Typhoon Tip

yeah, i don't down play the severity, therefore rarety ...and the 'unavoidables' that come with that sort of occurrence. but i'm going to be sus about the regional 'maintenance' aspects until i hear otherwise, which is sort of intimated above here.

i'm 4.75 (close est) over here in Ayer, which the nashoba valley drains geographically into the m valley. ... not that terrain per se has anything to do with it. but i can confirm the dearth in the region.

for what it's worth ... https://phys.org/news/2025-01-earth-hottest-year-big-breached.html

ah yeeeah, you know me - i'm not one to shy away from cc attribution if it's sus in a situation but that? wrooooong! dude i recall big ice storms and 5" sleet bombs mixed with snow cake leveling grids down there since antiquity. in fact, you could argue more that NOT having more than 1 in the last 25 years is the signal - not the fact that one is occurring at all here. ..unless i'm missing something - oh, okay, maybe he's being snarky. hope so -

straight up "firestorm" though

Here's some linkage/resource material for above https://phys.org/news/2025-01-global-temperatures-critical-15c-milestone.html https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights?utm_source=pressrelease&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=gch24

You didn't ask me but what has me spooked for winter enthusiasm are these inferences, perhaps compounding one another: A: Yeah, the MJO desk is echoing those Weeklies - so it would seem. Whether they have seen them or not it is unclear if they are incorporating them into their present outlook philosophy - they defer to just a linear correlation to wave spacing "...• While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could begin toward the end of the month or in early February..." B: La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries. This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest. And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency" C: The last 10 years of eastern continental climatology has verified very usually, at times 'shockingly so' is not a poor adjective, warm excursions in February's. We're not talking the thaw times of lore, with one or two days into the upper 50s or low 60s and a continental snow line retreat exposing one or two eager Crockus shoots of lore. These events featured temperatures of June east of the Apps cordillera soaring past 75 reaching 80 between D.C. and PWM. They were historic setting numbers, of course, but what is of more importance to me is that it happened multiple years out of the past decade - regardless of ENSOs... And we may as well include the March 'heat bursts' that were of equal anomaly in this group. This to me should not be ignored. SO... (A + B + C ) / 3 = ? ...just summing the concepts and dividing for the mean, in this case, should be a red flag ( perhaps a pun there?) Having said all that. I'm not sure the MJO desk has their part of this quite right. I was looking over the temperature composites for the RMM, and they are pretty cold through phase 3 - which is still two weeks away - and it's not clear whether the wave will be robust in 4 from this far away in time. Maybe they have some early non-zero confidence for the temporal horizon. who knows.

is this a 'madoki nina' then ? the behavior of the sst ( which is just one metric among a few used to gauge enso vitality - i know..) seems more centrally based over the recent 10 or so days...while the whole thing is moving west. the eastern end of 3.4 and 1+2 are actually warming. this could be a function of intraseasona wind stressing biases. like a la nina low level wind burst that doesn't represent the whole season? not sure i've seen a negative 3.4 while it's warmer on either end too often. interesting. by the way, this enso appears better couple ( imho ) then other's over he last 15 or so years. it may be temporary who knows. just from what i can tell.

this is purely based on anecdotal history but i recall more numerous sa wind events back in the 1980s and 1990s. i don't personally recall as many observed through the last 20 years, actually. if there's validity to this latter aspect, that may atone for build up of fuels. enter an 'out of control forestry' lapses of responsibility, as i think Will mentions, and that creates a sort of compounding of the antecedent condition. if civility is gong to decide to live in a region with specific vulnerability traits ( particularly when knowing what those are after 200 years of observation ...), then the relevant prepping is an onus of the civility. the other aspect that kinda of irks me in this is that a sa wind event was an increasing confidence for occurrence over the week prior to the event. were there no safe-guards and/or pre-planning strategies, relative to this specific forecast/threat? this is long becoming a tired leitmotif, where these disasters could have at least had some percentage of their horror mitigated by planning. something, anything other than indolence or indifference - whatever the cause was for inaction. and most importantly, actual implementation of strategy in a timely fashion. i get it that a fast moving curtain of bible fire is not going to be preventable - but between fire proofing technologies, and wildfire fuel management ( probably negligence spanning generations...), the priorities of the civility were clearly elsewhere spanning many decades. it is really a societal scaled faulting and lapse of ownership and responsibility. are we too affluent as a civility over here, and don't value our shit enough - and figure we'll just buy the future all over again? i guess that's one way to live -

okay i see... follow up on the above. the euro actually has a barely discernible road-kill wave smearing it's guts through the compressed field along the ec... it's conserved just enough mechanics with that to create a minoring wave and a burst of snow. it has a much more potent s/w that is rotating around the nascent spv playing catch-up ... but that wave space has just about zero b-c to work on by then so it's basically a big bag of interference amid more nut sacrificial cold. thank god, right ? it wouldn't shock if there's nothing even there but a strong front but we'll see

op ed it's probably my age. i'm sure this does not reflect the sentiments of most in this social media. this ballz achin' cold with legit storm potentials ... seemingly preordained to dice rollin' into oblivion thing really has me ready to check out on winter at a personal historically early date. the next "quasi legit" chance for an organized ...anything to track, is between the 18th and 21st - probably centered on the 20th if the thing even exist. what is happening is another major modal shift in the telecon derivatives of all three ens means: eps/gefs/geps. it is also now showing up wonderfully in the spatial synoptic layouts: strong -epo burst. i would call it a burst as well, because in a day and a half-worth of time the index careens from +1 to -1, while the cinema of the above three ... match that numerology with a rather flashed onset of strong far ne pac/alaskan sector positive anomalies. the operational versions are all onboard. the gfs/euro/cmc, all show a large scale deposition of cold into canada, a loading event that is pretty much unabated. intense polar-arctic frontal event ensues bringing the goods into the conus ... it is out along the leading edge of that frontal sweep that the operational runs are trying to time s/w spacing. what's interesting is that even the individual run cycles that don't have much deep layer s/w potency are tending to create some sort of event during the total transition out there. example, the 00z euro was lack luster with s/w mechanics, but ends up with a wave on the front and a decent moderate event ( 9 or 10 days out). the 06z gfs on the other hand, has a powerful s/w ripping n ... which is likely over done given the gfs' ocd with gradients out in time... blah blah. there's likely to be tremendous thermodynamic potential thru the period of time due to the shear rapidity of these larger scaled changes - it could be that all these ways and means to get an event around the 19 or 20th ... are just a result of poorly resolving any random trigger, fake or real notwithstanding. the rotor drafts aft of a 747 taking off from dullas might be enough i'm sorta waiting on the pna. even a low frequency movement positive might be an indicator for legitimacy. that's occurred ... but it's too new for now.

that's interesting ... wasn't aware this synoptic nuance was in place. yeah, this would be a recipe in early April for massive diurnal given those initial conditions. ...not so sure in jan low here was 19. presently 22+ full sun coming in almost parallel to earth. dead calm. it'll be interesting if there's graphical hint later on if/when the mixing level pops to the higher deck.

we have to also keep in my that water vapor is a huge component in the total themodynamics of the total atmospheric gradient. and, energy storage in in the atmosphere is non-linear. ... check that - i'm pretty sure that is true. a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. the poles are warming, but the energy stored in wv in beneath the ferrel latitudes is ballooned well beyond and is assisting in the gradient steepening.

that's me being a dick head on purpose because i thought it was funny

yes

i'm not 'being defensive' ... where are you getting that impression heh no, i'm literally giving you the objective numbers and telling you it doesn't conceptually fit. look, you made a blanket statement that our woes were the pacific - that's not true. it's not. that's not me being defensive.

gotta go back to elementary physics on that one. everything in nature happens because A ≠ B ... if A = B nothing happens. when A ≠ B then either A --> B or B --> A ... the strength in which "-->" occurs, for the purpose of this context, is dictated by the thermodynamic gradient - or the steepness between heat source and sink the gradient between the polar regions, and the equator. ... the polar regions are warming faster than the equatorial region... but, they have a long way to go - below a threshold ( of sorts) still. because they have such a deep hole in the total global thermal budget to begin with, the gradient - for now - is steepened by the regions outside of the polar regions. there's compendium of examples of how this manifests in global pattern and wind behaviors -

i have cited papers that describe this, both empirically and theoretically, in the past. this a public forum. not an academic circle. i get it that those efforts were either unseen and/or ignored. ... most likely because it doesn't fit with people's internal narratives, wants and delusions. not a problem. no one in here is ultimately at risk of accreditation. this is a support group anyway. lol also, there is a reason commerical airlines are seting air-land speed records on west to east flights over the last 20 years ..for more frequently then those types or records were typically broken. you know ..just at an acme sort of vision, you know what's going to happen ... in some many 10s or hundred years or whatever it takes, the polar regions of the planet will have eventually warmed enough that the total gradient goes back the other way ... and the balanced flow everywhere become less aggressive.

predominate does not mean always, mate your negating the +pna, there have been those 60% just eyeballing this from cpc's records. granted this is every month - i did not parse out just djf. feel free to do so. but did it ever occur to you that global shift in climate might also favor the -rna basal state? 2015 0.61 0.59 -0.23 -0.15 -0.16 -0.17 0.76 0.08 -0.92 1.78 -0.19 0.78 2016 2.02 1.48 0.73 0.87 -1.06 -0.70 1.02 -0.88 0.18 1.24 1.52 -0.35 2017 0.28 0.18 0.27 0.40 -0.31 1.01 1.86 0.23 -0.33 -0.40 -2.06 0.89 2018 0.40 -1.03 -0.89 -0.91 -1.34 0.51 -0.37 1.27 1.44 0.21 0.24 0.86 2019 0.83 -1.08 0.25 -0.61 -0.29 0.12 1.11 1.18 2.00 -1.02 -0.06 0.18 2020 -0.24 0.17 -2.17 -1.18 0.21 0.70 1.73 1.82 0.75 -1.13 0.24 1.58 2021 0.19 -0.31 -0.97 -1.05 -1.35 0.67 0.56 0.95 0.44 1.13 0.72 -2.56 2022 1.01 0.66 0.13 -0.74 -0.83 -0.31 2.54 0.79 0.21 0.17 -0.73 -0.66 2023 0.21 -0.64 -1.63 -0.42 -0.86 0.69 1.15 0.45 1.06 1.20 0.55 1.21 2024 0.45 0.09 0.45 -0.65 -2.74 0.97 2.60 -1.01 1.34 0.04 0.06 1.70 if you want the storm behavior-assumptive correlation to those indices to be fair, you have to consider both sides. we say in one hand the cc is real. but then refuse the viability of any given storm system, nor their over-arcing pattern, as behaving accordingly.

what is meant by awful Pacific, tho - we just agreed that apparent compression/shearing/velocity soaking is taking place in both neg and pos pnas and regardless of epos. look, it's not the pacific. its the planetary medium. that's just it - sorry

i get it .. but my point was, when do we get the overrunning? 'cause multi- year result set sorta suggests not often enough to matter the flow compression means fast. everything speeds up. the basal flow rate. the waves themselves. everything has a shorter residence time in any given location. that also makes it difficult to stasis an overrunning scenario for very long, either. trying to get you to see that without my saying so - ha

ehhhh the compression has been persistent. it's been that way during +pna/-epo's too

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to. the set ups are rolling out too fast

it's about limitation... compressing mediums means that there is less conserved at shorter wave lengths. this limits cyclogen mechanics like you say, but yeah ... if overrunning scenarios but those just don't set up that often. i see one of those legit per year and some years none. other years more frequent if pistol to head but how many overrunning deals have we had in the last decade? not sure but they weren't enough to commit to memory

i'm ad nauseum at this point having to see gfs charts that look like this ... ...i'm ready argue at this point that winter will under perform snow so long this flow compressed appeal predominates if one is objective in their imagination ... they might actually red flag this as a cc thing, too. because we need the cold, but we seem to not get the cold unless it is compressed. that's a smoking gun for having ambient resting heights too high prior to the arrival of he cold pattern.