Typhoon Tip

heh … more likely warm seclusion but yeah. this is still precariously close to a similar 18z … just missed capture by a little

N/stream backed way off. still involved but slips the phase on this rendition.

Lol heard about thru the grapevine

Thanks… Yeah, these are interesting result comparisons but this isn’t ultimately what I was discussing. I was focused on modeling history and what was the most wholesale mechanically powerful thing ever modeled? I completely forgot about the superstorm of 93 though - I’m not sure that got this deep though. Nor did it have heights cord out quite as deep as what this is

This is going to sound rather bunnable , but just bear with me for a moment… the operational version has been wildly oscillating between a complete ghost, to these upper tier manic solutions and that’s supposed to be the higher resolution souped up variant of the ensemble system. in other words more stable. firstly, considering we’re beyond 200 hours there is no real responsibility to accuracy here to be fair. still, the wild variability of the operational version does not lend very much confidence that the ensemble system knows what the fuck is going on out there either frankly that goes for all models at present time.. the only confidence inspiring aspect as far as i’m concerned is still the intense signal beacon that’s been looming between the eighth and the 12th of the month for so long - confident if at least a favorable time in that sense. it’s just that when you pop off at giant solution like this in the middle of a strong probability region of time … should at least take notice.

Yeah, I thought about that storm; but this one surpasses that as modeled. I’m not really sure about the actual DP/dt of the Cleveland superbomb - that’s like some kind of buried ultra nerd data fantasy vital scoring. I guess I could search for awhile … but I’m speaking specifically to the model governing parametrics in the wholesales synopsis across the continent. I’ve never seen such a massive SPV plumbed deeper than 500 dam - executing such a high proficiency subsuming scenario on top of it is really in totality just beyond the extraordinary. it’s really just for ogling model potentials tho … doubt very much that will pass the reality test.

it's not a point of analysis because anyone thinks that run is happening - we've already stated it's unlikely. .. . but, what i said is right - that low, in that depiction, produces a pan-dimensional, very high end wind problem.

won't load for me. but maybe yeah. i mean it's not a challenge - i really don't know

huh? kidding right? you can't take a 971 mb low 20 mi s of montauk point, drop it another 20 mb and stall it over nashua nh before resuming a motion ne without the entire surrounding planetary atmospheric mass denisity collapsing into that pressure well like st helen's landslide... not without a crippling grid reconstruction requirement. decapitating trees. roofs sent along like a frisbee show doing skipping tricks.

i seriously can't find anything like that in history... i wonder if there's ever been anything like that in 'model history'

i know - that was not intended to say it's category 5 equivalence.. but those kind of d(p) are more common with extraordinary events, principle

pivotal's depiction is 971 to 951 in 6 hours...so that's 40 mb in 12 hours. that's competing with a few of these cat 5 hurricane observed ri events as of late. - just a little perspective

yeah ..that too. snow isn't really a part of that solution for sne

i'm wondering if there's a historical catalogue of actual model runs ? i suspect if there ever is/were, this is among the very most extraordinary, if not the goat, virtual prognostic from an operational/purposeful geophysical processing. closed sub-500 dm mid level heights by a couple of contours s, of nyc latitude, as a result of 90 deg neg tilting ? really that's a scenario where any hyperbole is can't be dismissed as merely such. okay, i get it but responsible thinking is that most of civility can't heat their homes without electricity - either direct use, or a peripheral to thermal generation. i suspect most in here have alternate options but ... mm maybe try for some empathy or at least acknowledgement as to how one purports themself. just a suggestion - it's about all i'm going to say on this. the model run has limited chance for being realized as the wholesale synoptic manifold of parametrics, in time, strains too much credibility. if we take 1/2 of the ghosted solutions earlier, and average them against this one...that's likely closer to the reality - which would be a major if so..so no loss there.

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this. trust me. you don't.

'legendary model run' in any case. ...i could see at 190 or so hours that this was big trouble solution incoming... snow aside, that's causing regional scale problems for the whole spectrum

i guess one school of though ... apply the 30% reduction rule on model magnification and this may be possible on earth. jesus christ.

get your affairs in order

it's too overwhelmingly powerful - probably a ceiling depiction here. physical phantom. as is, it'd take any coastal low and drive in nw into ontario so hard that sands the apps down to plain with that fucking beast of quasar (258)

massive changes on the 18z gfs wrt the 10th-ish potential thru 220 hrs

right not attempting to condemn naos hahaha. no, i mean what you're saying - yeah one has to nuance the field and it's highly circumstantial. if a nuetral pna is in play you don't want -2 sd nao over the western limb, or your bomb axis is va beach. if you got a +pna, lift the nao in latitude so you have some up-under spacing. there's millions of these ... snow flakes of these different relative strengths between competing mass fields. i've often thought there's like intervals in music with the nao. ( oh jesus - ) ... the 3rd and 5th tones of the octave are harmonic. so, you want a '3' pna and a '5' nao, say - metaphorically speaking. but you can't have a 3 pna and a diminished 7 or it sounds like the charts smell: shitty

anyway ... despite my commiserating over the last hour, that's all it is. just empathizing with how i'm sure the jaded spirits cry out in pain. haha. in the more here and now terms, we're talking about injecting a wave space into an arena that is ostensibly controlled by an nao that ( whoops) hasn't even materialized yet - neither has. the nao, or the former wave inject. to reiterate, nao's are notoriously handled badly beyond d6 or 7 - that's in general... they're modulating details such as how much specific suppression ( or not ...), is all but idiosyncratic and cannot really be assessed at this range using anything other than the quantum computing cores that are ... 10 years or something from coming online. those will eventually be the next major step forward in deterministic meteorology - beyond which ... provided tech keeps evolving and humanity is still around, the "weather modification grid" finaly comes on line and all of this is rendered completely futile to even engage in the pastime - heh. my official position on the 6/7th is 'guarded pessimism' - which means i lean less, but am far from sold that the nao doesn't back stab the 7 day forecast, ...like that's never happened before

not to pick a sensy moment to jiggle the chigger but ... done been complaining about that and the nao's misconception/false application, since it started being wrongly used to mark-up social media reputations back in the early 2000s.

if what you're saying there is honest? ... i betcha your susceptible tho - when i asked, '... going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early? ' i was thinking something more along the lines of an attribute ass-kicker cc event at a seasonal level. like the first shot across the bow for 2050's future. where we get one now...then another in 8 seasons...then another in 6 seasons after that, 4 seasons after that... then they're happening ever 3rd season...then boom. we don't essentially have feb and mar anymore. those that are winter coveters and/or can't control being offended by this mere jest, are going to get incensed here - even though i've already declared this as not intending to inflame ... - but, if the globe is warming ... at some point, the globe has to actually get warm that's pretty much unsalable logic - it's just a matter of ironing out when. but that sort of creeping in return rate increasing frequency model above is the principle of the thing - not saying that's it. but it's like that. you lose a bit first, until you realize at some point out in time that you've lost altogether. or gain in geological history, if/when going the other way... but this ain't that. where the hell am i going with this... oh, so pretend this is the first one... remember back in 2016 - 2019 there were some really weird early season shock and awe heat bursts in february and march's? what if not one, but three happened over a 40 day period, with general base line thawed earth in between. march 2012 was a staggering +10 ... talking +12 to even +15. this is the way we're likely to ever get our "43C heat wave" - i've come to find ( another digression ...) that we seem to hurt our winters more than make our summers hotter at our particular depot of earth's surface. it's just circumstantially permanent for where we are in relation to the continent and ocean.. we end up too souped up with dps to top end the thermometer like they can other places of similar latitude around the nh. it's like being born with plumbosis genes and trying to win a beauty contest - not likely... anyway, i bet if we start getting that done, you'd be buy-able to just have at it.

me neither. all do respect to the die -hards... not intending to inflame outrage merely for having a different druthers and perspective on matters than whomever you are. buuuut... i've made no mystery in the past over being an early check-out guy anyway. years that such definitely. years that even do this gently stroking the milk weed while leaving the sauce inside ? double dong f* that! i've always preferred the front ender winters. which this is rapidly failing ... need to get a decent dawg to bite here pretty soon, and then we'll reassess any buy-back in ( talkin psycho babble on that specific aspect...). but typically by february and early March, when our biggest bombs in history have always occurred ( hahahaha) i'm pretty much zip on patience and just sessune ( is that a word ? seriously - ) ... just assume or whatever that the seasonality will go to a place i know it will never go.