eventually moves off the coast and escapes into the Atlantic. This type of event may not appear to be associated to index change of any kind, but the restoring was simply too small compared to the size of a index domain. They are the same "size" as the noise in the field. They are insufficiently large enough to move index. In fact, some of them can move down to the NJ coast, redevelop more robustly upon reaching the moisture/warmth of the Atlantic. These can develop fast enough to create winter impacts for the upper middle Atlantic and southern New England regions ... all of which took place with very little leading index changes. So, we are in wait still to see if more guidance/cycles therein start physically materializing a system there. The GFS had more so in prior runs to last night, but in these very recent runs it is kind of a garbage dying ...something. It seems the model's trying to rush the pattern change, which neg interferes. Probably bullshit... Then we range to the 00z op Euro which pretty much tried to double everyone's seasonal snow fall and then some to date, in a powerful coastal... GGEM, ... not considered a tie-break in this unknowable situation, has the SW ejected/opening trough entering the western OV on the 2nd, but has so much confluence it's hard to imagine that getting up here...

That matches the temp anomaly products that have routinely demoed warm air that morphs to the cold side only when it advects beneath 50 or so n. That’s been a recurring cinema. This pattern setting up in 1976 might have been more like cold at both ends

actually … PVD and BOS are both -1 right now.

This is like a “standard above normal” month … which after multi season acclimation must seem colder than normal.

GGEM did the best in mid range. persistently showing impacts while the other models were unilaterally opposed. The GFS did do well on one or two runs around D 4 or 5 but lost it.

shoulda put this over here There’s likely a pattern change after the GHD system. Not enough ens support at this time for a GH event, but the telecon numerics give some hope to winter enthusiasts. The higher res op versions led the way on this last event … but it was also n/stream driven. This next ordeal is a forced open transiently closed sw low that’s kicked down streamand acts quasi southern stream … different circumstance bearing no similarity. Afterward the extended signals the first real cold relaxation in several weeks - not talking about half day cutter warm intrusions … I mean the hemisphere synoptic scaffold. It may be a thaw or something else … there are conventional reasons that are in play that argue for an earlier winter exit. We’ll have to see what that looks like in 10 days to two weeks.

There’s likely some kind of pattern change after that GHD system …

tell them while this is happening, no less -

18z GFS signaling Groundhog Day again ... Only 11 days away, too, so very high confidence - Like all other systems this winter, this is modeled exactly the same - it's like we've been in the same pattern for 90 straight days. Very unusual... pattern gestation is typically 4 to 6 weeks. We've doubled that, marked just by the behavior of N/stream failing captures, and models still showing the same damn shit. It's basically because the ridge is too far west, so the flow east over the continent ends up too flat. in other words, needle thread as the southern piece out-paces.

Good thing we're finally losing the mashed up flow compression in the extended -

A remarkable adaptation of evolution ... only equaled by the advent of human deviance that happens upon the scene and decides to pack those preciously precarious protruding snout holes full of dog shit.

Low chance that Euro idea/bomb in GOM succeeds. That's a polar branch of the westerlies; one aspect that we cannot seem to shed is that whenever the polar branch flexes this season, the jet becomes overwhelmingly strong, and this stretches the wave lengths which then means the embedded wave spaces are moving fast. In principle, that thing's correction vector is thus pointed too late and speeding up. The only way to get that 'in time' would be retrograde the entire wave numbering...which I guess is plausible- just not likely. I'm more interested in the following aspect that is, for the time being, a Lakes cutter... but the antecedent environment is so cold ( and the GFS is very similar to this) both options end up snow to mix to drizzle with implications for triple point/dammed up the hilt. This follow-up wave is more born of a quasi-subtropical jet field. In fact, this has been bugging me ... I've been suspecting for a long while actually that there's a broad sweeping misconception going on out amid the ambit of Meteorology/planetary observing. There's a lot of notion out there that subtropical jets haven't been very well observed... I've been seeing them as just being displaced N of what previous generations were used to observing. If one looks beneath the curled up system out there over the 2nd (Euro), beneath that jet the only thing separating it from the Equator are 590 dm ridge nodal medium of general 582 heights. That strikes me as a laitude advance HC expression... I've read that the expanding HC was theorized as more of summer season aspect ( relative to hemisphere), but I don't think that's as true any more. The other aspect is, if we convert the geographic expanse into mechanics, the loss of HC expansion in the winter - I hypothesis - can be physically shown to be conserved in/as the observed faster hemispheres. SO, a trade off: we either have expanded HC, or ... if the HC isn't allowed to be expanded, the hemisphere speeds up as a conversion. But I'm sure most stopped reading this paragraph long ago... ha

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

12z oper. GFS and to some non-zero degree, so does the CMC, trying to activate matters during that 28th-2nd time period. It's not a robust signal, but there is a modest +d(PNA) heading into the period, while still non-exhaustive cold lingers. Something for winter enthusiasts to keep and eye on. I mentioned a couple few days ago that was our next 'suggestion' for an active period. The signal hasn't really improved or decayed - 'tie goes to the runner'

This has been a robust -EPO winter up to this point. Unfortunately .. there's also been a persistent idiosyncratic layout of the PNA in the means/verification; one that has been problem for better cyclone production. Namely, the western N/A ridge component of the total +PNA has largely biased too far west. When we think of or visualize the positive phase of PNA, there's a ridge axis aligned more typically eastern MT or the Dakotas. This winter, said ridge has in fact most of the time verified over the far E Pac ... only occasionally overlapping the far western continent. In a sentence, this is too far west. We've referred to the NAOs in the same way. "West based," "east based" ..etc. It's really the same concern. Skewing these mass field W-E-N-S of their "proper" field orientation, can seem minor if even invisible to the charts ( in this case however, +PNA biased west has been pretty damn coherent tho - ) but it distorts/interferes with expectations we associate to their different positive and negative phases.

I was kinda hoping they'd still have snow piles in the foreground of photos while tornadoes are in the background of the same image. But then I figure... no one owns and plows or shovels so -

At least through the first 10 days of Feb ... the spatial representation ( ens chart mean ) over the hemisphere, doesn't lend to bombastic heat. But these means go to 360 beyond, whence the flow looks annular more so than the previous canonical NE ridge with NW flow through Canada - those same ones that were formerly leading to fantastic expectations now poorly realized On the other hand, the numerical teleconnectors have been pretty persistently in a neutral EPO/ -PNA after about Feb 3 -ish. With a statically positive AO(NAO) also in the numerics. This is all presently true in he Euro weeklies, as well as the GEFs extended. So the rip and read of that is a warm tendency; then combining that with recent year's climate behaviors ... doesn't lend to protracting the cold biases/perceptions very deep into February. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that the spatial synoptic graphics begin to present more and more of what these telecons suggest - I've noticed in the past that the former does tend to lead the latter. So those two aspects above are somewhat in conflict, at least early on. I think after Feb 10 there's potential to go either early spring and a rather unceremonious exit, or loading perhaps one last time before doing that anyway. I think being realistic about the end game this year is that there are more reasons to presume some sort of warm occurrences and general earlier exit than not. But this is supposition... There's a subtle impression that some sort of event may set up still in that 28th to 2nd though. May be a Jan thread thing heh

Why do we have to have snow on the ground. "worried about losing ..." It's a'aight. It's a psycho-babble aspect of weather hobbyists and/or formal involvement that I've always personally grappled with trying to understand. I just for me, I agree with the boredom aspect, but it's not a prerequisite for me that it be snow. I could care less if there is snow on the ground - which is odd ... because if we are getting an active pattern, the consequence of that in the winter is often going mean putting snow on the ground. LOL. However, I don't need the active pattern to be snow, per se. Kind of getting into the subjective druthers thing... I think a long duration mix event with interesting ptypes, with dramatic temperature variance across relative small distances/boundaries... Basically, 'events' for me don't need to be snow. I tailor my involvement in this social media to curry to the preferences in here...but truth be told, a wild raining nor-easter with coastal surf spectacles and flood, and/or wind potentials on the coast et al, is all just as thrilling to me.

I wonder if relative to latitude X proximity to sea-level ( 300 ft ave elevations E of the Berks/Whites or so - ) if this is among the coldest air masses on the planet. -10 F here... Judging by the layout of resulting temps and given to the calm wind/decoupling, the -10 is likely topographic/'drainage' assisted. It may seem tongue-in-cheek, but if we're going to be running the warmest 'oh my god' state of climate this that and the other, we can't really be -10 over a large area. This has to be pretty uniquely our circumstance ?

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

man … that’s 30 secs I can never get back. 384 hrs of 18z gfs completely shut out the whole way.

kinda interesting this event in the south was really very ANA like