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Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. This is probably a well handled 6"er, won by the efforts of the American guidance types ... (sans the NAM and the "yellow" flag). Now with the late/recent arriving endorsement run by the top dawg model, which other than irrelevant minutia, was similar to the 12z GFS, this should be an easy call at this point. If it all did something else, that's a failure on the modeling and be done with it. There could be some lollypop 8" totals but I still have issues seeing this as a bigger QPF verifier due to constrains of A, storm translation speed; B, compression circulation mode capping aspects related to development potential. These limitations have been in place for days on this and that's not really changed.
  2. Not that anyone asked me but I would sans other guidance in lieu of a 50/50 blend of the 12z operational GFS and Euro and call it a day. Discounting all predecessor runs, too, as they were deltas on their way to what became a pretty starkly clearly converged solution. Not sure why a glance at RGEM ever drives one to sullen regret over previous interpretations and so forth. Do yourselves a favor
  3. Yeah agreed. Imho 24th/25th has been on the proverbial risk assessment desk for a long while. I remember Will and I bringing that up like 4 days ago? It's developing on a the inflection of a mass-field change. Events are preferential to those periods. Even this one tomorrow is on inflection - we mild today...transition tonight, boom tomorrow. It's matter of scaling. The deepest cold air earlier in the week is trying to roll off the continent. As it does ... heights tend to relax and the elephant sitting on a trampoline look becomes a little more flaccid. So.. a trough has been well timed in that space going back a few days ... more so, then at other times less, but keeps showing up. We'll see.
  4. Ironically among, if not the, most aggressive run so far out of all guidance/history up to this point for eastern zones, too .. it's like, wtf - I've been mentioning, but again..this run seems to have not only capitulated so hard, it's sweetening the deal by manifesting a CCB channel - that's clear in the QPF layout alone. No need to even cross section that aloft. Looks like E CT to PSM, NH for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro ticks W and the GFS just ends up winning this football game 42 to 7. Kinda sorta like this is trying to be the storm of the season - from such a shaky beginnings, too. LOL I'm not sure we're done with the 24th/25th by the way.
  5. Yeah, and one can only hope the court of public opinion bears that ( bold ) in mind the next time, when they "need" the GFS to be right and the Euro to be wrong. ...but we dream ...
  6. there's actually a CCB stinger for a couple hours as the low scoots out. Euro shows up all tardy to the war room and says, "Hey everybody, by the way - "
  7. So it is ... heh true wow moment for us nerds ( LOL ) Wholesale capitulation really just happened. ... Unprecedented in the storied history of the GFS vs Euro, whence the Euro concedes so vastly in favor of the GFS. If you place the 36 hour illustration of these two, 12z solutions, side by side, while considering their history in coverage of this event, their differences are so minor that you'd objectively have to consider this as > 90% correction of the Euro toward the GFS. For all intents and purpose, total - I mean, they're never going to be 100% anyway. This is like 90th percentile likeness at this point. GFS left; Euro right Not sure if this some how Euro diminishing quality returns, vs perhaps improvement in the GFS (grudgingly having to admit -). They've both been thru with upgrade mill in recent decade. It's an interesting question. I think also ... attribution is causing model performance overall to be impeded; compression is intrinsically more difficult on guidance technology, and we just seem to have more of that as a seasonal predicament. Either way, I've never seen the Euro gather up all its belongings, sell the farm and bodily move into the GFS' neighborhood ( and I mean like right next door! ) just 30 or 36 hours ahead of anything.
  8. shit... hey Will can you move our migraine discussion to the banter thread - i thought I was doing that. lol. that musta seemed weird -
  9. I was seriously asking you if your migraines are clinically defined, or if you are just calling them that ... like euphemistically. People just say in passing that they have "such a migraine" but there's a certain defined set of physiological events that set the migraine phenomenon apart from 'bad headaches'. I know this stuff, because I am a lifer... have been since adolescence. I had my first aura at 9 years old. Now, yes ... one can suffer aura and also non-aura migraines. But, by and large, most proper and real migraine encumbered individuals experience some form or another of aura, usually visual, during the initial stages of an attack; but it can manifest in other physiology signifying the onset of the migraine event. The migraine event, in the latest NCBI ( National Centers of Biological Information or NIH, National Institute of Health ), suggests cascade "Potassium flushing" takes place through the neurons of the brain, temporarily destabilizes the critical sodium - potassium ( negative positive ion gate ) differential across cell membraine. If the delta between Na- and K+ electrolytes are not maintained within range ( for whatever reason, and that is related to genetics and environmental ... which is makes for nightmare individual diagnostics and triggering ), the K is released - thought to be a mutation that serves a function of 're-setting' the gate differential to be at crucial ratio. It is important to know this stuff ... because, new aura migraines at middle age, whence the patient has no or very limited prior life-history, is significantly correlated/increasing stroke risk. Those that are life sufferers, however, this correlation is less; the underlying triggering mechanism is not the same, nor necessarily caused by risk factors associated to a broader spectrum of life styles and/or special circumstance that lead to latter life onset of the condition. The science has come a long way. Medications are useful, but there are often side effects...etc. etc, like all chemistry -based prevention, they're never absolute and may also have secondary risk factors. Usually a tailored approach, that combines diet and other life styles, with medications... For me, I never went the medication route. One thing about life-suffers, migraines appear to be gestational modulating. Usually around between 38 and 50 years of age ... patients report that while aura still takes place, the ability to function and straight up tolerate the pain sequence of the total migraine event, are greatly improved. I am now in this latter population myself So, ... 20 to 30 min of aura doesn't ( or hasn't in recent years ... ) immediately preceded an elephant standing on my head, while a Nazi's experiment with peripheral neuropathy ... A couple of prophylactic Advil ( more so a placebo -) and the headache is more dull in nature. I have recently found cutting out simple carbs .. if not entirely, strictly reducing them to very low weekly consumption ( like I don't ever eat white bread, white pasta, soda pop, refined fruit juices - basically, all industrialize sugar concentrates of any kind, period ), and the aura frequency has dropped to almost never. I had never tried this before... I actually got into doing this dietary measure for other reasons.. .but noticed along the way, 'huh, i have had a migraine in months'
  10. See ...right or wrong, this above to me is what this event should be. It's limiting the gaudy numbers because the whole of this is still constrained to a lower ceiling. And it happenstance ( if not correctly so - ) ends up where a kind of super blend is. It fits the limitations ... it's painting middling event, which all told -. Could be wrong but I'm not sure I see where the "positive bust ceiling" is very high You know, I was thinking this this morning. There have been seasons in the past where we wouldn't have even threaded this event. We were so bountiful of storm chances, verifying them .. with embarrassments of rich results, that this would have been margin-notes consideration and not worth it .. just an interesting aside -
  11. why are some of you ignoring trend It's an important factor in deterministic methodology/philosophy - in fact, ..it may be the most important ( different discussion) The 00z --> 06z --> 12z NAM was an improvement, steadily, albeit [likely too small for some users ] just incrementally so. There's this tendency to look at the chart, in hand, and throw hands and forget that time is a huge variable in all this shit. We can't just negate where we've been. It's not a monkey-see-monkey do, folks. Saying the NAM is like the Euro, and walking away ... it's not abundantly clear to me that that point is less meaningful when both are in a state of delta in subsequent runs.
  12. Yeah, I just wrote the same thing actually. ha probably about an hr behind everyone. it looked to me like the low is still non-committal out there per the 06z run. It was however at least picking a center amid that open pressure well that's more on the western side - mm a nod perhaps. But while still stubbornly not moving the well, itself, west just yet. It's also about 4 or so mb deeper. Another nod. The QPF elements are also "filled" in more so in total. This all gives the affect of west capitulation, but it's not really convincing until - I just need to see this really unquestionable commit to a west adjustment, and intensity, 12z today or it's too late. This will fairly go down as a Euro bust if the 12z mimics the 06z, then the GFS ends up scoring. Technically, given it's performance window is typically 4.5 days lead, you could almost assign the failure - but a, nothing's happened yet ( ha, can't forget that) and b, the ultra compression/constraining aspects are deterministically challenging enough. I think it's more an achievement by the GFS ( should this storm prevail more in it's design ), than an indictment by the Euro, because of that limiting factor. But that's as far as I'll go. This can't go on beyond this particular 12z run. As is, it's going to be an ECMWF.org core engineer's Asperger dream come true case study to figure out what went wrong, if not very right.
  13. Actually comparing recent operational GFS runs... the 18 to 00, to 06 continuity is exceptionally high tolerance actually. Other than completely irrelevant, ultimately meaningless variance from run to run, those are indistinguishable from one another (ha, does that sentence get the point across ? ) Pick a difference or we take your first born daughter? Fine! the QPF is increasing. But beginning with 18z/54 hr --> 00z/48 hr --> 06z/42 hr ... that kind of continuity is too clad, and just "feels" like it's going to be more right than the Euro - it just does. But again ...I still hold some reservations about the upper ranges of QPF for all the reasons that are ad nauseam at this point -
  14. 50/50 average of the RGEM and Euro formulates a solution that fits both a track expectation, and the theoretic limitations, which are constrained by the total flow circumstance. Seems all guidance are somewhere in between those goal posts, anyway. The RGEM and GFS intensity seems to exceed - by a little. We can certainly get some fast deepening rates but I've not really seen low pressures translate across a chart as quickly as this one is modeled to do, regardless of source. Keeping this less than those 10"+ totals wouldn't shock me. On the other hand, the Euro, hesitatingly admitting ( I wouldn't call that overnight a true cave ), is more a sign that it won't coup and win a miss ( at least ). Pistol to head, ..it comes 60 .. 70% in the end, and the other side "leans" east for the rest. But that's still in principle just a blend of everything. Most of the uncertainty in this - to me - is the amt that can fall by a cyclone that's moving near max possible velocity, one that also "should be" held down in intensity by the constraint of a compressed limitation.
  15. Still think you guys are looking too closely for details, which are gonna be different at this range and this particular situation from run to run … which are really too minute to signify much I was looking for wholesale changes… like a collapse southeast by 150 miles on the track and so forth because that’s what’s really at stake. You’ve got a very trustworthy guidance source in fact the most trustworthy guidance source that completely whiffing the area I think that’s what we should be looking for big changes
  16. I'm inclined to agree ... this situation is different. I mean it just is... stepping back and looking at that trough, it's hard to imagine all that consensus having a different configuration pathway. It would be easier if this [ probably very ] rare scenario, for the correction vector to go away from the EPS mean. I think technically the operational was on the western envelope? That might be a "yellow" flag
  17. To me this is a relay of forcing, which nets to keeping the track similar if not spot on the previous run cycle. The gross, the track would shift E, but the subtle relaxing is actually allow cyclogen parameters to max more. So the east is then compensated by a deeper slightly west feedback = the same position by a mb or two deeper. It really is the better for it for snow enthusiasts. Sometimes... we get lucky when threading the needle
  18. Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that. Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late. I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4
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