Typhoon Tip

i'm hoping that the mounting cost of these idiocratic absurdities, to go along with the shear ludicrous specter of it all, forces a "correction" - leave it at that

The 06z GFS has DPs in the upper 60s there in 10 days ...

-4 Looks like elevation ( of course ) dependent. +5 to -5 type thing

may very well be the coldest it gets this season, and it's timing on essentially the climate nadir interesting

guess we can add this to the list "An eastward propagating Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO historically favors a warm response over the central and eastern CONUS, which would be a welcome change to the frigid conditions experienced recently for much of the Lower 48."

What's the heat like south of the equator so far this djf ?

Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast. Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours. That said, there are long lead indicators that show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge. No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s. Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees. - those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead.

LOL ... here's a vastly easier prediction: this course work will incense some fights ... let's just enjoy the deep winter vibe out there today for now. haha

Obviously ... buuuut, that's relative to the pattern foot In this case we've benefited from episodic -EPOs. We lose that ... then the other aspects may become dominant. That's not beyond the expectation given the three factors outlined above. We can certainly question whether these advanced lead telecons are true or not, but 'warm ups have been underperforming' loses out to a scaffolding change in the hemisphere. The other question, is that really true re warm ups? I don't recall any warm ups forecast in quite some time. I dunno - maybe I missed one..

Euro's buckin' for a heat burst at the end of the run 582 dm non-hydrostatic hgts nearing the latitude of NYC on Feb 4 is probably nearing some sort of metrical record in that regard. A few days, if even weeks ago, I cited 3 reasons ( conceptual ) why this February was suspect for a shock and awe warm up - I can't find it now but it's back there buried somewhere. It's worth it to try and forecast those as they are a distinctly new phenomenon to our climate, where Feb temp extremes have exceeding 70 if not approaching 80 F have occurred a few times since 2012. Basically it was: (La NIna spring climo) + ( propensity for warm surges in Feb in recent year's worth) + (present warm indicators) (A + B + C)/3 = plenty of justification for suspecting this February as hosting some warm air to put it nicely. The 28th - 2nd may be an inflection in the mass fields ...exiting a cold one. Good time to get some sort of event to take place

mm the fast flow is mitigation though. It's an expression of a negative interference - it's almost like there is a storm budget. If the wind is already raging at larger synoptic scales, there's less available to be expressed in the short scales where the storms are. The large scale is like hogging it all. hahaha. Just trying to metaphor the idea there, but something just did pop. We had a 4-7" event overnight. See the thing is, it's about mitigation - it's not about prevention. Probabilities of getting things to happen is lower, do to narrowing in 'needle thread' .. or basal shear reducing amplitude... salad of offsets. But that doesn't prevent every meal. So yeah...things can happen.

Jokes aside ... the tl;dr version of all that does qualitatively define this +PNA: biased west of the canonical spatial layout. We haven't actually seen a Dakota's ridge axis yet this winter, despite the PNA being numerically positive along a couple of periodicity ... This is part and parcel in why these troughs dampen, or phasing fails. That even after Xmas and just before NYE really should have been a beast but the nuanced/west aspect distorted the field and kept the wave spaces from interacting. Basically ... the west- biased PNA creates a bit of negative interference between the large scale, vs the short wave spaces where S/W propagate. Anyway, why the western ridge is always 20 or deg longitude west of where we need it ... I don't know why. It keeps rematerializing too far west. Maybe it does have something to do with the episodic -EPOs loading cold into an attribution environment - speculation but one thing that keeps jumping out at me is that in order to get cold enough for winter profile events, we can't seem to do it without unusually high gradient. What we need the gradient to be in the hydrostatic thickness, not as much in the non-hydrostatic heights - where the geostrophic velocities are created. This gradient is contributing to shear, and propagation speed of the S/W ... both of which are negative interference for cyclogenic proficiency... and also phasing aspect - well ...we've failed two phase beauts this season, which couldn't survive the model trek from the longer to short term ranges. You could see the phase gradually coming unraveled, day by day, until the whole event was limited.

Gotta look deeper than what's actually materialized on the guidance daily's pictorials/cinema ... ... we've been in a low frequency, but high velocity +PNA the last several weeks - in fact ... it's pretty much thus far defined at seasonal bias. Not sure what happens in February, but such is so to date. Anyway, that type of circulation mode does not lend to predicative skill. In fact, the extended teleconnector projections have been detecting rather later than normal, and/or correcting more so relative to systemic expectation - call it that... In this case, if you really want a popsicle headache ... we have a new +d(PNA) emerging during that period. It's also happening about a 2 or 3 day lag, downwind, of a -EPO. Timing a cold loading prior to one of these poorly modeled +deltas in the PNA ( which determinism is poor in low frequency circulation mode ), means plausibility exists for materialization couched in the time span in question. The index aspects were hinted yesterday, and now it's more coherent. It's also in all three EPS/GEF/GEP. See ... all the above tends to percolate while the operational models are off doing their own thing. Then at some point, the signal gets physically realized and then we see something in the daily d-drip dosing. LOL

Eyeing the 28th - 1 ..2nd as the next period of interest.

5.5" of champagne

lowest vis of the event 27 F 3” either S+ or heavy chalk dust

1.5” 28 F moderate chalk dust

Well … we got us a snowy night coating here so far. We’re getting periodic moderate bursting 29 F

I’d punt on the 24/25th … but not for manically enforced bipolar defensive downersism bs. There’s method, not madness, available. The telecon have delta poorly over the last 2 days while we were distracted by today’s system. I was checking things out late this afternoon and the support has even reversed. The spatial synoptic layout still shows some amplitude but the lack of numerical support typically presages wave space damping... “Correction tendency” is going the wrong way. Not sayin not to check - what else are we gonna do. lol.

this may be true ...but what in the moment exactly triggered this statement

39 one or two flakes every 10 foot apart. Just reaching rt 2

The 18z ICON looks like a well behaved solution. I realize the rep with this guidance doesn't pass the Lord of The Flies judgement ( haha ) but it looks pretty solid.

This is probably a well handled 6"er, won by the efforts of the American guidance types ... (sans the NAM and the "yellow" flag). Now with the late/recent arriving endorsement run by the top dawg model, which other than irrelevant minutia, was similar to the 12z GFS, this should be an easy call at this point. If it all did something else, that's a failure on the modeling and be done with it. There could be some lollypop 8" totals but I still have issues seeing this as a bigger QPF verifier due to constrains of A, storm translation speed; B, compression circulation mode capping aspects related to development potential. These limitations have been in place for days on this and that's not really changed.

Not that anyone asked me but I would sans other guidance in lieu of a 50/50 blend of the 12z operational GFS and Euro and call it a day. Discounting all predecessor runs, too, as they were deltas on their way to what became a pretty starkly clearly converged solution. Not sure why a glance at RGEM ever drives one to sullen regret over previous interpretations and so forth. Do yourselves a favor

Yeah agreed. Imho 24th/25th has been on the proverbial risk assessment desk for a long while. I remember Will and I bringing that up like 4 days ago? It's developing on a the inflection of a mass-field change. Events are preferential to those periods. Even this one tomorrow is on inflection - we mild today...transition tonight, boom tomorrow. It's matter of scaling. The deepest cold air earlier in the week is trying to roll off the continent. As it does ... heights tend to relax and the elephant sitting on a trampoline look becomes a little more flaccid. So.. a trough has been well timed in that space going back a few days ... more so, then at other times less, but keeps showing up. We'll see.