Typhoon Tip

huh I was just discussing this over in SNE's March thread. It's the rate of change that is the killer. Part of that abstraction is that if the rate of change in the climate, exceeds species' adaptation rates ... one of two things happen: a, extinction b, diaspora into an alien ecology, which is usually not good for the new ecology ... because it in itself does not posses the capacity to adapt to the change of having hordes of arriving opportunistic climate refugees. And I mean "clime refugees" not just human beings but all migrations up and down the biological kingdom. Eventually enough food pyramids collapse and then, even the superior adaptation of human kind can't keep up. In fact, that is already happened... The Serbian climate refugees of the early 2000s. If enough of this happens... then you get into breaching geopolitical boundaries, leading destabilization. Wars have begun that way... and it becomes a domino scenario kicking off. Civility goes first ... organization is a construct of convenience and begins after dust settles; reconstruct after the shit stops hitting the fan. That's on the other side of the CC induce firewall - metaphorically speaking. What lies out there... when the ability for "greener pastures" may take a 1,000 years to recover

If the +PNA fails to materialize between the 20th and 25th I'd be happier with that outlook. It's going to be a bit dicey through the week if it does, however. Like I was saying earlier, that is a window for some sort or the other in colder returns. Not 100% sold ... However, I am also not making it up about the +PNA. The correlation doesn't take a backseat because it's March and moods and emotive modes have switched gears - it is what it is.

Not at all ... Or shouldn't be. Unfortunately, in this increasingly intolerant douchy civility that morphed culture over the last 30 years ( I blame the Internet/socio-technological negative feed-back on stability but that's a vast digression that results in a 784 page dissertation - ), you'd be hard pressed to find someone that thinks chalk isn't taboo But the problem is way, waaaay outside the bounds of just preferences ( I figure you know that ..just sayn'). Like I was just mentioning to Roosta, tongue-in-cheek ( but is unfortunately true - ), the problem with CC is the rate of the change. It's been exceeding species adaptation rates. When that happens, one of two things happens: either they go extinct, or ... diaspora to an alien ecology where they cause all kinds of havoc to the indigenous ... and end up causing 2ndary or tertiary synergistic negative feedbacks because the new ecology cannot adapt in itself to the arriving opportunists... There's really no end to that rabbit hole of complexities.

That's an interesting one ... 1stly, agreed with storm need ... a dopamine inject into the 'crowd dynamic' would do wonders for people to at least become amenable to listening, maybe even considering. I mean, ever try to talk sense into an inconsolably irate teenage girl that just broke up with her boyfriend ? This storm depravation thing is 10 X's worse because you're dealing with something creepy similar to a heroin addicts withdraw syndrome. 2ndly... the problem in why-for there's increasing arguments with CC is that one side is getting triggered by a sense that holy shit, there's a real existential threat here ... Whether or not that culminates in extinctions ... particularly of us, the current leadership of this very powerfully influential sovereignty that we take for granted is fucking making that happen.

We might be at risk for some sort organized storminess out there. Maybe even a high height late blue snow. I think Scott might of mentioned something a while ago? but the +PNA seems to be gaining some momentum. These subtleties for increasing amplitude between the 20th and 25th fit that.

some may find these projections and observations interesting ... CPC • Should the MJO manage to emerge over the West Pacific during Week 3, low-level westerly wind anomalies over a warmer than normal West Pacific Warm Pool could result in a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that would further erode the La Niña

They'll take those arguments to their graves ... metaphorically gasping at their last breath for enough to utter a last sentence about why it's not CC while they are dying from a cocktail of direct and indirect causalities.

The problem is that more that half the population does not understand the complexities and non-linear synergies that happen BECAUSE of CC.

But is that "science," or is that a personnel logistics problem ... It's getting harder to be a data driven org when outside, non-self-determining decisions are going around gutting their ability to be precise in that regard. Just one example that is relevant to current context: the NOAA/NWS losing critical infrastructure personnel (when they are already hurting no less ) I mean... duh. Right? I'm not making any kind of political statement here, but the reality is what it is... and a lot of these sites with questionable data, and even after the fact, how/if the data is adjudicated ... the whole of it is being further inhibited by those actions. It's a little challenging for me to hold accountability against the NOAA given that "attack" on their abilities - I've spoken to NWS people and they are struggling.

gaslighting people's experience with winter is difficult when the climate does the gaslighting already - hahaha Hey, check out this nerdy neat demarcation of how this air mass back-doored down the M/A https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I think it more interesting that the bulk has occurred since 2000

You have to break it down to hyper discrete logical pieces to a lot of readers because they don't understand the abstraction of it in the generalized prose you provided above. For lot more readers of the hoi polloi than we may think, when some example acts say more like 1978 ... "it must not have been influence by CC then". That sort of misconception is exposed when you read their content - that's why I spent the time to write that out in hyper specificity above.

It is mid to late March by then ... March is a fickle time of year and lower performance tendencies in guidance etc..is common. A +PNA cooler profile period, it could all be fake I guess. I certainly hope so ... I don't know what it is this go. I'm particularly longing for greener leas. Those horizon thunder heads. The aromas of summer... Long bike rides. Running outside. Baseball. Beach/surf runs... It just hits me this year. Yet we're staring down the barrel of April - realistically we have a long way to go, huh

We live here in reality bro

Moving forward, the PNA is offering a new + bump in the projections out there heading into the early 20s. Just may want to bear that in mind. The prior outlook in that regard suggested a neutral-negative index, with +EPO ...and full recovery in the polar fields, so a more convincing and pithy warm-up should manifest - should have by now in the operational runs... It's interesting the operational runs (EC/GFS/GGEM) have never really bought into that, and still haven't. The 00z runs kept up with it ... look like they're scheming away at the physics to figure how to abase ... Then, I checked the PNA this morning and it's not so clear anymore. New neutral-positive modulation has set in ... Sometimes this happens when, though rarely, the weight of the index gets fails to the lower probability of just a few members. It looks like the telecon is now moving toward the these solutions that keep plumbing troughs. There's time for that signal - if legit - to mature further and to then manifest a colder scenario in that time range. I'm a big fan of trend. The resistance by the operational run types to commit more fully to a real and convincing warming in lieu of these single day warm sector things... that is a trend that favors colder when comparing against the telecon - which appears to now be in delta? The cooler indicator is currently in the lead. We'll see how things materialize, but I'm going to be watching that time range for some piece of shit useless late event or cold, either way.

I don't know ... I had snow on the ground for 9 weeks straight with primarily BN temperatures and these aspects are incontrovertible - As critical aspect to the tone of winter, that's longer snow on the ground than I've seen in some years that boasted much higher total snow amounts overall spanning the last several decades. I don't know what metric/combination therein people are needing to qualify matters, but in so far as the objective reality of those empirical values above, this was not a "short" winter against the last 30 years of climatology. Not here in this region of Massachusetts.

I like this ...—summer insolation at 65°N hit ~525 W/m² (vs. ~475 W/m² today). considering that today ... ~475 W/m2 is causing so much black-body feed-back accelerated warming/melt due at least in part to lost albedo. heh

Lol.. well it doesn't matter to ask that question any longer, we're under the proverbial water. Anyway, yeah .. I mean it's just my reasoning on the matter. Taken fwiw. We cannot "un" integrate CC. It is intrinsic to the environment, most importantly, at all times in perpetuity. What we experience within that reality at times seems lesser outlandish, at others .. we observe unusual events. It sort of then comes off like the explainer gets to believe it there was no CC contribution because 'we can't attribute everything' This is spin to avoid acceptance when this occurs. "Integral" to any paradigm means that without it, the paradigm does not exist. The fact that it paradigm exist in this case and context, precludes the possibility that CC did not contribute. Philosophy course work is like this... an annoying sentence structural popsicle headache... I tried to intimate ... and probably not very well, that it's all a matter of how obviously evident CC coherence is/was... There are processes that offset ... "masking" for lack of better word, the integral nature. Right now out the window... it is 46 F. There are no leaves on the trees, and the snow has just recently left the front yards of SNE's interior countryside. We've had a couple days recently over 60, a shallow front corrected the temperatures back to "reality". And so the thaw/seasonal change is underway. It looks completely unremarkable. CC is embedded in that unremarkable setting.

Just a wee little observation that I'm highly confident 0 people have noted ...heh This frontal sag with pesky polar high obtruding into an otherwise warm and actually happy week, was remarkably well handled by all guidance going back 8 or so days. Really outstanding accuracy from an astoundingly long lead regarding a small variance that imposes a very large sense of longing - sound like New England? lol it's true though. Outlook nailed!

I'm not intending to refute any person in what you are saying - I wasn't part of the discussion... However, one thing that bothers me a bit about what is becoming a kind of cozy mantra to hide behind: ... "silly to attribute everything to cc" Here's a philosophy worth the thought - everything that exists in reality, IS happening in a realm of CC. So I'm not sure how that can really be disconnected from any given event or anomaly's profile. It is in fact more mathematically sound to suggest that everything has attribution - profiling what took place really becomes a matter of how much of it can be identified, versus how much was hidden by offsets that obfuscate the observation. You know ... being submerged under water, one cannot ever claim a moment of dryness. Just trying to offer a bit of objective reasoning to the discussion.

yeah, I don't what or where that is... who cares - the point was the sky/cloud type.

Amen. altho ... i've been wondering if we are somewhat gas lit by media's aggrandizing. Maybe when stuff is happening everywhere in the world, as though we are being left out ... but in reality, there's an oversell of disaster/dystopian drama. LOL. Then I look at some disheartening imagery and cinemas of walls of fire ... or 48" of snow in 12 hours ... or 101 F March heat waves in lower Eurasia ... or whatever and nah. I do think there is something to it where we are seeing a mollified profile history, probably because of limitations that are geologically built in. Like, heat ... we can get damn hot. But only damn hot. We can't get the 109 like it was recently at Hetahrow AP in London, or the 120 like it was in lower B.C. Canada, Washington and Oregon like it was in 2021. We just really can't geophysically generate those temperatures. Maybe some crazy year we'll get the 103 in frequency... We can make headlines where say... 102 occurs at Logan 13 times the same summer. if that would ever happen that's our "109" ? something like that. Or take wind... being east of the elevations of 2K, the elevation drops out, so air density rises as you head east of roughly western CT to Manchester NH to Fryeburg ME type of axis... That alone may be why all our "omg we're all gonna die" wind forecasts end up manageable. It's no wonder why when we do get a wind explosion, they are over the SE coastal plain, in fall, when the near by SSTs are warm and this hyper mixes momentum from llv jet fields more readily down to the surface there. Then there's convection. We've had our 1953's and 2010 tors... but those are fleetingly rare. Seattle Washington probably doesn't want to hear our complaints when it comes to convection, but regionally relativity aside ... we all know where we stand when it comes to baseball hail and regular wall cloud filmography. Also, limited by geomorphology and proximity to colder ocean in the summer. There's also a non-linear wave function built in where convection that has any chance in the first place, will "dive" S early as part of the geo limitation, and this effectively robs us... It's a complicating model of reasons to go less. So the return rate on big deal scenarios isn't worth the wait. Really, our profile is best painted through big bomb nor'easters. That's been our bread and butter since the dawn of awareness. Unfortunately, part of the awareness, very recently in geological time, is an unsettling emergent reality of lessening bread and butter ... We definitely feel hungry. This part of the world is probably circumstantially going to be a kind of protected enclave while the rage of climate change continues to deny us our way to glory while incinerating the rest of the world with giant events. Invest in realestate I guess, because the climate refugees are going to start coming in waves. haha

spring warm sector types often fail to produce along the trailing b-clinic zone/cold frontal aspect because they are theta-e challenged. It's not unusual for warm air masses, particularly prior to continental green-up, to be low DP transport. In 1998, March 29, 30 and 31, we made 89, 91, 90 up at the UML weather lab in the heart of Merrimack Valley, Lowell. But the DPs was like 30 F. The models are trying though. The Euro's RH field shows a 925 mb plume of >70% over the NJ/Try State state region at 18z Saturday, which is probably some SE Coastal/Atl moisture being entrained and a nose of theta-e modeled up the coast. Whether that happens in reality, we'll see. Anyway, if you took this synoptic and transported it to early June, you'd probably get a better convective production and heavier rains associated with that coherent c-front advancing toward the coast. Also, keep in mind, the model layout for QPF will also look 'sharp' like that in regimes were the QPF is convectively driven, anyway. It's not the same as strataform rain production, with swaths of mulit-inch you might see on on the N slope of a stationary boundary and/or coastal type systems..

Hope everyone's enjoying your cold air today ...